It was quite a year in East Lansing for Mark Dantonio and his Michigan State Spartans. A year after winning the Cotton Bowl in a thriller, MSU won the Big Ten East with narrow wins over Ohio State and Michigan and edged Iowa in the B1G Title game to advance to the College Football Playoff.

Then came the humiliating 38-0 loss to eventual champ Alabama. That wound up being the last look at a host of future NFL players. As many as 10 Spartans will hear their names called over draft weekend in Chicago, and a smattering of others will at least show up in NFL camps.

I’ve seen a great deal of these prospects over the years, including in person in their ’15 opener at Western Michigan and their loss to No. 1 Ohio State in ’14. The only games in the last two years I haven’t watched at least half of are the wins over Air Force and Purdue last fall and wins over Eastern Michigan and Wyoming in ’14. I brushed up with recent reviews of the Oregon, Ohio State and Michigan games from both years, as well as the Maryland and Penn State games in 2015.

Connor Cook--the quarterback is one of the most derisive, divisive prospects in the entire draft class. Blessed with prototypical size for the position at 6’4” and 220 pounds, Cook threw for over 6300 yards and 48 TDs in the last two years in the Spartans’ pro-style offense. He led his team to comeback wins in huge games several times, showing a fearless cool in the clutch.

The arm strength is above average. Cook showed several times he can thread the needle in tight downfield coverage despite not having a true rocket launcher of a right shoulder. He can deliver strikes from the pocket, throwing with a strong base and an economic over-the-top release. The three-year starter is great on play action too. You can see all the positive attributes on this throw against Oregon:

Alas, there are warts. Cook is streaky with his accuracy, and he has a number of games where he missed several open throws. The game I attended in Kalamazoo is a great example; Cook completed less than 50% of his passes, often missing high and outside despite having open receivers and minimal pass rush. Cook completed less than 60% of his passes in 14 of his final 26 starts. Given the average NFL completion percentage is above 63% and the typical college QB loses between 3-5% off their average from that level, his accuracy is an issue.

Then there are the character questions. Many analysts have gone overboard here, coming out and saying Cook is “despised” by his teammates. They cite the fact he wasn’t named a captain as a senior and hearsay evidence from anonymous teammates and scouts. After reading some you’d think he was Hinckley, Ohio’s (and Revere HS) other most famous native son, Jeffrey Dahmer.  

In talking to several folks in and around the program, I’ve consistently heard a different story. Cook is indeed not popular--by his own choice--off the field. He keeps largely to his own circle and can be self-absorbed in a non-malicious way. Both teammates and coaches played up his leadership between the white lines, and it’s obvious when watching the games in person he is in command and respected. Yet he’s not “one of the guys” and likely never will be.

He didn’t help himself by declining a Senior Bowl invitation, a golden opportunity for him to clear up any misconceptions about his character and his throwing ability. While the detractors have valid points with both, they’re wildly overblown.

Cook is the most NFL-ready quarterback in this class. He can effectively manipulate the defense with his eyes and positioning. He can thread the needle and throw covered receivers open. His pocket agility and awareness are plusses. He lacks the developmental upside of many other QBs in this class, but he’s essentially a finished product entering the league. That will appeal to some teams (say, Houston and Los Angeles) but not others (say, Cleveland and Dallas). The subpar completion percentage is my biggest concern. To compare him with recent Spartans QBs, he’s a better prospect than Drew Stanton and Brian Hoyer, and his NFL ceiling is equivalent to the Kirk Cousins who led Washington to the NFC East title in 2015. That’s worth a second-round pick for me but Cook won’t last that long.

Draft projection:  Late first round

Shilique Calhoun--Calhoun is an interesting study. You’ll be hard-pressed to find anyone who thinks the 6’5”, 255-pound defensive end will wind up being a “bad” NFL player or a bust. Yet it’s also hard to find anyone trumpeting great success for him either, even though he’s a three-time All-American who racked up 27 sacks and almost 50 tackles for loss in his Spartans career.

All of the tools are there to some degree. Calhoun is functionally strong; just looking at him in person I guessed he weighed 270 with all his muscle and big frame. He has excellent body control and overall athleticism for an edge rusher. Long, powerful arms and economic movement don’t always go in hand, but they do with No. 89 in green and white. Calhoun can bend the edge but also set it with authority. He’s got a high football IQ and the quick reactions to what he sees. He produced while lining up on either side, and he has the athletic wherewithal to play as a 4-3 end or a 3-4 pass-rushing OLB.  There are plays where he simply overwhelms the offense.

That’s the positive, and there’s a whole lot there. So how come so few think Calhoun is destined for Pro Bowls? There are real reasons here, too. Foremost is that Calhoun just doesn’t bring the intensity all the time. To quote an AFC North scout I watched the Western Michigan game with, “he’s too content being blocked”. This shows up all over his film, notably when he’s playing with a tight end on his side. It’s as if Calhoun is satisfied tying up the TE and the tackle for a couple of seconds instead of trying to fight through and do more.

He also doesn’t play “to the pain”, to quote The Princess Bride. If he stuck with basketball--a sport he excelled as a youth--the knock on him would be he isn’t a glass-eater. His hand usage can be slow and there is often little violence other than the initial swipe or rip. Some coaches will believe they can unleash the Kraken inside him, and that may be true. But I see a player who is what he is, a skilled athlete and solid contributor but never a featured guy or a star. It’s also worth noting he’ll be 24 as a rookie. Calhoun’s an NFL-ready second-round pick who can be a strong but not dominant presence for a good team. I like him more than I did Nate Orchard, last year’s 51st overall pick to Cleveland, but not as much as Preston Smith, who went 38th overall to Washington. Calhoun’s going to be a good NFL player for a long time.

Draft projection: Mid 2nd-early 3rd round

Jack Conklin--to quote Bullet For My Valentine, “you want a battle? here’s a war!”. I’m currently at war with many Michigan State fans over the left tackle, and the battle lines are pretty clear. I simply do not see anything more than an average NFL right tackle out of Conklin. The fans believe he’s destined for multiple Pro Bowls as a brick wall of a left tackle.

Spartans fans, as well as some in the draft media who have taken a shine to Conklin, love to trumpet things like:

  • Ohio State moved Joey Bosa away from him like a scared little kitten
  • He manhandled DeForest Buckner in the Oregon game
  • He’s tougher than a leftover $2 steak

They have zero interest in the counterarguments. Ohio State moved Bosa around against everyone, and did so against MSU to attack the weakness on the other side. Conklin indeed bested Buckner but the Duck DE had some wins too. And Gabe Carimi and Jordan Mills were both equally tough, it didn’t help them in the NFL.

Conklin is very good against bull rushers and guys who line up inside the 6-technique (his outside shoulder). He doesn’t cede ground and thrives on close-quarter combat, where his toughness and upper body strength can be utilized to maximum extent. He consistently wins against defenders with leverage issues like Buckner or Baylor’s Shawn Oakman, both taller pass rushers. I’ll go so far as to concede Conklin is probably the best down-blocking (to his inside) tackle in this draft. His tenacity and leg drive while engaged in the run game is going to make his NFL OL coach very happy.

Speed absolutely kills Conklin. His plodding footwork, tendency to lunge and lean into contact and generally slower-than-expected reaction times all jump off the multitude of game tapes I’ve watched. In short,

 

Everyone saw what Von Miller did in the Super Bowl. Moreover, teams that run a 3-4 defense or the Wide-9 technique of a 4-3 pass rushing set are going to create all kinds of space and paths for speedier rushers to embarrass guys like Conklin. You can mitigate it somewhat by putting him on the right side and/or covering him with a tight end, but if you’re taking a tackle in the top 35 you shouldn’t need him to require help on over 60% of his assignments.

That’s my take. It’s not a popular one, certainly not here in Michigan. Conklin is a decent value as a right tackle prospect in the third round. I wouldn’t touch him any higher than that.

Draft projection: 20-35 overall

Jack Allen--I’ll admit to a bias here; Jack Allen has been one of my favorite players in this draft to evaluate. He was the bedrock of the offensive line, the leader in both example and word. Allen gets 100% out of his body on every snap. He’s crafty, scrappy and intelligent. Heck, he even filled in for an injured Conklin at left tackle and played better than him to boot.

 

Allen was an incredibly effective college football player in a very demanding conference for a pro-style offense laden with NFL talent. In 2015 he became the first first-team All-American lineman from Michigan State since Flozell Adams. He acquitted himself nicely during Senior Bowl practices, too. Unfortunately, the weigh-in was unkind.

His arms were shorter than expected at 31.75”. At 6’1” and 297 he’s a smaller center, and he doesn’t pack the power. Those are very real strikes against him. That’s why watching the tape is so important.

Allen is quite agile for a center. Heck, Allen even showed he still has some running back moves. What really stands out is his ability to quickly reset his base. Bigger, more powerful interior defenders can bull him, but Allen is fantastic at squaring up, gathering his feet and recovering the leverage. He’s almost never beaten without enough of a fightback to give his QB time to escape. His work in the run game is a bit trickier. He plays the angles quite well, but he must win by beating the defender to the point of attack and squaring his base is imperative. That’s a lot easier to do at the college level than the NFL. His weakness here was exposed by the NFL talent along Alabama’s front line.

I project Allen to be a solid NFL starter at center. He’s definitely limited by size, and unlike most interior line prospects he can only play center instead of both guard and center. He earned a late 2nd-early 3rd round grade from me but I suspect he falls deeper into the draft. The NFL, like most women, cares more about length than the average man would like to know.

Draft projection: 4th-5th round

Arjen Colquhoun--if you’re looking for a late-blooming sleeper at cornerback, the man with the seemingly unpronounceable name just might be your guy. The Canadian native was a reserve until his senior season, and in his first game he struggled mightily with Western Michigan’s Corey Davis, who is one of the best all-around receivers entering the 2016 college season. 

The more he played, the better he got. By the end of his senior season, Colquhoun was one of the most consistent cover corners in the Big Ten. He broke up 10 passes, picked off two others and proved he knew how to smartly use his 6’1” length. The recovery speed is excellent; he will run no worse than 4.43 at Michigan State’s pro day, and he’s far more agile on the move than former teammate Trae Waynes. He’s a diligent worker who patiently bided his time and kept grinding for his chance. Coaches and teammates loved him, and opposing receivers learned quickly to respect him. By the Penn State game (MSU’s regular-season finale) he was running routes for the receivers and was rewarded with an athletic INT in the end zone.

There is a lot of potential to work with here, an impressive athlete who showed he can play when given the chance. I don’t know if Colquhoun will get drafted--much depends on his official workout numbers--but I know legit 6’1”, 210-pound corners who can run like him will be given chances. I’d take him in the 5th round on that potential, and he’s a player who could blossom.

Draft projection: 6th round-priority free agent

Aaron Burbridge--he only made my preseason watch list because of my proximity to the university. The senior from the Detroit area had just 51 catches for 551 yards in 2013-14 combined and was a perfectly average 6’ and 195 pounds. Yet Burbridge quickly became Cook’s go-to target and in the process emerged as a viable NFL prospect.

He exploded for 85 catches and 1258 yards, more than the other wideouts on the roster combined on both fronts. Even though defenses focused on him, Burbridge still reliably presented himself as a target and demonstrated exceptional body control and soft hands. The team had him for 4 drops on 134 targets; I saw two drops in my viewings, albeit both at highly inopportune moments.

The biggest question with Burbridge is, did he thrive because of his own skill or more on sheer opportunity? My sense is much more the former than latter, but the latter shouldn’t be discounted either. His speed, footwork and agility are all average for a receiver by NFL standards. His hands (8”) and wingspan (73”) are both substandard, in the case of the hands a very real issue for NFL teams. During Senior Bowl practices, which I attended in person, he struggled to separate against most corners in drills. Yet he also caught the ball away from his body and secured the reception better than just about anyone else in Mobile.

And that’s where this evaluation takes a real turn. I don’t have a definitive opinion on Burbridge as a pro. He’s not going to be a star, but I can see him being a valuable contributor, a good second banana opposite a scene-stealing star on the other side. I can also see him being too nondescript and just sort of fading away into waiver-wire obscurity like a T.J. Graham (Bills 3rd rounder in 2012). That’s a fifth or sixth-round pick to me, as I’d rather risk a third or fourth on a player with higher upside but perhaps a lower floor too.

Draft projection: 6th- 7th round

Lawrence Thomas--I’ll relay the guts of a conversation I had with an NFL offensive line coach while watching Thomas during drills at the Senior Bowl. We witnessed Thomas blast off the line and quickly win the outside, but he opted to try and blast back through the tackle, who had enough recovery balance to snuff him out. It happened in team drills too; Thomas would flash great initial athleticism but have no real idea how to use it.

“Have a plan, son”. That’s what Cowboys Defensive Coordinator Rod Marinelli, his position coach during Senior Bowl week and one of the best DL coaches in the world, kept exhorting of Thomas. The OL coach and I took that statement and ran with it. Thomas doesn’t seem to ever have a plan beyond the exact moment he’s in on the football field. When I went back and watched more games, I had that in the back of my mind. Sure enough, it held true. He’s a big hombre at 6’3” and 281 (down from his listed playing weight of 305) and has the strength and coordinated athleticism to play either tackle or end, but Thomas doesn’t do enough with his physical talents.

Perhaps it’s a function of playing so many different roles. A highly-touted prospect at middle linebacker, he began his Spartans career as Le’Veon Bell’s blocking fullback. He moved back to defense, bulked up after an injury and turned into a pretty effective strongside end opposite Calhoun after playing primarily inside as a junior. His run defense is very good, harkening back to his seek-and-destroy LB in HS. Unlike many big ends, he actually tackles instead of just hitting runners.

The NFL needs guys like that, but it never seems to really want them. Because he doesn’t seem to have much of a plan as a pass rusher, NFL teams are likely to shy away in favor of more sizzle on the edge. Steak wins games but it doesn’t sell well at draft time. For my money, Lawrence Thomas is a fine, scheme-diverse No. 3 defensive end. That’s worth a 4th round pick. In the NFL’s likely mind, they’re apt to buy into a higher-ceiling pass rusher than invest a pick in a reserve, run-stuffing end. That’s not his fault.

Draft projection: 7th round-UDFA

Joel Heath--As Lawrence Thomas moved more outside, Heath bulked up and slid to tackle. Sublimating his personal gory for the betterment of the team was fantastic for the Spartans, but the move likely watered down his NFL future. His length and power were plusses on the edge, but inside he plays too tall and lacks the base power many teams want. His Combine measurement will help define his future. He was listed at 6’6” and 296, up from 260 as a sophomore. If he’s really that heavy, he’s going to have to play the 3 or 4 technique and that doesn’t play to his strengths. He’s not a pass rusher with 4.5 sacks (none solo) and 7 QB hurries in his final two seasons. If he’s in the 285 range, he’s a great candidate to play as a 5 technique in an odd front. His length, tenacity and quickness to locate the ball would fit nicely in that role. If he’s in the 270-280 range, he’s back in business as a 4-3 LDE. If so, he was the better talent in my eye than Thomas in the same role and is worth a late pick.

Draft projection: 7th round-UDFA

RJ Williamson--a leggy safety with good closing burst and a nose for the ball, Williamson missed more than half of his senior season with a biceps injury. Because of that, he didn’t get a chance to prove himself much in coverage. Few will question his tenacity as a chase-down run defender. Discipline in coverage is another matter. When I watched the Western Michigan game in person, I saw him too passive and slow to read his keys in his coverage responsibility. He toughed it out in the College Football Playoff against Alabama and then the Shrine Game, showing his competitiveness. Alas, he measured at just 5’11” in St. Pete, a far cry from the 6’2” listing. He definitely looks and plays bigger, but that’s true of other safeties who are, in fact, bigger than him. He’ll need to make a big splash on special teams.

Draft projection: 7th round-UDFA

Donavon Clark--Clark is a guy to root for. He’s a somewhat limited prospect as a heavy-limbed guard, but the Cincinnati native is an engaging guy with a bright-eyed personality. He looks awkward when he moves, and when he stands his knees touch and his feet aren’t close to touching. His mother is battling MS. I couldn’t help but like him when I talked to him during Shrine Game week, even though on the field he had some issues with staying engaged and dealing with swift movers. Clark has a high football IQ that maximizes his effort. His slow-firing hands and relatively poor lateral agility make him likely nothing more than a backup guard at the next level. Clark played some tackle as part of Sparty’s injury-plagued line, but he’s strictly an interior lineman in the NFL. A power-oriented attack should find some use for him.

Draft projection: UDFA

Darien Harris--an undersized linebacker at just 5’11” and 221 pounds, Harris needed to prove he was a coverage ace during Shrine Game practices. It didn’t happen. Others in St. Pete who had several inches and pounds of muscle on Harris looked better. He got some looks at inside backer and actually showed some pass-rushing acumen. But at his size, that role just isn’t feasible. It would help if he didn’t have so many drag-down tackles or ones where he was the second guy there. Granted it’s hard to beat Riley Bullough (a player I really like for next year) to the ball, but again at Harris’ size it’s something he had to do.

Draft projection: UDFA