One more game before football goes dark on the field for more than six months. It’s a somber thought, one which should make you cherish Sunday’s matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos.

Top billing rightly goes to the quarterbacks, Cam Newton and Peyton Manning. No Super Bowl has ever featured more divergent skills or personalities than these two, and the story line of the all-time great playing his final hurrah against the brash young upstart is straight out of Hollywood.

Digging past the shiny cover on that book, it’s clearly just a fairy tale. Manning has been one of the least effective, least efficient quarterbacks in the NFL all year. Newton, while also not being very efficient, is the presumptive MVP because of his effectiveness despite a rather middling supporting cast.

I love the yards per play statistic. For me, it’s the most telling barometer of offensive and defensive effectiveness. I know some statheads and analytical gurus will disagree, but teams who are better per play on both offense and defense win a whole lot more than they lose.

What keeps this game interesting is that the Denver defense is the best unit on either side of the ledger:

If Denver is going to win, it will be on the backs of a fantastic defense. Here’s the thing, though: that defense wins by having its front overwhelming the offensive front on the other side. And that’s very difficult to accomplish against Carolina.

Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware are both great edge rushers. Miller might be the best in the league. Pro Football Focus had him second to Khalil Mack, but Miller led all edge rushers in QB sacks + hits + hurries per their scoring with 82 (technically tied with Mack, and SEA DT Michael Bennett had 84). Ware shares time with Shaq Barrett, a rising star who will cash in this offseason. That means they’ve got depth on the edge.

The Broncos also have very good players in Derek Wolfe, Malik Jackson and Vance Walker. It’s a deep, highly skilled and well-coordinated group that can shut down opposing offenses before they ever get started.

The way to beat them is by standing up to that front and not letting them make plays. Guess what Cam Newton and the Carolina offensive line do so well…?

Neither starting tackle, Mike Remmers or Michael Oher, has allowed a single QB hit on Newton in the playoffs. Guards Trai Turner and Andrew Norwell, are both above average at their spots and growing into an outstanding young tandem. Turner figures to be a Pro Bowl fixture for years going forward, and Norwell has quickly gone from undrafted afterthought in 2014 to one of the most technically sound interior linemen in the league.

Even if the line does get beat, the Cam factor kicks in. He can take a big hit and shrug it off. He’s accurate when he throws under pressure and even while being hit. He has the speed and vision to get away from the rush.

Moreover, his receivers know to keep working down the field. While the Panthers do not have a legit No. 1 or really even No. 2 wideouts, they have guys who are quite effective in working with Newton and his particular set of skills.

Denver’s pass coverage is solid. That’s probably underselling them, but the point is Aqib Talib, Bradley Roby, Chris Harris & Co. are very good at handling receivers more talented than what they’ll face in Carolina’s group. But Newton’s ability to work around trouble and force the coverage into unconventional positions is a different challenge.

Along with that, the Broncos have nobody who can replicate even close to those sorts of situations in practices. Peyton Manning is probably the least athletic QB of the modern era, and Brock Osweiler isn’t a major scrambler either.

For that primary reason, I think Carolina’s offense will find big play success. It likely won’t happen much, but it might only take a handful of successes because I don’t see Denver’s pedestrian offense winning many battles with the Panthers defense.

Manning is an all-time legend, and both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas are far more dangerous than anyone catching passes for Carolina. Tight end Owen Daniels has proven a trusty asset too, notably against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. So the Broncos do have the ability to make plays…if Manning is up for the challenge.

For that to happen, he’ll need both time and the run game to set up the play-action. But Carolina’s defense is near as good as Denver’s, and the Bronco OL isn’t near as good as its counterpart. They also don’t grind run yards very well. C.J. Anderson is a big-play RB, but his rushing profile is wildly hit-or-miss. He’ll get 45 yards on two carries, then pick up 16 on his next 11. Carolina won’t have to commit extra resources to stopping him.

This is where the awesome Carolina linebacking corps comes into play. Luke Kuechly is the game’s preeminent tackler. Thomas Davis is great in coverage but also swift to respond to screens, draws and quick slants. They can force Manning to hold the ball an extra count, or not overplay the run and be in better position to handle the play action routes.

For those reasons, the Panthers are the pick.

Carolina 23, Denver 16

Now for the silliness of the game, the prop bets.

Will the announcers (the bland Jim Nantz and the insufferably incoherent Phil Simms) mention “dab” or “dabbing” more than two times? God I hope not!

Will Mike Carey be wrong about a challenge? Do bears crap in the woods?

Will John Elway be shown on TV more than 2.5 times? This one seems like a lock for the over.

Which song from their own catalog will Coldplay play first during halftime? I only know a couple of their songs and honestly can’t distinguish between which one has the peppier piano or whinier singing. They’re just not my bag. So in looking at the list, I went for the one with the lowest odds, Adventure of a Lifetime.

Will Buffalo Wild Wings sell over 12 million wings on Sunday? They’re pretty darn good to eat and a fun place to watch the game, but I just don’t see 12 million.

Will either backup QB take a snap? Really don’t see this one happening.

Who will win Super Bowl MVP? Cam Newton is the obvious choice. If you think Denver is going to win then the smart money is on Von Miller. But I like to go off the beaten path. I’m picking Panthers LB Thomas Davis. An interception and a forced fumble will swing the voting his way.