Last Week: 12-4, a strong rebound week to push the seasonal forecast to 135-89.

It’s Christmas Eve. For those of the Christian faith, Merry Christmas! You can help ring in the holiday with some NFL action, kicking off a weekend with a few important games and some that are for die-hards only. You might be better served just watching Die Hard, the best Christmas movie of all time…

Thursday Night

- San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-5.5): These two teams could very well be sharing a stadium in Los Angeles next year. Sort of sucks the life out of a matchup that will be played while those of you with kids will be busy doing Christmas things. I’m not gonna lie, I won’t see one second of this one. I think the Chargers left it all on the San Diego turf last week and have nothing left.

Raiders 27, Chargers 12

Saturday Night

- Washington at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5): The NFC East title is on the line in Philly. Even though the Ethnic Slurs have struggled away from Washington, I do like them because of the biggest matchup advantage by either team.

That would be the Kirk Cousins-led passing offense against the dilapidated Eagles pass defense. Cousins leads the league in completion percentage, and since Desean Jackson came back the big play element has proven more of a factor. The Eagles could be without two more starters on the back end and they already lack talent when everyone is healthy. As long as the WAS OL holds up, I think Cousins will do enough to lead the visitors to the NFC East crown…and a quick playoff loss to Seattle.

Ethnic Slurs 37, Eagles 33

Sunday Games

- Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+7.5): The Falcons broke their brutal losing streak last week, but the football gods continue to rain down on them with golden showers. A shower accident just sidelined their RB…

 

Those kind of things just don’t happen to teams that are going to stop undefeated Carolina. Even if the Panthers do opt to spot some starters with rest, they’re not losing to the Falcons.

Panthers 31, Falcons 13 

- Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-5.5): I’ve stuck with the equation that no Tony Romo = Dallas loss all season. I’ve only been wrong once and I’m not about to waver from that solid math now.

Bills 24, Cowboys 21

- Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5): I have no feeling for this game, so I turned to my 10-year-old son Layne for help. His take:

  • Jameis Winston is better than Jay Cutler already
  • The heat in Tampa could be a problem for Chicago because they expect cold this time of year
  • Lavonte David is a good foil for Matt Forte and Forte is all the Bears have on offense

He talked me into the home team.

Bucs 28, Bears 20 

- Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5): Johnny Football vs. a surging Chiefs defense. I’ve seen this movie before. It doesn’t end well for Mr. Manziel, although he has been better than his vociferous critics will like to acknowledge.

Chiefs 28, Browns 13 

- San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (-8.5): Since I predicted on-air on ESPN 96.1 in Grand Rapids that the Lions will win 50-6, I feel somewhat obligated to stick by that hot take. I proclaimed that on Monday, before I watched the Lions nearly blow a 28-3 lead.

I still think the Lions win. Handily. Matthew Stafford is playing quite well, and the offensive line in front of him is gelling. They ran for over 150 yards in New Orleans, though any accomplishments against that uncoordinated defense deserve a hearty asterisk.

What makes me extra confident in the Lions, even though they’re travelling across the country on a short week, is the play of their young corners. America is finally catching on that Darius Slay is a legit No. 1 CB, but Monday night was a coming out party for very promising rookie slot guy Quandre Diggs. With second-year Nevin Lawson proving he belongs on the outside opposite Slay, the Lions have a confident, aggressive trio of corners. They all tackle well, too. I just don’t see San Francisco beating them for a big play more than once. That won’t be enough to keep up with an inconsistent but explosive Detroit offense.

Lions 36, 49ers 20

- Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+2.5): With Marcus Mariota out, the Titans turn to Zach Mettenberger at QB. He’s a complete stylistic divergence from his rookie usurper: immobile, panicky, great at throwing deep but terrible on short routes.

It’s that last one that should scare the Texans. As long as they don’t give up the big plays, it’s real hard to see Tennessee finding much success offensively. Houston has proven vulnerable to the deep ball when the pass rush doesn’t get home. Houston has QB issues of its own, enough that I think the Titans might play spoiler. That’s not the forecast here, but it’s a 40% chance and the winds are blowing that way.

Texans 18, Titans 16

- Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (-2.5): Here’s what we know about the Colts--their offense with Matt Hasselbeck has been figured out, and neither the aged QB nor the lame duck coaching staff has any idea how to fix that. The Dolphins mailed it in last week in San Diego, however, and I don’t see any reason to think why this one hasn’t already been signed, sealed and delivered to the “L” column either.

Colts 23, Dolphins 17 

- New England Patriots at New York Jets (+3.5): The Jets desperately need this game, as well as a little help, to reclaim their stake on the final AFC Wild Card spot. They’re playing at home, they’re relatively healthy and they have a defense that theoretically matches up well with the injury-ravaged Patriots offense.

You might recall the first meeting, a 30-23 Pats win. New England only ran the ball 9 times and the Jets were bad in the red zone. I think the Jets offense is more effective this time around, but I’m not sure the Patriots will do much on the ground again. I’ll side with little brother here.

Jets 21, Patriots 20

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+10.5): Normally one of the NFL’s most intense rivalries, the current dilapidated state of the Ravens takes a lot of the sizzle out. From T-Sizzle (Terrell Suggs) to Joe Flacco to Justin Forsett to Steve Smith, pretty much every Raven of national prominence is on IR. The Steelers desperately need the win to keep that final AFC Wild Card spot. I worry a little that Baltimore will rise up and pull off the unexpected by keeping this close, but only a little. I suspect Mike Tomlin’s Steelers will have no mercy.

Steelers 40, Ravens 16

- Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (-3.5): Drew Brees tore his plantar fascia in Monday night’s loss to Detroit. The Saints are 4-10, about to clean out the stale coaching staff. Yet he is hellbent on playing…

 

I don’t question his testicular fortitude or his desire to play, but someone please save Brees from himself. We all respect you, Drew. Don’t do this to yourself.

Jaguars 34, Saints 28

- Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5): Arguably the best matchup of the weekend is a real test for the Green Bay offense. Even though the Cardinals suffered a major loss with Tyrann Mathieu’s torn ACL, they still have a feisty, aggressive and athletic defense. The Packers are inconsistent up front and struggle to run the ball when the opponent is expecting it. Their receivers cannot get open, period.

I think the underrated aspect here is Green Bay’s defense. They’re good, good enough to stymie MVP candidate Carson Palmer. The emergence of David Johnson, who catapulted many a fantasy team last week, makes Arizona more diverse, but I like how the Packers front matches up.

In the end the clouds say Arizona, but Aaron Rodgers just might be the ultimate butterfly effect. It will likely only take one critical flap of his great wings to alter the outcome. I’m just not sure any of his receivers have enough in their antennae to capitalize.

Cardinals 27, Packers 24

- St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5): The Rams tend to be much more competitive within the NFC West, but with the way the Seahawks have been rolling it’s hard to see them staying within two touchdowns. In fact, if Seattle gets to two touchdowns, the game is over. No way the Rams offense is putting up more than that. None.

Seahawks 27, Rams 6

- New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5): Losing Odell Beckham for his well-deserved suspension takes away the primary option for victory against a Minnesota defense that is held together with athletic tape at the moment. A win wraps up a playoff berth for the Vikings, and I think they get it done at home.

Vikings 29, Giants 24

Monday Night

- Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-3.5): This game is essentially for the AFC’s No. 2 seed and a desperately-needed first round bye for the winner.

Of course, it features two backup QBs who have had some initial success but lack a track record in pressure situations. In cases like this, I tend to lean toward the team with the better running game, offensive line and playmakers. Alas, the running game and playmaker ledgers are pretty even. Cincinnati has the better offensive line, but Denver has a better coverage game…

…and so it goes back to the quarterbacks. Denver’s Brock Osweiler has more experience and gets the benefit of playing at home. I’ve been pretty impressed with AJ McCarron of the Bengals so far, but he hasn’t seen anything like this Denver defense before.

Broncos 24, Bengals 20