Stars of Week 15
QB: Cam Newton, CAR: 25-45, 340 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs
RB: David Johnson, ARZ: 29 carries, 187 yards, 3 TDs
WR: Antonio Brown, PIT: 16 catches, 189 yards, 2 TDs
TE: Jordan Reed, WAS: 7 catches, 84 yards, 2 TDs
We had superlative fantasy performances from several players during this key fantasy playoff weekend. Cam Newton predictably thrashed the weak Giants’ pass defense, and continues his campaign for the top QB to be drafted in 2016. Key waiver wire pickup David Johnson ran roughshed against an enigmatic Eagles defense, who usually struggle against the pass. Johnson will remain a top 5 RB play heading into this coming week’s matchup with the Packers. Antonio Brown made his case for number one overall pick next year, as he turned in the performance of the season against a tough Broncos secondary. Let Brown’s performance reinforce to you the dangers of overanalyzing a matchup in connection with your cream of the crop players. Brown should never sit if you own him. Rounding up the honor roll is Jordan Reed, who takes this award for the second week in a row. He’s a top 3 TE this season, so those of you who own him, continue to enjoy the ride.
Week 15 Takeaways – A Closer Look
Each week we take a closer look at a handful of performances and sort out what such performances mean going forward.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB – NYJ: 26-39, 299 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Analysis: Ryan Fitzpatrick has undeniably taken a step forward this season. So the important question – how big of a step are we talking about? Consider that Fitzpatrick has amassed more than 3,400 passing yards to go along with 26 TDs to date. And while Fitz only passed for one TD this past week, he’s had ten games thus far where he’s had two or more TD passes. With Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker as his primary passing weapons, and Chris Ivory carrying the rock, Fitz has made himself into a high end QB2, with starting consideration in favorable matchups. Fitzpatrick faces the Patriots and the Bills to close out to the season, and will remain a high end QB2 for those matchups.
- Christine Michael, RB – SEA: 16 carries, 84 yards, 0 TDs
- Bryce Brown, RB – SEA: 9 carries, 43 yards, 0 TDs
Analysis: Next we look at the current status of the Seahawks’ RB situation. Most fantasy pundits, including myself, felt that Brown would be the RB to own, rather than Michael. This shows how difficult it can be to diagnose a running game situation from the outside. Michael was traded by the Seahawks earlier in the season and had just been signed during the middle of the week, while Brown had been signed this past week as well, albeit a few days earlier than Michael. While Michael had the bulk of the carries, Brown matched Michael’s production on a per-carry basis. Going forward, look for the committee approach to continue, and on this basis, both Michael and Brown should be viewed as lower-end flex plays and nothing more. Committees muddle the water in fantasy football, and this situation is no different.
- Cameron Artis-Payne, RB – CHA: 14 carries, 59 yards, 0 TDs
Analysis: Jog your memory back to last week when we got word that Jonathan Stewart would be out, with word that Fozzy Whitaker would be next in line. So it only follows that Cameron Artis-Payne would outcarry Whitaker 14 to 2. Thanks Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, Ron Rivera, etc. and everyone else who makes managing a fantasy football team that much tougher! I kid (somewhat), but in any event, Artis-Payne remains the Panthers back to own if Jonathan Stewart remains out this week. The Panthers will face the Falcons this week, so Artis-Payne would have a juicy matchup. But that being said, Artis-Payne was merely average against the Giants, so there’s no guaranty that the distribution of carries in the Falcons game will mirror what we saw this past week. Taking all of this into consideration, Artis-Payne will be more of a flex play than RB2 if Stewart remains out another week.
- Dorial Green-Beckham, WR - TEN: 6 catches, 113 yards, 0 TDs
Analysis: The Tennessee Titans have suffered through another miserable season based on wins-losses, but there’s light at the end of the tunnel. Marcus Mariota has shown signs of being a franchise quarterback. More quietly, Dorial Green-Beckham has shown flashes of his potential as a future number one WR. Green-Beckham has always had top tier talent, with off-field issues being the primary concern. His season-to-date numbers are modest, with 30 catches for 528 yards and 3 TDs. But over the last three weeks, Green-Beckham has combined for 14 catches for 285 yards and 1 TD. How much Green-Beckham can help fantasy owners for this year’s playoffs depends on the size of the league (he’s straddling the WR3/WR4 line), but keep an eye on Green-Beckham for continued positive developments for next season. While Mariota is out for the last two games, Zach Mettenberger will give the young WR opportunities to develop and make plays.
- Emmanuel Sanders, WR – DEN: 10 catches, 181 yards, 1 TD
Analysis: With Peyton Manning under center, Emmanuel Sanders had been fantasy gold, displaying weekly consistency and finding the end zone often. Then Sanders dealt with a high ankle sprain injury, around the same time as Peyton Manning dealt with injury concerns of his own. Insert Brock Osweiler at QB, and Sanders back into the lineup, and you’ve had the prototype for inconsistency. In four games for Sanders with Osweiler under center, Sanders has posted yardage of 113, 19, 17 and 181 over the last four weeks, with only first TD over those four games coming this past weekend against the Steelers. The inconsistent numbers should be attributed to Osweiler, not Sanders. That being said, you experience the highs and lows of Sanders’ numbers if he’s in your lineup. Expect Sanders’ numbers to normalize a bit, but inconsistency will still reign. Because of this, he should be viewed as a high end WR3, rather than a WR2.
Rapid Fire Pickups
Each week we’ll throw out potential free agent pickups from each position for deeper leagues, in each case 1) someone who has NOT been referenced above, and 2) a player available in most leagues.
QB: Jameis Winston, TB (nice matchup against Chicago)
RB: Karlos Williams, BUF (must add with LeSean McCoy out)
RB: Charles Sims, TB
WR: Markus Wheaton, PIT
WR: DeVante Parker, MIA
TE: Zach Miller, CHI
Week 16 Rankings
Quarterbacks
1. Cam Newton
2. Ben Roethlisberger
3. Blake Bortles
4. Russell Wilson
5. Tom Brady
6. Carson Palmer
7. Drew Brees
8. Matthew Stafford
9. Aaron Rodgers
10. Kirk Cousins
11. Derek Carr
12. Philip Rivers
13. Tyrod Taylor
14. Eli Manning
15. Ryan Fitzpatrick
16. Jameis Winston
17. Alex Smith
18. Teddy Bridgewater
19. Ryan Tannehill
20. Brian Hoyer
Running Backs
1. Adrian Peterson
2. David Johnson
3. DeAngelo Williams
4. Doug Martin
5. Latavius Murray
6. Charcandrick West
7. Devonta Freeman
8. Tim Hightower
9. Darren McFadden
10. Matt Forte
11. Lamar Miller
12. Todd Gurley
13. Frank Gore
14. Chris Ivory
15. Karlos Williams
16. Danny Woodhead
17. Eddie Lacy
18. Denard Robinson
19. Cameron Artis-Payne
20. Christine Michael
21. Jeremy Hill
22. Ryan Mathews
23. James White
24. Javorius Allen
25. Ameer Abdullah
26. Giovani Bernard
27. Matt Jones
28. C.J. Anderson
29. Rashad Jennings
30. Spencer Ware
31. Alfred Blue
32. Ronnie Hillman
33. Shaun Draughn
34. Bilal Powell
35. Jeremy Langford
Wide Receivers
1. Antonio Brown
2. Allen Robinson
3. DeAndre Hopkins
4. Julio Jones
5. Doug Baldwin
6. Alshon Jeffery
7. Brandon Marshall
8. Mike Evans
9. Martavis Bryant
10. Sammy Watkins
11. Eric Decker
12. Jeremy Maclin
13. Calvin Johnson
14. Brandin Cooks
15. Demaryius Thomas
16. A.J. Green
17. DeSean Jackson
18. Larry Fitzgerald
19. Kamar Aiken
20. Jarvis Landry
21. Emmanuel Sanders
22. John Brown
23. Randall Cobb
24. Michael Floyd
25. Michael Crabtree
26. Dez Bryant
27. Allen Hurns
28. Ted Ginn, Jr.
29. T.Y. Hilton
30. Amari Cooper
31. Tyler Lockett
32. Donte Moncrief
33. Rueben Randle
34. Willie Snead
35. Stefon Diggs
Tight Ends
1. Rob Gronkowski
2. Greg Olsen
3. Jordan Reed
4. Delanie Walker
5. Benjamin Watson
6. Julius Thomas
7. Antonio Gates
8. Zach Ertz
9. Travis Kelce
10. Zach Miller
11. Gary Barnidge
12. Austin Seferian-Jenkins
13. Will Tye
14. Richard Rodgers
15. Jason Witten
Final Note:
As this week serves as the championship matchup for most leagues, this will be my last writeup for the 2015 season. However, we will post rankings for week 17, so for those of you who have your championship round next week, check in for rankings here. Thanks to all of you for reading and for engaging with me on Twitter – it’s been a fun season! And to those of you competing for titles – lock it down!