Quarterbacks

Tier 1: Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck

Tier 2: Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees

Tier 3: Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Eli Manning

Tier 4: Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill

Tier 5: Joe Flacco, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford, Colin Kaepernick, Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton

Tier 6: Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Robert Griffin III, Alex Smith, Nick Foles, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles

* Players in bold are those players that I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.

Analysis:

We’ve got a deep pool of QBs once again this season. Andrew Luck has made his move into the top echelon of fantasy QBs, and Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger have moved up as well. I have Peyton Manning lower than most draft pundits, as I think his decline during the second half of last season was more than just injury related. Tom Brady’s ranking reflects the current four game suspension that he faces. He’ll move up if the suspension lessens. The quality of the names in tier 4 show the level of depth we have this season. Tier 5 has intriguing names as well, albeit with more risk attached. 

So how should you play the QB position on draft night? Unless great value presents itself with the top level players, I suggest waiting and grabbing your QB after you’ve filled the majority of your starting RB and WR spots. There’s great value to be had in tiers 3 and 4, along with solid backups in tier 5. So be patient at the QB spot on draft night, unless the top guys present too good of a value for you to pass up when you’re on the clock.

Finally, a quick rapid-fire note as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP: 

Ben Roethlisberger:  Up to this point, Ben Roethlisberger has been a better real-life quarterback than fantasy quarterback. With the Steelers having completed the transition from a defense-first team to an offensive juggernaut, Roethlisberger will pick up from where he left off in 2014 – letting the football fly. With Antonio Brown leading a talented group of pass catchers, which also includes star running back Le’Veon Bell, Roethlisberger will post his best season yet.

Eli Manning: After mediocre 2012 and 2013 seasons, we saw Eli Manning bounce back in 2014. Sure, a certain electric rookie wide receiver played a massive role in Manning’s rejuvenation. The arrow’s pointing back up for Manning with the talented offense he has around him. Also, the defense remains poised to give up lots of points, so Manning will be hurling the ball around for necessity. Manning will provide great value for his owners.

Joe Flacco: Joe Flacco has been solid for the Ravens since he entered the league in 2008, and he posted his best numbers last season. As a quarterback who has matured, Flacco is ready to continue his growth as a signal caller, and last year’s stats will be the new normal. Don’t go overboard on Flacco, as he’s a high end QB2 or a QB1 in deep leagues – so not an ideal weekly starter in 10-12 team leagues. But, he will outperform his draft position and is a terrific QB to target if you want a reliable option with a high floor. 

Teddy Bridgewater:  Teddy Bridgewater was my sleeper pick for QBs this season – I wrote about my reasons in detail in the Burning Questions – Sleepers/Busts article. In short, Bridgewater will take the next step this season as a second year QB, plus he will be aided by the return of Adrian Peterson and the emerging WR Charles Johnson. View Bridgewater as a high end QB2.

Running Backs

Tier 1: Adrian Peterson, Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch

Tier 2: CJ Anderson, Jeremy Hill, DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy

Tier 3: Justin Forsett, Melvin Gordon, Alfred Morris, Carlos Hyde, Mark Ingram, Frank Gore, Todd Gurley, Latavius Murray, Lamar Miller

Tier 4: Jonathan Stewart, Joique Bell, Joseph Randle, Andre Ellington, Rashad Jennings, TJ Yeldon, Tevin Coleman, Doug Martin

Tier 5: Giovani Bernard, CJ Spiller, LaGarrette Blount, Christopher Ivory, Tre Mason, Shane Vereen, Ameer Abdullah, Arian Foster

Tier 6: Denard Robinson, Darren Sproles, Ryan Mathews, Darren McFadden, Alfred Blue, Isaiah Crowell, Bishop Sankey, Fred Jackson, Duke Johnson, Reggie Bush

Tier 7: Jerick McKinnon, Andre Williams, Devonta Freeman, Theo Riddick, Montee Ball, DeAngelo Williams, Knile Davis, David Cobb, Terrance West 

* Players in bold are those players that I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.

Analysis: 

We’ve got many familiar faces taking residence in tier 1. Le’Veon Bell would have been the hands down number 1 guy if he was not suspended for the first two games. But with his suspension, a healthy debate can be had for the top guy. I lean towards AP, but don’t have any qualms if you go with someone else from that group. The tier 2 guys have the potential to match their tier 1 counterparts, but come with additional issues. Will CJ Anderson and Jeremy Hill be able to sustain their performances from the end of last season? Will DeMarco Murray stay healthy? Arian Foster was initially earmarked to lead the tier 2 group, but with his groin injury, he falls all the way to tier 6, where Alfred Blue joins him. Matt Forte could be slowing down a bit, and similar concern with LeSean McCoy, along with how well McCoy will perform in a new system.

The tier 3 group oozes with potential as well, starting with Justin Forsett and including top rookies Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley. Depending on health, Gurley may need to move up the board a bit – or a lot. A healthy Gurley would be straddling the tier 2/tier 3 line. Venturing into tier 4, there’s a mix of injury concerns and inexperience - Tevin Coleman and TJ Yeldon are intriguing rookies in the group, and could potentially return RB2 value. But they are risky. The guys listed in tier 5 and below have some combination of concerns including injury, time share, 3^rd down only designation and other issues which keep them as ideal backups for your team, but not starters.

So what should your RB strategy look like? There are defensible arguments all over the spectrum, including the two extremes – grab RBs with top 2 picks or go with WRs with top 2 picks, then cobble together RBs. I suggest your strategy meets in the middle – grab one anchor RB, then take care of WRs, etc. and go for volume with multiple high upside RBs later on. Of course you need to be smart about your draft board, so if you’re drafting towards the end of the first round, for example, don’t pigeonhole yourself into drafting a RB if there’s a WR you strongly prefer sitting there for you. But my ideal scenario would be grabbing one of the top RBs, and drafting 2-3 higher upside RBs later on to compete for your RB2 position. As in most years, there will be guys from the lower tiers who end up providing starting caliber value, but nailing down who exactly will do so remains the challenge.

Finally, a quick rapid-fire note as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:

Jeremy Hill: Jeremy Hill came into his rookie year last season as Giovani Bernard’s backup. One injury to Bernard later, Hill now sits atop the RB depth chart, albeit he will continue to cede some carries to Bernard. Hill exploded against the Jaguars in his NFL first start, which was near the midway point in the Bengals’ schedule. In Hill’s nine starts, he rushed for 147 yards or more in four of them, and finished the season north of 1,000 yards, with 9 TDs and a 5.1 yard average per carry. Hill’s the real deal, and should go towards the back half of the first round, rather than the second round.

Justin Forsett: Wrote about Justin Forsett more extensively in my Burning Questions – Sleepers/Busts article, so won’t repeat everything in that article. Forsett fits the Ravens offense well, including in the passing game. Expect Forsett to continue his performance from last season as he took over the starting role. Forsett would be a fine selection in the mid second round, rather than the third round where he’s being selected now. 

Latavius Murray: After years of futility, the Raiders appear headed in the right direction. While the addition of Amari Cooper will be the most exciting fantasy related story for the Raiders, the emergence of Latavius Murray could be a close second. Murray got the nation’s attention with a 4 carry, 112 yard, 2 TD performance against the Chiefs on Thursday night football, and Murray heads into the season as the Raiders’ unquestioned starting RB. The improved passing game and retooled offensive line will open the field up further for Murray, and Murray will capitalize as a solid RB2.

Tevin Coleman:  While Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley receive the most hype from the rookie class, and rightfully so, don’t sleep on Tevin Coleman. Coleman’s in competition with Devonta Freeman for the starting RB spot, and I expect Coleman’s talent to win out. Last season, Freeman didn’t show much of anything to distinguish himself. Coleman has more athleticism and a better (i.e. bigger) build to take the punishment that lead backs need to take. The O-line remains a concern in Atlanta, so there will be obstacles to overcome, but Coleman has the type of talent to push for RB2 caliber numbers in his rookie season.

Wide Receivers

Tier 1: Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Odell Beckham

Tier 2: AJ Green, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Calvin Johnson, TY Hilton, Alshon Jeffrey

Tier 3: Mike Evans, Emmanuel Sanders, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandin Cooks

Tier 4: Jordan Matthews, Julian Edelman, Golden Tate, Andre Johnson, Sammy Watkins, Amari Cooper

Tier 5: DeSean Jackson, Martavis Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, Vincent Jackson, Jarvis Landry, Davante Adams

Tier 6: Steve Smith, Jeremy Maclin, Charles Johnson, Roddy White, Eric Decker, Nelson Agholor, Mike Wallace, Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald

Tier 7: John Brown, Brandon LaFell, Victor Cruz, Marques Colston, Pierre Garcon, Torrey Smith, Kendall Wright, Anquan Boldin, Marvin Jones, Breshad Perriman, Donte Moncrief, Percy Harvin, Doug Baldwin, Markus Wheaton

Tier 8: Devante Parker, Cody Latimer, Terrance Williams, Steve Johnson, Kenny Stills, Marquise Lee, Dorial Green-Beckham, Rueben Randle, Brian Quick, Kenny Britt, Dwayne Bowe,

* Players in bold are those players that I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.

Analysis:

With the passing game dominating the landscape of NFL offenses today, the crop of high quality wide receivers runs deep. The pass catchers in tier 1 carry first round value, with the tier 2 receivers similarly providing second round value for your draft. Tiers 3 and 4 consist primarily of young receivers with very high upside, and a few of these guys will even bust out with WR1 type seasons. Tiers 5 and 6 also have intriguing names, demonstrating just how deep of a WR pool we have this season. Several young breakout candidates reside there, along with solid veterans such as Roddy White, Steve Smith and Larry Fitzgerald who, while their best days may be behind them, will still be productive for owners. The quality doesn’t stop there, as tiers 7 and 8 consist of a nice mix of upside options and solid vets as well. In summary, we’ve got serious top level talent at WR, with interesting options well into tier 8. 

As for your WR strategy, similar to RBs, you can go in many different directions, all of which are defensible. My suggested game plan depends on how many starting WR positions your league requires you to start.  If you start three WRs, then I’d make sure to get an anchor (someone from tiers 1-2), along with two guys from the tiers 3-4 group (albeit understandable if your third WR comes from tier 5). From there, grab a few upside guys from the lower tiers to see if you can hit on any breakout guys on the cheap. We have more certainty at the mid level with WRs than we do with RBs, so it makes sense to make the extra investment on the WR front – especially if you need to start 3 WRs. In leagues where only 2 WRs start, I would still suggest grabbing a tier 1-2 anchor, followed by a tier 3-4 WR to serve as your WR2, but you don’t necessarily need to double up on a second guy in the tier 3-4 tier.

Finally, a quick rapid-fire note as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:

Brandin Cooks: The departure of Jimmy Graham from the Saints has opened a glaring need for a new number one target.  Enter Brandin Cooks. While Cooks’ had a mildly disappointing rookie season. one which ended early with an injury, he showed plenty of promise. Cooks can absolutely fly, which makes him even more dangerous on the Superdome fast track. He’s also got a quarterback in Drew Brees that will utilize him in the most optimal way. Cooks will be a fantastic WR2 for fantasy owners this season.

Amari Cooper: I discussed Amari Cooper in more detail in my Burning Questions – Top Rookie article, so check that article for more in-depth analysis regarding Cooper’s potential this year. Cooper enters the NFL as one of the most polished rookie wide receivers in quite some time, with NFL route running already in his vernacular. Cooper will contribute from day one and will breathe life into the Raiders offense, simultaneously posting numbers for his fantasy owners. 

Martavis Bryant: While Markus Wheaton was the higher drafted rookie WR for the Steelers in 2014, it was Martavis Bryant who turned heads with his rookie season. To the delight of fantasy owners, Bryant has a knack for finding the endzone, using his tall frame together with faster than expected speed. Bryant had a lot of hit or miss games, as he only had 26 receptions last season, but look for his consistency to improve in 2015, while pushing up against 10 TDs. Bryant slots in as a terrific WR3 option.

Allen Robinson: While the Jaguars’ offense has scared no one in recent years, it took a step forward in terms of fantasy relevancy in 2014. His season cut short after an injury, Robinson missed the last six games of the season. He was on pace for roughly 900 yards and was emerging as Blake Bortles’ favorite target. In Robinson’s final eight games, he was targeted 72 times, equaling an average of 9 targets per game. Look for Robinson to re-establish himself as Bortles’ go-to guy, and like Martavis Bryant, he will provide high-end WR3 value for his owners.

Charles Johnson: Mike Wallace’s addition to the Vikings has grabbed the WR headlines for the team, but don’t let that get you off track. Charles Johnson, and not Mike Wallace, is the top WR to own on the Vikings. Johnson developed great rapport with Teddy Bridgewater down the stretch last season, and the two will continue to develop as a tandem. Johnson runs a sub 4.4 40 and he averaged over 16 yards per catch last year. Look for more growth this year. Johnson will bring a great ROI for his owners, providing WR3 value at a fraction of the cost of some bigger names.

Davante Adams: I went more in depth on Davante Adams in my Burning Questions – Sleepers/Busts article, so I won’t regurgitate that information here. With Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback, Adams’ route running skills improving and Jordy Nelson now being out for the season, Adams will take the next step as a WR. Randall Cobb remains ahead of him on the pecking order, but you can expect numbers reaching up to 75 catches, 1,000 yards and 8 TDs. That would be production WR3, but he’s going lower than that in current drafts, so be ready to pounce on him and reap the rewards.

Tight Ends

Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski

Tier 2: Jimmy Graham

Tier 3: Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen, Martellus Bennett

Tier 4: Zach Ertz, Dwayne Allen, Jordan Cameron, Jason Witten, Julius Thomas, Delanie Walker

Tier 5: Antonio Gates, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Josh Hill, Owen Daniels, Larry Donell, Jordan Reed, Kyle Rudolph

Tier 6: Charles Clay, Tyler Eifert, Vernon Davis, Ladarius Green, Heath Miller, Mychal Rivera

* Players in bold are those players that I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP. 

Analysis:

The tight end tiers spell the situation out quite clearly.  We’ve got one undisputed top option in Gronkowski, followed by another single tier level in Jimmy Graham, followed by the rest of the tight end crew starting in tier 3. Gronk sits at the late first-early second round area, while Jimmy Graham should be selected in the late third-early fourth round portion of the draft. Feel free to grab either Gronk or Graham if you can select either at a good value spot.  Otherwise, be patient and grab someone from tiers 3 through 5. Tier 3 should be selected no earlier than tier 6 – get your RB and WR situations squared away first. Tiers 4 and below should be selected no earlier than tier 8.

Finally, a quick rapid-fire note as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:

Dwayne Allen: Dwayne Allen was my sleeper TE, as I wrote about in my Burning Questions – Sleeper/Busts article. No question that the Colts offense is loaded this season – with many mouths to feed. But Allen, and not Coby Fleener, is the Colts’ best TE. Allen finished 2014 with 8 TD catches, and he has slimmed down this offseason in order to play faster. He just needs to stay healthy, which has been a problem for him. You’ll be able to select Allen late in your draft, with most teams having already selected a TE. Grab him late and enjoy the rewards.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins: Austin Seferian-Jenkins has top 5 TE talent, with great hands and off-the-chart athleticism. Now that he has an upgrade at QB, look for him to post low-end TE1 stats, while entrenching himself in future seasons as a surefire TE1. This will be the last season where you’ll be able to draft him this cheap.

Defense/Special Teams

Tier 1: Seattle, Buffalo, St. Louis, Houston

Tier 2: New York Jets, Arizona, Baltimore, Denver, Miami

Tier 3: New England, Green Bay, Detroit, Carolina, Minnesota

Tier 4: Cleveland, San Francisco, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh

Tier 5: Dallas, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, Atlanta

Top 150 Rankings

1. Adrian Peterson (5)
2. Le’Veon Bell (11)
3. Eddie Lacy (7)
4. Jamaal Charles (9)
5. Marshawn Lynch (9)
6. Antonio Brown (11)
7. Dez Bryant (6)
8. CJ Anderson (7)
9. Demaryius Thomas (7)
10. Jeremy Hill (7)
11. Odell Beckham (11)
12. Rob Gronkowski (4)
13. DeMarco Murray (8)
14. Matt Forte (7)
15. LeSean McCoy (8)
16. AJ Green (7)
17. Julio Jones (10)
18. Justin Forsett (9)
19. Randall Cobb (7)
20. Melvin Gordon (10)
21. Calvin Johnson (9)
22. Aaron Rodgers (7)
23. Andrew Luck (10)
24. TY Hilton (10)
25. Alshon Jeffery (7)
26. Alfred Morris (8)
27. Carlos Hyde (10)
28. Mark Ingram (11)
29. Frank Gore (10)
30. Todd Gurley (6)
31. Mike Evans (6)
32. Emmanuel Sanders (7)
33. Russell Wilson (9)
34. DeAndre Hopkins (9)
35. Latavius Murray (6)
36. Brandin Cooks (11)
37. Lamar Miller (7)
38. Ben Roethlisberger (11)
39. Jimmy Graham (9)
40. Jordan Matthews (8)
41. Drew Brees (11)
42. Jonathan Stewart (5)
43. Julian Edelman (4)
44. Golden Tate (9)
45. Joique Bell (9)
46. Joseph Randle (6)
47. Andre Ellington (9)
48. Andre Johnson (10)
49. Rashad Jennings (11)
50. Sammy Watkins (8)
51. Amari Cooper (6)
52. TJ Yeldon (8)
53. Tony Romo (6)
54. Tevin Coleman (10)
55. Doug Martin (6)
56. Matt Ryan (10)
57. Travis Kelce (9)
58. DeSean Jackson (8)
59. Martavis Bryant (11)
60. Greg Olsen (5)
61. Peyton Manning (7)
62. Giovani Bernard (7)
63. CJ Spiller (11)
64. Brandon Marshall (5)
65. Keenan Allen (10)
66. Cam Newton (5)
67. Martellus Bennett (7)
68. LaGarrette Blount (4)
69. Allen Robinson (8)
70. Tom Brady (4)
71. Vincent Jackson (6)
72. Jarvis Landry (5)
73. Davante Adams (7)
74. Eli Manning (11)
75. Steve Smith (9)
76. Jeremy Maclin (9)
77. Christopher Ivory (5)
78. Charles Johnson (5)
79. Tre Mason (6)
80. Shane Vereen (11)
81. Roddy White (10)
82. Zach Ertz (8)
83. Ameer Abdullah (9)
84. Eric Decker (5)
85. Arian Foster (9)
86. Nelson Agholor (8)
87. Dwayne Allen (10)
88. Mike Wallace (5)
89. Denard Robinson (8)
90. Jordan Cameron (5)
91. Philip Rivers (10)
92. Darren Sproles (11)
93. Ryan Mathews (8)
94. Jason Witten (6)
95. Michael Floyd (9)
96. Darren McFadden (6)
97. Matthew Stafford (9)
98. Larry Fitzgerald (9)
99. Julius Thomas (8)
100. Ryan Tannehill (5)
101. Delanie Walker (4)
102. John Brown (9)
103. Alfred Blue (9)
104. Isaiah Crowell (11)
105. Brandon LaFell (4)
106. Victor Cruz (11)
107. Bishop Sankey (4)
108. Marques Colston (11)
109. Pierre Garcon (8)
110. Joe Flacco (9)
111. Fred Jackson (8)
112. Duke Johnson (11)
113. Teddy Bridgewater (5)
114. Torrey Smith (10)
115. Antonio Gates (10)
116. Reggie Bush (10)
117. Sam Bradford (8)
118. Kendall Wright (4)
119. Austin Seferian-Jenkins (6)
120. Josh Hill (11)
121. Colin Kaepernick (10)
122. Carson Palmer (9)
123. Seattle Seahawks (9)
124. Jerick McKinnon (5)
125. Anquan Boldin (10)
126. Marvin Jones (7)
127. Owen Daniels (7)
128. Andre Williams (11)
129. Jay Cutler (7)
130. Devonta Freeman (10)
131. Larry Donnell (11)
132. Jordan Reed (8)
133. Theo Riddick (9)
134. Andy Dalton (7)
135. Buffalo Bills (8)
136. Breshad Perriman (9)
137. Montee Ball (7)
138. St. Louis Rams (6)
139. Kyle Rudolph (5)
140. DeAngelo Williams (7)
141. Donte Moncrief (10)
142. Percy Harvin (8)
143. Knile Davis (9)
144. Houston Texans (9)
145. Doug Baldwin (9)
146. Markus Wheaton (11)
147. Jameis Winston (6)
148. David Cobb (4)
149. Terrance West (11)
150. Derek Carr (6)