2014 Record: 12-4, won Super Bowl

Current +/- wins per Bovada: Off the board, last line was 11.5

Overall: The Super Bowl champs come off a magically interesting season. Led by future Hall Of Fame Head Coach Bill Belichick in one of his greatest seasons, the 2014 New England Patriots led the league in scoring, point differential and fewest giveaways. Tom Brady was his typical awesome self at quarterback, settling in after a shaky start and winding up fifth in both QB Rating and TD passes while notching his highest completion percentage in four years.

The defense is Belichick’s baby, and last year’s was a great one. Even though significant changes have been made, there is still ample talent. Led by Jamie Collins and a very well-conceived defensive front group, New England figures to be tough to score upon once again. Specialists Ryan Allen and Stephen Gostkowski are both above-average at punter and kicker, respectively, while Belichick’s strategy of drafting specific special teams players like Matthew Slater and Nate Ebner results in the Patriots annually having one of the best units.

There are some weaknesses on paper. Every winning team suffers attrition losses, and the Patriots are no exception. The cloud of a certain scandal hangs over the team as well, one which cannot be ignored. This New England team faces several challenges to get back to where they feel they rightly belong, hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. The potential is there once again. 

Five Questions

1. How do they replace the defensive losses?

Every team suffers offseason losses, but not every team loses the best man coverage cornerback in the game. Darrelle Revis played one year in New England, but his presence radically altered the way Bill Belichick designed the defense. Revis was capable of playing 1-on-1 man coverage against any receiver. It freed up the safeties, notably Devin McCourty, to play more freely and make plays without having to worry about helping on Revis’ side. He’s one of the most impactful individuals in the NFL over the last decade, and now he’s back playing for the rival Jets.

The other starting corner from last year, Brandon Browner, is also gone. His massive size for the position facilitated a more physical style of coverage, one which consistently disrupted the timing of the opposing offense. Forcing the enemy to alter its normal attack is a hallmark of Bill Belichick’s defenses, and last year he accomplished this with physical, skilled corners. Now the depth chart has churned and Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler are the starters, with former Falcon Robert McClain in the slot.

Ryan has been up and down in his two seasons in New England. He’s probably a decent starter, albeit in a different style than the guy(s) he’s replacing. Then again, he’s not exactly impressing in the preseason…

 

Butler made one truly great play to win a Super Bowl but beyond that he’s a vastly unknown commodity. He’s played less than 200 NFL snaps, almost all as a dime back facing the opposing fourth wideout. Obviously the final play looks promising, but asking him to be Brandon Browner is a stretch.

The depth on the back end is the biggest issue. McClain was “rotten” in Atlanta, to quote Falcons writer (and personal friend) Scott Carasik, and his Pro Football Focus score of -11.7 in coverage concurs. The rest of the reserves will come from a camp battle of “who sucks less” between players with no experience like Dax Swanson and Darryl Roberts or low-level journeymen like Bradley Fletcher. I was bullish on both Swanson (in ’13) and Roberts (7th rounder in ’15) in the draft evaluation process, but they’re greenhorns from non-BCS schools. If there is a breakout performer in this group, it’s Roberts.

Up front the Patriots lost the big man up front, with Vince Wilfork waddling to Houston. One of the quickest fat guys to ever set two heavy feet on this planet, Wilfork was a disruptor extraordinaire. He was versatile enough to play anywhere up front in any scheme. While he didn’t produce great numbers, he impacted the opposing blocking scheme to near the extent Revis did in coverage. The guys taking his place do have some talent and real upside, notably first-round picks Malcolm Brown and Dominic Easley. They’ll replace Wilfork’s contribution after the ball is snapped, but I doubt they draw the kind of pre-snap consternation.

Then again, this is a defense built around the skilled linebackers and ends, with superb safety McCourty behind them. Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower, Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich are the heart of the defense, and they return intact. The hyper-athletic and rapidly improving Collins is a fair dark-horse candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. That core group will need to be very good, because the supporting cast is iffier than any time in recent memory. 

2. Who besides Gronk catches touchdowns?

Gronk, of course, is All Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski. He might be the best red zone threat in the NFL today. In the last two seasons the fun-loving Gronk has played at least 15 games (2011 and ’14) he nabbed 172 receptions and 29 TDs, of which 12 came a year ago. Who can forget his destruction of half the Colts defense in his glorious catch-and-run versus Indianapolis last year?

A healthy Gronk will lead all NFL tight ends in receptions (yes fantasy gurus, he will top Jimmy Graham) and threaten to lead all players regardless of position in touchdowns. Ninety-five catches and 15 TDs is my expectation if he’s on the field for a full 16 games.

There are two issues here, however. First, Gronk gets hurt. A lot. Going back to his college days he’s had injuries to his back, ankle, knee, forearm and back once again. He even missed three games at Arizona with mono, perhaps the most fitting of his maladies.

Secondly, even when he’s in the lineup the Patriots don’t really have any other playmakers at wideout. Sure, Brandon Lafell posted 74 receptions and 7 TDs in his first season in New England, and he looked like a great fit with Tom Brady in doing so. Yet in his four seasons in Carolina prior to defecting to the Patriots, Lafell was a relative disappointment. He was good for exactly one long TD a year; his high-yardage catch in each season from 2011-13 comprised more than 10% of his total receiving yardage every year, and one year he caught 49 passes. I do think Lafell can replicate last year’s numbers just based on sheer volume of opportunity, provided he’s ready for the season; he’s still on PUP and the Pats are sniffing around the veteran WR scrap heap. When Brady (and Jimmy Garoppolo, maybe) throw the ball 600 times and only 140 or so are to Gronk, someone else is going to get decent numbers.

It’s what they do with those numbers that scares me about this offense. Lafell is a perfectly generic starting outside receiver, ideally a fourth option in a sophisticated passing game behind a great #1 wideout, a crafty tight end and a dynamic slot guy. New England doesn’t have the first or third in the equation. Julian Edelman is a solid possession-type weapon between the 20s. He caught 92 passes a year ago…and didn’t hit 1,000 yards receiving. Do you have any idea how difficult a feat that is?!? Since 2010, a wideout has caught at least 85 passes in a year 49 times. All but five have topped 1,000 yards. One is Edelman last year.

Another is Danny Amendola in 2010. He was with the Rams then, but now he’s the primary slot option in New England. Last year he averaged 7.4 yards per catch and scored once. Tim Wright and his 6 TDs are back in Tampa Bay. The top two receivers out of the backfield last year, Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley, are playing for the competing New York teams.

I do appreciate the concept of bringing back the top three wideouts from last year. They’re all great fits for the horizontal, quick-hitting pass game which the Patriots rode to glory a year ago. But there will be times where the offense needs someone other than Gronk to make a big play. These Patriots just don’t have that guy. If Gronk gets hurt--again--it’s pretty much all on Tom Brady to do everything.

3. Can the offensive line keep it together?

This seems like a perennial question surrounding New England. It’s what happens when the injury bug never stops biting. It’s also what happens when you trade away the best lineman on the team, Logan Mankins, for a player (Tim Wright) you allow to return to his old team after one season.

The tackles should be fine, provided Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer remain intact on the left and right side, respectively. It’s the tallest tackle tandem in the league, with the goal to give Brady the most time by forcing edge rushers as wide and deep as possible. Vollmer does this very well; he’s one of the better and more consistent right tackles in the league. Solder can over-set and get beaten by quicker guys who can cross him back inside, and that was the root cause of most of his six allowed sacks and nine penalties. It’s a high number, but he’s a strong run blocker and Brady appears to trust him. Solder has proven durable, and that’s just as valuable as anything else.

Inside is a different story. All three spots are up in the air, thanks to injury woes and personnel shuffling.

Optimally, the starting G-C-G would be Ryan Wendell, Bryan Stork and Tre Jackson. However, Wendell and Stork are both currently out with injuries. Wendell is on PUP while Stork has missed a couple of weeks with a “minor” injury. This impacts the cohesion on the line, which was already an issue with adding Jackson, a third-round rookie from Florida State.

Stork’s emergence at center a year ago really helped the entire offense, not just the line, gel into a great unit. It took him a few games to get comfortable, but then the fourth-round pick settled in and figured out how to use his great upper-body strength and play the angles better. He was on the hook for just one sack and finished in the top 10 in QB Hurries allowed (thanks PFF!) as a rookie. Assuming his malady doesn’t keep him out much longer, and every Patriots source I spoke with advised me that will be the case, center should be okay.

Wendell’s issue is more bothersome. He wasn’t very good in pass protection a year ago, issues which really showed in the playoffs. Quickness kills him. The fact he’s missed all of the offseason doesn’t inspire any confidence he’ll improve. With a rookie manning the other guard spot, it would be a lot more reassuring if the veteran of the interior could hold the fort. Jackson is probably the most naturally talented of any Patriots lineman, but every rookie takes his lumps. The reserves inside, guys like Marcus Cannon, Ryan Groy, Josh Klein or rookie Shaq Mason, are all easily identifiable weak links should they be forced into the lineup. Mason was a divisive prospect, like Jackson a fourth-round pick but unlike the hulking Florida State product a short-armed, slow-footed snowplow of a run-blocking specialist coming from a gimmicky offense at Georgia Tech. Daily observers advise me he’s not anywhere close to being NFL ready. Groy is probably the best fallback option, and the Patriots traded for him from Chicago in camp to help get enough bodies to run a full practice.

Cannon is the primary backup tackle, which is troubling. He’s a fantastic story, beating cancer to fulfill his NFL dream. Unfortunately he’s not played all that well despite having enough versatility to play every spot but center. Last year’s regular season finale against the attacking Bills defense saw Cannon (playing right tackle) beaten repeatedly, with no answer for the speed or wide angles. If Solder or Vollmer goes down, this line sure looks weak. 

4. How much does Deflategate impact the team?

It’s been the story of the summer. By now you’re as sick of it as I am, so we’ll leave the details behind and flash to what it might do to the Patriots on the field.

As of press time (Aug. 24th) Tom Brady remains suspended for the first four games. That’s a really big deal. He’s a perennial Top-5 MVP finisher, the straw that stirs an otherwise middling group of offensive talent into one capable of winning world championships. If Belichick is God, Brady is his archangel. Alternately, if Belichick is the Great Satan, Brady is his pitchfork.

Jimmy Garoppolo holds promise as his backup and the starter for the first four games. Now in his second season from Eastern Illinois, Garoppolo has shown a decent arm, good awareness and the ability to handle pressure reasonably well for a player of limited big-time experience. He’s Brady’s designated successor, and the first one to carry that moniker who might actually live up to the billing.

His job is simple: don’t do anything to ruin the season. Remember, last year the Patriots opened 2-2 and there were some talking heads calling for Garoppolo to take over then. As long as he can carry them to a matching record or better, everything is fine. If he’s not up to the task, if the offense sputters badly or the team somehow loses in Week 3 to still-lowly Jacksonville, then it might be too much even for Brady to return as the hero and lead them to yet another AFC East title.

It goes beyond the QB situation, however. It’s hard to predict how this latest and quite public black eye on the organization impacts the team. This fiasco has enlarged the considerable bullseye on New England. As if it wasn’t enough they were the reigning champs, yet another scandal--however pointless it may or may not be--means every team will be gunning to knock them down even harder.

I suspect one of two things will happen on this front. The team will rally around itself, its majordomo head coach, and the perceived injustice of a systematically corrupt and morally hypocritical NFL, taking out their considerable frustrations on anyone and everyone in their path. Or the constant outside scrutiny finally cracks the Belichick armor and drains the team of just enough energy that the rest of the AFC catches up.

Belichick shields his team from outside forces and distractions better than any coach in any organized sport ever has. The Patriots are a tightly run oligarchy with Belichick as the ultimate dictator. Any signs of dissention or leaking to the media results in swift reprisal, a fact so deeply ingrained it seldom gets challenged any longer. Belichick commands this respect because he’s great at coaxing greatness from players and devising schemes to befuddle opponents. He’s beyond the curve in the road where most opponents are still just getting to the on ramp.

Yet this whole situation has clearly worn on the great coach. It can’t not do that to any man at the epicenter. Will this be the one which finally trips up the great Bill Belichick? I do not believe so, but ruling out that possibility is impossible. 

5. What else can trip up the team?

The biggest threat appears to be the ethereal fallout from having slightly underinflated footballs. Obviously a prolonged absence by Brady, beyond his suspension, would lower the expectation bar. There are a few other things which could trip them up…

- Lack of pass rush. The Patriots finished 23rd in sack percentage a year ago and rely on a “sack-field by committee”. Rob Ninkovich led the team with 8 sacks, a total he’s posted three straight seasons. Chandler Jones bagged 11.5 two years ago but sloughed back to 6 in ’14 while missing time with a hip injury. He had offseason surgery and that bears watching; the Patriots sorely need Jones to get back to double-digit form. Jamie Collins can double his four sacks from a year ago as his star continues to rocket up, but it could come at the expense of his great coverage skills. There really isn’t a pressure progenitor up front to create on individual effort, and that could come into play against better opposing QBs not so fazed by New England’s scheme.

- Running back. LeGarrette Blount was his typical self, topping the rotating cast in yards per carry (4.7) but also in negative runs despite ranking 4th in carries. With Vereen and Ridley gone, it puts more onus on Jonas Gray, James White and Brandon Boldin. Gray had one game which even qualifies as good, but man was it fantastic: 201 yards and 4 TDs against Indianapolis. He had 211 yards and one TD on the rest of the year. There is no third-down, dual-threat sort of back anymore, though Dion Lewis and White do offer potential. None of these backs strike fear in opposing defenses, and that can be problematic if the questionable pass catchers outside aren’t performing at a high level.

- Kick returns. New England finished 26th in kick return yards, and primary returner Danny Amendola had just two returns longer than 30 yards. For all the attention given to having superlative coverage units, the Patriots don’t really have a bona fide return threat.

Taken individually, none of these are serious threats. New England has had worse situations at every spot in one season or another in the Belichick era. But if more than one confluence together with another above issue, there could be a serious problem. This team doesn’t have the margin for error of past Patriots.

Forecast: It’s awfully hard to repeat as a Super Bowl participant, let alone a champion. Losing Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner means Bill Belichick will have to once again re-tool his defense around a different strength. Meanwhile, the offense is heavily dependent on 38-year-old Tom Brady and oft-injured tight end Rob Gronkowski to carry an otherwise middling cast.

I trust Belichick will fashion another excellent defense. With Collins, Hightower and an impressive all-around front, they’ll be tough to score upon even with a depleted secondary. Yet last year the Patriots led the league in scoring, and I don’t think they’ll come close to that again. The potential is there for finishing in the top 10 again, but will it be enough?

The schedule features several prime-time dates, with road games against returning division winners Dallas, Indianapolis and Denver all on the docket. Three of the final four are also road games, and they very well might need to win at the Jets and Dolphins in the final two weeks to get back to the playoffs. As noted above, the margin for error with this New England team is smaller than it has been in a few years. I think that margin trips them up a few times, but not enough to deny yet another postseason trip--as long as Brady, Gronk and Collins stay on the field. These Patriots finish 10-6 and remain a team nobody ever wants to see in January.