2014 Record: 6-10, 3rd in NFC South

Current +/- wins per LV Hilton: 8.5

Overall: The Mike Smith era in Atlanta ended with a decided thud. One of the worst defenses in the Super Bowl era and an injury-ravaged offensive line that lacked talent to begin with sent the Falcons reeling to a 6-10 finish in a year where many had projected playoffs.

It was time for Smith to go. He probably should have been fired on the plane ride home from the brutal loss in London, where his mismanagement and a total lack of cohesion from his team allowed the Lions to rally for an extraordinary comeback win. The Falcons went in a very divergent direction in hiring former Seattle defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, a relentlessly positive and enthusiastic personality. His Falcons will be different, if nothing else.

Dapper hipster GM Thomas Dimitroff somehow survived despite a frustrating record of draft busts; only four players remain from the 2009-12 drafts: Julio Jones, William Moore, Peter Konz and Jonathan Massaquoi. Konz is on the roster bubble and Massaquoi is a reserve. The team still has marquee front-line talent with quarterback Matt Ryan, wideout Jones and cornerback Desmond Trufant. The second-tier talents just have not progressed as expected, and the depth has really suffered.

This team is at the dawn of a new era, but there is a long shadow from the playoff runs from 2009-12. Ryan, Jones and Roddy White still present a formidable passing attack. Fans see their names and it raises expectations. There is potential for the young roster around them to rise up and get back into the playoffs, but it will not be easy.

Five Questions

1. Can the defense really be that bad again?

The short answer is it cannot. Last year’s Falcons set the NFL record for defensive inefficiency. Atlanta ranked dead last in:

- Yards per play (6.1)

- Third Down conversions (46.8%)

- Yards per game (398.2)

- Yards per completion (12.5)

There were several other categories where the Falcons were near the bottom as well.

Things have to change, and quick. The pass rush will get its own treatment later, but that’s far from the only area of improvement.

Fortunately there are some nice young building blocks. Desmond Trufant is quickly developing into one of the NFL’s better corners. Pro Football Focus graded him out as their No. 6 CB last year, his second season after being a first-rounder out of Washington. Trufant is agile, plucky and hyper-aggressive. He can be a legit shutdown corner.

Alas, Trufant was one of only two Falcons in the back seven to grade out positively with PFF. The other was safety Dwight Lowery, now in Indianapolis. The Falcons are hopeful second-round corner Jalen Collins can quickly emerge as a playmaker opposite Trufant. Collins has the length and speed NFL teams covet. Yet he was a part-time starter at LSU and had issues with quicker receivers, as well as trouble catching the ball when presented the opportunity. At worst he’s a solid third corner behind Trufant and Robert Alford, another second-round pick (in 2013) who has some talent but blows too many assignments. He surrendered 6 TD receptions on 32 catches last year. He also got flagged a lot, which is a real problem in the newer man-heavy coverage scheme. Collins is a better schematic fit and should take over the gig before long. His strong run support and open0field tackling are useful assets.

Atlanta brought in journeyman veteran Phillip Adams to play the nickel spot inside. That is not an upgrade from Robert McClain. However, rookie Kevin White (not the West Virginia wideout but rather the TCU corner) offers real promise in that position. He’s small but crafty, the best pound-for-pound coverage man at Senior Bowl practices this January.

The Falcons are using short-term patches to help address the putrid linebacker situation. They chose wisely in importing speedy Justin Durant from Dallas. He’s a major upgrade from Joplo Bartu, a capable reserve but over his head when playing more than about 20 snaps per game. Durant brings sideline-to-sideline range and coverage ability. He’s never been a playmaker, creating just 10 turnovers and 3.5 sacks in eight seasons with three teams, but the Falcons will happily take his reliable play. Brooks Reed will also start after washing out in Houston. He never materialized as the pass rusher the Texans wanted him to be, but the hirsute Reed is a solid run defender who offers blitzing potential. Both the veteran free agents are prudent choices who will help fortify a needy defense.

Safety remains a thorny issue. William Moore is a decent starter, but he’s coming off a serious shoulder injury that robbed him of most of last season. His play is critical in Dan Quinn’s defense, where the safeties are called upon to make plays and be aggressive. If he’s right, he can be a strong presence in the heart of the defense. But he’s missed practice time and has to learn a new role.

The other safety spot? Enter Ricardo Allen, who failed to make the team as a fifth-round pick in 2014 as an undersized cornerback. Coming out of Purdue I did like Allen’s toughness and instincts, but 5’9” corners who can’t turn and run don’t last long in the NFL. It’s worth trying him at safety if for no other reason than nobody else on the roster can do it better. Panthers castoff Charles Godfrey is his primary competition, though he’s best suited as the fourth safety. Sean Baker, who has been signed and released no fewer than eight times in two years, is also in the mix. “Soul Eater” brings size and thump but probably shouldn’t ever be more than a special teams glue guy. Atlanta is going to need some luck here.

2. Is the offensive line ready for action?

Last year’s Falcons were proof that a bad offensive line can completely scuttle an offense studded with impressive skill position talent. In the course of the season they started three different players each at right tackle and center, sorely lacking continuity or any semblance of reliable pass protection for Matt Ryan.

Thus far, the line remains a mystery. Jake Matthews will start at left tackle, and he should be improved in his second season. The No. 2 overall pick struggled with an ankle injury before finally starting realize his potential. Just as he got up to speed, a Lisfranc injury prematurely ended his rookie year. Matthews is healthy now and is tailor-made for new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s zone blocking scheme. He’s not a people-mover as a run blocker and never will be, but Matthews can give Ryan backside security and play the angles in the run game better.

Right tackle finally got resolved with the emergence of Ryan Schraeder. He took over halfway through the season and immediately bolstered the right side in pass protection, shutting out the great Lions defensive line in his first start. Schraeder allowed just 3 sacks in 9 starts, two of those in the finale to a fired-up Panthers defense. The move to zone blocking in the run game should also help the third-year pro from Valdosta State, though he’ll never be more than average in that capacity. Atlanta even added much-needed depth by signing Tyler Polumbus, who has familiarity with Shanahan’s system from their days in Washington.

Inside? This is where the collective blood pressure of Falcons fans rises uncomfortably. After the first preseason game, the depth chart says Joe Hawley at center, flanked on the left by Mike Person and with Chris Chester to his right. Hawley, when healthy, is a functional starting center. He didn’t allow a sack in the seven games he started in the pivot in 2013 or the four in 2014 before he blew out his knee against Minnesota. Hawley and his mountain man beard appear recovered. If he can stay on the field the line will have some stability and competence in the middle.

How Shanahan and Quinn handle the guards will be telling. Jon Asamoah is the most talented guard on the roster, but he’s not a schematic fit and the depth chart reflects it. He sits behind Chester, a perfectly nondescript veteran who played under Shanahan in Washington. The Falcons have also used James Stone in place behind Chester, and that’s not a good sign for Asamoah. Stone was abysmal at center in his rookie year, and his heavy feet and oft-tardy punch don’t figure to work any better at guard. Person comes from St. Louis, where he barely played in four seasons after being a 7th-round pick out of Montana State. Ideally he’s the seventh lineman, versatile enough to handle a few series at just about any spot. It’s stretching to install him as a starter, though he cannot possibly be any worse than Peter Konz. One of GM Thomas Dimitroff’s biggest draft misses, Konz has flopped at both center and right guard since being Atlanta’s 2nd-round pick in 2012. He and Stone figure to be fighting for the same roster spot, though Asamoah not starting complicates matters.

3. Who steps up to help Matt Ryan and Julio Jones?

Ryan has firmly established himself as an upper-tier quarterback. He’s not an elite guy, but he’s proven he can make great throws in clutch situations and lead his team to division titles and playoff victories. Matty Ice was 8th in completion percentage, 5th in passing yards and 12th among qualifiers in QB Rating. He did that behind one of the worst conceivable offensive lines for much of the year. Ryan will be fine, and the Falcons are lucky to have him.

Jones is even better as a receiver than Ryan is as a quarterback. No objective fan would leave Jones out of the top 10 at his position. Only Odell Beckham had more yards per game last year, and Jones also finished second in that category a year earlier despite missing more than half the year. The durability is the only real knock on Jones, who has yet to play in 16 games in his four seasons. At 6’4”, 220 pounds and both strong and swift for his size, he’s a monster for opposing defenses to handle.

 

The weaponry around this dynamic duo has declined since the playoff days of 2010-12, however. Michael Turner was replaced by Steven Jackson, and now both Pro Bowl RBs are gone. Roddy White has aged out of the primary receiver role. Jones has risen up to seize that mantle, but White’s declining contribution doesn’t match what Jones offered as the #2. Harry Douglas, the #3 for years, is now gone. Tony Gonzalez offered a lot at the end of his Hall of Fame career at tight end, and he hasn’t really been replaced either.

Running back has potential, though it’s also a potential problem. Devonta Freeman flashed as a rookie out of Florida State, while the team also drafted dynamic Tevin Coleman from Indiana in the second round. Freeman averaged just 3.8 yards per carry on 65 rushes, but he didn’t get much help from the guys up front. He did catch the ball nicely and his powerful style fits well in Shanahan’s zone system. Coleman lit up the Big 10 at Indiana with his breakneck acceleration and ability to plant a foot and explode past defenders. He doesn’t make guys miss with wiggle or set up blocks particularly well, however, and those are skill she will have to learn to thrive in the NFL. Both have missed time in camp, which hasn’t allowed the offense to get comfortable yet.

White’s star has really fallen. His yards per reception has fallen over 3 yards from his four-year Pro Bowl run that peaked in 2010. The long speed has slowed, and he’s more reliant on pushing off and using veteran tricks to get open than physically whipping coverage like he did in his heyday. Don’t get me wrong; White remains a valuable contributor and a viable NFL starter, but he’s not the force he once was.

After White, there really isn’t much to get excited about. Devin Hester proved he can handle some slot duty in catching 38 passes a year ago and topped 500 yards receiving for the first time this decade. But that was as the fourth option and often with the defense spread out thin. Asking him to do it again a peg up the depth chart is something Bears fans can tell you is fraught with disaster. I am quite bullish on rookie Justin Hardy, the fourth-round pick from East Carolina. He’s a natural in the slot with toughness and litheness in space, though he’s not a dynamic athlete. Hardy can fill the chain-moving role normally associated with the No. 2 TE, and he often blocks like one too which can only help. Beyond Hardy the wideouts are all either practice squad refugees or special teams stalwarts.

I’m very down on the tight end position. Jacob Tamme, Levine Toilolo and Tony Moeaki combined to catch 53 passes for under 500 yards…as members of three different teams. Atlanta is going to try and cobble together something out of having three quality backup tight ends. Given that they only have one real playmaker at receiver, it’s not likely to contribute as much as what the offense needs from the position. The blocking should be better with Tamme and Moeaki, and Toilolo’s length can come in handy in the red zone.

Perhaps one of the tight ends grinds out a career year, or Hardy unexpectedly shows more playmaking ability than he did at East Carolina, or White has one of those odd late-career renaissance seasons. Any of those can happen. Heck, all could happen. But it’s not easy to count on, and the Falcons sorely need at least one to come to fruition.

4. Can the pass rush develop?

The 2014 Falcons were abysmal at generating pressure up front. Their sack percentage (sacks per opposing dropback) of 3.7 was the second-lowest in the league since 2009, spared ignominy only by the Bengals being a tad worse last year. At least that Cincinnati team had a strong secondary which could cover well. The Falcons back end couldn’t cover up the anemic pass rush nearly so well, and it led to some truly awful defense.

Fixing the pass rush is the most important thing the new coaching staff can do to turn things around. To that end, Atlanta used its first-round pick on edge rusher Vic Beasley from nearby Clemson. The speedy Beasley is lightning off the snap and flattens around the edge exceptionally well. Even better, he has shown he can create for himself in ways beyond just going real fast around the tackle. He’s immediately the most talented pass rusher on the roster by a wide margin, and I’m quite confident saying that even though he’s not played a regular-season snap yet.

That’s because Kroy Biermann and Malliciah Goodman are the returning starters at defensive end. Biermann led the Falcons with 4.5 sacks a year ago, and that’s pretty much maximizing his potential. Goodman has yet to record his first NFL sack entering his third season despite starting 10 games a year ago. Tyson Jackson, optimally a backup tackle, also plays some end. He didn’t notch a single sack in his first season in Atlanta. Given his lack of fast-twitch muscle, his career-high of four in 2013 in Kansas City seems safe. Jonathan Babineaux, like Jackson a hybrid end/tackle, chipped in two. He hasn’t topped 4 sacks in a season since 2009 and is now 33.

It would help a lot if 2014 first-rounder Ra’Shede Hageman took a big leap in his second year. The team brought him along slowly, averaging about 13 snaps per game. He did play better late in the season, but he needs to use his considerable athletic talents to better use. Hageman can be a major handful at 6’6”, 316 pounds and tremendous strength in tight quarters. He was a raw prospect coming out of Minnesota and the Falcons knew this. Yet he’s got enough natural athletic ability to contribute at least 3 sacks, 15 hurries and maybe a handful of tackles for loss in the run game. If Hageman remains a limited role player, it will be a significant disappointment.

More Jonathan Massaquoi would also make sense. He didn’t post big numbers but for my eyes he was far and away the most effective and creative pass rusher in Atlanta last year. He’s a detriment against the run, but he deserves more run as a package rusher.

5. How quickly can Dan Quinn put his stamp on this team?

The new Head Coach is a rookie in his role. He was highly coveted as Seattle’s Defensive Coordinator, the leader of a top-ranked unit studded with middle-round talents who blossomed into great contributors.

Here’s the rub. The man before him in that spot was Gus Bradley, who was equally as coveted as a head coaching commodity. He took over a dismal situation in Jacksonville and in two seasons has gone 7-25. While fans and a surprising amount of national media members still keep his star alit, the results just haven’t matched the hype as he tries to rebuild a team in his Seattle image.

Quinn faces a less daunting task in Atlanta; there are a lot more useful pieces on the Falcons than Bradley has even after two years in Jacksonville. But it’s still not a given his infectious energy and intricate, demanding defense will work. Hiring an experienced Offensive Coordinator in Shanahan was smart, though if you ask fans of his former teams they will laugh at that notion. Quinn hired a rookie coordinator to run his defense in Richard Smith, who heretofore has been a linebackers coach.

One of the key points Quinn has hammered home in camp is the need to go get the ball on defense. Increasing the takeaways would really help ease some of the pressure on the beleaguered defense. This was evident in their first preseason game, where the Falcons often went hard after the ball even after the whistle. That’s a good start, but it’s also a risk; if all that effort goes unrewarded, it dies a quick and painful death. See the recent Chicago Bears for an example.

It remains to be seen how Quinn manages within a game. It’s hard to imagine him being worse than Mike Smith, the man he replaced, but there are bound to be bumps in the road. There are playoff aspirations with this unit in what still looks like a very down NFC South. That’s extra pressure on the rookie coach.

Forecast: In a strange bit of scheduling, the Falcons open the year with four NFC East opponents in the first five weeks. They don’t draw a divisional opponent until a Week 6 trip to New Orleans. If the defense isn’t much improved right away, they could very well hit that game no better than 1-4. Then again, if they can exit New Orleans at 3-3 or better the Falcons are poised to get on a big run. Home dates with Indianapolis and Minnesota in Weeks 11 and 12 are critical.

I’m still worried about the defense. It will be better, but it has to be a lot better. I’m worried about the offense outside of Ryan and Jones. There is some intriguing potential, but the line and the depth trouble me. I trust Matt Bryant to kick a game-winning field goal or two, and that will help carry these Falcons to an 8-8 finish in Dan Quinn’s first season.