2014 Record: 8-8, 3rd in AFC East

Current +/- wins per LV Hilton: 9

Overall: Miami features one of the more talented young rosters in the league. With Ryan Tannehill steadily improving at quarterback and some intriguing new weapons on the perimeter, the offense has the potential to put up a lot of points. The line is still a big question but at least has better potential, while the running game is in good hands with Lamar Miller.

Defensively, adding Ndamukong Suh raises the bar. The front four looks quite formidable, as Suh and Cameron Wake make as good a 1-2 punch as any in the league. The young secondary will only get better behind what figures to be a great pass rush. The special teams aren’t too shabby, notably stud punter Brandon Fields.

With both Buffalo and New York facing serious QB questions and new coaches, Miami is the team best poised to finally catch the mighty Patriots in the AFC East. The Dolphins have only won three of the last 14 meetings with New England, but two of those have come in the last two games in Sun Life Stadium. It’s now or never for Joe Philbin, who has survived scandal and underwhelming outcomes to continue at the helm. 

Five Questions

1. Will the linebackers hold back a talented defense?

The front four looks great. The starting safeties are a strength, if Louis Delmas stays healthy (note: Delmas tore his ACL on Aug. 19). The corners carry some size and experience questions but have real talent and potential with guys like Jamar Taylor, Will Davis and new nickel back Brice McCain. Then there are the linebackers…

Miami has one legitimate NFL starter at linebacker in Koa Misi, and even the veteran from Utah is a bit of a MLB/WLB tweener. Misi is getting looks at both in camp, though it’s widely expected he settles back in the middle. He runs well and has shown a knack for timing his blitzes, both run and pass rush variety.

Jelani Jenkins can double that number of competent LBs is he builds upon an uneven 2014. He started his second NFL season well but fell off badly, getting lost in the blocking wash too often and losing his pass rush punch. He’s the best cover backer on the roster thanks to his quick reactions and football IQ. He just needs to play stouter and make more plays closer to the line. Lining up behind Suh and Wake will offer him plenty of opportunity to be a breakout player, but Jenkins must prove himself.

The rest of the depth chart presents real issues. This was supposed to be Dion Jordan’s domain, but the #3 overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft has been suspended for a full year for substance abuse violations. He was already an extreme disappointment, and his Dolphins--not to mention NFL--career is likely over.

Chris McCain and Kelvin Sheppard are engaged in a camp battle to see who is less of a detriment. McCain has the early leg based on his increased upside as a playmaker. Defensive Coordinator Kevin Coyle is trying to simplify some concepts and that will help the former UDFA from Cal to master the playbook. Sheppard has bounced around in his relatively young career and should be nothing more than a backup. Second-year player Jordan Tripp saw scant action as a rookie on both defense and special teams.

I do find a lot to like in the rookie class. Unfortunately, the likes of Jeff Luc and Zach Vigil are unlikely to see much action early on unless injuries force Joe Philbin’s hand. He’s notorious for wanting to bring rookies along slowly. Luc in particular could be a major steal, a downhill thumper who really came into his own as a senior at Cincinnati. 

2. How much impact does Ndamukong Suh bring?

When the Dolphins made Ndamukong Suh the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history this offseason, they did so with the expectation of major impact. It’s not just about the raw numbers from No. 90, either.

Suh is being counted on to turn a pretty good front line into an elite one. His presence is expected to ease the blocking pressure on end Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon, both of whom are high-level pass rushers. No longer can teams roll blocking to the corners, not with a wrecking ball like Suh inside. Wake has done well with guys like Randy Starks and Jared Odrick---both talented tackles in their own right--at harassing opposing QBs; he’s bagged 58 sacks in the last five seasons, including 11.5 a year ago. He’s got rare bend around the edge, even tacking wide around a tight end trying to help the poor offensive tackle. Lining him up next to Suh is a nightmare for the blocking up front.

That’s where Vernon comes in. His numbers a year ago (6.5 sacks) don’t stand out, but he’s emerging as a dangerous edge rusher in his own right. The former Miami Hurricane netted 11 sacks the prior year, but what stood out in 2014 was his improved all-around game. No longer was he “just” a pass rusher. It’s an interesting development because Suh himself went through a similar transformation at about the same point in his career. Vernon could be the guy who benefits the most from Suh. They still have intriguing former FCS stud Terence Fede in the fold for developmental depth too.

The tackle spot next to Suh is an inglorious position. Miami smartly opted to keep Earl Mitchell as the nose tackle instead of trying to force Odrick (now in Jacksonville) or another penetrator. In Detroit, the defense worked best when Suh could attack and the Lions sported a space-filling absorber next to him. As excited as the Suh/Nick Fairley pairing made the casual fans and announcers, Suh was much more effective with nondescript guys like Sammie Lee Hill or C.J. Mosley (a prudent recent Miami signing) next to him. Miami has that. They even have depth there with rookie Jordan Phillips, a second-round pick from Oklahoma who can be a very good pro if his balky back stays healthy.

One definite benefit is that the linebackers, notably the weakside backer, will have to deal with a lot less blocking. This ties in with Jelani Jenkins perhaps breaking out, as noted above. It also frees up safeties to blitz more, though that’s not been something Miami has done a lot with Reshad Jones, who has just four sacks in the last two years.

For more in depth on Suh, I wrote an open letter to Dolphins fans when he signed in Miami.

3. Can the offensive line step up?

Much here relies upon health. If left tackle Branden Albert bounces back from the torn ACL which cost him half of his inaugural season in Dade County, Miami’s offensive line will be a much stronger overall unit. Albert is the most gifted player on the line and the Dolphins sorely missed him.

The good news is there is a lot of youthful potential. Guys like Ju’Wuan James, Billy Turner, Jamil Douglas and Dallas Thomas have all been fourth-round picks or higher in the last three drafts, with James being the team’s first-rounder in 2014. As a draft evaluator I was generally bullish on all of them, notably Turner.

The bad news is that James and Thomas were awful a year ago. James was a turnstile when replacing Albert at left tackle. Thomas was even worse on the right side. They combined for a Pro Football Focus grade of -61.1, with both finishing in the bottom 10 at the tackle spot. The former Tennessee Volunteer teammates both have really struggled with the increased speed and complexity of the pro game. James is getting another shot at right tackle, and he should do better with a season under his belt. Then again, it’s hard for him to be any worse than he was at the end of last season.

Thomas appears to have lost his gig, probably permanently. Turner has stepped up in his second year, shining in camp and impressing in their preseason opener as well:

 

If you watched Miami at all last year, you’ll know the backside block is a foreign concept to Thomas. And James. And even center Mike Pouncey, who is a solid starter but often plays with blinders on as a run blocker. Turner struggled with making the jump from North Dakota State, as well as an early turf toe, only seeing action in the finale. Expect real improvement at left guard with Turner. Pouncey could also uptick with less to worry about on one side and more forced movement.

Thomas might not win the starting right guard position over Douglas, this year’s fourth-round pick. Douglas played left tackle at Arizona State in 2014 after moving from guard and wasn’t noted for his tenacity or playing strength. My camp spies tell me he’s not ready for prime time, but going against Suh and that strong DL every day in camp figures to be a major struggle. The “loser” of that battle projects as the top reserve lineman, so once again depth figures to be a major issue. The other top projected reserves, center J.D. Walton and tackle Jason Fox, have both missed significant time with injuries in their NFL tenures. 

4. Where does Ryan Tannehill go from here?

When I approached those who cover the Dolphins and asked them to contribute thoughts and ideas for this, every single one of them brought up Tannehill first and foremost. Friends like Pablo Knowles and Ian Wharton and others all essentially believe the fate of this team ultimately falls on just how much, if at all, the fourth-year QB progresses.

It’s genuinely hard to answer this question, and I say that as someone who has seen Tannehill as both a WR and QB in person at Texas A&M and is generally an advocate for his talent. His career arc has ascended nicely, but it’s going to be difficult to keep at this pace.

 

Comp. %

YPA

TD

INT

QB Rating

Rush Yards

2012

58.3

6.8

12

13

76.1

211

2013

60.4

6.7

24

17

81.7

238

2014

66.4

6.9

27

12

92.8

311

He has started every game in his three-year career, compiling back-to-back 8-8 seasons after going 7-9 as a rookie. Tannehill continues to impress with his improvement in seeing the field and processing the defense quicker, and his arm talent is quite impressive.

There is still room for growth. He takes too many sacks (139 in three years, including a league-high 58 in ’14), many of which could be avoided if he better anticipated the rush or got rid of the ball more promptly. There were ineffective end-of-game situations in losses to Green Bay, Detroit and Denver where the opponent came back to seize the lead and he just couldn’t answer, and didn’t appear all that composed in his urgency. His line often let him down. So did Mike Wallace, who was supposed to be a big-play wideout but never came close to justifying the hefty paycheck.

Now he has to deal with a new starting arsenal. Three of his top four targets from a year ago are gone. Only Jarvis Landry, impressive as a rookie, remains. Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills are an upgrade over Wallace and Brian Hartline…in theory. I like the concept here but how it pans out depends in part on how well Tannehill can thrive without having a real go-to No. 1 receiver. Maybe Landry becomes that, but I see him more like Jennings, a very good second banana to a strong top dog. Jordan Cameron can be a very good receiving tight end, but multiple concussions cloud his durability and upside at this point. Rookie wideout DeVante Parker hasn’t practiced yet, so expecting major contributions from the 14th overall pick in May is probably asking too much.

Fortunately the ground game looks solid. Lamar Miller topped 1000 yards on over 5 yards per carry last year. He’s also a good receiver out of the backfield. Considering his success behind the dilapidated line a year ago, Miller could hit 1250 yards and 10 TDs this year. That will help ease the pressure on Tannehill from having to convert so many third-and-long situations. Miami was 15th on third down a year ago but notably struggled in their losses.

Another area where Tannehill can improve is starting games stronger. Only four teams scored fewer 1st quarter points than the Dolphins a year ago. Even though Tannehill posted his highest completion rate in the first quarters, he didn’t often lead the team to paydirt. That came back to bite Miami in all those crushing losses when opponents rallied to overtake the tired Dolphins defense.

Matching last year’s completion percentage and TD/INT ratio is eminently possible. It would be nice if the YPA (ranked 28th a year ago) ticked up over 7.25, which might be tough with so many new targets. Avoiding more sacks and the dreaded lulls within games which have pockmarked his career would be even better. The talent is there to make it happen. Miami needs to see that talent realize its full potential in 2015 if the Dolphins are to as a team. A repeat of last year’s performance, while not bad, will not get this team to the proverbial next level. 

5. Is Joe Philbin a good enough coach to lift this team?

It’s somewhat amazing Philbin is still coaching this team. Nearly everyone expected his head to roll with the regrettable Martin/Incognito fiasco in 2013, an epic failure of leadership and team management by the man in charge of both. His teams have not hit their preseason win total projections in any of his three years, with no winning records and no playoffs. His team blew several second-half leads and he never seemed to have any answers for opposing adjustment. Philbin is not mediagenic either, which tends to matter when the heat gets turned up by the local talking heads.

Owner Stephen Ross has shown great patience and absorbed considerable criticism for standing by Philbin. While I typically favor organizational stability, it does beg the question “what has Philbin ever done to show he’s the right man for the job?” With a new person in charge over him in former Jets GM Mike Tannebaum, Philbin has no more rope.

He must show better in-game management acumen. He must demonstrate a better leadership structure. He must prove he can develop young talent to peak levels with guys like Stills, Ju’Waun James, Jenkins and Landry but especially Tannehill. This is a roster which sure looks like a playoff team. It’s on Philbin to make sure they’re firmly in that picture from September onward. Let’s just say his past performance doesn’t exactly inspire confidence he can get it done. 

Forecast: The schedule makers have set up the Dolphins with the potential to get off to a blazing start. They figure to be favored in the first five games, including the opening two road trips to Washington and Jacksonville.

They’ll need to win at least four of those games, because the final 9 weeks are the polar opposite. Starting with the Week 8 roadie to Foxboro in prime time, Miami might not be favored again. The final three games, all of which figure to be must-haves, are at San Diego and home for Indianapolis and New England.

I went through the schedule game-by-game three times, accounting for variables with more unpredictable opponents like the Bills, Giants, Eagles and Ravens. I never came up with fewer than 7 wins but also never topped 9. Unless Tannehill leaps into being a consistent top-10 QB and the defense finishes top-5 in takeaways, that’s the ceiling. Miami finishes 9-7 in 2015.