Last Week: 11-5, pushing the season tally to 119-57.

We have reached the time of year where weather plays a more distinct factor in many games. There is potential for rain and wind at several outdoor venues this week, and it’s just a matter of time before we see a game blanketed in white snow. Slick conditions tend to favor teams that throw a lot of short, quick passes and running backs that get north/south without a lot of dancing.

Thursday

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: In this week’s $.10, I chronicled the quandary that is the Atlanta Falcons. They keep on winning, but the margin of error and victory is perilously thin; seven of their 10 wins are by seven points or less. Here they get a chance at vengeance on the one team that has beaten them this year.

That fact brings up another conundrum. A set of them, actually. Does the earlier win give the Saints elevated confidence, or does it give the Falcons that much more motivation to go out and win? Which factor weighs more? How much does home field advantage mean, particularly in this rivalry? The Falcons can essentially clinch the division with a win here, not to mention going a long way towards wrapping up a playoff bye and home field advantage throughout. But the Saints desperately need a win to keep their fledgling but realistic playoff aspirations alive. New Orleans has won four in a row over the Falcons, so does that mean they “have their number” or does it mean that Atlanta is overdue for a win in the series?

I wish I could answer those questions, but the plain truth is that I’ll find out Thursday night, just like the rest of you. I give the Falcons a slight edge on the Xs and Os because the Saints defense, while improving, is still grossly unsuited to contain all of Atlanta’s offensive weapons. I think that trumps Atlanta’s weak pass rush, which I think can find some success against a New Orleans line that has really fallen off from recent vintages. Even though they literally didn’t touch Brees last time (the sack was a LB blitz where Brees tripped), I think the Beirmann will make a delivery or two. Still a very low confidence pick. Atlanta 34, New Orleans 32

Sunday's Games

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears: Seattle is perhaps the most schizo team in the league. At home they are a dominating, high octane machine that rolls nearly all comers. Their offense averages over 30 yards more at home, and they score eight more points a game at Qwest Field than at opposing venues.

Meanwhile, the Bears defense is 36 yards per game better at home, but here’s the most pertinent stat differential for this game: Chicago allows a 65.5% completion percentage on the road, good for 26th in the league. At home? They rank 2nd at 53.4%.

In short, you have one of the worst road teams in the league against one of the best home teams in the league. Don’t overthink the rest, folks… Bears 29, Seahawks 20

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: Packers fans are getting nervous about their team after the humbling blowout loss to the Giants. But that game featured a confluence of events that created a perfect storm against them. Obviously the Packers could have, and should have, played better, but the writing was sort of on the wall for that one.

If the Packers lose this game, then it’s time to panic. On paper, the Packers are ideally suited to crush their western neighbors. The Green Bay passing offense thrives on quick plays with the defense spread out, and that’s a real bad matchup for the Vikings. Minnesota’s safeties are inexperienced read-and-react guys, not great anticipators and not dynamic players. Aaron Rodgers should be able to carve them up like a yummy Thanksgiving leftover. Defensively, Vikings QB Christian Ponder really struggles with more complex coverage schemes, something the Packers often feature. With rookie corner Casey Hayward continuing to excel and with top Vikings weapon Percy Harvin iffy, I think we’re going to see the Green Bay defense bounce back very nicely.

That’s not to say Minnesota doesn’t have a chance. Any time you have Adrian Peterson in the backfield, you have a chance. That chance is greater when facing a soft Packers front that doesn’t anchor well and lacks range as a unit, while being backed by arguably the worst tackling corner in the league in Tramon Williams. And while Ponder often stinks, he has proven capable of being highly effective if he can get off to a quick start and get some confidence. With Clay Matthews likely out again, he will certainly have time to take some shots down the field and exploit Green Bay’s own problems with safety range and awareness in coverage. But Green Bay is at home in a rivalry game with significant playoff implications, coming off an embarrassing effort on national television. As long as the offensive line isn’t dreadful--and it very well might be just that--I think the focused Packers are going to put up more than enough points to squash the Vikings. Look for a big day from Randall Cobb in a variety of roles. Green Bay 36, Minnesota 24

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: New England is absolutely rolling, putting up over 40 points per game over the last month and doing it beyond just Tom Brady throwing the ball. Their defense has improved and is showing more opportunism, though Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill is unlikely to crash into his right guard’s butt and fumble. They sure appear to be in straight juggernaut form right now.

Yet there’s something about the Dolphins that makes me think they could keep this one close. I love the way they ran the ball right at the Seahawks last week. They have to feel confident after beating a strong team a week ago, and they know the Patriots well. I think their defensive front can have a good game and keep Brady from shooting Ugg adds in the pocket. Miami could be rainy on Sunday, which slogs down the breakneck offensive pace the Patriots like to deploy.

Still, I think the linemakers nailed this one by making the Patriots a touchdown favorite. New England has been much more reliable as a favorite this year, especially when the spread is under 10 like this game. That trend continues here. New England 28, Miami 20

Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions: The good news for Detroit is that Ndamukong Suh gets to play after his quasi-intentional kick to Matt Schaub’s man region. I’m happy that the NFL didn’t suspend Suh for that one, because it’s impossible to tell just how much intent he had there while being flipped over a blocker that wasn’t whistled for a hold. Then again, the officials didn’t see his foot hit Schaub’s package either.

To answer your question, hell yes I’m still bitter over the atrociously unacceptable officiating last Thursday. That is the kind of professional ineptitude that got FEMA Director Mike “Brownie” Brown fired after Katrina, the kind of gross strike against integrity of the game that led to the quick end of the prolonged officials lockout to begin the season. If any suspensions were to come from that debacle of a game, it should have been Walt Coleman’s inept officiating crew.

I’m very curious how the Lions respond here. The team knows very well they blew multiple chances to beat the very good Texans, and they squandered every one of them. With the playoffs now a cruel afterthought, I really wonder how disciplined and focused the Lions will come out. This is unquestionably to most mentally weak team in the league, from the head coach to the kick return specialist, and this situation calls for the utmost in mental toughness and gumption. I’m forecasting the Lions to win here because I think the Colts match up poorly against the Lions downfield offense and physicality on defense. I also think the Lions are simply too talented to be a 4-8 team and the Colts are just not talented enough to be an 8-4 team. Sometimes it just comes down to that kind of simplistic, eminently flawed thinking. Don’t be surprised if the Colts embarrass the Ford Field faithful though… Lions 30, Colts 21

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills: The Jaguars claimed Jason Babin off waivers, and indications are that the ex-Eagle will see plenty of action right away. You might be wondering why a lowly team like the Jaguars would have much interest in bringing in a one-dimensional edge rusher who has quickly worn out welcomes at numerous spots over the course of the last eight years. The Jaguars mark his sixth team since 2006, and this is the second time he’s been cut midseason in his career. The answer is that the price is right.

Babin does not come cheap for the rest of this season, as the Jaguars will pay him just under $1.7M for the final five games. But should he show some juice in those games, they got themselves a nice bargain for 2013. Babin’s signing bonus proration is already paid, and his contract of $4.325M next year is a veritable bargain for a guy who ranks 3rd in sacks over the last three seasons. By now the Jaguars know what they’re getting, a lone wolf speed rusher who is quite literally terrible at every other aspect of the game and doesn’t particularly care to work at resolving that. But if he can get even eight sacks and 20 QB pressures over a full 2013, Jacksonville has solved an ongoing issue and will be a better team for it while paying under market value compared to what Cliff Avril is going to get for producing about the same wherever he winds up (it won’t be Detroit). If Babin stinks again, they can sever ties ith minimal cap ugliness. It’s high time for something bold in Jacksonville and that involves taking risks like this.

Of course, Buffalo got bold and gave a blank check to Mario Williams to produce like Babin did in Philadelphia in 2011 (18.5 sacks). Last week’s 3-sack outburst pushed Williams to 8.5, not exactly the kind of production that merits $96M from a team headed to yet another sub-.500 season. Sometimes the calculated gambles don’t pay off, though Babin’s economic downside is a lot more favorable than the mess Buffalo created for itself with Super Mario. Bills 32, Jaguars 26

Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs: My 7-year old son Layne is finally progressing in his television viewing habits. He’s still been quite fond of Disney shows like Mickey Mouse and Jake & the Neverland Pirates even though he’s about three years past their target demographic (his 4-year old sister Elizabeth, currently watching Doc McStuffins in the next room). I can’t tell you how incredibly sick of those shows I have become while being work-at-home Dad. The theme songs from these shows haunt my nightmares and taunt me in department stores. So I’m thrilled that he has really taken a sharp interest in both Star Wars and the NBA. I nearly wept tears of joy when I came upon him watching NBA TV the other day instead of Octonauts for the 3,412d time, and his Xmas wish list is peppered with Star Wars stuff and a sudden keen interest in space. The thought that all the saccharine Disney Jr. crap is soon leaving my mental diet is sweeter than my recurring dream of getting a steamy massage from a henna-laden Jennifer Love Hewitt.

I would rather watch Octonauts for the 3,413th time than this game between two of the most disappointing teams of the past few seasons. A Jennifer Love Hewitt movie would be better too, except Heartbreakers. That movie was terrible. Carolina 20, Kansas City 16

Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets: Both these 4-7 teams finished the month of September in first place in their respective divisions. Think about that for a minute. In combining to lose twelve of their last fourteen combined games, including all seven by Arizona, these teams have fully entered finger-pointing and scapegoating season. It’s very easy to laugh at their misfortune…

…but I’m going in a different direction. In every bad season there are bright spots, and each team has one I’d like to highlight. The Jets have been pleasantly rewarded for their faith in Antonio Cromartie, who has really stepped up both the consistency of his effort and the maturity and leadership that have heretofore been foreign concepts. When Darrelle Revis went down early, many people (myself included) expected the worst from Cromartie, who made few friends in his San Diego days that ended with teammates openly lobbying for him to be removed from the equation. Assuming his newfound professionalism sticks, when Revis comes back next year the Jets are incredibly gifted at cornerback.

The Cardinals have a nice rookie success story in right tackle Bobby Massie. As highlighted this week in a nice piece on profootballfocus.com, Massie was a disaster in the early season. In PFF’s unique way of rating, Massie ranked 2nd to last in the league after four games. His technique was raw and he had no clue how to adjust to specific opponents. But the proverbial light bulb clicked on, and now Massie has gone three games in a row without allowing a sack. He’s still not great, but the fact he’s not terrible anymore is a real positive sign of progress that bodes very well going forward. It’s crazy that the Cardinals won the games where he was awful but have lost as he has improved, but that’s more coincidence than cause/effect.

As for the game, the first defense or special teams unit to score wins. I’ll give the Jets at home the very slight favor because they are much better in the return game. Jets 16, Cardinals 13

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams: How much you wanna bet this one doesn’t end in a tie? In fact, I expect a very different game from the first meeting a few weeks ago. For one, Colin Kaepernick is now starting at quarterback for the Niners instead of Alex Smith. The tradeoff for Smith’s experience and largely mistake-free play is that Kaepernick is a much more dynamic player. He threatens to go over the top of the defense, but he can also rip off large chunks with his own legs. It makes San Francisco a much different offense to prepare for, even if he will make more errors.

The Rams played the first game without rookies Janoris Jenkins and Chris Givens, who were deactivated by the team for disciplinary reasons. They got the message, as last week cornerback Jenkins scored two touchdowns on INTs while receiver Givens hauled in a nice TD catch of his own. As with the Niners, the Rams are a more dynamic team with these two additions from the first meeting.

I still think the talent gap between these two teams is awfully big. The Rams start about 8 guys who would be backups at best in San Francisco. That doesn’t mean the Rams aren’t talented; the Niners are simply stacked, particularly on defense. I prefer either Niners QB to Sam Bradford, who looks decent when given time but underwhelming when Plan A is taken away. Nobody takes away Plan A better than the San Francisco 49ers. San Francisco 27, St. Louis 10

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: The Titans fired Offensive Coordinator Chris Palmer this week after yet another disappointing, uninspired effort last week. It was the latest disappointment in a strangely long run for Palmer, who apparently benefits from the perception that he’s a good coach. But everywhere he’s been for the last 15 years his offenses have been below average. In Cleveland he was given the task of developing #1 overall pick Tim Couch. That flopped, and it goes beyond Couch; several different Browns players from that era have told me how ridiculously unrealistic their offensive plays were, that Palmer had no concept of how a defense would impact his offense. After two years, he moved to Houston, where he was charged with developing #1 overall pick David Carr. Carr is only spared from being more of a bust than Couch because Couch got hurt more severely. After three woeful years there, he moved to Dallas for a year best known for his stubborn clinging to the statue of former #1 overall pick Drew Bledsoe instead of rookie dynamo Tony Romo. He was fired with the rest of the Parcells staff after that season and went to the Giants, given the charge of developing #1 overall pick Eli Manning. Eli’s interceptions went up, his completion percentage went down, and he turned in the second-worst QB rating of his career. He then came to Tennessee with the task of developing Jake Locker, which hasn’t exactly gone well either. How many highly touted quarterbacks have to wither on Palmer’s vine before NFL GMs realize he’s just not very good at his job?

On the bright side, both Romo and Manning went on to much better things once Palmer was done with them. So don’t give up on Jake Locker just yet! Texans 31, Titans 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos: If the two versions of these teams that played last week show up, the visiting Bucs will smoke the Broncos. Tampa nearly knocked off Matt Ryan and the Falcons in a hard-fought, intense game. The Broncos struggled mightily to eke out a win against the Chiefs, the worst team in the league by more margin than the record indicates.

This is where we relish in the mastery of Peyton Manning. He did not have a strong game last week, though 285 yards and two TDs is a good game for the likes of Christian Ponder or even Andrew Luck. I fully expect Manning to excoriate his team for their flat performance a week ago and demand immediate improvement. He will start with himself, the critical but difficult measure of true leadership and greatness. In situations like that I’m always reminded of my favorite Michael Jackson song, ‘Man in the Mirror.”

I was never a big Michael Jackson fan but I wasn’t a hater either. I bought the “Thriller” cassette like everyone else in America, and his music holds up a lot better than most music from the 80s and early 90s. Man in the Mirror is a beautiful song about taking responsibility for oneself and changing the world by changing your own ways. That has a very practical application in football, particularly of quarterbacks. If a quarterback can’t look in the mirror and honestly evaluate himself and the spotlight that shines upon him (paging Cam Newton!) the team is going to suffer. Peyton Manning is the master of the minutiae of self-improvement and obsessive self-scouting. The Broncos will follow his lead. Denver 28, Tampa Bay 21

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: Normally this AFC North matchup is one of the toughest forecasts of the season, especially the game in Baltimore. But when Steelers coach Mike Tomlin uttered the phrase “right now Charlie Batch is our quarterback”, this forecast cleared up like a beautiful summer day on Chesapeake Bay. Batch was awful in the loss to Cleveland, unable to throw the ball down the field while throwing three picks. The Steelers defense will keep it interesting, especially since it sounds like Troy Polamalu will be back after missing almost the entire season so far. But as long as the QB matchup is Joe Flacco vs. Charlie Batch, the only pick is the Ravens at home. Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 13

Cleveland Brown at Oakland Raiders: If you’re looking for a reason why most draftniks and more than a few NFL decision makers loathe taking an inside linebacker very high in a draft, look no further that these two teams. Oakland’s Rolando McClain was the #8 pick in the 2010 draft out of Alabama, a rocked-up thumper with a throwback kind of mentality and style. If you could physically create an inside backer out of clay, it would closely resemble McClain’s physique. Cleveland’s D’Qwell Jackson went in the 2nd round of the 2006 NFL draft, and many pundits at the time bashed the Browns for spending that high of a pick on an undersized, hustle-and-flow kind of backer who relied on speed and staying out of traffic.

This week, Jackson was the AFC Defensive Player of the Week for yet another fantastic performance in the turnover festival that was the Steelers game. Meanwhile, the Raiders were ready to put McClain on waivers so they could claim Jason Babin when the aging, one-dimensional end was let go by Philadelphia. To go beyond Jackson, who would have been a higher pick if he were taller, McClain is quite clearly not any better than Browns UDFA rookie LJ Fort, a player so obscure that this draftnik never saw one bit of tape on him.

Look for D’Qwell Jackson and his defensive mates to have another strong outing here. They’re not going to force eight turnovers again, but getting half that many is eminently possible given Carson Palmer’s poor decision making. Even though both teams are 3-8 there is a decidedly different feel to them; Cleveland is a try-hard team that is learning the ropes but needs more talent and experience in a lot of spots, while Oakland features several underperforming talents that don’t seem particularly interested in team success. That’s a gross generalization, but if the shoe fits. On a completely tangential note, it’s been 32 years since Red Right 88 and Don Cockroft. I feel old. Browns 24, Raiders 21

Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers: Sometimes it’s all about perspective. Many Bengals fans bemoan the long and relatively mediocre tenure of head coach Marvin Lewis. Now in his 10th season at the helm, Lewis has three playoff appearances with no wins and a 75-79-1 overall record. Those are numbers that would get a coach run in far fewer years in most locations, but Lewis soldiers on in Cincinnati. Bengals fans often wonder how much better they could be with a better coach, but they also know Lewis has achieved decent success given the organizational, uh, issues.

Yet fans in San Diego would kill to have Marvin Lewis as their coach instead of Norv Turner. In Norv’s six-plus seasons, the Chargers are 53-38 and have won three playoff games. They have won five division titles and were a whisper away from a Super Bowl in 2007. That is undeniable success, but it’s widely regarded as a flaming pile of stinky failure by Chargers fans, not to mention the vast abundance of national media. Turner almost certainly won’t be back, while Lewis recently got a contract extension. Like I said, perspective. Chargers 24, Bengals 23

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: Now that the Eagles have officially entered playing for the future instead of the present, it’s real hard to see them competing with a team that desperately needs a win like the Cowboys. Nick Foles is not inspiring much confidence as a long-term solution at QB, and now he must operate sans Desean Jackson, who hit IR this week with broken ribs. Jackson was the one receiver who could turn a simple 8-yard curl into a 70-yard touchdown. At least rookie RB Bryce Brown showed a real spark in the ugly loss last week, when he wasn’t fumbling.

Dallas has some injury woes of its own that should give Eagles fans some hope. And the Eagles have a nice history of humiliating Tony Romo in late-season games. But I really can’t see the Eagles depleted offense finding much success at all, and Demarcus Ware could realistically get five sacks in this game alone. Great week to have the Dallas defense in salary cap fantasy leagues, and not a bad week to use the Cowboys in survivor fantasy games. Cowboys 28, Eagles 13

Monday

New York Giants at Washington Redskins: Before you get too wrapped up in the euphoria of the Giants crushing win over the Packers last week, keep in mind what happened last year. In their second meeting of the season, the 4-9 Redskins, losers of 8 of their last nine, went to New York to play the Giants. New York had broken out of a midseason slump a week earlier by beating the Cowboys, and everyone thought all was well again for Tom Coughlin’s team.

Washington won that game 23-10 with Rex Grossman throwing two INTs and the Redskins running the ball 40 times at three yards per carry. It would be the last game the Giants would lose the rest of the season, including their roll through the playoffs. RG3 is better than Rex Grossman, an understatement along the lines of saying a tornado is windy. In the first meeting this year, the Redskins were the better team for the bulk of the day but were undone by making several key mistakes at critical times. They’ve largely cleaned up those issues the past couple of weeks. Washington leads the league in offensive efficiency and has improved upon that mark the past two weeks. They are absolutely poised to pull off the upset.

Having said that, the Giants are the pick. I like that they faced a mobile quarterback in Aaron Rodgers last week and thoroughly frustrated him. I like that they faced a 3-4 defense last week and plowed through it like a sharp machete through a roll of Charmin Ultra Soft. I like that they rank 3^rd in penalty yard differential and the Skins rank 29th. I also really like the G-Men rising to the occasion in prime time; nobody does it better. New York 33, Washington 30

Back to School

Alabama 20, Georgia 18

Stanford 25, UCLA 21

Northern Illinois 38, Kent St. 33

Louisville 27, Rutgers 20

Wisconsin 22, Nebraska 20

Florida State 44, Georgia Tech 17

Kansas State 36, Texas 24

Follow @JeffRisdon