By Jeff Risdon/RealGM

Last Week: 12-2, and while that’s pretty good it could have been 14-0; I switched my pick on both the MIA/BUF and STL/NYJ games in the process of writing last week’s column. 108-52 on the season as I count the tie as a loss. 

As a Lions fan, football is an integral part of Thanksgiving for me and my family. I hope everyone can enjoy a good meal, some good friends or close family, and some good football this Thursday and over the holiday weekend. 

Thursday's Games

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions: There might not be a more dangerous opponent for the Lions than the Texans, who have a balanced offense with a variety of weapons and a fundamentally sound defense that doesn’t break down often. It’s a bad time for drama, but lately that seems to be what the Lions do best. 

Left tackle Jeff Backus is poised to miss the first game in more than a decade after leaving Sunday’s tough loss to Green Bay with a hamstring injury. First round pick Riley Reiff was hit and miss in relief against the Packers, but he has an uphill battle in facing Defensive Player of the Year candidate JJ Watt, with dangerous Connor Barwin lined up behind him. It would be easier if Detroit had its full complement of weapons, but Titus Young has been suspended by the team for the second time this year. Young reportedly was the progenitor the sideline riff between WR Coach Shawn Jefferson and OC Scott Linehan, and his lackadaisical approach to route running and truculent persona are causing far more problems than his underwhelming production justifies.

None of this will help Matt Stafford, who continues to mystify with his inconsistent play and slow starts. Last week’s 1-for-6 for three yards is a recipe for doom against the Texans. If the Lions are to win, Stafford must play 60 minutes at or near his peak. It would be especially helpful if he could do better in the red zone, though Mikel Leshoure was able to show some vitality with a tough TD run last week. You’re not going to beat the Texans with a series of Jason Hanson 36-yard field goals.

That’s especially true if Matt Schaub is on top of his game like he was last week. Schaub threw for 527 yards, tied for the second most in NFL history. Given the Lions issues locating the ball in the air, it’s a great week to have Schaub, tight end Owen Daniels, and WR Andre Johnson in fantasy football. Oh yeah, they have this guy Arian Foster too. You might have heard of him; he’s a pretty good running back.

Great, another Thanksgiving Day meal ruined by a humiliating Lions loss. I can taste the bitter stuffing now. Texans 30, Lions 24

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys game on Thanksgiving reminds me of my extended family, or rather my wife’s extended family. Most of them are dyed in the wool Detroiters, and because the Lions have a lengthy history of losing the early game we always wound up seeking solace in having the Cowboys lose the later game. Her Uncle George and his family would cheer just as hard for whoever was playing the Cowboys as they did for the Lions. Maybe it was the wine, which had been flowing for hours by kickoff. But when I was just “that new boyfriend” rooting against the Cowboys was a nice “in” for me with the new family.

We’ve been married for over 16 years now, and most of that family is now beloved and trusted family for me too. On this Thanksgiving I will be with my own family in Cleveland, but we will also be bonding over rooting against the Cowboys. I know it’s unprofessional, and in my case it’s not totally sincere hatred, but sometimes we do things because our family demands it of us. With Washington having a charismatic leader like RG3, it’s that much easier to cheer against America’s Team.

All that rooting won’t make it happen, however. I think Dallas will exploit the soft Washington secondary and ride the crest of emotion for defending the home field on national television. At least we won’t be subjected to John Madden waxing poetic about Troy Aikman’s aesthetics, or the glory days of Preston Pearson and Everson Walls. Dallas 27, Washington 23

New England Patriots at New York Jets: The Jets finally showed why there was such optimism in the Big Apple for this team. Mark Sanchez looked steady and poised, his wideouts showed a surprising ability to get open against a pretty good Rams secondary, and the defense proved they could make some plays. But the most important gleaning from the win in St. Louis was that the Jets could overcome early adversity and rally around one another for a crucial win. It was everything the Jets season was supposed to be but has not--a cohesive, efficient team punctuating grinding football with enough big plays on both sides of the ball to hard-fought wins.

They’ll need a lot more of that if they want to hang a loss on the hated rival Patriots. With Rob Gronkowski out with a broken forearm, the defense stands a much better chance of making that happen. The front, led by surging second-year end Muhammad Wilkerson, can go a long way towards that by getting pressure on Tom Brady and not allowing the running backs to get a head of steam before hitting the secondary. 

I’ll admit it: I’m a sucker for the Jets and their completely unfounded confidence when they play the Patriots. Even though New England is always the better team, the Jets tend to play up. Or rather, they did play up; the last few meetings have sort of curbed that tide, but not the confidence of Rex Ryan and his charges. There really shouldn’t be any way for the Jets to compete here, as the Patriots lead the league in turnover margin (+20) and in offensive yards per game. Yet for some reason I expect this to be close, and if the Jets can get a special teams play or help from the officials, they absolutely have a chance to pull off the unexpected. Of course it could also be a complete cold-hearted annihilation by New England, which would love nothing more than to step on the throat of their perennial tormentors. Patriots 32, Jets 21 

Sunday Games

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants: A potential NFC Championship game preview, and a look back at a major playoff disappointment for Green Bay a year ago. There are a host of intriguing story lines surrounding this game. 

The Giants come off their bye week having lost two in a row. Eli Manning has been horrible in those losses and the two preceding wins, with one TD and six INTs and three lost fumbles in those games. Because the Giants still cannot run the ball, when Eli is not great the offense is largely inept. His receivers haven’t helped him with some bad drops and missed reads, but until Eli gets back to being Eli-te, the Giants have no chance of beating a team as skilled as the Packers.

Aaron Rodgers went through a similar slump earlier this year, though not close to that extent. He also has little running game to bail him out when he and his wideouts aren’t playing great. Rodgers has not had great protection, and his receivers are prone to stretches of egregious drops. For as much as Eli has struggled, it’s even more baffling to me that Rodgers ranks outside the top 12 in yards per attempt and has been sacked more than any other QB (32 times). This is not the Aaron Rodgers of last year, the guy who laughed at pressure and repeatedly delivered perfect strikes down the field to a barrage of receivers.

But just as Eli has not been great but still very good overall, so has Rodgers. He made a couple of throws last week against Detroit that Eli cannot, and despite the relative struggles Rodgers has still thrown 27 TDs already. The Giants secondary is very good at intercepting the ball but lousy at pretty much everything else. As long as Rodgers can avoid throwing more than one INT, he should have a field day even with the Giants bringing the heat with JPP & Friends. He’ll need to have a big day because the Packers certainly cannot rely on winning a kicking battle with the unexpectedly employed Mason Crosby struggling so badly.

Tough call, this game is. I really like the Packers and the roll they are on, but I think I like the Giants at home with so much on the line even more. I suspect if they played 10 times each team would win five. Giants 24, Packers 21

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: Even though I’m not a Niners fan, perhaps nobody was happier than me to see Colin Kaepernick look so darn good in his starting debut on Monday Night Football. Kaepernick was my 2nd rated quarterback in the 2011 draft and it greatly pleased me to view his progress. It was just one start, but it sure appears as if the Niners have themselves a legit franchise QB for the future.

Of course that somewhat complicates the present, what with Alex Smith still being around and potentially back for this game. It’s better to have a problem with overabundance, but it still presents a challenge. I think Jim Harbaugh is a very good coach, but the way he handled the post-game questions about his quarterback issue were a sign of weakness and unexpected haphazardness that can fester into a problem. It’s a very timely issue, because whichever QB plays against the truly abominable Saints pass defense is going to look very good.

It’s really amazing the Saints have recovered so vibrantly form their 0-4 start with their defense still being so eminently beatable. It’s a testament to offensive firepower and forcing turnovers on defense. That is a lethal combination for most opponents, and the Saints do both better at home in front of the raucous partisans. But the Niners have a special defense that won’t give Drew Brees time to hit those longer-developing routes, and running the ball is almost out of the question. If Kaepernick plays, his stronger downfield arm results in a San Francisco 36-28 victory, while if Smith plays, flip the score around. I hate doing contingency predictions like that, but it makes such a difference in this case that I must.

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins: The reeling Dolphins host Seattle in a game that will be an excellent validation test for the Seahawks. Seattle has been excellent at home but is just 1-4 on the road. If they truly want to be viable playoff contenders, they must win games like this on the road.

I think Seattle stands an excellent chance here. The wheels have really come off in Miami since the loss to the Colts, and the mechanic is apparently off duty right now. The offense is clearly running on some flat tires. A week after managing just a sole field goal against a porous Titans defense, Miami turned the ball over three times and scored just one late TD in a punchless loss to Buffalo, which gave up 93 points in the previous three weeks. The Seahawks defense ranks 6th in sack percentage and has improved on 3rd down efficiency lately, though they’re much better at home than on the road. On the other side, I like Russell Wilson and his receivers to find some holes and seize some opportunities. I think this will be a low-scoring, hard-to-watch affair between the two rookie QBs and teams heading in opposite directions. Seattle 19, Miami 16 

Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals: Oakland waived LB Aaron Curry on Tuesday, which is noteworthy because Curry was the #4 overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. Seattle picked him there, and he was almost universally regarded as a very safe bet to be a pretty good player. The Seahawks dealt him to the Raiders last year, but he didn’t make one of the worst defenses in the league any better in Oakland. 

There is a lesson here for armchair draft analysts. Curry lacked special traits and great athleticism; he was a kind of throwback linebacker, a read-and-react information processor who excelled at finishing off tackles. Even at Wake Forest he didn’t make a lot of impact plays, and the weight of lofty draft expectations ruined him. Curry was not a bad NFL player, but he failed to be an above-average player and relied upon playing behind good players to let him roam free. A first round pick needs to be better than an average starter, and Curry just isn’t that guy. I’m surprised the Raiders completely gave up on him instead of parking him on IR with his erstwhile gimpy knee, but the message is that they would rather try someone with a higher ceiling but also a lower floor. They are in the overwhelming majority in that case. Keep that in mind as you formulate mock drafts, the potential impact of the player. The greater the high-end impact, the more momentum a player will have than someone who can become merely good, even if the good player might wind up being better. Bengals 33, Raiders 27

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: An Atlanta win here all but wraps up the NFC South for the Falcons, who are perhaps the most tenuous 9-1 team in league history. They continue to win but do so in pretty underwhelming fashion. Even an ugly win in Tampa would be a legitimate accomplishment, as the Bucs are playing some of the best football in the league over the past month.

One of two things is going to happen here. Either the Falcons are going to come out and put on an awesome display of superiority and soul-crushing dominance, or the Bucs are going to show they are legit playoff threats by taking better advantage of the Atlanta mistakes than other teams have been able to do all year. I will not discount the former, but I would bet strongly on the latter. I would also bet strongly on the “over” here. Matt Ryan won’t throw 5 picks again, but even one might be too many against a ruthlessly efficient and versatile Bucs attack that knows how to finish drives. Buccaneers 29, Falcons 27 

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Monday night was a nightmare for Jason Campbell at Bears QB, as the offensive line gave him no protection and his receivers struggled to separate on the few occasions when he had time. Now they have to face Jared Allen, Kevin Williams, and a Vikings team that knows they need to bring the pressure defensively if they want to win. Cutler might want to sit this one out as well for his own personal well-being.

Yet as much as Chicago’s offense could be a major problem, this game is all about how well Minnesota QB Christian Ponder plays against the aggressive, opportunistic Bears defense. Ponder has had games of near-brilliance interspersed with games where you wonder how he even started in college, let alone the NFL. There really is no rhyme or reason for why his play fluctuates so dramatically other than Ponder is just plain streaky. Soldier Field is a real tough place to try and get on a hot streak, though having Adrian Peterson in the backfield means the Vikings are never out of a game, even when Ponder is dreadful. Peterson builds on his amazing comeback, but it won’t quite be enough. Bears 20, Vikings 13

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts: I’m writing this in the wake of playing backyard football with my kids and their cousins. My 4-year-old daughter Elizabeth loves nothing more than rushing the passer and sacking Daddy the QB, which got me thinking. I found it illustrative of just how hard it is to deliver a good throw even when it’s only a 41-pound princess at your knees. I can’t imagine someone seven times her mass bearing down on me with bad intentions. I like to criticize quarterbacks for struggling to handle that kind of pressure, when here I am a reasonably athletic guy and having my 4-year old charging at me makes my throws errant. I’m going to try and keep that in mind as I watch Andrew Luck and Ryan Fitzpatrick duel here, because both tend to make some seriously ponderous throws when under what doesn’t seem like a lot of pressure. Colts 35, Bills 31

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: To illustrate how poor the Jaguars offense has been this year, consider they racked up a season-high 458 yards and still rank dead last in total offense. They also gave up over 600 even though Arian Foster had a ho-hum 77 yards and no touchdowns.

Such is the case of the Jaguars; at their best on offense, their defense wasn’t good enough to win. In games where the defense has played well enough to win, the offense has done nothing but lose those games. The Titans are very inconsistent from week to week, but unless they are at their stinkfist worst they have enough to win here. I think Chad Henne gives Jacksonville a better chance, but it’s no greater than a 35% chance they win. Titans 30, Jaguars 24

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: If ever the Browns were going to notch a rare victory in this series, this is the time to do so. Pittsburgh is on its third string QB, Charlie Batch, and is thin enough at wide receiver that they brought in Plaxico Burress. If Batch becomes the third straight Steelers QB to get broken ribs in as many weeks, the next man up is, uh, hmmm…

Cleveland is the undisputed champion of the “close but no cigar” brigade. Last week was an excellent example. The Browns surged out to an early 14-0 lead but couldn’t seal the deal and wound up losing to Dallas in overtime. It was the latest in a series of frustrating outings where the Browns played well enough to win but not well enough to not lose. Another close but no cigar finish here puts a final nail into Pat Shurmur’s coaching coffin, though I suspect his fate is already sealed regardless. I think Cleveland gets one here. If not now, when? Browns 23, Steelers 19 

Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers: I’m not sure that Baltimore is much more talented than San Diego overall. When Joe Flacco is on top of his game he’s probably a little better than Philip Rivers, and the Chargers don’t have an answer for Ray Rice, but the difference really isn’t all that stark. What is a stark contrast is how these teams wind up playing most weeks. The Ravens find ways to win and always seem composed and in control of their own fate. The Chargers frequently look like a team that dreads the next inevitable failure and play with the tightness of a team trying too hard to not lose.

I still expect that the Chargers have one more really strong effort in them this year. And it’s likely to come against an unexpected opponent like the Ravens, a true spoiler game opportunity for San Diego. I have a lot less confidence in Baltimore winning here than I thought I would. The bookies agree, installing the Ravens as just one point favorites. They respect the potential in San Diego, and you should as well. San Diego 27, Baltimore 25

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: I suppose that if lowly Jacksonville could push mighty Houston deep into overtime last week, the Chiefs could do the same to the Broncos this week. Nah. Broncos 33, Chiefs 12

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: Will the Cardinals win another game after their 4-0 start? Will they settle on a quarterback, and will said quarterback throw the ball for more than 5 yards per attempt, something they have not accomplished in a month? Will the Rams finally escape the NFC West cellar, where they have resided for what seems like eons? Will the Rams ever recover another fumble, as they have just once this year?

The answers, in order: Probably not, doubtful for part A and maybe once more this season for part B, absolutely, and it seems impossible that it won’t happen. This contest will solidify questions one, three and four, and keep the second question an ongoing nightmare for the Cardinals faithful. St. Louis 20, Arizona 15 

Monday Night

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles: Welcome to the NFL, Nick Foles. Against a pretty lousy Washington pass defense, you struggled to do much of anything positive and your Eagles team largely failed to support you. Now you must face the similarly disappointing Panthers, and will likely do so without the concussed LeSean McCoy. 

The ESPN folks must be sizzling mad that this once-promising affair is now the biggest turkey of the Week 12 schedule. Five combined wins, just one of those since September, is a very shocking development for these two teams that were widely considered playoff material. Instead of being must-watch TV as a high-flying matchup between two surging teams, this is now a schaudenfreudistic train wreck. We will watch to see which team has sunk lower. I think the Eagles are the answer, with their starting backfield out with concussions and their wildly inept offensive line making them arguably the worst team in the league over the last month. Carolina 26, Philadelphia 10