By Jeff Risdon

Last Week: 9-5. Season forecast is 60-31. I won big on Cleveland and Green Bay last week, but choked on the Giants slaughtering San Francisco and Tennessee upsetting Pittsburgh. The home underdogs conbtinue to bark away! 

Thursday

Seattle Seahawks (5) at San Francisco 49ers (7): With the inevitable decline of the bumbling Cardinals, this shapes up as the key NFC West game for the next few weeks. The Niners have looked decidedly ordinary against better teams, and the Seahawks certainly fit that bill. The Giants thrived by bringing pressure with only the front four, something the Seahawks statistically do better than anyone else. Seattle also has a diverse passing attack without a real primary target, and that kind of game has given San Francisco trouble in coverage. So have quarterbacks who look to throw down the field when outside the pocket, like Russell Wilson did so well last week. The Seahawks proved their chutzpah last week with a gritty win over the Patriots, with Wilson keeping calm under duress and providing the sort of inspired mettle you would expect from a 10-year veteran.

So why is it that I think San Francisco is going to run away and hide with a victory here? I believe that Jim Harbaugh has made his charges keenly aware of all of the above. Their defensive line has not been real effective in their losses, and the shrinking of Aldon Smith is downright alarming. With so much importance on this game, I believe Harbaugh will have the Niners a lean mean fighting machine. Expect some twists and wrinkles, like more of Colin Kaepernick as Wildcat and more fire zone blitzes and overloads to keep Wilson off balance. I think David Akers will get his act together under the mild threat of losing his job as kicker after some decidedly unimpressive outings. I also like a couple of more ethereal factors. First, the home team almost always wins in this series, seven of the last eight and 16 of the last 20 in their meetings. Second, San Francisco has proven very resilient after losses under Harbaugh, while teams coming off big fourth quarter comebacks tend to significantly sag the following week when they hit the road. I look for the Niners defense to score some points in this game as they answer the bell and defend their NFC West supremacy. San Francisco 23, Seattle 10.

Sunday Games

Sunny Game of the Week:

Washington Redskins (12) at New York Giants (2): Lost in the hubbub over RG3’s Usain Bolt-like touchdown scamper last week is that he is already one of the best passers in the entire league. He is the third rated passer in terms of QB rating and his 70.2% completion rate leads the league. Griffin’s QB rating would be even higher if he threw more than five touchdowns, less than a paltry one per game, which gives you an idea of how consistently well he throws the ball and moves the chains. I think that dual-threat action presents huge problems for the Giants. But last week, New York dominated a much better 49ers line than the one fronting Griffin, and playing at home should keep some of that momentum flowing.

I smell a letdown here for New York. Last week’s overwhelming dominance is just not sustainable, and the Giants have shown a rather frustrating propensity for running very cold at times. Last year against Washington is a prime example; Rex Grossman beat the eventual Super Bowl champs twice. The Giants have a rare early season lead in the NFC East, though a loss here would even up the standings. And that got me thinking… 

New York has a great chance to pick up some unusual breathing room in the NFC East. A win here would put them two full wins ahead of the Balkanizing Eagles and two plus the head-to-head tiebreaker with these Redskins. That kind of comfort is something that Tom Coughlin teams have never really enjoyed, and I think they realize how important it might be for when they have one of their patented cold spells. The 5.5 points seems generous, but I do like the Giants to win at home.New York 29, Washington 28.

Baltimore Ravens (11) at Houston Texans (3): This game pits the top two teams in the AFC, the only two teams in the conference with winning records. Yet, it loses a lot of luster with Baltimore losing venerable Ray Lewis and underrated Lardarius Webb from their overrated defense.

Yeah, I said it: the Ravens defense is overrated. Any time a unit gives up more than 200 yards rushing two weeks in a row, there is no positive adjective that is applicable. Now they’ve lost their spiritual, emotional, and tactical leader in Ray Lewis and their top cover corner and secondary tackler in Webb. Regardless of Lewis’ obvious decline, they’re going to miss his prescient ability to decipher plays just by the alignment and his intimidation factor in the middle of the field. Practically, they’ll probably miss Webb a lot more, particularly against Houston. It’s not so much that Andre Johnson will beat them any easier, because I think Johnson has declined more precipitously than Lewis; the burst is gone and lateral quickness has never been Johnson’s calling card. But because the Texans do so many things inside out, be it Arian Foster runs, flares to Foster or James Casey, or Owen Daniels on the outside of the seams, the Ravens need all hands on deck to tackle and/or force the action to the help inside. Webb quietly did those things very well, making him a unique commodity amongst their corners.

I also really like the matchup of JJ Watt going against Michael Oher. The Blind Side man is still adjusting to life on the left side, while Watt is playing at a level that few Hall of Famers have ever achieved before. Watt leads the league in sacks despite playing a position that is not usually noted for getting a pass rush. He leads the league in run stuffs for loss. He leads all defensive linemen in solo tackles. He is tied for sixth in the league in passes defended, the only non-defensive back in the top 40. To put it in perspective, through six games Watt has more production in all those categories than the mighty Pittsburgh Steelers have received from their right defensive ends…in the last three seasons combined! Watt moves all over the formation as well, which means it’s hard to provide help to slow him down. I like Houston to bounce back in a big way here, even though Baltimore has perennially had their number. They also have return man Jacoby Jones playing against his former team, and their parting wasn’t exactly amicable. Still, Jones is more apt to fumble away an opportunity than cash in another 108-yard record breaker. Texans 27, Ravens 14.

Green Bay Packers (6) at St. Louis Rams (20): A devoted Texans fan friend of mine (hi Larry!) greeted me on Tuesday not with any pleasantries, but an inquisition as to why the Texans couldn’t protect Matt Schaub better, and how the Packers relatively crappy offensive line kept Aaron Rodgers free from pressure almost all night. The first question was easier: Green Bay did a lot of looping and stunting that allowed their defensive linemen to attack gaps more than they typically do, which kept the Texans tackles off balance and opened up blitz gaps inside for AJ Hawk. The second one was more of an anomaly, a bad night for Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin (having too many of those this year) and beleaguered holding machine Bryan Bulaga playing his best game of the year. Houston offers no interior rush threat and it allowed the guards to focus on helping outside, with one often dropping back quickly to provide extra help for when the tackles did get beat wide. 

The first answer above is a creative wrinkle that shows that maybe Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers isn’t quite ready for the glue factory just yet, as many Cheeseheads have feared. He correctly ascertained that Houston would devote extra attention to Clay Matthews and that interior games would be more disruptive. If it worked against Houston’s good line, imagine what sort of havoc they can wreak upon a St. Louis line that starts Wayne Hunter, Barry Richardson and Quinn Ojinnaka.

Keeping Rodgers clean will be tougher. Robert Quinn has played very well opposite Chris Long, he of the relentless motor and barrage of pass rush moves. The Rams are very adept at bringing delayed blitzes, waiting for the guards to commit to help and then attacking the vacated hole. They also have a secondary that can stay tight in man coverage long enough to produce coverage sacks and pressures. Rodgers will have to work much harder to earn any gaudy statistics in this one after his relatively easy six TD outing in Houston. But something I saw in Rodgers Sunday night makes me believe very strongly he is getting back to his 2011 form. The sly smile was back in full force, indicating the swagger and functional arrogance were back as well. He knew he was awesome and dared the staunch Houston D to try and stop him, laughing at them when they tried their best and he still ripped them apart like a bobcat on a wounded rabbit. That is the quality that elevated Rodgers to MVP status from being merely awesome, and if it’s truly back the Rams have no chance, even at home. Packers 38, Rams 24.

Dallas Cowboys (23) at Carolina Panthers (30): Carolina has been a hot mess all year, and I think they got their bye at just the right time. Hopefully, the coaches can refocus the team on what made them successful (relatively speaking) last year, namely running the ball with their high-priced stable of backs. It’s downright stupid that Cam Newton leads the team in rushing yards, or that he has more attempts than Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert combined. Some of that is on Newton needing to make better decisions, ceasing to try and score a touchdown on every play and instead take more time off the clock and be more conservative and efficient. But the coaching staff needs to stick to the run more frequently even when behind, because Newton needs some help and the offensive line would appreciate a bone here and there.

On the Dallas side of the coin, last week’s choke job on the heels of the Romo INT-fest the week before is really demoralizing. Losing DeMarco Murray with a foot injury only puts more pressure on Romo, and that’s never a good thing. Carolina’s defense has been largely lousy, but coming off a bye they will at least be rested and have an opponent-specific game plan to work with. It’s always dangerous to write off the Cowboys, who have been down this river before and found some fortuitous paddles. But the theme from Deliverance is playing prominently in the background, and Jerry Jones has squealed like a pig on occasion. Granted that was for his beloved Razorbacks, but hillbilly sodomites really don’t care about your collegial loyalties when they’ve got you where they want you. Carolina 27, Dallas 26.

New York Jets (17) at New England Patriots (9): Remember when the Rex Ryan Jets had wild success against New England? For some reason there are a lot of rather talkative folks who seem to think that spirit has carried on. Muppet News Flash! The Patriots have won the last three regular season meetings 112-50, and those were against Jets' teams with a lot more positives going for them than this bunch. 

Before you Jets' fans get your bloomers in a bunch, last week’s success came at the expense of the Colts, who don’t have a defensive lineman on their roster that will be with the team when they are a legit playoff contender. The Revis-less defense was impressive, but Andrew Luck has not been all that, a bag chips, or a bowl of grits thus far save one strong week (see the Colts/Browns preview!). In short, I’m disinclined to believe that last week’s romp was anything more than seizing upon a very favorable matchup at an opportune time. These Patriots are not as strong as most recent editions have been either, but the New England run defense is very good and Tom Brady is still Tom Freaking Brady. Statement game for the Patriots, who for some reason I keep typing as “Patritos” today… New England 35, New York 16.

Cleveland Browns (27) at Indianapolis Colts (26): There is a very intriguing example of perception vs. reality involving the quarterbacks in this game. If you went by the national media treatment alone, you would think that Andrew Luck has been worthy of deification while Brandon Weeden should be relegated to the scrap heap with the Brady Quinns and Brian Brohms of the NFL world. But that couldn’t be further from the truth. Here are the numbers:

Luck: 53.4% completions, 6.7 YPA, 7 TDs, 7 INTs, 13 sacks, 2 lost fumbles

Weeden: 55.8% completions, 6.6 YPA, 7 TDs, 10 INTs, 11 sacks, 0 lost fumbles 

Both have two clunker games with QB ratings below 55, though Weeden’s worst was dramatically more awful. Both have one game with a QB rating over 105, with Weeden’s 114.9 one of the 10 best by any QB this season. Take away Weeden’s dreadful opener and he would rank 11th in QB rating and 9th in YPA, where Luck ranks next to last among regular QBs.

The point is that because everyone was so ready for Luck to be awesome and Weeden to stink, even though they’ve been statistically quite comparable the general perception is that Luck is having a great rookie campaign while Weeden is hopeless. That’s simply a load of horse manure on both accounts and I hope the ESPNs and NFL Networks of the world stop shoveling it at you. I doubt they will, especially after the Colts win here because the Browns pass rush is spotty and Luck has Reggie Wayne while Weeden has Josh Gordon. Colts 24, Browns 20.

Arizona Cardinals (15) at Minnesota Vikings (10): Two of the surprise success stories of the early season face off in a desperate attempt to cling to that early good fortune. Arizona has achieved four wins almost exclusively on the back of its defense, and just when Kevin Kolb finally started to look somewhat competent at quarterback he has several ribs separated from his sternum. He will be out awhile with that injury that sure sounds a lot more serious than is being reported. John Skelton takes over, and if last week’s performance is any indication the Cardinals anemic offense should consider it fortunate if they score more than once. Skelton went 2-for-10 with an interception, which is not much better than his brother Steve, a practice squad tight end, might have done. I expect the Cardinals defense to make things rough for Christian Ponder, but unless he totally wets the bed he should be good enough to win this duel of second year QBs. Having Percy Harvin helps. Vikings 19, Cardinals 13.

Tennessee Titans (28) at Buffalo Bills (25): Both these teams come off somewhat surprising wins over defensive-oriented teams last week. Buffalo’s win at Arizona was one of the strangest games in recent memory, with a host of gaffes and truly bizarre situations that the Bills ultimately won by luck and stinking less. Tennessee beat Pittsburgh thanks to strong special teams and a gutty performance by Matt Hasselbeck, coming from behind to nip the Steelers with their best defensive performance of the year. I’ll take the team that won with more legitimate strength than the one which needed a clueless backup QB being terrible and a missed gimmie FG to win. This one could be the highest scoring game of the year, except neither offense is consistent enough to fully exploit the middling defenses on the other team. Titans 33, Bills 28. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (13) at Cincinnati Bengals (19): Pittsburgh has owned the Bengals lately, even in the friendly confines of the Paul Brown Jungle. The Steelers have won seven of their last eight rips down the Ohio River, as Ben Roethlisberger has consistently struck paydirt with long throws outside the pocket and the defense forces an average of over three turnovers per contest. So it will be real interesting to see if the trip to Cincy cures the Pittsburgh road woes this season, as the Steelers have lost every trip outside Heinz Field.

Two weeks ago, I would have strongly favored the Bengals against this banged up Steelers unit, which will be without Troy Polamalu, Marcus Gilbert, and perhaps LaMarr Woodley, Lawrence Timmons, and Maurkice Pouncey, none of whom practiced on Wednesday. Many of the reserves are no better than questionable for this game as well. But Cincinnati has dropped two in a row in decidedly uninspiring fashion to the then-1 win Dolphins and winless Browns. Andy Dalton has turned the ball over six times in those two losses, while the running game has sputtered to a near halt. The entire offense seems to be Dalton eluding a rusher, throwing the ball somewhere near A.J. Green and hoping for the best. It’s a testament to Green that this seems to work more often than it should. 

I see this as a death gasp game for the fading Steelers, one last chance to show they can still be considered a viable contender. They know they have no chance at catching Baltimore if they can’t win in their home away from home in Ohio. Even though they are decimated, aging, and just not that talented anymore, I still believe in their heart. But this is the last week they get that benefit if they don’t play markedly better football. If they don’t do that here, Geno Atkins and the Bengals could make this one ugly. Steelers 20, Bengals 17.

New Orleans Saints (22) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (24): One of the strangest things I’ve read this year is the factoid in some newspaper that if the Saints win this game, they will be in second place in the NFC South with a 2-4 record. What the hell happened to this division!? For a few years now I’ve been beating the drum that the NFC South is the strongest division in football top to bottom. This year the bottom has fallen out.

I’d like to give the Bucs some credit for a nice win last week, but Brady Quinn is about as far away on the QB spectrum as you can get from Drew Brees. Quinn is to Brees what tube steak is to filet mignon. Tampa chokes on the meaty New Orleans attack, though the Saints own defense is porous enough to keep this one close. Saints 36, Buccaneers 31.

Jacksonville Jaguars (32) at Oakland Raiders (29): This one is for draftniks only, and the way the two QBs here perform is not without significance. Both Blaine Gabbert and Carson Palmer need to show fresh ownership and new coaches that there is a compelling reason to stick with them as starting quarterbacks. A strong performance in a convincing victory would help, and with both these teams being eminently beatable, this is a golden opportunity for one of them to shine. I’m more inclined to believe that the veteran Palmer will deliver at home, evne though Gabbert comes off a bye and should benefit from more Cecil Shorts. Oakland 20, Jacksonville 16.

Monday Night

Detroit Lions (18) at Chicago Bears (4): At some point, the Lions are going to bring their “A” game before they are behind by 10 or more in the fourth quarter. The universal laws of inevitability and balance dictate that at some point Matt Stafford is going to start a game the way he finished against Philadelphia, looking like a cross between Troy Aikman and Tom Brady, and not his typical 4-for-13 with an ugly INT. Sadly, I don’t think a trip to Chicago is going to be the spark that ignites that fire. 

As good as Jeff Backus has been at left tackle--he ranks in the top-8 in pass blocking acumen--he will need help with Julius Peppers. And when the Lions have shifted things to give Backus help recently, two things happen: First, the help isn’t adequate and Peppers (or Jared Allen or DeMarcus Ware) knocks the stuffing out of Stafford anyways. Second, the run blocking, already a weakness, goes completely into the crapper. Mikel Leshoure has been quietly effective in two of his three games, and the Lions would love for him to get more than the 15 carries and 70 yards he got last week. But that takes a commitment to running and not worrying about the pass rush, something that is a foreign concept to Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan.

Chicago has run commitment issues of its own, and their pass protection is vastly inferior to Detroit’s. Right tackle Gabe Carimi is the ultimate one-dimensional threat; according to the good folks at Pro Football Focus, Carimi ranks 54th out of 57 in pass blocking for all tackles, but only two other right tackles are better in the run blocking department. Chicago as a whole has highly publicized pass protection issues, and the Lions showed last week they are getting back to being consistent sack threats. Nick Fairley provided a nice infusion of energy up the gut, while Cliff Avril looked spryer off the edge than he had earlier in the season. 

So the battle becomes Jay Cutler vs. Jay Cutler. Will the Bears sourpuss QB stand tall and deliver strikes under duress, or will he break down into a sniveling turnover machine? If he chooses the former, the Lions stand little chance of keeping up with Brandon Marshall down the field. He didn’t have anything close to Marshall in the Monday night matchup with Detroit last year, a Lions 24-13 victory at Ford Field where Cutler was sacked three times but hit 17 others. I think Marshall’s presence makes a huge difference here, as does the fact Chicago is coming off a bye at home. If this turns into a shootout I favor the Lions, and that could very well happen. But the safer bet is to take the Bears in a mid-range scoring game with a lot of punts punctuated by several big plays. Chicago 28, Detroit 25. 

Bye: Atlanta (1), Denver (8), Kansas City (31), Philadelphia (21), Miami (14), San Diego (16)

Drinking at the Frat House Games

I’ll be in College Station observing the Texas A&M/LSU game. As was the case last week in Baton Rouge, future NFL defensive talent abounds, but the Aggies have a pair of likely 1st round tackles that could make things interesting for Mingo, Montgomery et al. I like Kevin Sumlin’s offensive flair, but the Aggies are a year away from winning big SEC games like this one. 

LSU 20, Texas A&M 18

Florida 25, South Carolina 24

Kansas State 46, West Virginia 38

Michigan 28, Michigan State 24

Oregon 52, Arizona State 27