By Jeff Risdon

The storm clouds rained down on the NFL in Week 3, with the most controversial ending to a game since the officials handed Super Bowl XL to Pittsburgh at the expense of common sense, visual evidence, and the Seattle Seahawks. There were extra timeouts, egregiously enforced phantom penalties, and balls spotted on the wrong side of the field. Here’s hoping the real refs are demonstrably better despite having zero prep time and no practice! 

Last week: 9-7, pushing the season tally to 30-18. It was another week where I was just as good vs. the spread, getting nine wins and a push. 

Thursday Night

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: Last week, I waxed on and on about how the Giants couldn’t possibly muster the strength, energy, and intensity to go on the road to Carolina to play on Thursday night after such an emotionally draining Sunday night game. They proceeded to annihilate the Panthers with a completely dominant all-around team effort. 

This week I wax off. Under normal circumstances the Ravens win this game by two touchdowns; the talent and coaching discrepancy is that great. The winless Browns have never beaten Joe Flacco’s Ravens, and with a 13.5 point spread the odds are significantly against them doing it this time. I fear the great gambling D, the double digit division dog, but these Browns are just not ready for primetime. My Cleveland brethren can hope that Trent Richardson has a strong national coming out party and the Joe Haden-less defense somehow corrals Flacco and Friend to cover the ginormous spread. It’s that bad in Cleveland, that covering a two touchdown spread would be considered a strong performance. Ravens 24, Browns 13.

Sunday Games

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets: I’m very interested to see how the 49ers fare after a lackluster defensive effort that saddled them with their first loss last week. They chose to spend the week in Youngstown, Ohio instead of returning to San Francisco before travelling cross country. Either they are trying to shock the complacency out of the team or they are hoping to recapture some of the DeBartolo magic. You cannot get much further away culturally from San Francisco than Youngstown, the depressed hometown of former Niners owner Eddie DeBartolo and his nephew, current owner Jed York. Because of those roots there is a surprising contingent of Niners fans sandwiched halfway between Pittsburgh and Cleveland in a city with all the socioeconomic maladies of both but lacking the charm of either. 

I’m also curious how the Jets' defense will handle the loss of Darrelle Revis, allegedly the greatest Jet ever. Rex Ryan’s defense depends so heavily on the corner being able to handle their business without help, and now they have to do that without the best all-around corner in the game. Aside from missing him in coverage, Revis is also the best tackler on the team. I expect this game to be a defensive struggle, and without Revis Island the Niners are more likely to make a few plays to produce points than the host Jets. Take the under and the Niners to win 20-10.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: This NFC East tilt will suck up an inordinate amount of media attention. Then again, these teams have played some of the most intriguing games of the past few years and there are tasty story lines galore. 

One of those story lines is Eagles coach Andy Reid intimating that Mike Vick could be on a short leash. Vick has been even more of a turnover machine than normal this year, and Reid is clearly tired of his chosen franchise QB throwing and fumbling away so many opportunities. But that’s what you get with Vick, who plays at his best when he plays on the edge. It’s a strange mix, because the Eagles have so many good weapons that can make plays on their own. But when Vick is on top of his game, he’s the best playmaker on the team and makes them that much better. I understand Reid’s frustration, but if he’s just realizing this issue now he probably needs the comeuppance. If he’s trying to motivate Vick and remind him to play within his system, well, good luck with that, coach… 

The Giants are coming off a win in the mini-bye week after playing on the previous Thursday. I have a very strong feeling teams in that situation are going to fare very well this season. But the Eagles should get Jeremy Maclin back, and his addition will stretch a thin Giants secondary beyond the breaking point. The Eagles tend to play better when under pressure and under the spotlight. I believe Andy Reid will remember that LeSean McCoy is a pretty darn effective running back and give him the ball more than 12 times. Eli Manning is due for an off night, and I think Trent Cole & Friends help augment that bad night. Eagles 28, Giants 25.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: Frequent readers know I am prone to overthinking, paralysis by analysis. I initially had a couple of paragraphs here about the Bills awakening defensive front could really be a problem for the Patriots, but that muddied up a basic truth that is way too big to ignore here: The New England Patriots are not going to be 1-3 and the Buffalo Bills are not going to be 3-1. It really is that simple. Patriots 26, Bills 20. 

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: The Titans come off one of the most unlikely wins in NFL history, somehow winning a game where they gave up two touchdowns in the final 18 seconds. Every one of their touchdowns came on big plays that were just as much (if not more) the product of Detroit mistakes than anything well done by the Titans themselves. That sounds more condescending than it should, but it’s the truth. The Texans don’t make those kinds of mistakes, and the Titans are not good enough to beat the Texans without a lot more of the help they got last week. JJ Watt will chalk up another two sacks and a pass deflection or two, and the Texans cruise at home. Houston 27, Tennessee 13.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: As I’m starting this particular preview I’m watching NFLPA head DeMaurice Smith make the rounds on the talk show circuit. Not the sports talk show circuit, but rather the news circuit. I’ve seen Smith on CNN, ABC, NBC, and now MSNBC, and with each subsequent appearance smith gets more emboldened in his chest thumping. It seems to me that for as much as Smith is offering opinions on the referee fiasco and beating the drum for making the NFL a safe workplace for his constituents, there is a whole lot of Smith proudly proclaiming to his union underlings “See how hard it is to get a deal done with these owners. I did it and we didn’t miss a game.” His haughty smugness is a message to the players that he is something special and worth retaining, as there have been whispers of some players wanting a change at the top. Maybe I’m reading too much personal bias into it, but that’s the way I see it. 

Back to regularly scheduled programming. I like how the Chiefs fought back at New Orleans to notch the stunning come from behind victory. They finally played a half of football like I knew they could when I picked KC to win the AFC West. I think they do it again at home against a Chargers team that was exposed on a number of levels by the high-flying Falcons. Chiefs 30, Chargers 20.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Upset alert! Upset alert! It pains me to say this, but all those preconceived expectations about how good the Lions might be and how bad the Vikings might be need to be buried. Minnesota has been the better team, with more reliable QB play, better defensive communication and discipline, and better coaching. The only caveat I have is that if Shaun Hill starts for Detroit instead of Matt Stafford, I actually like the Lions. His more cautious, patient approach would serve the Lions well against the Vikings defense than Stafford’s gunslinging but error-plagued style. That doesn’t mean I think Shaun Hill is a better quarterback than Matt Stafford, but I think Stafford needs to see a different way to run the offense. Resting his sore butt is not a bad idea either, with the bye coming next week for Detroit. Vikings 29, Lions 27. 

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: No team is playing better than Atlanta right now. I love how they quickly seized control last week at San Diego and never took their foot off the windpipe. This team has a killer instinct that has been lacking before, willing to smother the opponent and keep at it for 60 full minutes. Cam Newton presents a unique challenge, but Newton’s decision making has not progressed in his second season. Sean Weatherspoon has the athleticism to keep Cam contained when plays get extended, and the Falcons safeties are playing well too. 

But the biggest reason why I like the Falcons big here is the way their offense matches against the Panthers defense. Carolina doesn’t get good pressure from their front, and their secondary struggles when asked to stick in coverage longer than the first read progression. Matt Ryan is playing legitimately great football this year, and the cadre of weapons he has around him affords him the chance to have a rare off day and still produce enough points to win. Against this porous Carolina D, in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome, I don’t think Ryan has an off day. Good week to use Atlanta in survivor fantasy games. Falcons win big, 38-20.

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams: The big question here is if the Seahawks will have a hangover effect from the Monday night miracle. It’s not like their sputtering offense has much of a margin for error, and you can bet Golden Tate will not be able to so much as breathe on a DB without getting flagged for offensive pass interference. The Rams have enough defensive talent to hang tight, and it’s not like Russell Wilson is setting the night on fire for Seattle.

The problem for the home team is offensive production. Other than ripping apart a bad Washington defense, Sam Bradford has been mediocre at best. One touchdown, two interceptions, and very little success beyond five yards is the norm of the St. Louis offense. The protection is substandard, a real issue against a Seattle D that notched eight sacks in a half without blitzing once. There’s your key matchup in a nutshell. Rams fans should consider themselves lucky if Bradford escapes this game with his wonky shoulder intact. Seattle avoids the hangover and wins 20-13.

Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are flying high at 3-0, unquestionably the most pleasant storyline for what has been a pretty depressing overall season for the NFL so far. And the three wins smack of quality opponents: Seattle, New England, and most recently Philadelphia. I’ve gushed about their defense, and rediscovering Larry Fitzgerald can only help their inconsistent offense.

So why do I get the feeling Miami is primed for the upset here? The Dolphins have a rookie QB throwing to wideouts that don’t scare anyone, and Reggie Bush is iffy with a gimpy knee. The -6 for Arizona scares me, but I just cannot see the Cardinals defense being beaten by Ryan Tannehill after what they’ve done to Tom Brady and Mike Vick. Low confidence pick. Arizona 20, Miami 16.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: A pair of 1-2 AFC West rivals square off in a game that I think is probably a lot more variable than most. The Raiders absolutely have a chance to win at Denver. Darren McFadden finally found his stride last week, and the Denver run defense loses Joe Mays, their best interior tackler, to suspension for taking a chunk out of Matt Schaub’s ear last week. The Denver pass protection is weak up the middle, where the always dangerous Tommy Kelly can change a game quickly. Oakland can get after the passer, albeit inconsistently, and Peyton Manning is getting hit a lot more than we’re used to seeing. The Broncos have an alarming tendency to start games slowly, and the Raiders are a team that plays with great confidence when they get a lead. Oakland still has the bet special teams in the league now that they’ve remedied the long snapper situation, with both Lechler and Janikowski salivating at the concept of kicking in the thin Denver air. 

But Denver can bring the pass rush heat themselves, and I think the Raiders will miss Darrius Heyward-Bey’s ability to credibly stretch the field. Oakland’s offense is too hit-and-miss for comfort, and the undisciplined Kelly is just as apt to ruin the game for his team as he is to do anything positive. Look for Denver to not fall so far behind, and this time the late-awakening Manning offense comes through with a late scoring drive to notch the win. Denver 27, Oakland 24. 

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars: Catfight! This game doesn’t offer a lot of sexiness, so to jazz things up here are my top-3 fantasy catfights I would pay to see:

1 . Salma Hayek vs. Sofia Vergara. Muy, muy delicioso!

2. Emma Stone vs. Lindsay Lohan. I’m a sucker for natural redheads with strong acting talent. You can leave off the last half of that sentence too, or interject Julianne Moore as celebrity referee and put this one up at the top.

3. Erin Andrews vs. Pam Oliver. The two most attractive football broadcasters. We could sit around afterwards talking about football while I help tend to their wounds, perhaps enjoying some Chianti and cheesecake.

Bengals 17, Jaguars 16 

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers: The Saints are 0-3, which is surprising enough. But here’s something that makes it even worse: the three victors--Washington, Carolina, and Kansas City--have combined for exactly three wins. All three wins are against these Saints, who are struggling with a soft, thin defensive front and an offense that has fallen off rather dramatically. Now they have to travel to the western shores of Lake Michigan, where the winds can be tricky this time of year. That won’t help Drew Brees and his surprising accuracy issues (54%, down from 71%).

It also won’t help that the Packers are frothing mad and looking to take out some anger after what happened to them Monday. I worry about teams being overly emotional and getting too worked up about injustices, but this Packers team has great leadership and a poised coaching staff that will understand how to positively use that negative energy. The Saints are sure to be desperate, but with no real coaching presence and Brees struggling behind an inferior line and lacking precision with his shuffled receiving corps, their desperation turns to more disappointment. This is my survivor fantasy pick this week. Packers 37, Saints 28. 

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: This game features one of those “something’s gotta give” matchups, albeit with a more negative slant than normally applies. Josh Freeman has been terrible at throwing the ball down the field; he had just one completion that went more than four yards down the field before the two minute warning of last week’s punchless loss to Dallas. His yards per attempt of 6.1 ranks 27th of the 32 starters, with only rookies and Blaine Gabbert below him, and his 51% completion rate is above only Gabbert.

Then there is the Redskins woeful pass defense. They have given up 10 touchdown passes, worst in the league. Only three teams have allowed more first down conversions via the pass, and only two have allowed more third down conversions thru the air. Coverage gaffes are the norm, as their safety play can best be described as “inadequate”. With just six sacks in three games, the Skins aren’t exactly helping the secondary with a strong rush. If ever Freeman is going to break out of his two-season-long funk, this is the week. 

Even if he does, the Bucs are still going to struggle to win this one. Their own pass defense is even worse than Washington’s, ranking dead last in yards per game and 29th in yards per attempt. To replace injured end Adrian Clayborn, the Bucs will start Daniel Teo’Nesheim, an undersized rusher that couldn’t even make the Eagles practice squad. Between the issues up front and the increasingly embarrassing play of Aqib Talib, it’s a good week to have RG3 in salary cap fantasy games. I’m not discounting a death-gasp strong game by the Bucs, but their win over the Panthers is tempered by the fact the Panthers have been awful too. The Redskins aren’t great but they’re clearly the better team here, even on the road. Washington 30, Tampa Bay 24.

Monday Night

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys: Both these teams rebounded nicely from disastrous outings to notch very impressive performances against lesser opponents. Now we’re back to normal with Dallas and Chicago, two mid-level NFC teams that figure to be in the tight playoff mix. Both teams have serious offensive line issues that hamstring what is otherwise a solid offense. Both teams have the ability to bring the heat on the opposing passer. Both teams have solid linebacker play that can produce turnovers and play all over the field. 

The difference here is with the secondaries. While Dallas has improved, Chicago’s has impressed me more. Tim Jennings has been fantastic at corner, and Chris Conte is playing better at safety. With Jason Witten being more of a detriment than a threat at this point, I like that Urlacher will be able to drop deeper and help on the longer interior routes, undercutting the comeback option that Romo likes to use when under pressure. As long as Cutler survives the Demarcus Ware onslaught, and I think ware gets 2.5 sacks on J’Marcus Webb, the Bears should prevail. Should. Bears 24, Cowboys 21.

Drinking in the Dorm Room Games

Michigan State 22, Ohio State 20. Sorry Dad!

West Virginia 51, Baylor 40

Texas 28, Oklahoma State 25

Virginia Tech 33, Cincinnati 28

Georgia 27, Tennessee 24