In years past I have tried a little too hard to get very single player/slot pick right. I consciously backed off that a little here, but probably not as much as I should. I’m not someone who takes the accuracy of my final mock all that seriously, and that’s a good thing because this is the most unpredictable year I can recall since 2006.
As always, this mock represents what I think might happen with the given pick. It does not represent what I personally would do in the same situation. And beyond the first 40 picks, pay far more attention to the player and slot than the player and team.
1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford. No suspense here, nor should there be.
2. Washington Redskins (from STL): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor. New face of the franchise is a no-brainer move.
3. Minnesota Vikings: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU. I had this mocked over a month ago and everyone thought I was crazy. Now the sheeple are flocking to this idea. I still think it could be Kalil, but I’ll stick to Claiborne because Leslie Frazier is not a man with deceptive motives.
4. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama. When the Browns have been competitive the last decade, it’s been with a strong, pounding runner like Jamal Lewis or Peyton Hillis. The Dawg Pound gets a bone with Richardson. Or someone (Jets?) trades up here to get him.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Matt Kalil, T, USC. Kalil will fall no further than #5, even if it’s not the Bucs that pick him. I do not buy the Luke Kuechly talk even though I do greatly respect some of the sources from where that is emanating.
6. St. Louis Rams (from WAS): Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State. Jeff Fisher knows he needs a commanding presence inside to take pressure off Chris Long. Cox will be free to attack at all with a stud like Laurinaitis behind him. Blackmon makes sense as well but I think they go defense.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State. Blaine Gabbert fully endorses this pick, as Blackmon is great at turning short routes into long gains. There is talk of Melvin Ingram or even Chandler Jones, but if this plays out I can’t see them passing on Blackmon. Now if they trade…
8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M. A specific message here to the draftnik community on Twitter--Don’t overthink this, people…season ticket sales are down 35% in three years, and the owner wants a marquee QB come hell or high water to convince recalcitrant fans he is serious about building a winner. It might not make sense to you, but it makes sense to Stephen Ross and he’s the guy making this pick.
9. Carolina Panthers: Quentin Coples, DE, North Carolina. This could be low for Coples as he is certainly in play for both JAX and MIA above here, but his versatility up front makes him ideal for Ron Rivera’s defense. I could see Melvin Ingram or Kuechly here too.
10. Buffalo Bills: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame. It’s not their biggest need, but Floyd is the kind of receiver that can dictate coverage and open up the offense to Chan Gailey’s creativity. I’ve got an inkling they like the offensive tackle prospects available later on just as much as what they could get here.
11. Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College. One of the guys that Kuechly most reminds me of is D’Qwell Jackson, a guy that Romeo Crennel loved in his Cleveland tenure. I think this is as low as Kuechly falls, right or wrong.
12. Seattle Seahawks: Mark Barron, S, Alabama. Not necessarily a team/player pick here, though they could use a healthy Barron in their secondary. This is more of a trade projection pick. Could be Kuechly or Coples here too
13. Arizona Cardinals: Melvin Ingram, DE/LB, South Carolina. I have a hard time seeing Ingram fall even this far. His athleticism and speed are exactly what Ray Horton’s defense needs on the edge. I know they really like Michael Floyd, but he’s gone in this mock.
14. Dallas Cowboys: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama. I’m going back a few months here to when a trusted Cowboys insider told me the team was very high on Kirkpatrick. I do think their interest in trading up for Mark Barron is very strong.
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU. I like how they addressed linebacker, and now is the time to get a widebody inside that can cover for the wide nine pass rush. Brockers is not a pass rusher, but he’s a ready and willing run stuffer with a good head on his shoulders. He’s a safer pick than Dontari Poe, who is certainly in play here, as is trading up for Barron.
16. New York Jets: Courtney Upshaw, DE, Alabama. Upshaw is the epitome of a Rex Ryan football player, an aggressive, tough, intimidating attacker that doesn’t fit for everyone. Not sure I buy trading up for Richardson, but I know seeds have been planted for a move up for
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from OAK): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina. Teams that watched his entire career have to have concerns about his inconsistency, and that lets him fall to the Bengals. They will not hesitate to pick him here if he’s still on the board.
18. San Diego Chargers: David Decastro, G, Stanford. Tough call because they are a prime candidate to trade up, and also because in this mock a lot of the offensive linemen fell. Decastro is the safest and also the most pressing need, hence the pick.
19. Chicago Bears: Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State. This is my monkey wrench pick. It is nothing more than a hunch. It could just as easily be Chandler Jones or Shea McClellin or Donta Hightower. Wild card I heard late Wed.: Bruce Irvin. Don’t shoot the messenger.
20. Tennessee Titans: Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse. I don’t understand it, I don’t like it and I sure as hell don’t endorse it, but Chandler Jones is a top 20 pick. This being #20, there you go…
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Cordy Glenn, T, Georgia. The Bengals have had quite a bit of upheaval along the front line, and Glenn’s versatility makes him all the more attractive in that situation. Kendall Wright would be a nice fit too.
22. Cleveland Browns (from ATL): Riley Reiff, T, Iowa. Often overlooked in their dearth of offensive talent is that the Browns had a horrible RT situation a year ago. Reiff can help with that from Day One, and this is more of a priority than a QB to compete with Colt McCoy. Seriously.
23. Detroit Lions: Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois. First choice is Dre Kirkpatrick but he’s long gone. I’ve heard Mercilus, I’ve head Nick Perry, I’ve heard Upshaw. Mercilus showed a real knack for forcing turnovers, a major point of attraction for Jim Schwartz.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Amini Silatolu, G, Midwestern State. I waffled back and forth between Silatolu, Kevin Zeitler, and Donta Hightower--all very real possibilities--but finally settled on Silatolu. He has the highest ceiling and plays with the Steelers mentality already. Depth at LB lets them wait a round or two there.
25. Denver Broncos: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis. The momentum has cooled but there is simply too much potential for Poe to fall out of the first round. He could very well be gone in the 8-12 range. Denver seizes upon that value.
26. Houston Texans: Shea McClellin, LB, Boise State. I live in Houston. I know a handful of Texans and several people close to the team. So you would think I would have a better grasp on what the Texans are going to do here. The plain truth is I believe it’s pretty open, but it will be either a pass rusher or an offensive lineman. McClellin fits nicely with the “star-less” Wade Philips defense.
27. New England Patriots (from NO): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor. Tom Brady was at his best with a legit field stretcher. Wright lacks Randy Moss’ size, but he might be just as good at catching the quick toss and breaking it open. That’s a staple of the Patriots offense and Wright makes it that much better.
28. Green Bay Packers: Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC. Perry could go as high as Chicago but here he falls to the Packers. Green Bay has to improve the defensive front seven with a desperate need for an end and a pass rushing OLB opposite Clay Matthews. Perry might not do a lot right away but I will not deny his potential.
29. Baltimore Ravens: Donta Hightower, LB, Alabama. Lower than I like to put him but somebody falls every year and I’m zeroing in on Hightower as that guy here. I love this pick if it happens, and so does Ray Lewis.
30. San Francisco 49ers: Rueben Randle, WR, LSU. They have to get better receivers, period. Randle is not as sexy a name as Stephen Hill but he’s more ready to help right away and offers quite a bit in his own right. I’m reliably told this is the floor for Silatolu, and he and Iupati together would be devastating.
31. New England Patriots: Bruce Irvin, LB/DE, West Virginia. He’s a better story than football player at this point, but Irvin has two things that cannot be coached: freakish speed around the edge and a burning desire to make it. I’m buying into the 1st round talk, albeit tepidly.
32. New York Giants: Kevin Zeitler, G/C, Wisconsin. This pick could very well be Colby Fleener but I went with rising star Zeitler. He built upon a very good Senior Bowl week by acing interviews, and he can play either guard spot or center.
Round 2
33. St Louis Rams: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
34. Indianapolis Colts: Colby Fleener, TE, Stanford
35. Minnesota Vikings: Mike Adams, T, Ohio State
36. Tampa Bay Bucs: Doug Martin, RB, Boise State
37. Cleveland Browns: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
38. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trumaine Johnson, CB, Montana
39. St. Louis Rams (from WAS): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
40. Carolina Panthers: Brandon Boykin, CB, Georgia
41. Buffalo Bills: Brock Osweiler, QB, Arizona State
42. Miami Dolphins: Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall
43. Seattle Seahawks: Devon Still, DT, Penn State
44. Kansas City Chiefs: David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech
45. Dallas Cowboys: Andre Branch, DE/OLB, Clemson
46. Philadelphia Eagles: Kirk Cousins, QB, Michigan State
47. New York Jets: Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame
48. New England Patriots (from OAK): Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
49. San Diego Chargers: Bobby Wagner, LB, Utah State
50. Chicago Bears: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
51. Philadelphia Eagles (from ARI): Chris Givens, WR, Wake Forest
52. Tennessee Titans: Bobby Massie, T, Ole Miss
53. Cincinnati Bengals: Rishard Matthews, WR, Nevada
54. Detroit Lions: Lavonte David, LB, Nebraska
55. Atlanta Falcons: Mitchell Schwartz, T, California
56. Pittsburgh Steelers: Mychael Kendricks, LB, California
57. Denver Broncos: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami FL
58. Houston Texans: A.J. Jenkins, WR, Illinois
59. New Orleans Saints: forfeited
60. Green Bay Packers: Kendall Reyes, DE, UConn
61. Baltimore Ravens: Jamell Fleming, CB, Oklahoma
62. San Francisco 49ers: Jonathan Martin, T, Stanford
63. New England Patriots: Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson
64. New York Giants: Orson Charles, TE, Georgia
Round 3
65. Indianapolis Colts: Derek Wolfe, DE, Cincinnati
66. St. Louis Rams: Josh Robinson, CB, UCF
67. Minnesota Vikings: Juron Criner, WR, Arizona
68. Cleveland Browns: Marvin Jones, WR, California
69. Tampa Bay Bucs: Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson
70. Washington Redskins: Mike Martin, DT, Michigan
71. Jacksonville Jaguars: Kelechi Osemele, T, Iowa State
72. Buffalo Bills: Omar Bolden, CB, Arizona State
73. Miami Dolphins: Jeff Allen, OL, Illinois
74. Miami Dolphins (from CHI via CAR): Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina
75. Kansas City Chiefs: Alameda Ta’Amu, NT, Washington
76. Seattle Seahawks: Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State
77. Houston Texans (from PHI): Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma
78. New York Jets: Isaiah Pead, RB, Cincinnati
79. Oakland Raiders: used on Terrelle Pryor
80. San Diego Chargers: Ladarius Green, TE, LA-Lafayette
81. Chicago Bears: Casey Hayward, CB, Vanderbilt
82. Arizona Cardinals: Brandon Brooks, G, Miami OH
83. Dallas Cowboys: Taylor Thompson, TE, SMU
84. Tennessee Titans: Olivier Vernon, DE/OLB, Miami FL
85. Cincinnati Bengals: Brandon Hardin, S, Oregon State
86. Atlanta Falcons: Ben Jones, G/C, Georgia
87. Detroit Lions: Jeremy Lane, CB, Northwestern State
88. Pittsburgh Steelers: Chris Polk, RB, Washington
89. Denver Broncos: Tyrone Crawford, DE, Boise State
90. Philadelphia Eagles (from HOU): George Iloka, S, Boise State
91. New Orleans Saints: Zebrie Sanders, T, Florida State
92. Green Bay Packers: Robert Turbin, RB, Utah State
93. Baltimore Ravens: TY Hilton, WR, Florida International
94. San Francisco 49ers: Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
95. New England Patriots: Dwight Bill Bentley, CB, LA-Lafayette
96. New York Giants: Ronnie Hillman, RB, San Diego State
97. Oakland Raiders (comp pick): Ronnell Lewis, DE/OLB, Oklahoma
RealGM's Final 2012 NFL Mock Draft