Last Week: 3-1, but the one game I missed (SF/NO) appears to be the only one the emailers care about. C’est la vie! Baltimore at New England: If the two squads that took the field last weekend show up in Foxboro, this one is amazingly easy to forecast. The Patriots' defense looked dominant, while Tom Brady and his receivers were in beautiful harmony in their devastation of Denver. Meanwhile, the Ravens had almost no offense after the first quarter and needed some awful rookie throws by a 3rd string rookie QB, not to mention the worst punt return decision in playoff history by Jacoby Jones, to escape against the Texans. If these two teams play the way they did last week, the Patriots win here by at least three touchdowns. But this is a whole different ball of wax. I expect the Ravens to approach this game differently, trying to get more pressure on Brady and forcing the Pats to run the ball. Baltimore did a great job last week of shutting down the Texans tight ends despite getting almost no pressure on TJ Yates, which prepares them somewhat for what the Patriots like to do offensively. Ed Reed has the range and veteran savvy to make plays against Gronkowski, and the Ravens have linebackers that can run in coverage. Baltimore is well-equipped to handle the basic tenets of the New England passing attack. Throw in the matchup of Haloti Ngata vs. the revolving door of centers in New England, and I like Baltimore to take away the bread and butter. Of course Tom Brady is very good at taking crumbs and cobbling together some healthy and productive drives. As good as the Ravens defense is, and as well as they match up, I do expect New England to score on at least four or five drives. So the question becomes, can Baltimore put up enough points to outscore New England? That depends on Joe Flacco, and depending on Flacco to outscore Brady is unquestionably a dicey proposition. I think Ed Reed was absolutely correct in saying that Flacco was rattled last week. Of his 14 completions (on 27 attempts), exactly three were throws that could accurately be described as accurate. The Texans sacked him five times and took him off his desired throwing spot several others, and it clearly bothered Flacco. But the Patriots don’t typically get the kind of pressure from their front that Houston does, and New England lacks a Pro Bowl corner in Jonathan Joseph who can largely eliminate his man from the passing game. Flacco did a good job in locating the correct option (i.e. whoever Kareem Jackson was covering) and they didn’t really utilize Ray Rice as a receiver much. Rice is very dangerous to how New England likes to defend because he can come out of the backfield and get good depth on his routes quickly. The New England safeties are almost useless in coverage, particularly when they have to pay some mind to a legit deep threat. Torrey Smith hasn’t done much lately, but he has the speed to stretch the field and keep the safeties honest. Dinking and dunking works, and if Flacco has time and confidence in himself, he does that pretty well. It’s imperative the Ravens get Flacco going early. If he comes out and misses three of his first four attempts, maybe with a sack or big hit mixed in, the proverbial curtain will drop. But if they can get him comfortable and make a quick strike, Baltimore can absolutely win this game. Let’s see how Flacco handles the pressure put on him by Ed Reed, who spoke not just for all the critics but the entire Ravens team when he was hard on his quarterback. I think the Ravens D will do their part against Brady & Co., which entails keeping the score in the 20s. But I’m not ready to believe that Joe Flacco can hold up his end of the bargain, even with Ray Rice likely having a huge day. New England 27, Baltimore 20. New York Giants at San Francisco: Last week, I underestimated the San Francisco offense. I never thought Alex Smith could lead the team to not just one, but two 4th quarter touchdown drives with all the chips in the pot. The sprint QB sweep for the first touchdown was brilliant play calling mixed with exceptional execution by the blockers up front and Smith himself. The Vernon Davis Experience on the latter drive showed Jim Harbaugh understands how to attack a defense at its most vulnerable, albeit a defense too cute for its own good. Now I’m torn. At the beginning of the playoffs I predicted the Giants and Patriots in the Super Bowl. I still believe in the Giants, and I’m thisclose to spelling Elite with Eli Manning. I actually prefer Eli to Drew Brees against this Niners defense. No I didn’t forget my meds, hear me out… San Francisco likes to aggressively attack the football. Brees likes to aggressively attack the defense. When those two aggressions collide, bad things happen to one side or the other. But Eli Manning is more patient and careful. He won’t try to hit the deep seam route unless he knows the safety is cleared, whereas Brees just trusts his arm and his receivers to make the play regardless. The Dashon Goldson INT of last week isn’t likely to be there this week because Manning is smart enough not to throw that kind of pass anymore. It helps that he has a barrage of receivers that manipulate the defense and reliably get open against all sorts of coverage. Improved discretion is what has Eli on the doorstep of his second Super Bowl. His teammates clearly trust him more as well, which leads to a unified front that seemed impossible in the Jeremy Shockey/Plaxico Burress era. The offensive line is not what it used to be, but they were functional against the Packers. Clay Matthews, one of the top pass rushers in the game, spent most of last Sunday either on his butt or hopelessly blocked out of the picture. The Giants have the ability to do that to Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Aldon Smith as well, though Smith has the ability to bull rush that is noticeably absent from Matthews’ repertoire. Matthews also didn’t have Justin Smith, a legit Defensive MVP candidate, helping clear his path either. Or Ahmad Brooks going full bore on the other side. Or Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman eliminating the area between the hashmarks out to 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. All those San Francisco defenders give them a real shot to win. I don’t see Ahmad Bradshaw or Brandon Jacobs able to gash them for five yards per pop, and the Niners secondary is one of the best at fundamentally tackling the ball. If they can force turnovers the way they did last week, it will be the Niners in the Super Bowl. Honestly, I see this as the kind of matchup where if they played 100 times, each team would win 50. I expect it to be close, hard-hitting, and punctuated by big plays in the passing game. And that leads me to favor the Giants with Eli Manning throwing to Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, Victor Cruz, and the criminally underappreciated Jake Ballard over Alex Smith throwing to Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, and a bunch of random guys that wouldn’t be on the Giants active roster. New York 29, San Francisco 27. I will be live from Mobile AL and the Senior Bowl all next week. Follow my briefings on Twitter @JeffRisdon and look for twice-daily practice summaries here on RealGM.