Last Week: 7-6, but with an asterisk as I went 8-4-1 against the spread. Season forecast is 58-34, pleasantly warm during the day but getting chillier at night, just like the autumn weather here in Houston. Sunday Best San Diego (5) at New York Jets (17): San Diego is the forgotten AFC power, but ignore them at your peril. They are 4-1 coming off their bye, the first time they haven’t been 2-3 after five games in five years. Given how strong this team has closed seasons in the past, if this team can recapture any of that prior mojo the rest of the AFC had better look out. I get the sense from the Chargers that they are looking to make a big splash in this one, using the prominent stage to demonstrate that they are a force to be reckoned with. I love Norv Turner’s snide retort to Rex Ryan’s typical loudmouth braggadocio. When Ryan espouses that he would have at least two rings with all of San Diego’s loaded talent--a direct shot at Turner’s oft-questioned coaching acumen--Turner flipped that bird right back at Ryan, wondering where those two rings he guaranteed Jets fans were. When milquetoast Norv Turner is that fired up, you know the Chargers are out for blood. It is never easy to go from the West Coast to the East Coast and win, but the way The Sanchize has been struggling makes it easier. I am stunned by his lack of progress and apparent regression. Sanchez is missing open targets and just appears very uncomfortable in his own shoes between the lines. Getting him some better run support would help, but the Jets rank 31st in yards per carry and show no signs of impending improvement. Their pathetic offensive display against a walking-dead Miami team was disturbing. The Chargers rank 3rd in opposing 1st downs per game, 2nd in passing yards, but just as importantly 3rd in penalty yard differential. San Diego can stop the Jets and won’t give up the cheap freebies. Pair that with the hungriness the Chargers are showing and I really like the road team. Chargers 24, Jets 10. Sunny Games Atlanta (14) at Detroit (8): This is a test for the Lions to see how legit they are. After last week’s loss to San Francisco, the vulnerabilities of Detroit have been exposed. If they want to be thought of as a legit contender, they absolutely must win this game. Atlanta is wobbly but still dangerous, with Michael Turner a real matchup problem for the run defense challenged Lions. Detroit has really struggled with runners that go north/south hard, and that is Turner. Atlanta likes to run a trap play where Turner follows the guard pulling into the A-gap, and that plays has killed the Lions all year. It also sets up play action for Matt Ryan, who has done a better job lately of getting the ball out of his hands quicker and making stronger throws. That makes it incumbent upon Matt Stafford to go out and win this one. At times this season Stafford has looked fantastic, but for the majority he has looked inexperienced and wild. Stafford has missed far too many open throws for my liking, and he needs better awareness of what is going on around him. With all the running back injury issues, expect the Lions to throw the ball at least 35 times. Stafford needs to complete at least 23 of those, the more to Calvin Johnson the better. He does have fantastic weapons led by Johnson, but Nate Burleson and Titus Young have shown flashes and Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler are solid tight threats. So long as Stafford stays sharp and in rhythm, I think the Lions can outscore the Falcons pretty handily. Atlanta ranks dead last in 3rd down defense, which means Stafford and friends could string together some nice drives and get more opportunities to strike. But I don’t yet trust Stafford to play a complete game, and I worry about relying on yet another late-game comeback. But I also don’t trust the Falcons, who have alternated wins and losses all year. Ryan has been inconsistent and reluctant to take shots down the field, and with Julio Jones out and Roddy White hobbled a bit I don’t see the Falcons making big plays in the passing game. If they can’t do that, the Lions can bear down on Turner and get Ryan into must-throw situations. I will take the Detroit D-line against the Atlanta O-line in that situation 10 times out of 10, especially at raucous Ford Field. It’s a tentative pick, but I like the Lions at home. Detroit 31, Atlanta 28. Chicago (19) at Tampa Bay (15) in London: At some point there will be a NFL team based in London, perhaps as soon as 2015. I for one cannot wait for this development to happen. I hope the ownership comes up with a fantastic new moniker. Let’s say the team moving to London is the Vikings. They certainly cannot keep that, as the actual Vikings once pillaged the British Isles to a bloody pulp some 1,000 years ago. My top three name suggestions: 1. The London Fog. I’m a sucker for weather-related things, I like team names that aren’t plural, and grey is an underused color. 2. British Bulldogs. Easy to make the logo, superimposing UGA onto a Union Jack. It already has positive name recognition amongst wrestling fans, and it encompasses all of England, Scotland and Wales, and not just London. 3. London Torries. Natural rivalry with the New England Patriots, plus they could get exclusive rights to every NFL player named Tory, of which there are currently five. I don’t have the foggiest idea which team is going to win this game. Both are wildly inconsistent and unpredictable in performance. I give the slight edge to the Bears because the Bucs are lousy at rushing the passer, and Legarrette Blount is still out for Tampa. Chicago 24-21. Houston (20) at Tennessee (18): The winner of this game will seize the AFC South lead and control their own destiny the rest of the way. Houston has never been good with those type of stakes on the line, and they will still be without Andre Johnson. The Texans have not adequately figured out how to compensate for his loss, and their red zone offense is even less focused without Johnson. Every point is going to count in this one, and I will take Tennessee converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns over Houston having Neil Rackers kick four field goals on their six possessions that get into Tennessee territory. Matt Hasselbeck got his monthly clunker out of the way already, and coming off the bye I suspect the Titans will add some wrinkles that can exploit the improved-but-predictable Texans defense. Don’t forget the Titans are playing with emotion for recently deceased former OC Mike Heimerdinger, with whom many of the players were close and would love to honor. A quick note on Chris Johnson, who has been the bane of many a fantasy owner this season. I don’t think he is going to snap out of it, not completely. His running style has changed, and it will take a conscious effort from Johnson to get back to attacking the hole and not trying to bounce every play for a big one. In the past Johnson was exceptional at putting his foot in the ground and cutting straight north/south after trolling for the hole. This year he isn’t getting that strong plant for his cut, and he isn’t exploding straight through the hole but rather looking for where he can cut again. It’s not unthinkable that he still peels off some 125 yard games and some highlight reel gainers, but don’t expect them every week. He now looks like Darren McFadden as a rookie, who figured it out and is now the fantasy producer and elite running back everyone thought Johnson would be. Titans 29, Texans 23. Fair Skies Pittsburgh (9) at Arizona (29): I love statistical anomalies, and this game features one that blew my mind. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense of Troy Polamalu and LaMarr Woodley and Dick Lebeau have forced just two turnovers in six games. I know James Harrison has been out half the year, but that is just ridiculous. They put way too much pressure on opposing offenses for that paltry figure to persist. Arizona gives the ball up a little over twice per game on average. Look for that number to tick upward; I think the Steelers take the ball away at least three times. Having said that, this is not the mighty Steelers team of recent vintages. They struggled against Jacksonville last week and are really inferior along the offensive line. They turn the ball over entirely too much (only Philly has more) and their running game ebbs and flows inconsistently. The Cardinals have been playing some lousy football lately, but they had their bye week to regroup. I like the Steelers as the much better team, but Arizona has a strange propensity for pulling off the unexpected strong game and they are not devoid of talent. Steelers 30-20, but be careful with overconfidence. Kansas City (24) at Oakland (11): The Carson Palmer era begins for the Raiders, and I think he will handle this first assignment on such short preparation just fine. Why? Three reasons: 1. The Raiders offensive line is better than you think. Jared Veldheer has stepped up as a very quality young left tackle, and rookie Stefen Wisniewski has been fantastic at run blocking. They will give Palmer time, and they will continue to give Darren McFadden and Michael Bush a lot of running room. 2. Raiders coach Hue Jackson knows what Palmer can, and cannot, do. He will tailor the game plan specifically to the former and try to avoid the latter. 3. They’re playing Kansas City, in Oakland. KC ranks 31st in pressuring the QB, dead last in red zone defense, and rate in the bottom 7 in most offensive stat metrics. Oh yeah, they’ve lost five of seven to the Raiders, including both last year when the Chiefs were much better and the Raiders not this good. I don’t trust the recent surge of Matt Cassel. Palmer gives the team an adrenaline boost the way many big-time acquisitions provide teams in other sports. It’s the next couple of games where that buzz wears off that should worry Raider Nation. Raiders 27, Chiefs 17. Washington (13) at Carolina (23): The John Beck era has begun in Washington after Bad Rex reared his ugly head in last week’s ugly loss to Philadelphia. Beck wasn’t much better in relief, and I would strongly encourage Mike Shanahan to look back at Rex Grossman’s history. When Sexy Rexy has gone from Jessica to Marge Simpson in the past, he has a pretty solid track record of bouncing back with a more attractive effort. In fact, look at the two worst games of his career. First was a 6-for-19, 34 yard, 3 INT debacle in Week 12 of 2006 against the Vikings. The next week he came out strong, threw for 200 yards and two touchdowns in a convincing win against the Rams that notched the 2nd highest QB rating of his career. Second was a quick one, a 2-for-12, 22 yard, 3 INT laugher in that season’s finale against the Packers. All Rex did after that was win two playoff games and ride a strong defense to a Super Bowl appearance. When his coaches showed faith in his ability to come back, Rex has rewarded it. This Washington defense is good enough to win games for Rex the way those Bears teams did. Now the Ethnic Slurs have essentially buried Grossman for the unproven Beck, who has failed to hold onto even backup jobs in Miami and Baltimore in the past two years. Beck really struggled against the Philly pass rush, and the Panthers do have a solid pair of rushers in Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy. The Carolina D has been tighter at home as well. And then there is the Cam Newton factor. He is hitting the proverbial rookie wall a bit, but I like that the team is trying to help him out by running Stewart and Williams more and shortening Newton’s reads. Newton still has the ability to make a special play or two that alters the course of the game. Washington struggled in containing Michael Vick on the run and lost run gap integrity when focusing on Vick. I think that persists here. I would have picked Washington with Grossman, but Carolina wins 27-20. A Cool Breeze Blowing Seattle (22) at Cleveland (28): I was very impressed with Seattle’s last game, their shocking win in New York over the Giants that ended many a survivor fantasy football season. The move to an up-tempo, no-huddle offense worked brilliantly. It really showed with the offensive line, which has struggled when given too much time to sit and think about what they have to do. Just do it, baby! Smart strategy, as it built confidence and kept the Giants strong defensive line off balance. The question is whether they can sustain that momentum after a bye, and now lacking the element of surprise. Cleveland’s defense has played pretty well, led by September AFC Defensive Player of the Month D’Qwell Jackson. The Browns do a great job getting to the quarterback, and Joe Haden is approaching elite corner status. Even though undrafted rookie Doug Baldwin has been a pleasant revelation, I still find the Seahawks as devoid of offensive weaponry as any team this side of the Rams. Cleveland special teams play better at home and can give them the kind of spark they need to overcome their own struggling offense. Colt McCoy threw 45 times once again last week, but the team managed just 203 yards passing. To give you an idea of just how extremely out of whack the Cleveland offense is right now, McCoy had more yards rushing than Peyton Hillis last week. The Browns must score early and not fall more than one score behind, because rookie coach Pat Shurmur clearly goes into panic mode when that happens. Either that, or his game plan is to have weak-armed Colt McCoy scramble around and throw 45 times to an underwhelming group of receivers despite having two very good running backs. I think Josh Cribbs and the special teams give the Browns enough field position to cash in more even if McCoy throws yet another ridiculous amount of passes. Cleveland 24, Seattle 20. Denver (30) at Miami (32): Matt Moore vs. Tim Tebow. I’ll take Tebow, backed by a defensive front that features excellent rookie Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. They will get to Moore, and as the Monday night debacle against the Jets proved, if you get to Moore he will be awful. Miami should get to Tebow as well, but he has shown some ability to create and inspire. As an added bonus for Denver, the Dolphins chose this game to honor Tebow’s Florida team in a vain attempt to sell tickets in the worst pro sports market in the nation. Can you say “backfire”…Denver 20, Miami 13. Green Bay (1) at Minnesota (26): Christian Ponder gets to make his first NFL start against the reigning champs, a defense adept at forcing turnovers and making life generally miserable for any quarterback. That got me to thinking about how rookie QBs fare against defending champions, and the results surprised me a bit. Last year both Colt McCoy and Max Hall, neither of whom are as good as Ponder, authored victories against the defending champion Saints. Joe Flacco lost to the Giants his rookie season in Baltimore, and Vince Young split with the defending champ Colts back in his rookie year in Tennessee. So it’s not out of the question that Ponder can have some success; after all, fellow rookie Cam Newton had a very strong game against Green Bay earlier this season. But having success is one thing, winning the game is quite another. Green Bay is gunning for a perfect season and their own QB, Aaron Rodgers, is playing at a level of sustained greatness that is almost unprecedented. In his last 16 games (including the playoffs last year) Rodgers has a QB rating of 119.7. Peyton Manning topped that total in his 2004 season, but consider that Rodgers went 4-0 in the playoffs while Manning went 1-1 after that season, plus Rodgers left the Detroit loss last year early. Go back one more game and the total rises to 124.8, which tops Manning’s record number. Rodgers is at 122.4 for this season, which tops Manning’s mark. The way that Rodgers seems in complete command no matter what the defense throws at him is just awesome, using that word literally. Young Ponder could stand to watch and learn from the master. I do think the Minnesota defensive front will challenge Rodgers a bit, and the Vikings will come out flailing hard to knock down their bitter rivals. But they just don’t have the offensive line or defensive backfield to pull it off. Packers 30, Vikings 16. St. Louis (31) at Dallas (16): I was impressed with the way the Rams played the final three quarters against the Packers a week ago. It would have been very easy for them to just roll over and play dead after falling behind so quickly, but they kept battling. That should provide a little hope against a Dallas team that is pretty good at blowing leads. But with Sam Bradford still in a walking boot on Thursday and given the pathetic state of the Rams O-line, I really don’t see how Bradford can possibly mount a comeback against Demarcus Ware & Co. I really like Cowboys ILB Sean Lee in coverage right smack in the middle of where Bradford likes to throw the ball, shorter passes right along the hashmarks. This is a great week to use Tony Romo in salary cap fantasy football games. He will throw for at least 330 yards and 3 TDs in a 33-13 Dallas win. Indianapolis (27) at New Orleans (4): Just what the winless Colts need, a roadie against an angry Saints team still smarting from an uncharacteristic bad day from Drew Brees and a nasty injury to coach Sean Payton. Brees will bounce back in a big way, and expect huge things from Jimmy Graham, who is quickly becoming the biggest receiving threat at tight end in the league. New Orleans is so good at home, and the Colts just got lit up by rookie Andy Dalton. The Indy secondary is in for a real long day. Payton’s status (the New Orleans coach, not the Indianapolis QB) means it could be closer than expected, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Hint hint, wink wink. New Orleans 39, Indianapolis 17. Monday Night Baltimore (3) at Jacksonville (25): Here is a golden opportunity for the Ravens to show they are an elite team. The Jaguars are terribly inept at throwing the ball and their special teams are among the worst in the NFL. The one thing Jacksonville does well--running the ball--plays directly into the hands of the Baltimore defense, which ranks 3rd in yards per attempt and leads the league in tackles for loss. Even though the Jaguars defense has improved quite a bit, they still are not going to hold back Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin et al from scoring enough to win this one. Can we get a flex game please?! Ravens cruise 26-10. Byes: New York Giants (7), Buffalo (12), Cincinnati (10), New England (2), Philadelphia (21), San Francisco (6) Drinking in the Dorm Room Games: Last week: 5-0. Crack an Iron City and enjoy! Stanford 32, Washington 27 Notre Dame 24, USC 23 Wisconsin 30, Michigan State 24 Clemson 33, North Carolina 20 Hillsdale 27, Wayne State 24. Giving some love to the GLIAC, the SEC of D-II. Jeff.Risdon@realgm.com