Last Week: 8-8 Before we get to the games, I will take time to answer a little reader email. From time to time I write something that stirs some pots, and this week had a couple of wooden spoon topics. In this week’s $.10, I commented that Packers GM Ted Thompson is fantastic at finding later-round and undrafted talent, but his first round picks have not met that high bar. This brought a perturbed reaction from several Packer Backers, most of which were along the lines of “So Aaron Rodgers, BJ Raji, and Clay Matthews all suck?!” No, that is not the point I was hoping to convey. My intention was to highlight how great Thompson is at finding talent later in drafts, and that some of his first round picks have not met expectations. I will use AJ Hawk as an example. Hawk is a solid starter that appears to have finally settled into his role. But he was the #5 overall pick in the draft. Chad Greenway was taken 12 picks later and has been just as good, if not better. Haloti Ngata, the best defensive lineman in the game today, was taken #12, while impact rusher Tamba Hali was also on the board. Part of evaluating a draft is the “what could have been” factor. Last year, he took Bryan Bulaga in the first round. Bulaga is an adequate right tackle, but Rodger Saffold is a better player and plays a more valuable position at left tackle. He went 10 picks later. This year his first rounder was Derek Sherrod, who was not even good enough to be the #3 tackle or guard in their opener, which doesn’t exactly bode well for his future. He drafted Justin Harrell even though many teams had red flags on him for injury and commitment issues. Most teams would happily take Thompson and his first rounds, but the point I was trying to make is that where he makes his money is with the later picks. I also mistakenly believed he was responsible for bust Ahmad Carroll, but that predated Thompson by a year. The other hot topic on the email front was my assertion that Colts Coach Jim Caldwell could/should be on shaky ground. A lot of Colts fans told me I am crazy and clueless. I probably am a little crazy but there are real legs to the potential for Caldwell to worry about the temperature of his rump. I did get a couple of people that agreed with me, including old friend Matt from Louisville who chastised me with “what took you so long to figure out Caldwell is a terrible coach? We Colts fans have known this almost since the day he got hired!” The bottom line as I see it: Caldwell needs to win at least six games even sans Manning to get the chance to coach the Colts beyond 2011…and getting more than three wins with this group will be a challenge. Even though it is pretty early in the season, it is apparently never too early to introduce the power rankings. Mine are in parenthesis following each team. Chicago (11) at New Orleans (4): The cloudy availability of Brian Urlacher, who lost his mother on Wednesday, puts a cloud on the forecast for this game. Urlacher was fantastic in the opener, as was the rest of the Bears defense. I wonder how they will play without him, or how both they and Urlacher respond if he does play. This is a great opportunity for the Bears to show compassion and respect for their longtime leader, but they will have to be at their very best to contain the Saints. New Orleans has so many weapons for Drew Brees, and they have a keen understanding that it is their task to outscore the opponent. Some teams bank on their defense to come up with a stop here and there, but the Saints appear to realize their own defense cannot do that reliably and keep the throttle wide open. That makes them very difficult to stop, because they are so aggressive and fearless. Chicago likes to open things up in their own right, but their inferior offensive line stymies them at times. I think the defense that can get a turnover or two will prevail here, and the Saints are overdue in that regard after failing to record one in the opener. Home cooking tends to bring out the best in their defensive playmakers like Malcolm Jenkins and Sedrick Ellis. The Bears will be game, but New Orleans has too much talent to go 0-2. Saints 30, Bears 27. Kansas City at Detroit (10): The Chiefs were lifeless and punchless against Buffalo last week, and now they have to head to Detroit to play the confident Lions. Matt Cassel attempted--not completed but merely attempted--just 6 passes that went more than 10 yards down the field even though the Bills only recorded QB pressures on 5 of his 38 dropbacks (he was sacked twice). Considering the best way to attack the Lions defense is to stretch the field and work on their sometimes suspect secondary, that plan of attack stands zero chance of success. Now also consider Lions Defensive Coordinator Gunther Cunningham and his payback factor against his former team, which complained he tampered with some players and cost the Lions some draft picks. Special teams gives the Chiefs a chance, but losing superb safety Eric Berry is a huge blow in trying to defend Nate Burleson and Brandon Pettigrew. The Lions also have this guy named Calvin Johnson. You might have heard of him, he’s pretty good…Lions 34, Chiefs 16. Jacksonville (19) at NY Jets (8): The Jets took advantage of great hustle and mistakes from the enemy to win their opener over Dallas, which was the better team for most of the game. It is hard for me to balance that; do I credit the Jets for making the most of their chance and winning a game they deserved to lose, or do I downgrade them for not playing real well? I lean towards the former, and the Jaguars as this week’s opponent help tilt me in that direction. Jacksonville is built to pound the rock and features a very limited-scope passing attack. Mike Thomas caught 8 passes, and three other players combined for just 9 receptions in their opener against the defensively thin Titans. Thomas gets exiled to Revis Island this week, and nobody else in the Jags passing attack has the dynamic ability to pick up the slack. I do think MJD will have some success running right at the Jets, but that will wind up producing too many field goals and not enough touchdowns to keep up with The Sanchize & Co., which should find some openings in a suspect secondary. New York 27, Jacksonville 16. Arizona (20) at Washington (14): Lost amidst the Cam Newton hoopla was the overall offensively strong game the Cardinals hung on the Panthers. Beanie Wells ran for 90 yards at five yards per pop, while Kevin Kolb looked pretty solid in his Arizona debut. The line also played pretty well, which is probably the most pleasant development for the Phoenix faithful. Washington is a very different challenge, however. The bookend pass rushers of Brian Orakpo and rookie Ryan Kerrigan will test the tackles, and they made life miserable for Eli Manning last week. That is where Beanie Wells comes back into the equation: the Giants averaged 2.2 yards per first down carry, which set up the pass rushers as the Giants were forced to throw. The Cards must run effectively on first down or else Kolb is going to have a long afternoon. Of course the converse is true as well, and the Ethnic Slurs were pretty pathetic on first down rushes themselves last week: 15 carries for 22 yards, all by Tim Hightower. Where the Slurs thrived was giving Hightower the ball in 2nd and long against the dilapidated Giants defense. They also use their tight ends very well, something that remains a real vulnerability for Arizona. I like the way the Slurs appear to have confidence in Rex Grossman and how they want him to succeed, a backing he never really got in Chicago. As long as they give him time, he will find openings. I also like the sense of history favoring Washington, which has won the last seven meetings and even beat the Cards three years ago when Washington finished 8-8 while Arizona went to the Super Bowl. Draw it back further and the Slurs have won 14 of the last 18 in Washington, at which point the Cards called St. Louis home. That extra hour time difference is apparently a killer. Washington 26, Arizona 24. Baltimore (3) at Tennessee (29): Color me impressed by the way Baltimore dominated rival Pittsburgh in the opener. Ed Reed and Haloti Ngata appear in peak form as the best front/back impact defenders in the league. That is going to be real trouble for Tennessee, which struggled to put up points against Jacksonville. Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck gives them a fighting chance, but only if Chris Johnson escapes up from his offseason pity party and returns to form. Against Ngata, Ray Lewis et al, that is no easy task. This is the survivor fantasy game pick for this week even though I expect some letdown from the Ravens after last week. Baltimore 20, Tennessee 10. Seattle (31) at Pittsburgh (7): This game holds more intrigue that you might expect. Normally, I would anticipate the Steelers taking out their frustration from getting spanked last week by Baltimore, and the Seahawks are the sort of punching bag that lends itself to a walloping. But the Steelers have some legit issues, with Willie Colon out for the year and the defense looking old and disjointed. I want to see just how quickly these Steelers can get it together. Seattle is a great team to get healthy against, with their almost embarrassing lack of speed on offense, complemented by a young offensive line that was overmatched against San Francisco and the shotgun throwing of Tarvaris Jackson. If you play in a salary cap or weekly changes fantasy game, by all means use Pittsburgh as your defense; they are apt to pitch a shutout and perhaps score a couple times on their own. But I think Seattle has an underappreciated defense that can cause some issues for Pittsburgh and their own O-line issues. Steelers win 23-3. Green Bay (1) at Carolina (30): I have a strong feeling this is a classic case of a team that gave every ounce of will in a hard-fought game and then suffers a big letdown the next week. That statement could technically qualify for both teams, but these are two teams in drastically different states. Green Bay is the reigning Super Bowl champs coming off a high-flying win over a very good Saints team. Carolina was the worst team in the league last year and comes off a charged loss to an Arizona team that is not exactly in New Orleans class. I liked what I saw from Cam Newton in his debut, but the training wheels are really off now against the Packers. Clay Matthews and BJ Raji are poised to show Newton just how big a leap it is from Blinn Junior College to playing the Super Bowl champs in under 20 months. There is a small percentage chance for a huge surprise, but that surprise would be the Panthers covering the 10.5 point spread. Packers 37, Panthers 10. Tampa Bay (15) at Minnesota (24): One of the most troubling things I saw in Week 1 was how badly the Bucs got dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage. I was not sure about how their young defensive line would play, but I expected more out of what I thought was a decent offensive line. Detroit completely outclassed them, and while the Lions might do that to a lot of teams, the Bucs are supposed to be better than that. This is where we find out if Tampa and their 10-6 record a year ago is a complete fluke or not. They are the better team here, but they have to play like it. Minnesota still has very capable playmakers in Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson, and Donovan McNabb is not going to throw for under 40 yards this week. I want to see Tampa step up and announce that last season was no sad tease to their fans. This is their time to prove they belong in the conversation of legit contenders in the NFC. I just wish I could divine whether it will happen or not. My guess is yes, but a very tenuous guess at that. Tampa Bay 16, Minnesota 14. Cleveland (27) at Indianapolis (28): Cleveland is a 2.5 point favorite. On the road. At Indianapolis. There is just something very unholy about that, and the roman God of Football Testicles (pronounced Test-eh-cleez) will not let it stand. Even though the Colts looked outcoached, under-talented, and overwhelmed at Houston last week, they probably have enough testicular fortitude to beat the gaffe-prone Browns, whose offense scares nobody but their God-awful radio team of Jim Donovan, Doug Dieken, and Bernie Kosar. Colts 20, Browns 17. Oakland (23) at Buffalo (22): Raise your hand if you had these two teams both heading into this one undefeated. Both the Raiders and Bills won on the road against AFC West opponents. Buffalo is more of a pleasant surprise, and the way they eviscerated the hapless Chiefs should work against the Raiders as well. But Oakland can run the ball, and Darren McFadden looks to be in prime form. The days of Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the league in passer rating end here, but I like him to put up something like 252 yards, 2 TDs, and a couple of scrambles for first downs to keep drives alive. The Bills go to 2-0 with a hard-fought 23-20 win over the game Raiders, who simply do not win in the Eastern Time Zone, certainly not on a short week. Dallas (13) at San Francisco (26): Frequent readers know that one of the things I like to do is try and predict what the line for a game will be before Vegas posts it. For this game my initial gut guess at the line was Dallas by 2.5, with the thinking that the Cowboys appear about 1.5 points better than the Niners and Vegas always tacks an extra point on Dallas because they attract all sorts of amateur action. So when I saw the line was San Francisco -2.5, I was taken aback; is there something here I am not seeing? Dallas had little trouble moving the ball against a strong Jets defense but made too many mistakes to pull off the win. San Francisco showed a stiff defense but little punch of its own in pounding Seattle, helped a great deal by Ted Ginn and his awesome return ability. To put it simply, I thought Dallas looked good on the road against a strong opponent, while the Niners were tenuous home victors over what I believe is a 4-win team. That just does not add up to San Francisco being 2.5 point favorites. I like the Cowboys even without the bonus points. Dallas 30, San Francisco 22. Houston (12) at Miami (18): After crushing the punchless Colts last week, the Texans new-look defense gets a stern test with a new-look Miami offense that threw for over 400 yards a week ago. Dolphins Offensive Coordinator Rob Chudzinski has installed a vertical passing attack that suits Chad Henne very nicely. Still, I like what I saw from Houston and their new 3-4 front. Rookie end JJ Watt made a big impact in his first week, and I like the dynamic between him and Mario Williams on the outside. I also like Glover Quin moving to safety from corner; he did not look out of place or over his head in facing some pretty solid Colts receivers. I still want to see more playmaking from this defense, but that is true of Miami as well. I trust Houston’s offense more, as they have shown they can both run the ball and spread the ball around in the air. There is a palpable tension around Houston that the Texans just might break through, and this is a winnable road game. This is also precisely the kind of game that has bitten them in the butt for years now. Are they ready? I think so. Texans 31, Dolphins 27. San Diego (6) at New England (2): This has all the makings of a video game matchup, with two prolific offenses led by elite quarterbacks and the promise of boatloads of points and yardage. The bookies think so too, as the over/under is a whopping 55 points, a full 5 points higher than any other game on the slate. San Diego held Minnesota to 28 net yards passing, while New England torched Miami for 517 yards passing. Something has to give there, and I think the Chargers defense will hold Tom Brady to around 315 yards passing. On the flip side, I am not sold that New England--which gave up over 400 yards passing to embattled Chad Henne--will be able to slow down Philip Rivers & Co. So it comes down to the age-old question surrounding San Diego early in seasons--how exactly will the Chargers blow it? Will it be their still-wretched special teams, or a late fumble, or a blown coverage, or a missed field goal from their new kicker? I’m going to go out on a limb and say all of the above. Cynical? Absolutely. Come on, Norv Turner, prove me wrong. New England 33, San Diego 31. Cincinnati (25) at Denver (32): So Denver fans chant for Tim Tebow and trust him to cure all that ails them. Here is a quick review of what exactly Kyle Orton had to work with in the opener last week: -- Presumed #1 wideout Demaryius Thomas was an injured inactive -- 2010 Pro Bowl receiver Brandon Lloyd left the game early with a leg issue -- Starting RB Knowshon Moreno also left the game hurt, though he was largely terrible before getting hurt -- The starting center and left guard are both second-year players with scant experience, while rookie Orlando Franklin started at right tackle. This was while facing a pretty good Oakland front 4 and the dangerous Kamerion Wimbley, a grouping that sacked Orton 5 times and recorded pressures on 10 other dropbacks. Amidst all that chaos and fans openly jeering him, Orton threw for 302 yards and kept the team in the game almost singlehandedly. Yes, he quite literally dropped the ball at a horrible time. Yes, his INT at the end of the first half directly led to Sebastian Janikowski nailing a 63-yard field goal that ultimately provided the winning margin. But I challenge anyone who thinks Orton is the problem to soberly and honestly assess the talent, or lack thereof, around him. It gets no easier this week against Cincinnati, a team with a budding star in DE Carlos Dunlap and an underrated defense. The Bengals have some QB issues, with rookie starter Andy Dalton iffy, but backup Bruce Gradkowski is the sort of plucky gamer that can rally a team to a road win. I like the Bengals here quite a bit. Cincinnati goes to 2-0 with a 24-17 win. Philadelphia (5) at Atlanta (9): All the attention is focused on Michael Vick and his return to Atlanta. That is a great story but it overshadows what a huge game this is for the Falcons, who were embarrassed by the Bears and need to build some confidence. The momentum and spark gained by the bold move to acquire Julio Jones petered out as Matt Ryan seemed reluctant to challenge the Bears down the field, though a real shaky line forced his hand. There is a growing rumble regarding Ryan and whether he has the cojones to let it all hang out. Normally I would urge Ryan to take to the skies and try to stretch the field, but the more prudent plan of attack against Philly is the dink and dump system that Ryan loves. Philly has three great corners but major issues at linebacker, and their defensive line likes to get up the field and leave space right behind. As for the Eagles, I had them mentally penciled in for a 0-2 start. I was expecting more dissonance and trouble blending all that high-profile talent, but they bombarded the Rams and have a chance to do the same here. Vick presents a challenge because the Falcons like to use their linebackers in man coverage, which keeps them occupied and gives some running lanes. I fully expect Vick to be up to the task of handling the pressure of going back to Atlanta, where he was beloved and also vilified. The vibe I get from Philly is the team wants to do this one for Vick, and guys like Desean Jackson and a fresh Lesean McCoy give him a lot of weaponry. Instead of the Eagles falling to 0-2 as I once fashioned, now I see the Falcons starting that way. Even with Julio Jones the Falcons do not have the playmakers, nor the will to use them, to keep up with the high-flying Eagles. Philadelphia 29, Atlanta 21. St. Louis (17) at NY Giants (16): This Monday nighter lost a lot of luster with both teams falling flat in their openers, and both teams have felt the virulent force of the injury bug already. New York at least got some of their injuries out of the way before the season started, and some of the replacements (LB Greg Jones, Jake Ballard) actually played pretty well in the opening loss at Washington. The Rams lost several key players during the opener, and that list includes Sam Bradford suffering a finger injury. He will play, but I question how effective a QB with a bad index finger on his throwing hand can be. The Giants still have some playmakers on defense with Jason Pierre-Paul and Kenny Phillips. The Rams are sorting out who is going to make plays, and the inaugural home game in a new stadium for a desperate opponent is not exactly an easy place to get healthy. I like the Giants, though I would like them a lot more confidently if Hakeem Nicks were 100%. New York 17, St. Louis 14. Drinking in the Dorm Room games: Last week was an ugly 2-3. Ohio State 26, Miami 24 Oklahoma 33, Florida State 31 Michigan State 40, Notre Dame 27 Nebraska 30, Washington 24 Iowa 19, Pittsburgh 17