Football is back, baby! Because of the lockout, I was unable to finish every season preview. In light of that, here is my forecast for the season records and leaders: AFC East--New England 14-2, New York 8-8, Miami 8-8, Buffalo 3-13 AFC North--Pittsburgh 11-5, Baltimore 10-6, Cleveland 5-11, Cincinnati 5-11 AFC South--Jacksonville 9-7, Houston 9-7, Indianapolis 7-9, Tennessee 4-12 AFC West--San Diego 13-3, Kansas City 7-9, Oakland 6-10, Denver 5-11 Wild Cards: Baltimore and Houston AFC Title game: New England vs. San Diego. NFC East--New York 10-6, Philadelphia 9-7, Dallas 9-7, Washington 6-10 NFC North--Green Bay 13-3, Detroit 9-7, Minnesota 6-10, Chicago 6-10 NFC South--New Orleans 13-3, Atlanta 10-6, Tampa Bay 8-8, Carolina 5-11 NFC West--St. Louis 10-6, Arizona 9-7, San Francisco 5-11, Seattle 3-13 Wild Cards: Atlanta and Arizona NFC title game: New Orleans vs. Atlanta Offensive MVP: Philip Rivers, throwing for 4,788 yards, 36 TDs, 9 INTs, 68.6% completions Defensive MVP: James Harrison, 112 tackles, 15.5 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, 2 INTs, 3 fumble recoveries Rushing Leader: Maurice Jones Drew with 1697 yards, and MJD ties with Steven Jackson with 13 TDs Receiving Leaders: Brandon Marshall in receptions with 113, Hakeem Nicks in yards with 1433 yards, Vincent Jackson with 16 TDs Sack Master: Chris Long and Demarcus Ware tie with 16.5 Offensive Rookie: Stevan Ridley, who will lead all rookies in rushing yards with 757 and TDs with 8. Edges out Julio Jones. Defensive Rookie: Von Miller, who will lead all rookies with 11.5 sacks and 4 INTs. Edges out J.J. Watt. Coach of the Year: Sean Payton First Coach Fired: Tony Sparano Comeback Player: Donovan McNabb Most Improved Player: Sedrick Ellis Thursday Game New Orleans at Green Bay: The two most dynamic teams in the NFC meet in a fantastic season opener. I get very little sense of any Super Bowl hangover from the Packers, but they will have their hands full with a rejuvenated Saints defense. Beware thinking this game will be a shootout, even though the offenses have outstanding scoring potential; the timing will not be crisp and the pass rushes will be effective. Because the game is in Green Bay and the Packers tend to play better under the brighter spotlights, I like the home team. Packers 21, Saints 17. Sunday Best Pittsburgh at Baltimore: If the Packers-Saints game is the sexy appetizer for opening weekend, this is the hardcore football porn. I could break this down any number of ways, but Ravens-Steelers always boils down to Joe Flacco stinking up the joint. Until he consistently demonstrates otherwise, I will never trust him to win big games. This is a big game, ergo the Steelers win 20-10. Perfect Storm Lock of the Week Carolina at Arizona: Cam Newton gets the start in his first career NFL game. Number one overall picks have not exactly fared well in these types of situations, including Matt Stafford (16-of-37 with 3 INTs in a 45-27 loss) and Sam Bradford (32-of-55 with 3 INTs in a 17-13 loss) the past two seasons. Newton is not even close to as NFL-ready as either of those two were, and he gets to face the blitz-happy Cardinals defense, albeit one that is missing one starting corner (Greg Toler, out for the season) and will start a first-round pick of their own in Patrick Peterson. Arizona is in much better shape with Kevin Kolb, and Carolina starts a rookie defensive tackle tandem to boot. The rest of the Panthers defense is probably better than you think it is, but it will be hard to overcome Newton’s inexperience and inevitable three or four turnovers. I like the Cardinals to score at least once on defense in a 30-13 rout. Sunny Games Philadelphia at St. Louis: A lot of people think this will be the coming out party for Philadelphia and their Dream Team, but I think this game will perfectly highlight why that dream will not be so pleasant. Sam Bradford and his merry band of short-range receivers are perfectly designed to exploit the vulnerabilities of the Philly defense. Steven Jackson will help too, but the breakout player I really like in this game is Rams rookie TE Lance Kendricks. Michael Vick will pull some rabbits out of some hats, but the Rams are poised to use this prominent stage to announce their presence with authority. Rams 27, Eagles 24. Detroit at Tampa Bay: Last year, a Detroit win knocked the Bucs out of the playoffs, so this is a revenge game. That game particularly stung because the Bucs had the game won, but points were taken off the board thanks to a ridiculous offensive pass interference call against Kellen Winslow. I say that as a Lions fan, no less. Both these teams figure to be fighting for one of the wild card spots, so a win here is a great springboard to accomplishing what has been a very elusive dream for these two franchises lately. I like the subplot of the Class of 2009 quarterbacks, Josh Freeman vs. Matt Stafford, and how both teams want to prove their guy is the better one. I also like the idea of the Bucs young defensive line trying to prove they belong in the conversation with the Lions awesome defensive front. It is this matchup that will decide the game--which team can better disrupt the opposing offense with their defensive front. Tis better to get that Bucs group early, when they have yet to play together much or develop chemistry and rhythm. I don’t think the teams will combine for 120 yards rushing, and a shootout favors the team with the better pass rush and better linebacking corps. Believe it or not, both those arrows point to the Lions. Detroit sneaks away with a 32-30 road win. NY Giants at Washington: I always like divisional matchups to kick off the season, and this is one of the better rivalries in the game. This contest takes on special meaning, as it takes place on 9/11 and involves the two cities that suffered the most on that fateful day. All the defensive injuries really make me question how much the Giants can accomplish. Six projected starters will not play in this one, including losing middle linebacker Jonathan Goff just this week in practice. That will breed some chaos, and I think the ground-oriented Ethnic Slur attack will really wear down on the taxed depth. I do think the Giants have enough firepower to overcome it, just not on the road against a pretty solid defense. Washington wins 24-20. Atlanta at Chicago: Atlanta is a very bad matchup for the Bears. The Falcons have a legit No. 1 receiver and a studhorse running back, but also feature a solid offensive line and an unflappable quarterback. The Bears thrive on opposing offenses getting impatient and making mistakes, but Matt Ryan & Co. are accustomed to long drives that use a host of weapons. I really like Atlanta’s fleet linebackers to control the middle of the field and forcing Jay Cutler into some errors. Julio Jones just needs to make sure he holds the ball all the way back to the sideline when he pulls down his first touchdown catch, or else the officials could gift another opening day win to Chicago. Falcons 27, Bears 19. Fair Games Indianapolis at Houston: Peyton Manning is officially listed as doubtful for this game. Last season “doubtful” meant “not going to play” 100% of the time, and nobody here in Houston expects Manning to extend his consecutive game streak. Nobody except Texans coach Gary Kubiak, who has witnessed Manning slaughter his defensively challenged team 11 times in 12 meetings. That one win came in last season’s opener, and this year the Texans make it two Week Ones in a row. They would be my pick even if Manning were playing, as this is the weakest cast around Manning since his rookie year and this Texans team has a heretofore unseen determination and confidence. Houston 33, Indianapolis 13. New England at Miami: Reason #277 why I admire Bill Belichick--he had the guts to cut both starting safeties of a year ago and go with Josh Barrett and Patrick Chung. Barrett didn’t even play in the NFL last year, but he was the better player throughout camp than the enigmatic Brandon Meriweather. Reliable beats freelancing every time for The Hoodie, and he sent the message to stay on task or else. That kind of focus makes the Patriots great, even if they sacrifice top-end talent to do it. Patriots pick up a divisional road win, beating the Dolphins 28-17. Dallas at New York Jets: New York playing at home on the 10th anniversary of 9/11 is darn near impossible to pick against. Rex Ryan is an emotion-driven coach that will harness the sentiment and have his Jets ready to keep the home fans happy. Jets 16, Cowboys 14. Minnesota at San Diego: Okay Norv Turner, just once it would be nice if you had your stacked roster ready to play in Week One. Just once, please. I will believe it when I see it. Every year there is one real head-scratching result from Week 1, and this one fits the bill. Vikings stun the Chargers 24-23. Cloudy Games Cincinnati at Cleveland: Sometimes you can really learn a lot by studying the bookmakers. Both this game and the Baltimore-Pittsburgh game feature the same over/under at 36.5 points. The bookies set that bar so low in the other AFC North game because both defenses are vicious and talented. This game gets that artificially low figure thanks to what is perceived to be two pretty punchless, inept offenses. Or so that was my first blush… Then I watched a couple of preseason games--the third game for each team, which is really the only preseason game from which you should ever construe anything. Cleveland pounded the Eagles with all sorts of pressure schemes, and I saw a lot of cohesion and focused energy from a Browns defense that had a little more talent than I realized. The Bengals also showed a very talented defense that can bring pressure from all over and has corners that are not afraid to get after the ball. While not Pittsburgh or Baltimore, both these teams have enough on defense to win some games. I will take the under, thank you. Cleveland has three distinct advantages. Colt McCoy has experience at quarterback, and his lockout leadership cemented himself as the trusted franchise leader and icon. I really like Cleveland’s young DT tandem of Ahtyba Rubin and rookie Phil Taylor attacking the weak point of the Cincy line, the G-C-G package that will be without starter Bobby Williams. I also strongly favor the prevailing mindsets of the teams; the Browns are optimistic and enthusiastic, whereas the Bengals seem resigned to another long season after their former franchise QB retired rather than face another losing season. Browns throw the Dawg Pound a bone with a 20-13 home win. Tennessee at Jacksonville: If you are among the teeming throngs of NFL fans wondering what the hell Jack Del Rio is doing by releasing starting QB David Garrard five days before the opener, here is my stab at an explanation. The Jaguars know already that Blaine Gabbert will be starting for them before the end of the season, and that Garrard will not be on the team beyond 2011. They are confident in Luke McCown, who looked good in the preseason and knows the offense cold, that he can bridge the Jags until Gabbert is ready. McCown costs millions less than Garrard, and moving his salary off the books is not inconsequential for this small-market team looking to attract big-ticket ownership in a certain southern California city. This is actually a very promising long-term sign; it signifies Gabbert is more ready than anticipated, and that McCown has also been better than expected. But for the short term, it turns what was going to be a pretty solid divisional home victory to kick off the season into a complete unknown. I still like the Jaguars based on their running game and all the new faces in Tennessee, but this is a year where it is better to play Tennessee later, once Matt Hasselbeck gets hurt and they turn to Jake Locker. The former Seahawk gives them more than a fighting chance. Bet on this one at your own addictive risk. Tennessee on a hunch, 23-20. Oakland at Denver: Coin flipper. Denver was heads, Oakland was tails. Heads won 5-3. Denver wins 20-16. Seattle at San Francisco: The Andrew Luck watch begins in Seattle, and Luck’s former college coach Jim Harbaugh gets a win in his debut. Alex Smith is the best QB on the field, and the Niners secondary takes advantage. Seattle has the weakest skill position talent in the league, which does not help Tarvaris Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst or (insert random Pete Carroll acquisition here). San Francisco rolls 24-13. Buffalo at Kansas City: Jamaal Charles runs wild, Tamba Hali destroys the Buffalo passing game, and the Toronto watch begins in earnest in Buffalo. Chiefs 36-12. Drinking in the Dorm Room games Notre Dame 33, Michigan 20 Alabama 26, Penn State 9 Mississippi State 38, Auburn 19 Arizona State 28, Missouri 27 BYU 20, Texas 17 Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com