This edition features many changes, including the hypothetical rise of Ryan Mallett and the fall of Da’Quan Bowers. Just two rounds this time; blame it on March Madness and trying to keep my children entertained during Spring Break, which I’m quickly learning is very hard on parents. But I’ve got something in the works for the next edition that will definitely make up for it--a side-by-side mock with a NFL scout who has graciously agreed to be the Keith Olbermann to my Dan Patrick. We’re set up to do it on Wednesday; look for it late next week! Round 1 1. Carolina Panthers: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama. Even though he was terrible, I still have a hard time buying that the Panthers scrap the Jimmy Clausen experiment so quickly. This pick is based on that thought. Dareus continues to impress in workouts. 2. Denver Broncos: Robert Quinn, LB/DE, North Carolina. Quinn is quietly gaining momentum, and his skills fit nicely for a team bridging from a 3-4 to a 4-3. Ladies and gentlemen, this man (and his agent) knows how to handle ineligibility issues. 3. Buffalo Bills: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn. Buffalo could (should?) address the weak pass rush here, but this scenario favors the most dynamic player in the draft. They’ve never been afraid to take big swings in the first round 4. Cincinnati Bengals: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri. Majordomo Mike Brown wakes up and realizes that Carson Palmer is serious, and they don’t have another NFL QB on the roster. Gabbert is a great fit for Jay Gruden’s offense, where his poor completion percentage on deeper throws is mitigated by the scarcity at which those plays are called. 5. Arizona Cardinals: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M. With both premium QBs off the board, this pick is almost a no-brainer. Miller would solve a lot of issues with their up-and-down (mostly down in ’10) defense. 6. Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia. Back to the old fallback for Cleveland, and back to the top of the WR slotting for Green. I’m reading between some lines here, but the hubbub surrounding Colt McCoy’s apparently tenuous grasp on the starting QB gig stems in part from the lack of a legit weapon in the passing game. 7. San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU. File this under “Everyone else is doing it”. Every year there are always a handful of picks in every draft that correctly show up on just about every mock draft. This is the safest bet for that status in the top 10 this year…assuming Peterson remains on the board this long, which is far from given. 8. Tennessee Titans: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn. The Titans are still looking to replace the interior agitator that left town with Albert Haynesworth. Fairley is a similar, though smaller, player that relentlessly attacks gaps. Don’t forget his college positional coach is now the Titans DL coach… 9. Dallas Cowboys: Tyron Smith, T, USC. They desperately need a RT, which mitigates the fact that Smith has only played on the right side--a negative to some. Jerry Jones is frequently attracted to superb athletes of his ilk. 10. Washington Redskins: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas. Mike Shanahan has a strong track record with QBs of the iffy personality type (Jay Cutler, Jake Plummer). Mallett has the best arm in the draft, and like Plummer he is the kind of leader that teammates can learn to follow thru the proclivities. 11. Houston Texans: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson. Questions about his knee are dogging his stock, but the defensively challenged Texans will happily select a player that readily compares to Julius Peppers. A little birdie tells me they would take Julio Jones, but I can’t see them ignoring the pathetic defense here. 12. Minnesota Vikings: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois. With the only potential 1st round QBs off the board, the Vikings turn to the defensive to infuse an active young widebody into what was often a stale rotation in 2010. Liuget’s stock is soaring; don’t be surprised if he’s gone by this point. 13. Detroit Lions: Anthony Castonzo, T, Boston College. This is another “Everyone else is doing it” pick, and like the Peterson pick there is eminent validity for it. Castonzo is the pugnacious scrapper that Lions fans have long wished Jeff Backus would be, and he can fill in as an upgrade at guard until the aging Backus (coming off a very good season) hangs it up. 14. St. Louis Rams: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama. This should be considered Jones’ absolute draft floor. The Rams have to get Sam Bradford some legit targets, and Jones has the strong physique and deceptive quickness to get open on the intermediate routes that are the bread and butter of the offense. 15. Miami Dolphins: Cameron Jordan, DE, California. Jordan brings versatility and range to the table, two things the Dolphins have not had at DE in the Sparano era. I see him as a high-floor, lower-ceiling prospect than most of the DE prospects, but Miami needs a reliable doubles hitter more than a player that mixes in a couple of homers with scads of strikeouts. 16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Aldon Smith, LB/DE, Missouri. He’s very similar to Jason Pierre-Paul, last year’s 1st rounder for the Giants, in many ways--limited experience, incredible length, good burst, a willing worker. The team is expected to use more hybrid defensive looks, and an athlete like Smith can make that very effective. 17. New England Patriots (from OAK): J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin. He’s tumbled here a bit since the Combine bounce, as teams wonder why he had trouble consistently disengaging from blockers in his limited run at DE (he started college as a tight end at Central Michigan). He’s still eminently capable of developing into a top-shelf DE, and the Pats need a new Richard Seymour. 18. San Diego Chargers: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska. I know many think it’s absurd that Prince falls this far, but I strongly get the impression he’s a player that draftniks and fans like a whole lot more than NFL personnel evaluators do. Many see him as a better fit at safety, which would suit the Chargers just fine, especially if Eric Weddle departs. 19. New York Giants: Nate Solder, T, Colorado. The tallest player in the draft has a very high ceiling but pretty significant bust potential. That had not deterred GM Jerry Reese in the past, and he’s hit (Pierre-Paul, Manningham, Nicks) more than he’s missed (Barden, Phillips). 20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue. I get almost the same answer from every person I ask about Kerrigan. “I like him but I’m not sure how well he’ll adapt” is what pretty much everyone says about the try-hard backfield disruptor. Tampa needs to spend more than one pick on upgrading the pass rush. 21. Kansas City Chiefs: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa. If at first, and at second, you don’t succeed…with this pick GM Scott Pioli will have spent three of his four first round picks on the exact same position, the 5-technique DE. With Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson both misfits bordering on flopdom, Pioli hopes that the third time is a charm with the brute-strong Clayborn. 22. Indianapolis Colts: Danny Watkins, G/T, Baylor. The fireman is picture-perfect for the Colts. He’s ready to start at either RG or RT right away, he’s incredibly quick on his feet, and he’s got a personality that will mesh beautifully with Peyton Manning. 23. Philadelphia Eagles: Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida. Because Philly always addresses the lines with their first picks, and his ability to play guard or center allows them to mix and match an increasingly shaky OL. 24. New Orleans Saints: Gabe Carimi, T, Wisconsin. Most fans will scream “we must go defense” here, but one of the big differences between the high-flying 2009 and the cruising altitude 2010 was the relative decline of the right side of the OL. Carimi is tough as nails and will upgrade the run blocking. 25. Seattle Seahawks: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado. Character concerns make this a tenuous pick, but he’s got too much talent to fall very far. For my money he’s the best pre-throw cover man in this draft. Pete Carroll can appreciate that. 26. Baltimore Ravens: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State. I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating: Heyward is the perfect Ozzie Newsome kind of player. That they happen to need someone at his position makes this selection one of the most likely in this edition to actually happen. 27. Atlanta Falcons: Justin Houston, LB/DE, Georgia. Tom Dimitroff goes into the Falcons’ back yard and fetches the menacing Houston, who proved in workouts he’s much better-suited to play DE in a 4-3. A little birdie tells me they are strongly considering OL here, but they know very well that John Abraham can’t play forever. 28. New England Patriots: Brooks Reid, DE, Arizona. Reid is suddenly and almost inexplicably gaining momentum, enough that as strange as this pick looks now it might appear prescient in a month. As always, whenever you see New England as the team making the pick, assume I’m picking the player/slot and not the team/player. 29. Chicago Bears: Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor. Taylor is the proverbial bull in the china shop, and the Bears would love to add someone with that mentality inside to help the run defense. Rod Marinelli could turn Taylor into the next Albert Haynesworth--the motivated, disruptive-to-the-other-team Big Al and not the recalcitrant, team-killing Mr. Haynesworth. An offensive tackle makes sense here too. 30. New York Jets: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa. Clayborn fits well as the LDE in Rex Ryan’s version of the 3-4; he’s very strong, savvy, and can capably line up in a variety of techniques. Sleeper pick: Marvin Austin 31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Derek Sherrod, T, Mississippi State. It’s pretty amazing that the Steelers made the Super Bowl by starting Lions/Bills castoff (let that sink in) Jonathan Scott at LT. Sherrod didn’t always play to first-round status but has the athleticism and demeanor to make it pay off. A corner wouldn’t surprise me here. 32. Green Bay Packers: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple. Wilkerson often dominated in the MAC, and he’s got the attacking mentality that fits Dom Capers’ defense well. The deep clusters of second-tier wideouts and offensive tackles allow the Packers to go defense here. Round 2 33. New England Patriots (from CAR): Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama 34. Buffalo Bills: Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois 35. Cincinnati Bengals: Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh 36. Denver Broncos: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami FL 37. Cleveland Browns: Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA 38. Arizona Cardinals: Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State 39. Tennessee Titans: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame 40. Dallas Cowboys: Aaron Williams, CB/S, Texas 41. Washington Redskins: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State 42. Houston Texans: Rahim Moore, S, UCLA 43. Minnesota Vikings: Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada 44. Detroit Lions: Mason Foster, LB, Washington 45. San Francisco 49ers: Jake Locker, QB, Washington 46. Denver Broncos (from MIA): Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina 47. St. Louis Rams: Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech 48. Oakland Raiders: Ben Ijalana, G/T, Villanova 49. Jacksonville Jaguars: Davon House, CB, New Mexico State 50. San Diego Chargers: Dontay Moch, LB, Nevada 51. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bruce Carter, LB, North Carolina 52. New York Giants: Brandon Burton, CB, Utah 53. Indianapolis Colts: Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland 54. Philadelphia Eagles: Curtis Marsh, CB, Utah State 55. Kansas City Chiefs: Jabaal Sheard, OLB, Pittsburgh 56. New Orleans Saints: Drake Nevis, DT, LSU 57. Seattle Seahawks: Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois 58. Baltimore Ravens: Titus Young, WR, Boise State 59. Atlanta Falcons: Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky 60. New England Patriots: Kenrick Ellis, DT, Hampton 61. San Diego Chargers (from NYJ): Jerrell Jernigan, WR, Troy 62. Chicago Bears: Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami FL 63. Pittsburgh Steelers: Quinton Carter, S, Oklahoma 64. Green Bay Packers: Orlando Franklin, T, Miami FL