$.01-- Andrew Luck announced on Thursday that he is returning to Stanford. That means version 4.0 of my mock draft must be completely redone, but more importantly it means the Panthers are screwed. I think Carolina will turn to Da?Quan Bowers, the Clemson defensive end who bears a very strong resemblance to former Panther Julius Peppers, but they are so inept at the QB position that even having the #1 defense in the league won?t get them 6 wins. That they?re interviewing defensive-minded coaching candidates (Rob Ryan, Perry Fewell--whom I expect to get the job) likely means the offense will struggle once again in 2011 despite having a very good offensive line. And I think Luck is crazy for going back, but I?m not Andrew Luck and I wish him well. $.02-- Speaking of Stanford, Cardinal Coach Jim Harbaugh is the leading candidate for every coaching position at every level of football, even some positions that are still currently filled by others. I think that is fraught with peril. Harbaugh has never coached in the NFL and has a limited experience at the big-time college level. Four years ago he was the coach of a 1-AA team, and he gained prominence as a coach by having Andrew Luck--the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning--running the show. I?m not saying Harbaugh isn?t a good coach and won?t be a great NFL coach at some point, but the expectations that he can step right in and be a transformative force like so many people expect is a huge reach. Better, more experienced college coaches than Jim Harbaugh have flopped in the NFL (Nick Saban, Butch Davis). Be real careful with your expectations for Captain Comeback. The Games: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts: I think this game is a perfect illustration of what is wrong with the Jets, and why they can?t win. The Jets are constructed for one singular mission: to beat the New England Patriots. It?s all they talk about in the offseason, and it?s the predominant factor in choosing their roster. And I?ll give the Jets credit for probably being the AFC team most likely to beat the Patriots in a playoff game. The problem is they aren?t playing the Patriots, they?re playing the Colts. And the Indianapolis Colts are almost the anti-Patriots. They play a 4-3 zone defense with a lot of speedy undersized guys. They don?t even try to run the ball outside the tackles. Their QB isn?t afraid to take shots down the field even against good coverage, but he doesn?t particularly have a favorite target that the Jets can isolate on Revis Island (note that the Patriots fared much better against the Jets sans Moss, same thing). Indy doesn?t give up big runs, so long as Gary Brackett is healthy in the middle of the defense. The Colts cover the screens and checkdown throws better than any team this side of Chicago. It reminds me of the Cleveland Cavaliers a couple years back. After losing to the eventual champion Boston Celtics, the Cavs (at LeBron?s behest) completely retooled with the singular vision of beating the Boston Celtics of the year before. Guess what happened? They drew the Orlando Magic instead, and they had no answers. Of course then the Cavs retooled again (at LeBron?s behest) to try and beat the Magic, but drew the Celtics in the playoffs and had no answers, but I digress?. The point is, it?s dangerous to pigeon-hole your focus, and I think Rex Ryan and the Jets have done that. This is the worst possible matchup for them, aside from the reasons laid out above. The Colts led the league in red zone offense (and ranked 6th in red zone chances), while the Jets defense finished 25th. Indy has largely cleaned up the turnover problems that garnered so much attention in October and November, and the Jets ranked just 20th in points scored on drives that weren?t the result of turnovers (the Colts finished 2nd in that same stat). Indy doesn?t commit penalties (they finished tied for 3rd), while the Jets finished 24th. That kind of discipline and avoidance of beating themselves makes the Colts a nightmare for the Jets, who rely on the other team cowering in their wake and screwing up just enough to pull out victories. These Colts are getting healthier at the right time, and their resurgent running game and rush defense harken back to their Super Bowl season. Peaking at the right time is critical, and these two ships are sailing in very different seas right now. Colts 27, Jets 10. New Orleans at Seattle: The Seahawks deserve some credit for making the playoffs by winning a play-in game with a backup QB and a completely shuffled offensive line full of backups that probably wouldn?t make 25 other rosters. That worked against the uptight Rams, but the Saints are a different animal. I?ll be honest here: I really don?t see any way the Seahawks can win. New Orleans excels at precisely what Seattle struggles against, while the few things that Seattle does well, New Orleans does a good job against those. Because the game is in Seattle I give the Seahawks a chance to cover the ever-growing spread (it began at 8, and as of Thursday morning was between 10.5 and 11.5), but unless Drew Brees suddenly turns into Derek Anderson or the Saints defense gets food poisoning, this shouldn?t be much of a contest. Saints 30, Seahawks 13. Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City is the most overlooked team in these playoffs, and some of that comes from their play last week. Nobody really paid any attention to the Chiefs until they won the AFC West, and in the one game they played after that they got trounced by the Raiders. Because of that, almost no one gives the Chiefs much of a chance to beat the Ravens here. That is a huge mistake (said in my best Gob Bluth voice). Kansas City went 7-1 at home, and the game they lost was the aforementioned Raiders game, which meant nothing to them and everything to Oakland. The Chiefs have a very good secondary despite (because?) starting two rookie safeties. They ranked 11th in sack percentage (not raw number but number per pass attempt), and Tamba Hali would be an All Pro if he played in New York. Their offense has big play ability with Jamaal Charles, who can break off 40 yard runs against anyone, and Dwayne Bowe, who led the league in TD receptions with 15. Having said all that, Baltimore should win this game. I like their playoff experience, particularly on defense. Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Ed Reed all know how to crank up the intensity a notch in the postseason, and Reed is on a huge roll right now. The Chiefs could be without Pro Bowl guard Brian Waters, which means they have no answer for Haloti Ngata, a man amongst men up front. Ray Rice can make the Chiefs defense, which will over-pursue plays, pay dearly. I think Joe Flacco has made some strides at playing better in big games, notably the Atlanta and New England games. But something tells me the Chiefs are ready. People like to point out that Flacco has won three playoff games in the last two years, but the ugly truth is that he?s one of the worst QBs in playoff history. His QB rating in the playoffs is 46.5, with 1 TD in 5 games to go with 6 INTs. He has completed exactly three passes longer than 20 yards in 5 playoff games. He?s incredibly predictable on 3rd down this year, and the Chiefs have a secondary/pass rush combo that can make his life difficult. Most fans would say, ?that?s fine, they?ll pound the ball?. That is a gross misconception. The Ravens ranked 28th in yards per carry and 31st in yards per carry on 1st down (only Cincinnati was worse). If the Ravens are going to win, it will be Joe Flacco that wins the game for them. I think he can do it, but I?ll believe it when I see it and not one second beforehand. I like the Chiefs to pull the stunner, 20-17. Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles: This game features the two NFC teams that fit the proverbial ?nobody wants to play in the playoffs? billing. That?s because the Packers and Eagles are the most explosive, dynamic offenses in the NFC. Both have MVP-caliber quarterbacks, both have talented receiving corps with big play ability, and both have a lot of confidence in their ability to overcome early deficits. Michael Vick?s troubles with Minnesota?s defense, and his increased INT totals in the final four games he played, make me worry more about Philly?s offense than Green Bay?s. Vick threw five INTs in his last four games after throwing just one earlier in the season. What that tells me is that opposing defenses have made adjustments on how to play against him. Those adjustments are subtle, but they have made a difference. The Minnesota game stands out because of how easily CB Antoine Winfield was able to get to Vick on the blitz. Green Bay has Charles Woodson in that role, one of the few corners that blitzes and tackles better than Winfield. The Eagles will shift protections to help against Clay Matthews and his 13.5 sacks, much like they did to help against Jared Allen. Philly?s O-line just isn?t good enough to handle both at the same time, especially when you factor in B.J. Raji up front. The Packers have received markedly improved play from their inside LBs lately, and that?s a huge key to containing Vick. On the other side of the ball, Philly has some serious late-coming injury problems. They?ve lost three starters in the last 3 weeks: safety Nate Allen, MLB Stewart Bradley, and DE Brandon Graham. Top CB Asante Samuel is fighting a bum knee, and they already lost Ellis Hobbs in late November. Perhaps nobody has more injuries than the Packers, but they got them out of the way early and have learned to adjust to the new guys; the Eagles haven?t had that opportunity, and they?ve struggled in filling the holes. As well as Aaron Rodgers has played since returning from his second concussion, I think those struggles will continue. I love the Green Bay momentum and confidence offensively, even if I still have major questions about their offensive line. The Eagles defense has been noticeably passive lately, which gives that embattled line a bit of a break. Packers 29, Eagles 24.