Last Week: 10-6, pushing the season forecast to 101-74. Thursday Game: Houston (18) at Philadelphia (10): Here in Houston there is a growing, vast conspiracy theory that the only reason Andre Johnson avoided suspension for his fracas with Cortland Finnegan is because this game is on the NFL Network and the league needs to have the Texans at full strength to have any chance to provide a competitive game. I?m not normally a conspiracy theorist, but I do think there?s some validity here. Without Johnson the Texans have no prayer of keeping up with Vick & Co. on the scoreboard, not with their still-wretched defense. Don?t let the shutout fool you; greenhorn Titans QB Rusty Smith missed several throws that even Derek Anderson can make. When you add in Vick?s mobility and the big-play potential of DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, and even Brent Celek, it?s hard to see this Houston defense holding Philly under 400 yards or 30 points. With Andre Johnson complementing Arian Foster, the Texans stand a chance of pulling off the improbable, especially if Asante Samuel is out again. Houston has generally played better on the road this year, and both Mario Williams and Brian Cushing showed up strong last week, so it?s not a false hope emanating from Texans camp. This is where I feel compelled to provide the big warning. Too many times I?ve seen a game that everyone expects to be a real shootout turn into a low-scoring affair. The over/under on this game is 51.5, very high for an NFL game. Even though my gut reaction to the matchup was a combined score in the 70s, I wouldn?t touch the over. Call it the Theory of Swimming Against the Obvious. Eagles 27, Texans 24. Sunday?s Best: Pittsburgh (6) at Baltimore (7): The Steelers are playing short-handed, particularly along the lines. Ben Roethlisberger is walking around in a protective boot, which means that his ability to escape the pass rush will be greatly inhibited. Normally, I really like the Steelers in this matchup, but this is not the same Pittsburgh team with all the injuries. As long as Joe Flacco overcomes his chronic yips against the Steelers, Baltimore should prevail at home. Should. Pittsburgh still has a host of defensive impact players that can make big plays and turn the tide. And in what should be a low-scoring game, it might only take a big play or two to overcome the injuries. One bomb to Mike Wallace, one Polamalu INT, one Harrison or Woodley sack/fumble could very well be the difference. I happen to think they?ll get all three of those, and I?m not sure the Ravens will be able to counter that. Pittsburgh has a tendency to really impress when least expected, and I?m going to ride that here. Steelers in the mild upset, 17-15. Atlanta (3) at Tampa Bay (14): This is pretty much the last stand for the Bucs, as they desperately need to beat a reputable team at some point if they want to be taken as seriously as their record. Not only are the Bucs 0-4 against teams currently holding winning records, but they haven?t been competitive in three of them. The one competitive game came a month ago in Atlanta, a game that was decided on a late goal-line stand by the Atlanta defense. But that game also had the Bucs with a healthy Cody Grimm at safety and Davin Joseph at guard, and both are gone after injuries last week. Joseph is perhaps the best run-blocking guard in the league and he will be sorely missed, though Jeremy Zuttah at least has some experience. But the team will miss Grimm more. A rookie 7th rounder, Grimm offered overall reliability at a very sore spot after Tanard Jackson got suspended. To show how bad off the Bucs are at safety, they cut Sabby Piscitelli, the guy whom Grimm usurped on the depth chart, after Sabby once again displayed an alarming inability to comprehend basic coverage principles. Now the safeties will be practice squad refugees Larry Asante and Vince Anderson. That?s incredibly bad news against Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, et al. I know it sounds like a broken record, but I continue to stress how invaluable Atlanta?s aversion to mistakes is this season. They simply do not beat themselves with red zone turnovers or penalties or special teams breakdowns, and when they do slip up, they quickly bounce back instead of dwelling and wallowing in the error like so many teams do. That makes them very hard to beat, because they have a great deal of impact talent on both sides of the ball. Well-coached talent and execution trumps home field emotion and the upstart attitude. Atlanta 27, Tampa Bay 17. Sunday Sun: Oakland (17) at San Diego (5): By now we all know what San Diego is--they start the year slow and then morph into an elite team sometime around Halloween. They find that switch and once it?s flipped, the Chargers don?t lose the juice. By contrast, the Raiders are about as variable from week to week as a team can be. They win two games in a row by 75 points, pull out a hard-fought game against a strong division rival, and then get shellacked two weeks in a row where they might not have beaten Auburn. That sort of rudderless inconsistency makes them a nightmare to forecast. Fortunately this one is pretty easy: San Diego is going to win the game. The only variable is if the good Raiders show up and cover (currently -13.5) or if the bad Raiders of the last couple of weeks show up and lose by 40. Remember that the Chargers are angry about the first meeting, where Oakland blocked two punts in the first quarter and also ran back one of three Chargers fumbles in winning 35-27. The Chargers aren?t making those mistakes again, no chance. I think Oakland has enough heart to bring their ?A? game here, but it won?t be good enough. San Diego 33, Oakland 20. Dallas (23) at Indianapolis (13): Here is a golden opportunity for the Cowboys to wrap up the head coaching job permanently for interim Jason Garrett. The Colts are vulnerable, ravaged by injuries and inexperience all over the field. DeMarcus Ware should have no trouble getting pressure of Peyton Manning, and recent events have shown that Manning doesn?t have the same Vulcan mind meld with his receivers that we?ve come to know. They don?t really have any answer for Dez Bryant defensively. This game comes down to Jon Kitna and the Cowboys offense taking care of business. That means taking care of the ball and making prudent choices on 1st down, something they?ve done pretty well the past few weeks. If they can sustain some long drives and cash them in for touchdowns and not field goals, I think Dallas has a very good chance to pull off the upset here. Yet I?ve counted Kitna chickens before hatching before and suffered the nasty salmonella poisoning that goes along with overconfidence in the veteran. A Cowboys win would not surprise me in the least, but the Colts still get my benefit of the doubt one more week. The 5.5 points is mighty attractive, like Rachel Weisz kicking butt in the Mummy movies. Colts 27, Cowboys 24. Washington (20) at New York Giants (9): 3 reasons why I really like the Giants in this one: 1. Eli Manning may get Hakeem Nicks back. That extra weapon turns their passing game from pretty strong to explosive, and the Skins pass defense continues to underwhelm. 2. Tom Coughlin expertly managed Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Now he has two motivated, effective runners that are both fresh and eager to please. Chalk another one up to Coughlin?s underappreciated style. 3. The New York front-7 on defense against a struggling Washington O-line. They should be able to bottle up whoever might be running the ball while also getting consistent pressure on McNabb. That helps take away Anthony Armstrong and the downfield attack, and the Skins don?t do screens well. I think the Giants take advantage of the home opportunity to bury a division rival. Giants coast 27-10. Cleveland (21) at Miami (15): Chad Henne earned a lot of respect for his solid play a week ago, coming back from a benching and an injury. He can do a whole lot more for his Miami future by doing it again, but that?s a big part of why he lost the job in the first place. What really complicates this forecast is the cloudy status of Browns QB Colt McCoy. Jake Delhomme showed the strong arm and the ability to attack down the field, but he also is a turnover waiting to happen. The team clearly responds to McCoy, but it looks doubtful he plays in this one. I just don?t trust Delhomme to avoid the ghastly errors that have marked the past couple of seasons, and these Browns have a very small margin for error to win on the road. Even though Miami has struggled at home, I think they?ll somehow squeak by...but only if McCoy doesn?t play. Dolphins prevail 24-20. Chicago (8) at Detroit (28): This game was going to be a hell of a lot more interesting and competitive before the news that Lions QB Shaun Hill is on the shelf with a broken finger. That means Drew Stanton, backed up by Zac Robinson. Here?s how desperate the Lions are at QB: they brought in JT O?Sullivan for a look. I would make the argument he?d be the best option here, and I don?t think he?s a viable #3 on most teams. All the talk about the Lions getting jobbed in Week One on the Calvin Johnson non-catch goes out the window, because without Hill or Matt Stafford at the controls the Lions offense goes from pretty good to pretty bad in an instant. Great week to use the Bears defense in salary cap fantasy games. Bears 27, Lions 10. Jacksonville (16) at Tennessee (22): I hate waffling on picks, but this one is pretty simple: if Kerry Collins plays more than 75% of the snaps at QB for the Titans, they win 24-20. If it?s the Rusty Smith Experiment 2.0, Jacksonville is the pick, 20-10. Collins practiced on a very limited basis Wednesday and reportedly had trouble walking to his car afterwards, so I would be very cautious putting any faith in him playing. San Francisco (26) at Green Bay (11): Congrats to Packers CB Tramon Williams for his recent contract extension, reportedly a hair over $33M for four years. I love it when a player gambles on himself and hits the jackpot thanks to strong play like Williams has done here. He begrudgingly took the restricted free agent tender this offseason when his hopes for a long-term deal were dashed. Instead of pouting, Williams has come out strong and has arguably outplayed reigning Defensive Player of the Year Charles Woodson. That?s how it?s supposed to work, ladies and gentlemen, and I applaud the Packers for showing Williams the money even in the face of a potential lengthy lockout. It?s a sign of a class organization that understands how to build a team. I really don?t think this game will be much of a contest. San Francisco still has very viable playoff life after thumping the Cardinals Monday night, but it was the Cardinals and it was Monday night. That means a short work week after a game where they weren?t pushed at all by a lifeless team with terrible QB play and apathetic defense. Green Bay is at home, furiously chasing the Bears and circling the wagons after a tough loss. It?s a bad week for any team to face the Packers, let alone a Niners team that just lost their best offensive player, Frank Gore, to a broken hip a couple weeks after losing their second-best offensive player, Joe Staley. Green Bay 24, San Francisco 12. Sunday Bloody Sunday: Carolina (32) at Seattle (25): I started writing this column in the throes of insomnia, which led me to explore my 3 AM movie options. I stumbled upon Showgirls and decided to give it a try. For those of us men of a certain age, this just might have been the most anticipated movie ever. Elizabeth Berkeley, better known as ?Jessie? from Saved by the Bell, playing a stripper and promising bountiful nudity?!? I remember lining up outside the Athena in Athens, OH with some of my frat brothers to get tickets the second they went on sale. We camped out on the sidewalk, sneaking beers and re-enacting our favorite SBTB scenes in eager anticipation of seeing ?Jessie? naked. I remember the collective first opinion we shared--the movie wasn?t very good, but all the copious and gratuitous nudity of a child star made up for it. It didn?t get any better after the second viewing, but having a lead character basically topless for 80% made it watchable. Alas, age and perspective are not kind to Showgirls. This is probably the worst movie I?ve ever seen. The laughable script, the wooden acting, the pointless subplots...it?s just freaking horrible. No amount of joy gleaned from seeing Ms. Berkeley nude could ever make up for this atrocity against filmmaking, and I say that as someone who religiously watched SBTB and fantasized about a Jessie/Kelly sandwich for hours upon end. This game is the Showgirls of the NFL calendar, minus the nubile nudity. Seattle wins 20-13. New Orleans (4) at Cincinnati (31): This is the mismatch of the week, a surging playoff contender that desperately needs to keep winning against a woebegone team that has mailed it in on a lame-duck (by choice) coach with a subpar quarterback and no pass rush. The epic nature of the mismatch gives me pause, because it seems every week the most obvious blowout winds up being stunning upset. Not this time, not even in the cold. Saints cruise 34-17. Buffalo (27) at Minnesota (24): Of all the encouraging developments gleaned from Minnesota in Leslie Frazier?s coaching debut, the one that really stood out was the improved play of the interior lines on both sides of the ball. The Williams Wall had its best outing of the season, particularly Kevin Williams. The Bills have no shot at slowing him down if he brings that sort of effort and awareness this week. Buffalo also features the worst run defense in the league, and the newfound vigor of the Vikings OL poses a serious problem. Even if Adrian Peterson is slowed, Toby Gerhart showed some punch in replacing AD last week and has the kind of power and balance that has stupefied Buffalo all season. I respect what the Bills have done in grossly outplaying their collective talent level for most of the last two months, but at some point all those close losses and heartbreaking finishes come to a head. I think it happens in Minnesota against a motivated Vikings team. Minnesota 31, Buffalo 17. St. Louis (19) at Arizona (30): Faithful reader Lou Dorenbos pointed out to me this week that I am 1-10 in picking Cardinals games this year. Thanks for the ego blow, my friend! What that tells me is that I should make my initial opinion about the Arizona game and run as far in the other direction as possible. My initial inclination was Rams 30-10, and I really don?t see any way the Cards team that played Monday night could produce much challenge to that outcome. Now I?m trapped in the mental gymnastics of ?Do I or don?t I?. The numbers and history all overwhelmingly indicate that my initial prognostication will be proven wrong. Yet every matchup I break down here of offense vs. defense validates a comfortable Rams victory. The battle of wits has begun! My built-up resistance to rational logic in the face of gut inclination forces me to look for outside help. So this pick comes courtesy of my 5-year old son Layne. He?s been near St. Louis but he?s never been close to Arizona, so he chose the Rams. St. Louis it is! Rams 30-10. Denver (29) at Kansas City (12): About the only intrigue here is the post-game handshake between Josh McDaniels and Todd Haley. You might recall that Haley stiffed McDaniels after the first meeting, a surprising Denver 49-29 win. This is a payback game featuring two leaky pass defenses and two strong passing attacks. Bet you thought I?d never say that about Matt Cassel and the Chiefs, huh? The over/under on this game is just 47.5, which I believe will be blown away early in the 3rd quarter in a game where I expect Haley to have no qualms about running up the score. Chiefs 40, Broncos 28. Now about that postgame handshake... Monday Game: New York Jets (2) at New England (1): I?ve gone back and forth on this game, but I keep going back to one matchup. I really like the quick-hit passing game of the Patriots against a Jets defense that isn?t quite as sharp as most people think it is. Brady to Welker and Woodhead is a real problem for the Jets, and Belichick is the kind of coach who will run the same play 10 times in a row until it gets stopped. The Jets should be able to move the ball as well, but their issues in the red zone concern me. No team has settled for more FGs, and to beat the Patriots you must score TDs. I also think the Patriots ability to protect the ball (just 9 turnovers in 11 games) will keep the Jets from getting field position and freebies. I also trust the Patriots wideouts more than I will ever trust Braylon Edwards to make the tough catch. That doesn?t mean The Sanchize won?t find success with Dustin Keller or Santonio Holmes, but they don?t have the consistent advantage here. Home field advantage matters here as well, though not as much as in most games because these teams are both excellent and know each other inside out. But this game is critical for deciding home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and I like the experience of the Patriots in understanding that importance to prevail. New England 23, New York 20. Drinking in the Dorm Room games: Last week: 2-4. Let?s just not talk about last week... Auburn 33, South Carolina 28 Nebraska 29, Oklahoma 24 Virginia Tech 20, Florida State 17 South Florida 28, UConn 27 Oregon 51, Oregon State 33 Bonus Game: Northern Illinois 30, Miami OH 10 Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com