Last Week: 10-6, my first double-digit win week of the year. Just like the Chargers, I?m getting hot at the right time! 91-68 on the season forecast. Turkey Day games: New England at Detroit: My family celebrated Thanksgiving early this year, which means a radical change in my holiday schedule. Normally we watch the first half of the Lions game and eat at halftime, knowing they?re not going to win. We usually pick up football coverage sometime in the first half of the Dallas game after the gorging and brief napping. Now I?m going to be forced to watch my beloved Lions get annihilated from start to finish. Perhaps their wretched play will force me to vomit enough that I can stuff down more turkey and pumpkin pie. The Lions might be vastly improved but they?ve not played well the last two weeks, and Jim Schwartz is not having a good month as a signal caller. New England rolls, stuffs, and gravy boats the Lions 43-20. New Orleans at Dallas: Here?s Jason Garrett?s best chance to convince Jerry Jones to give him the Cowboys coaching gig permanently. I like what he has done with the discipline and order that this team needed, but at some point they?re going to be pressed. Will his new style of leadership be able to hold up under that pressure? We?ll find out Thursday afternoon, because the Saints are quietly rolling right now, and they likely get Reggie Bush back to fundamentally alter the way defenses play them. Dallas has major trouble at LB other than DeMarcus Ware, which means all those slip screens, draws, and shallow crosses are going to be open all day for Drew Brees. I?ve always been a Jon Kitna fan, but the veteran Dallas QB will make too many mistakes to keep up in a shootout against the Saints. New Orleans is the better team and should win, but the Cowboys always play well on Thanksgiving at home and look like they?ve shaken off the 2009 hangover. The Saints win on a late FG, 33-31. Cincinnati at New York Jets: This is the NFL Network?s annual game, and you can be thankful if you don?t get the NFL Network to watch this turkey of a game. Cincy has gone into full tank mode, while the Jets have shown great resolve in winning close games that teetered on losses. This won?t be another one of those. Jets 30, Bengals 21. The Rest of the Weekend: Green Bay at Atlanta: Neither team has lost in a month, which makes this matchup of two playoff locks a very attractive game. It also makes it a very tough game to forecast. Atlanta?s pass defense continues to improve, and Jon Abraham will be a thorn in Aaron Rodger?s paw all afternoon. I also like the speed of the Atlanta LBs to help in coverage, but more to the point they will help limit the yards after the catch on shorter routes, which is where the Packers like to butter their bread. Green Bay?s secondary has also been playing pretty well, and they have an exceptional pass rusher of their own in Clay Matthews. But one of the reasons I like Atlanta in this game is how the Falcons use their RBs. They are great at screens, draws, counters, and hitting defenses at odd angles. As great as Mathews is, he will get caught up the field at times, and with the extra safety help needed on Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White, there will be running lanes and receiving options for the Falcons. Matt Ryan sees the field as well as any QB in the league, particularly when he?s at home. This Atlanta team is battle-tested and in remarkably good health this late in the year. Green Bay has the firepower to scare any defense, but their lack of run blocking and lack of strength at tight end leave them just a little short. Atlanta 20, Green Bay 17. Pittsburgh at Buffalo: One of the things I like to do on Monday mornings is to try and guess the spread of the next weekend?s games. I?m usually within a point or so, and when I find one that greatly deviates from my expectations I tend to run in the other direction. This game is a great example of applying that system. My initial guess here was Steelers -9.5, even on the road. When the spread opened at just 6.5, I was shocked. I think the bookies are overestimating the value of Buffalo beating Detroit and Cincinnati, neither of which has anywhere close to the defense or running game of the Steelers. Give the points and take the Steelers, 34-24. Carolina at Cleveland: The Browns finally get a break after playing a brutal month of legit Super Bowl contenders. Carolina is starting backups at several spots and plays very much like they know their coach and GM are lame ducks that don?t particularly want to return. As painful as the losses have been for Cleveland, they have played with maximum effort every snap this season and I expect that to continue here. It should pay some handsome dividends while rubbing the impressive success of Colt McCoy into the face of the one team that needed him more, but chose the underwhelming Jimmy Clausen instead. Browns 25, Panthers 10. Tennessee at Houston: Few teams have fallen further in the last month than these two AFC South rivals. This game would have been for first place if it were played in early October, but now it?s a battle for staying alive in the desperate playoff race. Houston can?t stop anyone from throwing, probably not even rookie QB Rusty Smith making his first start for Tennessee. As long as Smith doesn?t turn the ball over, the Titans should have enough to outscore the inconsistent Texans offense. Houston tends to forget they have Arian Foster, and they?ll have trouble protecting Matt Schaub against a still-strong Tennessee front. I like Tennessee even with a greenhorn QB. Titans 33, Texans 27. Jacksonville at New York Giants: When the lines first came out for this one, the Giants were 9 point favorites. That?s way too high of a number for a team missing its top two receivers, not to mention an egregious disrespect for the first-place Jaguars, winners of three in a row and a team generally much better offensively on the road. The line has moved to 7 points now, and that takes it to the ?moved 2+ points? threshold. In the gambling community that?s akin to knowing the dealer will have 17; it?s an easy one to win if you trust the cards you?re dealt. I think the G-Men?s struggles are for real, but getting out of the NFC East will help them. Giants win 24-21 but trust the professionals: take the points and run with the Jaguars. Minnesota at Washington: Interim coach Leslie Frazier takes over for Minnesota, which I believe is a very good thing for this team. Recent trends have strongly favored interim coaches in their first week, but I also think the team has wanted Frazier as their coach and respects him more than Brad Childress could ever dream of. That is the sort of bounce the Vikings need, and if it inspires Frazier?s defense they will still be a formidable foe as they play out the string...as long as a certain #4 hasn?t mailed it in. Vikings 24, Redskins 20. Miami at Oakland: This is the game where we really learn about the Raiders. Oakland desperately wanted last week to be a statement game, but the trip to Pittsburgh said all the wrong things. Now they get to go home against a terribly wounded Miami team that will start its third string QB behind as many as four linemen that don?t normally start in the positions they?ll be manning. If Oakland doesn?t win this one you can expect a violent Easy Bay meltdown--perhaps in the locker room. Jason Campbell and the Raiders cruise 25-10. Kansas City at Seattle: Two teams trending in the wrong direction try to stop the bleeding and stay in their respective division driver?s seats. Kansas City found a nice tourniquet in the hapless Cardinals, but that was at home and the Cards folded quickly. Seattle is an awfully tough place to play, and the weather looks rainy and windy. That will slow down Dwayne Bowe, who is really emerging as a more consistent threat at WR. I really like the two-headed Chiefs rushing attack to wear down the Seattle defense, and even if the conditions are poor the Chiefs still have the better weaponry in the passing game. Kansas City almost never loses to NFC West teams as well, taking 10 in a row and 15 of their last 17, including 9 of 10 on the road. Chiefs 27, Seahawks 20. Tampa Bay at Baltimore: Tampa Bay showed me a lot in traveling to San Francisco and pasting the Niners, but the Ravens are a different bird. The Ravens are most vulnerable defensively over the top, and Josh Freeman has shown he will take chances to Mike Williams down the field. But I really like Baltimore?s offense here. Joe Flacco is much better when he has time and has a running game, and he?ll likely have a lot of both here. The Ravens are at home, where their defense is superior and their special teams livelier. It all adds up to a Baltimore 26-20 win. Philadelphia at Chicago: Normally I?m a little critical of the pretty vanilla defense that Lovie Smith and the Bears deploy, but it should serve them well in containing Michael Vick. Lovie?s defenses depend greatly on positional responsibility, and the Bears stick to that exceptionally well even as they blitz more and mix coverages a bit. The problem for Chicago in this game is their offensive line. It?s been better since the positions were stabilized, but the talent gulf between the Chicago OL and the Philly DL is massive. Also consider that the last two times Mike Martz faced the Eagles, his teams lost by a combined 96-47 margin with 11 turnovers. I think the Bears D will be game but won?t be able to overcome the points given up by their offense. Philly takes a huge step towards home field advantage in the playoffs with a 27-21 road win. St. Louis at Denver: For no particular reason based on anything legitimate, I really like the Broncos at home here. The Rams have yet to win on the road, and the weather in Denver could be gnarly. That?s always an interesting experience for a rookie QB of a dome team. Even as bad as Denver was Monday night, they are the sort of team with very little week-to-week carryover. Broncos 27, Rams 20. San Diego at Indianapolis: This decision came down to which team I believe needs to win here more. Even though the Chargers are 5-5 and the Colts 6-4, Indy is the more desperate team. San Diego has had Peyton Manning?s number, winning four of the last six, but this Chargers team isn?t as potent on either side of the ball. Indy is undefeated at home and the fans will certainly help Manning direct the inexperienced cast around him while making life difficult for Philip Rivers and his greenhorns. Even with Vincent Jackson coming back, I still like the Colts to have more success than most against the high-flying San Diego passing attack. You?ll have a hard time convincing me that these Colts are going to miss the playoffs, and they need a win here to prevent falling in greater peril of having that happen. Manning simply won?t let that go down. Colts 29, Chargers 27. San Francisco at Arizona: I?m looking forward to a Monday night where I can actually go to bed early. Unless you are a die-hard fan of either team, I suggest you do the same instead of watching this debacle. Cardinals 24, 49ers 17. Drinking in the Dorm Room Games Last Week: 4-1. Perhaps the best college weekend of the season, loaded with rivalry games and matchups that will help make the bowl picture much clearer. Ohio State 44, Michigan 29. I speak for all Buckeyes fans when I implore the Michigan regents to decide to keep RichRod as coach. LSU 30, Arkansas 28 Florida State 20, Florida 17. My apologies to the Gators in my family, with whom I?ve had a wonderful week visiting in sunny Florida. Alabama 31, Auburn 28. Auburn?s dirty little secret: their defense can?t stop good offenses. Oregon 47, Arizona 36. Ducks survive for another week. Bonus game: Oklahoma State 35, Oklahoma 20. The better team wins. Have a wonderful, thankful weekend! Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com