Last Week: 7-7. Season forecast is now 81-62. A quick bonus $.02 for some news that broke since Sunday night... $.01-- It?s amazing how everyone ran with questionable information regarding the Donovan McNabb contract extension. I may have been merely a history major, but isn?t there a journalistic obligation to check your facts and verify sources? Once again in the rush to be first, those crossing the line early took the Rosie Ruiz way and stammered like Rush Limbaugh checking into rehab with all the people he deemed a plague on society when called on it. Those who were hysterical at the initial reports ($40M guaranteed! $78M over 5 years for a 34 year old!) had precious little to say once the real numbers actually came out (just $3.5M guaranteed, thanks Mike Florio at ProFootballTalk!). The meat of the deal is structured in a way where Washington can move on after this season without getting hit for a huge payout. That makes sense to me as a sort of mutual option. McNabb, or rather his agent, can sniff around and see if greener pastures are out there, while the Skins can ponder what they might get with their draft pick and if the team is ready to move on. My gut tells me the Skins are going to look long and hard at Cam Newton in the draft, but McNabb will be convinced to give it one more year in Washington when he can?t get a better deal anywhere else. $.02-- Carolina placed DeAngelo Williams on injured reserve, ending his season and almost certainly capping his Panthers career. It?s not that they shelved Williams, who has healed slowly but could have come back in another couple of weeks, which is noteworthy. Not much is noteworthy for a 1-8 team about to start their 4th QB behind 3 backup linemen and with their 4th string RB. What makes this interesting, or frightening depending on your perspective, is that the Panthers rebuffed several inquiries for Williams services before the trade deadline. One well-placed source told me at the time that his team offered Carolina a 2nd round and a 5th round pick for Williams and a 7th round pick, but lame duck Panthers GM Marty Hurney quickly rejected it. These Panthers are woefully short on offensive talent but almost freakishly deep at running back. Williams will be a free agent at the end of the season and will certainly find richer suitors outside of Charlotte. Getting nothing in return when they had to know the likelihood of Williams signing with them is somewhere between slim and none says a whole lot about the direction of this franchise. If you are a Panthers fan, you should be very concerned that this year isn?t the bottom but rather the start of the slide. Chicago (15) at Miami (21): Everyone is making a huge deal out of Miami losing their top two quarterbacks, but the injury to stud LT Jake Long is going to impact them more. Tyler Thigpen is a feisty gunslinger with good mobility and more experience than most 3rd stringers. He?s actually kind of similar to Jay Cutler, supremely confident in his arm and not afraid to take chances, sometimes with great positives but also fraught with potential disaster. It?s imperative for Chicago to mix up the coverage looks and bring pressure from more than just the front four, keeping Thigpen off balance and putting defenders where he doesn?t expect them. Losing Long, who is highly questionable with what may or may not be a torn labrum, really hurts. Julius Peppers hasn?t been the sack machine most Bears fans expected, but Pep has still played pretty well and commands a lot of attention. Miami will likely slide protections that way, which leaves the interior pass rush lanes open for a well-timed Urlacher blitz or a nice twist. Because the Dolphins lack a TE that scares defenses, WLB Lance Briggs can take more chances and instigate more action, and that means trouble for Thigpen. I also really like Chicago?s special teams to have a big day. Having Cameron wake out for Miami?s defense is a huge blow too. And from the ?when a series of outcomes becomes a trend? department: road underdogs are not only 11-4 against the spread on Thursday games, but they?ve outright won 10 of those last 15. All signs point to Chicago and the upset on Thursday night. Bears 29, Dolphins 21. Indianapolis (7) at New England (1): Lots of people roll their eyes, but I have a genuine appreciation for the consistent greatness of both these franchises. It?s a testament to the strong organization, stability, and having Hall of Fame quarterbacks. I know many tire of the East Coast media fawning all over Peyton and Brady, Belichick and Polian, et al, but in a league where so many teams bubble up and fizzle to the bottom yearly, I find it pretty awesome that these two teams are legit Super Bowl contenders every year. Maybe it?s because I?m from Cleveland, which hasn?t had a champ in any sport since 1964 and won?t have any team (Cavs, Browns, Indians) finish with a winning record for the 17th time in my 38 years. Perhaps it?s because I lived in Indianapolis when the Colts first moved there, teams that were the worst I?d see until the Millen-era Lions. I think that makes me appreciate teams that can sustain being so strong for so long more than most people. I really wish more people felt that way instead of grumbling about ?another Colts-Patriots potential AFC title game preview?. As for the game itself, I?m quite bullish on the Patriots. It?s going to be chilly and windy in New England on Sunday, conditions that have given Peyton Manning trouble in the past. Technically it?s been more of a problem for his receivers, who have a harder time catching his laser throws and making sharp cuts on the looser turf, but balls do tend to sail more when it?s colder too. Indy?s run offense has a faint pulse but likely won?t find much success here either. But where I really like New England is the matchup of their passing offense against the Colts pass defense. That Pats OL has been very good recently, other than against the confusing Browns chaos. Indy?s defense is very predictable; everyone knows how to attack it, but it?s not easy because they execute so well. But when the QB has time and isn?t afraid to spray the ball all over the field, the defense is vulnerable. Matt Schaub and the Texans and David Garrard and the Jaguars proved that early this year, and Brady and his band of merry men are quite apt to do so in this one. I expect a lot of Patriots to catch passes, keeping the Colts defense from settling in and slowing down the exceptional pass rush of Freeney and Mathis. New England 27, Indianapolis 21. New York Giants (5) at Philadelphia (6): If you just look at last week?s games, you have to really like the Eagles. But I think both of those games were cases of ?Any Given Sunday? (Monday in Philly?s case), not exactly flukes but also not real accurate indicators of who these teams really are. We will know a lot more about them after this one, which is a huge game in terms of NFC playoff seeding and home field advantage. My initial inclination was to pick the Giants, but that was more out of being a contrarian than anything football related. I?m inclined to believe that the Eagles are a little too high on the horse after such an amazing performance, and they hit this game with a short week to prepare. But the Eagles have handled big wins well in the past, and they know the Giants inside out as division rivals, so game prep isn?t really an issue. And it?s not like the Redskins made them work real hard Monday night. The bottom line here will be QB play. Eli Manning had one of his patented, frustrating clunkers last week. He usually bounces back with little hangover, but not having Steve Smith hurts. Mike Vick was incredible, and he?s a perfect fit for the speed Philly has outside the numbers. I like that he can beat a defense with both his arm and his legs now, and especially that he understands that he can do that. The arm has always been there but he never trusted it in the heat of battle, preferring to do it himself with his legs or struggling with accuracy because he lacked confidence in either his throwing or his teammates. All those issues appear resolved, and I love how Vick handled himself postgame. This guy finally gets it. That is trouble for the Giants and the rest of the NFC. Philly 21, New York 17. Oakland (14) at Pittsburgh (3): A lot of pundits are going to write off the Raiders in this one, but I give Oakland a reasonable chance to pull off the improbable win here. After all, they beat the Steelers a year ago and are 2-2 at Heinz Field despite being largely awful overall since the stadium opened nine years ago. I like Oakland?s defensive front against the Steelers patchwork line, which was completely overwhelmed by the Patriots, particularly the guards. Pittsburgh also really missed ILB Lawrence Timmons, and they?ll need him to slow down Darren McFadden and a rested Raiders rushing attack. I greatly favor the Oakland punting and field goal kicking units here; Pittsburgh finally had enough of kicker Jeff Reed?s inaccuracy and brought in Sean Suisham, which is not much, if any, of an upgrade. So why am I picking the Steelers? Foremost, I expect a strong bounceback effort from Pittsburgh after the humbling loss. Troy Polamalu is coming off the worst effort of his career, and I think he?ll take out that frustration on the Raiders. Oakland hasn?t been as strong on the road, and something about playing in Pittsburgh tends to exacerbate boneheaded penalties, which the Raiders still commit far more than Coach Cable would like. And for all the speed and decent talent in the Oakland secondary, they still surrender too many big plays in the passing game. Big Ben to Mike Wallace is going to haunt the Raiders in this one. I think the bookies are a little too bullish on the home team here, giving 8.5. Take the Raiders and the points, but Pittsburgh survives for a hard-fought 25-21 win. Washington (22) at Tennessee (11): Two teams trending in the wrong direction both try to salvage playoff potential here. I?m much more secure with Tennessee and who they are, even with Vince Young at QB instead of the injured Kerry Collins. Young actually presents the Titans with a better chance to exploit what ails the Redskins defense with his mobility. As Michael Vick demonstrated in amazing fashion Monday night, quarterbacks that can throw on the run with the threat of the run built in are lethal to Washington?s pass defense. The Titans don?t have the speed at WR to do as much damage, but this is the kind of game where Randy Moss will pay dividends. He will be able to get behind the defense, and that has a huge impact on the way Washington has to play defense. They either have to blitz more to get the ball out of Young?s hand quicker (assuming he in fact sees the blitz, an open question), or drop the safeties deeper and give more cushion outside. That opens up running lanes for Chris Johnson, but also the quick-hit short throws and Young scrambles. This appears to shape up as another game where Washington will have to throw the ball a lot, and I do think McNabb will find success...just not frequently enough to keep up with the Joneses, err, Titans. Take the over in a Tennessee 33-24 home win. Arizona (28) at Kansas City (16): If you haven?t used the Chiefs yet in your survivor fantasy pool, this is the week to pull the trigger. Heading home should cure a lot of what ails Kansas City, and drawing the sinking Cardinals helps even more. Arizona can?t defend the pass at all, nor can the run the ball at all. Make sure you keep Dwayne Bowe and Tony Moeaki active on your fantasy teams, and the Chiefs defense might make a good value play in salary cap leagues. Chiefs 30, Cardinals 13. Green Bay (9) at Minnesota (26): There is no logical reason for this pick, but I just see Favre and the Vikings pulling one more rabbit out of the proverbial hat. Green Bay is absolutely the better team and they should greatly benefit from the bye week. But I refer to my axiom that heavy pass-centric offenses struggle coming off bye weeks, and the Vikings very nearly won in Green Bay last month. I can?t explain it, but I just really like Minnesota here. I also like Keanu Reeves movies and cold spaghetti, so my taste isn?t exactly sharp. Vikings 27, Packers 24. Houston (27) at New York Jets (2): The Texans are on pace to threaten records for the worst defense in NFL history in a number of stat metrics: passing yardage per game, opposing QB rating, total yards per game, and most passing TDs allowed. Houston?s offense is pretty explosive, but they are not good enough to overcome the appalling defense. Here?s all you really need to know about Houston?s defense: Mario Williams, the first pick in the 2006 draft, has the same amount of tackles over the last month as the Texans? punter and kicker together. The Jets offense will greatly appreciate the break after facing a pesky Browns unit that brings all sorts of looks. New York successfully vanquished Cleveland with a perfect read from The Sanchize and Santonio Holmes deep into overtime, the exact type of play the Texans have zero hope of stopping. It?s surprising to me that Mark Sanchez is the lowest-rated passer of any QB who has started every game this year, but he gets a chance to climb the ladder this week. I do think Houston will score enough to keep it interesting, but there?s no way the Jets lose this game unless they give it away. Oh yeah, the Texans rank last in forcing turnovers too. Jets 37, Texans 28. Atlanta (4) at St. Louis (17): The Falcons really showed me something with their resiliency, not to mention their firepower, in coming from ahead to come from behind to beat the Ravens. St. Louis is not an easy trip, but the Rams are the kind of team that Atlanta should beat. Troy Smith picked apart their defense last week, often under heavy pressure, and I suspect Matt Ryan will be able to do the same. I like the direction the Rams are heading, and a win here would put them right back in the thick of the NFC playoff mix. Yet I?m a firm believer that very good teams like the Falcons win games like these over merely good teams like the Rams, who don?t have the firepower to pull a big upset without getting some help from the other side. To that end, the Falcons lead the league in turnover ratio and are 7th in penalty yardage differential, a strong indication that they don?t beat themselves. Atlanta 24, St. Louis 13. Tampa Bay (18) at San Francisco (25): The midseason story for these two teams was completely opposite. San Francisco had the talent but made all sorts of mistakes, both physical and mental, and struggled as a major disappointment (to some, not me). Tampa maximized their talent and played very relaxed, smart football, avoiding turnovers and stunning everyone (myself definitely included) by surging to a 5-2 start. But last week things changed with the advent of the second half of the season. Tampa turned the ball over twice, committed 10 penalties, and showed defensive vulnerabilities to Carolina--all in a win that followed a wrenching loss to Atlanta. It appears that teams have started to read the Raheem Morris book a little more clearly, and that makes continued overachievement difficult. Meanwhile, San Francisco inserted Troy Smith to the starting lineup and watched a QB win a game for them by making a clutch throw and not crumbling under pressure. Smith?s competence alleviates a lot of what ails the San Francisco offense, which had zero confidence and played uptight. Their defense is still a work in progress, but they have shown more grit recently. This is a game where getting an early lead is critical. The San Fran crowd would love to cheer on the Niners at home, but if Tampa gets off to an early 10-point lead the Bay Area fans will turn on their team like Cleveland turned on LeNron James. I see this as a ?water finds its level? game, and that means the Niners get the win. San Francisco 20, Tampa Bay 17. Seattle (19) at New Orleans (8): This looks like a potential Wild Card round playoff matchup, believe it or not. That pretty accurately sums up this NFL season thus far: mediocre craziness. I don?t see any way Seattle survives the New Orleans defense with their wobbly OL, certainly not in the dome with the raucous fans making it hard to communicate. Question for a couple of noted draftniks who thought I was nuts for ranking Golden Tate so lowly: how you like him now? Trust me, Matt Hasselbeck feels even worse about it. Saints 32, Seahawks 17. Denver (24) at San Diego (12): If it?s November, it must be the Chargers surging in the standings. Even though Denver took out a whole lot of frustration a week ago against a decent KC team, I don?t see them being able to do it again. One of the reasons is the lack of quality frontline talent, something that is underscored by Wednesday?s release of 2007 1st rounder Jarvis Moss. From Mike Shanahan and former GM Ted Sunquist giving away draft picks in poor trades to drafting obvious non-NFL players like Maurice Clarett to overdrafting a skinny, passionless reach like Moss, this team has a lot to overcome. Every so often they?ll put it together and strike, but that lightning is tough to ride two weeks in a row. San Diego is a very potent Bolt, and it will cook the Broncos this week. Chargers 33, Broncos 24. Buffalo (30) at Cincinnati (29): I bet TO is stunned that he left Buffalo for Cincinnati to get a better shot at winning and a better QB, but now he finds that neither is the case. Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing superior football to Carson Palmer, and the Bills have been more competitive week in and out than the Bengals. Cincy is my most disappointing team of the year now that they have plunged further into the abyss, and this is the type of game a disappointing team often sleepwalks through, mired in pity and wallowing in apathy and dreams of what might have been. Bills win two in a row a la the Rams of a couple years ago, when they were 0-4 before winning two in a row, then proceeding to lose all the rest. Bills 24, Bengals 17. Detroit (31) at Dallas (23): The two traditional Thanksgiving hosts square off in an appetizer about as appealing as raw squid served over soggy Golden Grahams. Expect a whole host of penalties and a lot of stupid mental errors from both sides. Expect more of those from Detroit, which is teetering on the brink of blowing all the early positive buzz thanks to flat-out unacceptable play and iffy (to be kind) coaching the past couple of weeks. Dallas found a spark last week with their coaching change, but that was to be expected. Interim coaches often get a strong week or two as the shock of job security hits the players and they try to endear themselves to the man that could be their new, permanent boss. I think some of that will wear off for Jason Garrett this week, but they still have more than enough to punish the hapless Lions. This will make 26 road losses in a row and counting for Detroit. Dallas 28, Detroit 20. Baltimore (10) at Carolina (32): The way to beat the Ravens is through the air, but the Panthers have one of the weakest passing attacks in NFL history and will start either Brian St. Pierre, who was a stay-at-home dad a week ago, or unimpressive rookie 6th rounder Tony Pike. Baltimore is angry after losing on national TV and rested with the mini-bye that benefits teams playing on Thursdays. Watch at your own peril. Ravens 20, Panthers 6. Cleveland (20) at Jacksonville (13): First flip: heads. Second flip: tails. Third flip: tails. Now was it best of 3? Okay, best of five. Fourth flip: my 2-year old daughter steals the quarter before I can see which way it landed, and she won?t give it back without making pterodactyl sounds that scare the neighbors. Spend next 5 minutes looking for another coin, eventually finding one in my car ?ashtray?. Forgot results of first session of flips. Okay, best of 3, heads is JAX. First flip: tails. Second flip: heads. Phone rings, it?s my mother in law. Finally get to final flip: heads. Jacksonville wins in a game that probably won?t be as entertaining to me as trying to pick it. Jaguars 21, Browns 20. No more bye weeks, hurray! Drinking in the Dorm Room games: Last Week: 2-3, but I?m still buzzed about Ohio University blowing away Temple in the rain Tuesday night. Beat Kent St. (can?t read, can?t write, Kent State) next week and the Bobcats are back in the MAC title game. Go Cats! Ohio State 20, Iowa 18. The Buckeyes defense will be the difference. Texas A&M 33, Nebraska 31. The Aggies would be 9-1 if they would have yanked Johnson sooner. Virginia Tech 36, Miami 20. Hokies are peaking now, while the Canes struggle against strong opponents. Wisconsin 52, Michigan 41 Maryland 27, Florida State 24 on a strong hunch from a gambling friend. There you go, Shiv! Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com