RealGM Wiretap
Baltimore (3) at Atlanta (9): The Thursday Night Football schedule on the NFL Network kicks off with a great matchup that just might be a Super Bowl foreshadowing. Sadly, most of you won?t be able to watch it from the comfort of your own homes because the NFL Network and most cable companies remain deadlocked at a ridiculous impasse. I?ve often used this dispute as a reason for pessimism regarding the new CBA negotiations; if the NFL won?t sacrifice any ground on a relatively minor issue like cable pricing rights--and the difference between the two sides is indeed quite minor--then how can we expect them to acquiesce any turf to the NFLPA? This dispute with the cable companies shows the NFL can be a bullheaded, obstinate megalith that cares not for its fans or common sense. Oh yeah, the game. I like the Falcons at home, where Matt Ryan almost never loses and where their offensive speed can cause real problems for the leaky Baltimore secondary. But having Roddy White and center Todd McClure both iffy complicates the picture. Haloti Ngata is playing as well as any D-lineman in the league, and not having their starting center at full strength could be a major problem for Atlanta. But I think the Atlanta defense will be able to make enough plays to somehow prevail at home. Atlanta 23, Baltimore 21. Houston (24) at Jacksonville (16): Living in Houston, the attitude surrounding the Texans is sobering. A promising start has been squandered, and now the team faces the very real danger of an extended slide towards a very high draft pick. This game is crucially important for the direction of the rest of the season for Houston. A loss here would suck any remaining life from the team and act like an anchor, dragging down the listless defense and inconsistent offense to the point where they might now win another game. I?m not exaggerating here; check their schedule and this is their easiest game until the finale when they host these same Jaguars. All their history suggests that the Texans will fold like a cheap, poorly constructed tent under that sort of pressure. Their defense is allowing unfathomable production every week, and the problems extend far beyond whipping-boy rookie CB Kareem Jackson. Coach Kubiak has an alarming tendency to overthink and try to outsmart the opponent when he has the offensive firepower to just let ?em go out and play. The Jaguars tend to play much better in divisional games (the MNF debacle against the Titans notwithstanding) and have proven that when David Garrard gets time, they have a very efficient, effective offense. Mario Williams remains M.I.A. and Brian Cushing is clearly not the same player after his steroid bust, which means the Texans lack any sort of impact defensive force. That?s just a terrible matchup for Houston, and I?m not sold that Matt Schaub & Co. can outscore teams anymore, not with Andre Johnson clearly hobbled and the rest of the WR corps regressing by the week. The Jaguars stay in the crowded AFC playoff race while sending the Texans? once-promising season down the drain. Jacksonville 28, Houston 24. Minnesota (21) at Chicago (20): I really like what I saw from the Vikings defensive line last week, using their depth to keep fresh and increase potency. Chicago continues to have major trouble protecting Jay Cutler, and I don?t see them being able to run the ball on Minnesota the way they did against the hapless Bills. The flip side is that I don?t think the Vikings OL can handle the Bears defense very well either. With Percy Harvin once again struggling with migraines, that potentially limits their best weapon to combat Chicago?s very strong linebackers. It took some serious Favre magic for the Vikings offense to pull off last week?s win, and I simply do not trust he can pull another rabbit out of his hat here. With the tenuous grasp Brad Childress has on his team, I worry that a slow start will be the final straw in the building mutiny. The pulse from the Vikings players is that they are in it for themselves, which is a tricky situation as far as predicting games is concerned. Would they really tank a game in order to get rid of Childress, or will they play inspired football in a prideful effort to save their season and beat a division rival they know they are superior to in the grand scheme of things? That?s a toughie, but I?m going to bet on professional pride here. Minnesota in a 20-17 squeaker. Tennessee (6) at Miami (17): Miami coach Tony Sparano has made the intriguing and difficult decision to switch QBs, going back to Chad Pennington in place of Chad Henne. No doubt Henne has struggled, but I find this decision fraught with disaster--and Tennessee?s defense is a big reason for that. Pennington excels at pinpoint accuracy and avoiding turnovers, neither of which are strong suits of Henne. But his lack of arm strength is a severe limiting factor for the offense that I think will cause just as many problems. Teams won?t commit safeties to help covering deep routes because the odds are slim that Pennington can get the ball to the receiver 30+ yards down the field without the corner being able to recover even if badly beaten. Taking that safety and putting him into the box to help even more against a somewhat lackluster rushing attack makes Ronnie Brown?s sledding even tougher. Teams are going to dare Pennington to beat them over the top. He might be the smartest guy in the room and on the field, but Pennington will have trouble finding holes and won?t have much of a run game to help him out. I suspect we?ll see the Dolphins move the ball pretty well between the 20s but struggle in the red zone. I get Sparano?s thinking that avoiding turnovers and stupid plays are worth the potential loss of potency, but the Titans are a bad opponent to audition that strategy. Their waves of variable pressure disrupt timing and precision, and you beat that by challenging them deep and taking risks. Pennington simply cannot do that anymore. I think this one will be very low scoring and could come down to one big play. Be it special teams or a missed tackle on Chris Johnson, I like Tennessee to make that big play. Coming off a bye, I expect Jeff Fisher to have a wrinkle or two that will catch the Dolphins off guard, and I like the fresh legs aspect as well. Tennessee wins on the road 17-10. Detroit (27) at Buffalo (31): The loss of Matthew Stafford to his latest shoulder injury is a devastating blow to the Lions, who have shown major improvement this season. Stafford was the difference between being pretty competitive and being able to win those games, but this injury has more long-term implications that greatly worry this long-time Lions fan. You have to wonder if Stafford will ever be durable enough to assume the role of franchise QB and long-term solution at a position of chronic lacking in Detroit. I suspect he?ll get one last shot next season, and I?m praying he can make it 16 games in 2011...assuming there is football in 2011. The Bills don?t care about Detroit?s problems, not when they still have a giant goose egg in the win column. They have been close several times but have not been able to get key stops or avoid the one crucial mistake that costs them games. They do not match up well with Detroit?s strengths even sans Stafford. The Lions defensive line is a major problem, as are Jahvid Best and Calvin Johnson--playmakers on offense. In my mind, that means this game falls upon the Detroit quarterback. If it was going to be Drew Stanton, I would have picked the Bills with no hesitation. But Shaun Hill will come back from his broken left arm and handle the reins, and even with the potential problems of taking snaps and handing off (which he did fine in practice on Wed.), I like Hill to be able to use the weapons at hand to keep the Bills winless. It won?t be easy though. Detroit 27, Buffalo 24. NY Jets (5) at Cleveland (18): So many subplots here make this game a surprising marquee matchup. The Ryan brothers on opposite sidelines, The Mangenius facing his old team, the braggadocio Jets against the understated Browns--it makes for a host of wonderful stories in what should be a pretty darn good game regardless. Cleveland has really found something with their power run game, and their O-line is good enough to make it work against the Jets. It is incumbent upon David Harris and the Jets safeties to not abandon their gaps and to read their keys properly, or else Peyton Hillis is poised to have another monster day. Hillis has quick feet and great balance for a power back, which means that tacklers must get the proper angle and leverage right away. The Jets will want to make Colt McCoy and the underwhelming Browns receivers (among them former Jet Chansi Stuckey) beat them. Because the Jets won?t respect the receivers to have any shot at beating Revis and Cromartie on the corners, expect a lot of blitzes, and not just on passing downs. I anticipate a lot of run dogs and edge crashing by the Jets defense, and I think that will slow down the Browns. Cleveland?s secondary has played much better recently but will still give up the occasional big play, and former Browns wideout Braylon Edwards has a nasty habit of haunting Cleveland. He?s typically good for only one great play per game, but in this one I think that might be enough. Jets 13, Browns 10. Cincinnati (22) at Indianapolis (7): Of all the intrigue that surrounded the Bengals in their tough Monday Night loss to Pittsburgh, one particular play stood out to me. That would be Mike Wallace?s touchdown from Antwan Randle El, where CB Leon Hall was in perfect position to make a play and just failed to do so. Hall is a talented player, but it was almost like he couldn?t believe Wallace would actually go get the ball. That sort of passivity has plagued the Bengals defense all year, and it?s a stark contrast to last year?s hyper-aggression that was so successful. Given Carson Palmer?s struggles when games actually mean something, that kind of defense just isn?t going to get the job done. It certainly won?t get the job done against the Colts, who continue to pile up points despite all sorts of injuries. The loss to Philly was tough, but this team knows how to bounce back. I think the home cooking and an intense week of practice will do them well. Colts 30, Bengals 21, but I would put good money on the score being 24-7 before the Bengals mount their rally. Carolina (30) at Tampa Bay (15): Carolina gets to choose between highly ineffective Jimmy Clausen and complete greenhorn Tony Pike at quarterback, sort of the worst of both rookie worlds. Their offense was pathetically inept with the somewhat competent Matt Moore running the show, and both feature RBs are also banged up and questionable at best. If ever there was a week for the Tampa defense to shine, it?s this one. Considering the Bucs seldom turn the ball over and have great confidence in winning close games, this one is as close to a lock as you?ll get in the NFL these days. Tampa Bay 20, Carolina 3. Kansas City (13) at Denver (29): This is a more dangerous game for the Chiefs than it might appear at first blush. Denver comes off a much-needed bye that gave Josh McDaniels and his staff time to do some critical self-scouting and make some needed tweaks. Getting Knowshon Moreno healthy helps diversify the offense, but where the rest will really come in handy is with the aged Broncos secondary. Kansas City still struggles to throw the ball with any sort of consistency, and they showed a lot of sloppy fundamentals in losing to the Raiders, a game which the officials tried hand over foot to hand to them. This is a big test for Todd Haley and his coaching staff, avoiding the letdown after a tough loss and doing so on the road against a rested divisional opponent that can throw the ball very well. I?m going to give Haley & Co. the benefit of the doubt on this one. Denver is just too poor at too many things to beat good teams, and the Chiefs are still a good team. I think. Kansas City 30, Denver 28. Dallas (32) at NY Giants (2): What a way for the Jason Garrett era to kick off! The Giants have been the best team in football over the last five weeks, whereas the Cowboys have been the worst and shown the least fight. Garrett and Jerry Jones learn the hard way that the in-season coaching change almost invariably proves the problems run much deeper than the deposed coach. Giants 37, Cowboys 17. St. Louis (23) at San Francisco (28): This is a huge game for the Rams, who now hold the pathetic NFC West division in their hands. They come off a bye week and face a resurgent Niners team that has growing confidence in their new QB, Troy Smith. St. Louis has generally done just enough to win against lesser teams and has not had the talent to hang one on the big boys yet. A win here would quell one division opponent while doing wonders in their own locker room. I get the sense from people on and around the team that Coach Spagnuolo is acutely aware of this and his team is buying into what he is selling here. I really do like Troy Smith?s opportunism to help out the scattershot San Francisco offense, but they have a lot more defensive issues than they like to admit. A rested Rams team and Steven Jackson should be able to take advantage. Rams in a close one, 23-20. Seattle (26) at Arizona (25): Two of the most inconstant, indecipherable teams square off in what might be the cloudiest game to forecast all season. Arizona?s offense is lousy, but they keep getting huge plays from their special teams and defense, which together have almost outscored their own offense. Seattle has no offensive line and their DL really misses Red Bryant. Even with Matt Hasselbeck returning, I give the edge to the Cardinals and their ability to create nontraditional points. Watch this one at your own peril! Cards 26, Seahawks 17. New England (4) at Pittsburgh (1): New England?s crushing loss to the Browns was eye opening in how undisciplined the Patriots defense played. Cleveland took full advantage of the lack of positional responsibility of the inside backers and the softness of the safeties. When the Patriots defense is playing well it slows like a gaggle of geese in flight, with lots of moving parts working in harmony to produce efficiency and potency. But in watching the Cleveland game, there was no form or cohesion to the defense; it was like watching a group of 8-year olds hyped up on too much cotton candy trying to corral a greased pig at the county fair. I suspect they will perform much better this week. I also suspect it won?t be good enough to beat the Steelers. Pittsburgh will miss Max Starks up front, but I really like the running style of Rashard Mendenhall against this chaotic, leaderless young New England defense. If the Cleveland defense could shut down the Patriots, the Steelers can absolutely do the same. Pittsburgh always plays better at home and typically ups the ante even further against the good teams. Despite all their recent success the Patriots are prone to these mid-season hiccups. Burp. Pittsburgh 27, New England 18. Philadelphia (10) at Washington (19): The overriding question here is whether or not Donovan McNabb received the message Mike Shanahan clumsily and obnoxiously sent him: get better prepared or off with your head. McNabb shouldn?t have trouble finding motivation to face his former team, but he?s always marched to a different drummer and it?s hard to syncopate his rhythm with the team. My humble prediction: this game will be decided by the end of the first quarter. If Philly can jump out to an early double-digit lead, McNabb mails it in and the Redskins are toast. But if the Skins can find some early success and Mike Vick struggles against the rested defense, the home crowd will rally behind McNabb and he?ll play his butt off. Hard to forecast which way it will happen, but the Eagles are the better team and are playing with great confidence after beating the Colts. I?ll stick with them, but don?t say you weren?t warned! Philly 24, Washington 17. Bye Week: San Diego (12), Oakland (14), Green Bay (11), New Orleans (8) Drinking in the Dorm Room Games Last Week: 3-2, stung by South Carolina purposely tanking to save themselves for Florida. Florida 27, South Carolina 23. Violate the laws of karma at your peril, Steve Spurrier! Arizona 20, USC 17 Utah 33, Notre Dame 20 Georgia Tech 26, Miami 24 Alabama 24, Mississippi State 21
NFL Picks For Week 10
Baltimore (3) at Atlanta (9): The Thursday Night Football schedule on the NFL Network kicks off with a great matchup that just might be a Super Bowl foreshadowing. Sadly, most of you won?t be able to watch it from the comfort of your own homes because the NFL Network and most cable companies remain deadlocked at a ridiculous impasse. I?ve often used this dispute as a reason for pessimism regarding the new CBA negotiations; if the NFL won?t sacrifice any ground on a relatively minor issue like cable pricing rights--and the difference between the two sides is indeed quite minor--then how can we expect them to acquiesce any turf to the NFLPA? This dispute with the cable companies shows the NFL can be a bullheaded, obstinate megalith that cares not for its fans or common sense. Oh yeah, the game. I like the Falcons at home, where Matt Ryan almost never loses and where their offensive speed can cause real problems for the leaky Baltimore secondary. But having Roddy White and center Todd McClure both iffy complicates the picture. Haloti Ngata is playing as well as any D-lineman in the league, and not having their starting center at full strength could be a major problem for Atlanta. But I think the Atlanta defense will be able to make enough plays to somehow prevail at home. Atlanta 23, Baltimore 21. Houston (24) at Jacksonville (16): Living in Houston, the attitude surrounding the Texans is sobering. A promising start has been squandered, and now the team faces the very real danger of an extended slide towards a very high draft pick. This game is crucially important for the direction of the rest of the season for Houston. A loss here would suck any remaining life from the team and act like an anchor, dragging down the listless defense and inconsistent offense to the point where they might now win another game. I?m not exaggerating here; check their schedule and this is their easiest game until the finale when they host these same Jaguars. All their history suggests that the Texans will fold like a cheap, poorly constructed tent under that sort of pressure. Their defense is allowing unfathomable production every week, and the problems extend far beyond whipping-boy rookie CB Kareem Jackson. Coach Kubiak has an alarming tendency to overthink and try to outsmart the opponent when he has the offensive firepower to just let ?em go out and play. The Jaguars tend to play much better in divisional games (the MNF debacle against the Titans notwithstanding) and have proven that when David Garrard gets time, they have a very efficient, effective offense. Mario Williams remains M.I.A. and Brian Cushing is clearly not the same player after his steroid bust, which means the Texans lack any sort of impact defensive force. That?s just a terrible matchup for Houston, and I?m not sold that Matt Schaub & Co. can outscore teams anymore, not with Andre Johnson clearly hobbled and the rest of the WR corps regressing by the week. The Jaguars stay in the crowded AFC playoff race while sending the Texans? once-promising season down the drain. Jacksonville 28, Houston 24. Minnesota (21) at Chicago (20): I really like what I saw from the Vikings defensive line last week, using their depth to keep fresh and increase potency. Chicago continues to have major trouble protecting Jay Cutler, and I don?t see them being able to run the ball on Minnesota the way they did against the hapless Bills. The flip side is that I don?t think the Vikings OL can handle the Bears defense very well either. With Percy Harvin once again struggling with migraines, that potentially limits their best weapon to combat Chicago?s very strong linebackers. It took some serious Favre magic for the Vikings offense to pull off last week?s win, and I simply do not trust he can pull another rabbit out of his hat here. With the tenuous grasp Brad Childress has on his team, I worry that a slow start will be the final straw in the building mutiny. The pulse from the Vikings players is that they are in it for themselves, which is a tricky situation as far as predicting games is concerned. Would they really tank a game in order to get rid of Childress, or will they play inspired football in a prideful effort to save their season and beat a division rival they know they are superior to in the grand scheme of things? That?s a toughie, but I?m going to bet on professional pride here. Minnesota in a 20-17 squeaker. Tennessee (6) at Miami (17): Miami coach Tony Sparano has made the intriguing and difficult decision to switch QBs, going back to Chad Pennington in place of Chad Henne. No doubt Henne has struggled, but I find this decision fraught with disaster--and Tennessee?s defense is a big reason for that. Pennington excels at pinpoint accuracy and avoiding turnovers, neither of which are strong suits of Henne. But his lack of arm strength is a severe limiting factor for the offense that I think will cause just as many problems. Teams won?t commit safeties to help covering deep routes because the odds are slim that Pennington can get the ball to the receiver 30+ yards down the field without the corner being able to recover even if badly beaten. Taking that safety and putting him into the box to help even more against a somewhat lackluster rushing attack makes Ronnie Brown?s sledding even tougher. Teams are going to dare Pennington to beat them over the top. He might be the smartest guy in the room and on the field, but Pennington will have trouble finding holes and won?t have much of a run game to help him out. I suspect we?ll see the Dolphins move the ball pretty well between the 20s but struggle in the red zone. I get Sparano?s thinking that avoiding turnovers and stupid plays are worth the potential loss of potency, but the Titans are a bad opponent to audition that strategy. Their waves of variable pressure disrupt timing and precision, and you beat that by challenging them deep and taking risks. Pennington simply cannot do that anymore. I think this one will be very low scoring and could come down to one big play. Be it special teams or a missed tackle on Chris Johnson, I like Tennessee to make that big play. Coming off a bye, I expect Jeff Fisher to have a wrinkle or two that will catch the Dolphins off guard, and I like the fresh legs aspect as well. Tennessee wins on the road 17-10. Detroit (27) at Buffalo (31): The loss of Matthew Stafford to his latest shoulder injury is a devastating blow to the Lions, who have shown major improvement this season. Stafford was the difference between being pretty competitive and being able to win those games, but this injury has more long-term implications that greatly worry this long-time Lions fan. You have to wonder if Stafford will ever be durable enough to assume the role of franchise QB and long-term solution at a position of chronic lacking in Detroit. I suspect he?ll get one last shot next season, and I?m praying he can make it 16 games in 2011...assuming there is football in 2011. The Bills don?t care about Detroit?s problems, not when they still have a giant goose egg in the win column. They have been close several times but have not been able to get key stops or avoid the one crucial mistake that costs them games. They do not match up well with Detroit?s strengths even sans Stafford. The Lions defensive line is a major problem, as are Jahvid Best and Calvin Johnson--playmakers on offense. In my mind, that means this game falls upon the Detroit quarterback. If it was going to be Drew Stanton, I would have picked the Bills with no hesitation. But Shaun Hill will come back from his broken left arm and handle the reins, and even with the potential problems of taking snaps and handing off (which he did fine in practice on Wed.), I like Hill to be able to use the weapons at hand to keep the Bills winless. It won?t be easy though. Detroit 27, Buffalo 24. NY Jets (5) at Cleveland (18): So many subplots here make this game a surprising marquee matchup. The Ryan brothers on opposite sidelines, The Mangenius facing his old team, the braggadocio Jets against the understated Browns--it makes for a host of wonderful stories in what should be a pretty darn good game regardless. Cleveland has really found something with their power run game, and their O-line is good enough to make it work against the Jets. It is incumbent upon David Harris and the Jets safeties to not abandon their gaps and to read their keys properly, or else Peyton Hillis is poised to have another monster day. Hillis has quick feet and great balance for a power back, which means that tacklers must get the proper angle and leverage right away. The Jets will want to make Colt McCoy and the underwhelming Browns receivers (among them former Jet Chansi Stuckey) beat them. Because the Jets won?t respect the receivers to have any shot at beating Revis and Cromartie on the corners, expect a lot of blitzes, and not just on passing downs. I anticipate a lot of run dogs and edge crashing by the Jets defense, and I think that will slow down the Browns. Cleveland?s secondary has played much better recently but will still give up the occasional big play, and former Browns wideout Braylon Edwards has a nasty habit of haunting Cleveland. He?s typically good for only one great play per game, but in this one I think that might be enough. Jets 13, Browns 10. Cincinnati (22) at Indianapolis (7): Of all the intrigue that surrounded the Bengals in their tough Monday Night loss to Pittsburgh, one particular play stood out to me. That would be Mike Wallace?s touchdown from Antwan Randle El, where CB Leon Hall was in perfect position to make a play and just failed to do so. Hall is a talented player, but it was almost like he couldn?t believe Wallace would actually go get the ball. That sort of passivity has plagued the Bengals defense all year, and it?s a stark contrast to last year?s hyper-aggression that was so successful. Given Carson Palmer?s struggles when games actually mean something, that kind of defense just isn?t going to get the job done. It certainly won?t get the job done against the Colts, who continue to pile up points despite all sorts of injuries. The loss to Philly was tough, but this team knows how to bounce back. I think the home cooking and an intense week of practice will do them well. Colts 30, Bengals 21, but I would put good money on the score being 24-7 before the Bengals mount their rally. Carolina (30) at Tampa Bay (15): Carolina gets to choose between highly ineffective Jimmy Clausen and complete greenhorn Tony Pike at quarterback, sort of the worst of both rookie worlds. Their offense was pathetically inept with the somewhat competent Matt Moore running the show, and both feature RBs are also banged up and questionable at best. If ever there was a week for the Tampa defense to shine, it?s this one. Considering the Bucs seldom turn the ball over and have great confidence in winning close games, this one is as close to a lock as you?ll get in the NFL these days. Tampa Bay 20, Carolina 3. Kansas City (13) at Denver (29): This is a more dangerous game for the Chiefs than it might appear at first blush. Denver comes off a much-needed bye that gave Josh McDaniels and his staff time to do some critical self-scouting and make some needed tweaks. Getting Knowshon Moreno healthy helps diversify the offense, but where the rest will really come in handy is with the aged Broncos secondary. Kansas City still struggles to throw the ball with any sort of consistency, and they showed a lot of sloppy fundamentals in losing to the Raiders, a game which the officials tried hand over foot to hand to them. This is a big test for Todd Haley and his coaching staff, avoiding the letdown after a tough loss and doing so on the road against a rested divisional opponent that can throw the ball very well. I?m going to give Haley & Co. the benefit of the doubt on this one. Denver is just too poor at too many things to beat good teams, and the Chiefs are still a good team. I think. Kansas City 30, Denver 28. Dallas (32) at NY Giants (2): What a way for the Jason Garrett era to kick off! The Giants have been the best team in football over the last five weeks, whereas the Cowboys have been the worst and shown the least fight. Garrett and Jerry Jones learn the hard way that the in-season coaching change almost invariably proves the problems run much deeper than the deposed coach. Giants 37, Cowboys 17. St. Louis (23) at San Francisco (28): This is a huge game for the Rams, who now hold the pathetic NFC West division in their hands. They come off a bye week and face a resurgent Niners team that has growing confidence in their new QB, Troy Smith. St. Louis has generally done just enough to win against lesser teams and has not had the talent to hang one on the big boys yet. A win here would quell one division opponent while doing wonders in their own locker room. I get the sense from people on and around the team that Coach Spagnuolo is acutely aware of this and his team is buying into what he is selling here. I really do like Troy Smith?s opportunism to help out the scattershot San Francisco offense, but they have a lot more defensive issues than they like to admit. A rested Rams team and Steven Jackson should be able to take advantage. Rams in a close one, 23-20. Seattle (26) at Arizona (25): Two of the most inconstant, indecipherable teams square off in what might be the cloudiest game to forecast all season. Arizona?s offense is lousy, but they keep getting huge plays from their special teams and defense, which together have almost outscored their own offense. Seattle has no offensive line and their DL really misses Red Bryant. Even with Matt Hasselbeck returning, I give the edge to the Cardinals and their ability to create nontraditional points. Watch this one at your own peril! Cards 26, Seahawks 17. New England (4) at Pittsburgh (1): New England?s crushing loss to the Browns was eye opening in how undisciplined the Patriots defense played. Cleveland took full advantage of the lack of positional responsibility of the inside backers and the softness of the safeties. When the Patriots defense is playing well it slows like a gaggle of geese in flight, with lots of moving parts working in harmony to produce efficiency and potency. But in watching the Cleveland game, there was no form or cohesion to the defense; it was like watching a group of 8-year olds hyped up on too much cotton candy trying to corral a greased pig at the county fair. I suspect they will perform much better this week. I also suspect it won?t be good enough to beat the Steelers. Pittsburgh will miss Max Starks up front, but I really like the running style of Rashard Mendenhall against this chaotic, leaderless young New England defense. If the Cleveland defense could shut down the Patriots, the Steelers can absolutely do the same. Pittsburgh always plays better at home and typically ups the ante even further against the good teams. Despite all their recent success the Patriots are prone to these mid-season hiccups. Burp. Pittsburgh 27, New England 18. Philadelphia (10) at Washington (19): The overriding question here is whether or not Donovan McNabb received the message Mike Shanahan clumsily and obnoxiously sent him: get better prepared or off with your head. McNabb shouldn?t have trouble finding motivation to face his former team, but he?s always marched to a different drummer and it?s hard to syncopate his rhythm with the team. My humble prediction: this game will be decided by the end of the first quarter. If Philly can jump out to an early double-digit lead, McNabb mails it in and the Redskins are toast. But if the Skins can find some early success and Mike Vick struggles against the rested defense, the home crowd will rally behind McNabb and he?ll play his butt off. Hard to forecast which way it will happen, but the Eagles are the better team and are playing with great confidence after beating the Colts. I?ll stick with them, but don?t say you weren?t warned! Philly 24, Washington 17. Bye Week: San Diego (12), Oakland (14), Green Bay (11), New Orleans (8) Drinking in the Dorm Room Games Last Week: 3-2, stung by South Carolina purposely tanking to save themselves for Florida. Florida 27, South Carolina 23. Violate the laws of karma at your peril, Steve Spurrier! Arizona 20, USC 17 Utah 33, Notre Dame 20 Georgia Tech 26, Miami 24 Alabama 24, Mississippi State 21