Last Week: 7-6. Season: 66-53 Midseason Awards time! Offensive MVP: Peyton Manning edges Philip Rivers, Roddy White, and Chris Johnson Defensive MVP: Clay Matthews, nipping Ndamukong Suh, Osi Umenyiora, and James Harrison Most Improved player: Darren McFadden in a landslide over Jason Babin and Vontae Davis Coach of the Year: Raheem Morris, for getting a prickly collection to come together as one and believe in one another. Most Pleasant Surprise: Kansas City being 5-2 and doing so in perfectly legitimate fashion Biggest Disappointment: The Dallas Cowboys, currently holding the #2 pick in the 2011 draft Offensive Rookie: Steelers C Mike Pouncey beats out Bucs WR Mike Williams Defensive Rookie: Ndamukong Suh, the best rookie defensive player in a real long time. He just might be the best DT in the league after just seven games. Kansas City (9) at Oakland (14): This rivalry game actually means something for the first time in several years. The Chiefs can really seize the AFC West with a victory, while an Oakland win gives the Raiders a game in hand on every division rival and further legitimizes their fairly impressive start. The Chiefs are my pick for a plethora of reasons, none of which should be read as a sign of disrespect to the Raiders. Kansas City has won their last seven trips to Oakland, often with much worse teams than this year?s edition. I like the matchup of Romeo Crennel?s run defense against Darren McFadden, though I do suspect he will find some room running behind, and around, Robert Gallery and Jared Veldheer. Trusting the Raiders is a leap of faith I have yet to make, though I will jump if they prevail here. And then there?s the gambling angle: Oakland is favored in consecutive weeks for the first time since the final two games of the 2002 season. You might remember that as their Super Bowl season, but what you might not remember is that also marks the last time they beat the Chiefs at home. Last week was the first time the Raiders had covered as favorites in six years, and divisional underdogs have been great plays all season. Just too many arrows pointing the way of the Chiefs. Kansas City 28, Oakland 20. Arizona (24) at Minnesota (23): I see these two teams as remarkably similar. Both have had significant falloff at the quarterback position from last season, though only one of these teams made a change. Both struggle with turnovers and at getting 3rd down stops. Both defenses have underachieved for the talent on the rosters. Neither offensive line is playing very well either, though the Cards have at least flashed strength there at times. Both teams have also been terrible on the road, and that tilts the scales in favor of the Vikings. I like Jared Allen to have a breakout game against sitting-duck Derek Anderson and vulnerable LT Levi Brown. Adrian Peterson should have little trouble gashing a defense that LeGarrette Blount ran through and over for over 120 yards. The Vikings start the long uphill march towards the playoffs--still not out of the question--with a 30-17 win over the faltering Cardinals. New Orleans (7) at Carolina (31): Terrible time for the Panthers to get the Saints, as New Orleans comes off a huge confidence-builder and get-right game against the Steelers. They must guard against complacency on defense even though Panthers QB Matt Moore is nowhere close to the threat Big Ben was last week. Carolina always plays the Saints tough at home, and the Panthers defense is quietly having an excellent season. Too bad their offense is on pace to finish in the bottom 10 all-time in yards per play for a 16-game season. I like the Panthers to cover the 6.5 point spread, but the Saints triumph 20-16. New York Jets (6) at Detroit (22): From the hypothetical department: if the Jets team and the Lions team that each played last week show up here, the Lions run away with a huge upset. But I think New York?s dreary loss to the Packers had a lot to do with the windy conditions that robbed The Sanchize of both his confidence and accuracy. I also think the Jets OL will fare a lot better against Detroit?s awesome defensive front four than other recent opponents. On the flip side, I?m not sure the Lions line can continue to fare so well against a Jets defense that snuffs out the run like few teams can. That includes the Lions, who are still highly vulnerable behind Suh & Co. up front. I was impressed with Matt Stafford in his return, shaking off the early rust and purposefully feeding the ball to Calvin Johnson. But the Jets are better-suited to counter that, and Stafford has shown an alarming propensity to throw untimely INTs. A Lions win would not surprise me in the least, but the Jets are the safe pick. Jets 17-14. New England (1) at Cleveland (27): This year continues to prove my axiom that bye weeks are momentum killers for lesser teams coming off wins and/or strong performances. Cleveland stunned the Saints before their bye, but all that positive emotion and energy goes for naught. I do expect the Browns defense to once again play hard and create some problems for New England, but the converse is also true. I trust Tom Brady, Wes Welker, et al a hell of a lot more than I trust the Cleveland QB du jour (Colt McCoy? Seneca Wallace? Jake Delhomme?), Brian Robiskie, et al. This one qualifies as the survivor fantasy pick of the week, a tough week to choose one if you?ve used the Giants and Steelers already. Patriots 33, Browns 20. Miami (16) at Baltimore (3): Baltimore returns from their bye week hoping they have some answers for their porous pass defense. The numbers don?t look egregious, but in their last two games the Ravens couldn?t cover anyone and couldn?t tackle anyone once they caught the ball. Enter Brandon Marshall and the Dolphins, who have not lost on the road this year. That matchup certainly favors the visitors, and with the Ravens struggling to rush the passer, I like Jake Long and the beef up front to give Chad Henne time to exploit the holes. Davone Bess in the slot is the real problem for Baltimore?s defense, however; the Ravens have major problems stopping second-banana receivers, and Bess is a shifty, talented one. Miami does a much better job in covering wideouts, but Baltimore should have a lot of success throwing to Ray Rice out of the backfield. The Dolphins LBs don?t cover well and the safeties play too deep and too far inside to help out. I expect Baltimore to re-dedicate to the run and controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Joe Flacco does play action well, and the Miami safeties will bite. This figures to be a low-scoring affair where field position and turnovers play key roles. The turnover battle here is a wash (BAL is -2, MIA is -3), but the Dolphins are significantly better on special teams. Baltimore ranks in the bottom 5 in both punt and kick differential and 30th in average starting field position on drives not coming from turnovers. Miami is in the top 10 in all those categories. I love Miami to cover the +6 and I like them to somehow come up with another improbable road win. Dolphins 20, Ravens 17. Tampa Bay (13) at Atlanta (10): A lot of people are framing this game as a legitimacy test for the upstart Bucs, but I see it just as much as a validation landmark for the Falcons. Can they beat a good team at home? How do they come back from their bye week? Will they be able to withstand the deep aerial attack of a Tampa passing offense that is getting more confident and more precise all the time? Are the Falcons really deserving of being an 8.5 point favorite? I really like the vibe emanating from Mike Smith?s team coming out of their break. It?s a quietly confident group that needed a blow, both physically and mentally after a tough loss to Philly and a draining victory over the collapsing Bengals. Tampa?s woebegone pass rush means Matt Ryan will have time to survey the field and pick his spots to attack. The Bucs secondary is better at making plays on the ball than they are at actually covering anyone, and I think that makes Tony Gonzalez primed for a huge game. Tampa?s issues at safety mean they?ll either have to commit a LB to shadowing Gonzalez or else surrender an extra body in the box to slow down Michael Turner and Jason Snelling. Don?t forget about Roddy White, the NFC?s player of the month for October. That?s a bad matchup for Tampa, a team that has had major trouble stopping versatile offenses. Atlanta knows they must win this one to kick off a very tough 5-week schedule (TB, BAL, @STL, GB, @TB) that will almost certainly define their playoff destiny. Falcons 20, Bucs 10. San Diego (15) at Houston (19): Top 5 reasons I like the Chargers: 1. This Texans team has the demeanor of a hard-luck loser. They?ve needed near-miracle finishes to beat the Chiefs and Raiders and got soundly thumped by the Colts and Giants. The players are acutely sensitive to the fact they?re just not as good as the fans want them to be. 2. San Diego really impressed me with how they took care of business against Tennessee last week. They?ve seen this slow-starting movie before and they are confident in the happy ending. Tangental film critic time: Am I the only person who finds Clint Eastwood movies ungodly boring and unbearably slow and quiet? Other than i>Million Dollar Baby, I have never been able to sit through any film he?s directed from start to finish without nodding off or giving up. I have not seen Gran Torino yet and have little desire to do so because so many other of his critically lauded directorial works have been bitterly disappointing snoozefests. 3. Houston?s defense cannot stop anyone. Philip Rivers is on pace for the most prolific passing yardage season in NFL history. Consider that Houston is coming off their clear best defensive effort of the season, a game where they gave up 30 points and 5 yards per carry to the Colts. Irresistible force meets highly movable object. 4. Texans coach Gary Kubiak. With QB Matt Schaub having his worst outing and RB Arian Foster gashing the Colts, Kubiak decides to ride Schaub heavily and keep the ball out of Foster?s hands. He?s consistently tried that against-the-grain line of thinking and attack and it has seldom worked. It won?t work here either, and that could cost him his job a whole lot quicker than you (or he) might think. 5. Houston has the #1 ranked red zone offense and the 32nd ranked red zone defense. The key here is that in the last 4 weeks the offense has just 8 red zone possessions and the defense has surrendered 14 of them. They simply cannot keep up, no matter how efficient they are on offense. San Diego is in the upper-middle of the pack both offensively (10th) and defensively (13th) over the last month. Stability trumps volatility. San Diego 39, Houston 28. Chicago (25) vs. Buffalo (32) at Toronto. I could make several arguments either way here, but the overriding thought in my mind here is this: the winless Bills are playing too hard and too well to keep losing every game, and the Bears are the perfect sort of opponent to break through against--lots of turnovers, no OL, vulnerable secondary. The Toronto crowd should be more raucous and help out too, even though the Bills are winless there too. Buffalo 27, Chicago 20. New York Giants (5) at Seattle (21): Gross mismatch of the week: New York?s very strong, deep defensive front against a Seahawks patchwork OL that Oakland annihilated a week ago. With Matt Hasselbeck out and Charlie Whitehurst making his first career start, expect the rested Giants to attack early and often. Seattle?s weak running game won?t command respect, and the 3-safety look the Giants continue to deploy is a tough read for QBs and WRs under duress. The Giants haven?t won in Seattle in a long time, and Qwest Field remains one of the best home field advantages in all of sports, but I really like how the G-Men match up here. Giants roll 33-10. Indianapolis (4) at Philadelphia (12): This game marks Peyton Manning?s 200th consecutive start, a feat that is more remarkable to me than Brett Favre?s streak (292 and counting) for a couple of reasons. First, Manning started his very first game as a rookie and as the #1 overall draft pick. There?s an inherent pressure that comes along with that, not to mention it also means he got his start on a terrible team. Secondly, Favre has always had great athleticism and mobility as a QB, whereas Manning just might be the most unathletic-looking NFL player that isn?t a lineman. He hasn?t exactly had a very good offensive line for most of his career either, so you would think that Manning?s relatively stationary target would take a pounding. It?s a real testament to Manning?s incredible acumen at reading coverages and quick release. Philly can?t seem to commit to any QB to start more than three games in a row, and the carousel has spun back to Michael Vick for this tilt. His mobility should help keep Freeney and Mathis from pinning their ears back and getting upfield so quickly, but one thing that people always seem to forget about Vick is that he?s one of the most sacked QBs in NFL history. He?s sort of the anti-Manning, holding the ball too long and having a generally poor sense of the rush. He?s also had his struggles with Cover-2 schemes, losing track of LBs and waiting too long to hit the short throws in the gaps. I like how Indy is using Mike Hart, and getting more balance into their offense will only help Manning even further. This one has the trappings of a shootout, and I?ll take Manning, thank you very much. Colts 37, Eagles 31. Dallas (30) at Green Bay (8): The towel has been thrown onto the field in Dallas, which looked listless and highly predictable in their devastating, humbling loss to the Jaguars. Green Bay is a bad matchup even if the Cowboys were at full strength and playing at the top of their collective game, and now neither is the case. This one could get ugly. Packers 30, Cowboys 14. Pittsburgh (2) at Cincinnati (26): The Bengals are very near a tipping point, one that will approach all-out anarchy with another ugly loss. There is a distinct vibe of offense vs. defense developing, with both sides pointing fingers instead of looking in mirrors and making necessary changes. Cincy?s pass defense and passing offense have both been major disappointments, with Carson Palmer posting huge numbers in garbage time and largely awful results when games are still to be decided. Nobody does revenge games better than the Steelers, who lost here a year ago and figure to come out pissing vinegar after losing in New Orleans last week. I love the combination of Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace in prime time. Probably not as much as Jon Gruden does and will incessantly beat you over the head with some 188 times during the MNF telecast, but it?s still a great fantasy play for those of you in weekly salary cap games. Steelers cruise 31-21 in a game that should convince any remaining holdouts that Cincy?s biggest problem is at QB. Bye Weeks: Denver (29), St. Louis (18), Tennessee (11), Washington (17), San Francisco (28), Jacksonville (20) Drinking in the Dorm Room games: Last week: 4-1. Again. Alabama 20, LSU 17 in a game I will be in attendance with at least 15 NFL scouts. Stanford 30, Arizona 28, keeping the Cardinal in the BCS at-large picture. Oklahoma State 36, Baylor 30 in a game that almost certainly decides the Big 12 South. Bet you never thought you?d read that statement about this game! TCU 24, Utah 20. BCS elimination game and probably the best game of the season thus far. South Carolina 32, Arkansas 27 in a coin-flipper.