This week brings about Halloween, and it also brings about something scary in the NFL. Every single home team is favored by the odds makers (the Lions are even with visiting Washington). What makes that scary? Road underdogs are covering at a near-record pace this year, but what is truly frightening is that they are winning games straight up, not just covering the spread. Oakland, Cleveland, Washington and the Giants all won last week as road dogs. Only one other time have at least four road underdogs won straight up in the last 12 years. I would bet good money that happens once again. Last Week: 8-6, pushing the season tally to 59-47. Pittsburgh (1) at New Orleans (10): After seeing what Cleveland?s defense did to New Orleans a week ago, I really wonder if the Saints can self-scout well enough to fix all their problems. It only gets more difficult against the Steelers defense, which can bring the same sorts of schematic hell but does so with better players. Even if Reggie Bush comes back, I don?t like the matchup for the New Orleans offense, what with the tackles struggling and Drew Brees clearly looking out of synch. No team handles their business on road trips better than the Steelers, who won?t be wowed by playing the defending champs; they?ll be angry and focused. Bad combination for New Orleans. I think this one could be a real defensive slugfest, with one of Ben Roethlisberger?s patented improv plays being the difference. Pittsburgh 20, New Orleans 16. Houston (12) at Indianapolis (8): Five reasons why I really like the Colts: 1. Houston always struggles coming off a bye. 2. Indy is looking for payback after the Week 1 humbling in Houston. 3. The Colts have an uncanny ability to show that they can thrive without inured key parts, and they often do it in the first week after the big loss. This time it?s Dallas Clark, and you can put down Manning for 350+ yards and 3+ TDs in black ink just to spite the wisdom that he?ll struggle without his great TE. 4. The Texans will absolutely miss Demeco Ryans. Moving Brian Cushing to the middle will help the run defense, but now they have no playmakers outside the A gaps. Mario Williams? balky shoulder and iffy motor have robbed him of that status--he has the same amount of tackles as K Neil Rackers in their last two games. 5. It?s Monday Night in Indy, where the most knowledgeable fans in the game respect the spotlight and always provide the right amount of both spark and enmity. Colts roll, 36-28. Green Bay (13) at NY Jets (2): Hats off to the Packers for finally pulling out a close victory. What makes it even more special is that it was the injury-ravaged defense that was responsible for holding on. They bent mightily but didn?t break. I have a feeling they?ll have to stiffen up even more if they want to beat the Jets, because New York is rested and hungry to add another prominent offensive pelt to their locker room wall. This game will likely come down to how well Green Bay?s offensive line handles the Jets defensive front. That New York D isn?t as dominant as advertised or hyped, but they do make plays--the Jets lead the league at +10 in turnover margin. Aaron Rodgers continues to throw INTs (9 now) and the New York pass rushers figure to have a lot fresher legs than Jared Allen & Co. brought last week. Few teams handle multiple wideout sets better than the Jets. I also like New York?s more balanced offense, though I do think Green Bay can force The Sanchize into a couple of turnovers of his own. It?s asking a lot for the Packers to turn around from a Monday night road game to facing such a talented team on the road in an early Sunday game. Jets 24, Packers 21. Tennessee (3) at San Diego (22): I am stunned that the Chargers are favored over the Titans in this one. Tennessee is playing championship-level football in all phases, while the Chargers keep losing games in increasingly egregious fashion. Antonio Gates is still not healthy, and WR Malcolm Floyd and K Nate Kaeding won?t play, which inhibits the scoring chances against a defense that is as quick and confident as any group in the league. The Chargers struggle to run and often forget that it?s actually legal to hand the ball off once they fall behind. As frequent emailer Jason Van Damme succinctly summed up San Diego, ?They play like when your (sic) at a bar have to pee so bad that you don?t want to take the time to unzip first. Then you fumble with the zipper and can?t stop the piss and now you need new pants and an escape plan.? Well said, my friend. I would say that it scares me that the bookies have the Bolts as a favorite here, but they?ve been underestimating TEN all year and I?m losing faith in San Diego?s ability to right the ship with every passing quarter. Titans 27, Chargers 20. Washington (14) at Detroit (28): Lost in The Deangelo Hall show in Chicago last week is just how dreadfully the Washington offense performed. Now they have to face a recharged Lions defense that has progressively improved as the year has played on. The front four in Detroit have been dominating more oft than not, and Denver discard Al Smith has looked like the 1st rounder the Broncos never saw since his arrival. The linebackers, well...That is reason for hope for the visiting Skins, who have done a god job crashing out yards but not always cashing in with scores. I just really like the Detroit defense at home coming off a bye, and the return of Matt Stafford and a healthier Jahvid Best should give the Lions enough spring to outscore Washington. I also like that the line opened at even and is now Lions -1.5, the most money swung Detroit?s way since the GM bailout. Trust the money. Detroit 23, Washington 21. Denver (29) vs. San Francisco (31) in London: I?m a firm believer that if an NFL lockout happens, London is going to get an NFL team. As a recent Wall Street Journal article outlined, NFL teams are set to lose upwards of $500M just in the preseason if a lockout goes down. That means some owners are going to be forced to sell to keep the franchises afloat, and contraction doesn?t appear to be an option. New owners will come from new places, and those owners will do whatever they can to maximize their billion-dollar investment. The growth market in the US is pretty much tapped out, and simple contemporary economics dictates that overseas markets are the new black for giant American companies like the NFL. It might make no sense logistically to put a team in London, and it might strike you as sacrilegious to move a team from an entrenched football community to a place where ?football? involves short, skinny guys kicking a ball back and forth that act like their legs fell off when lightly touched and a 2-1 game is a rare offensive explosion. It makes little sense to me either, but this does make sense: there are 8 million people in London, a high percentage of which are intrigued by our quaint little game and will shell out big-time cash to buy merchandise and PSLs and broadcasting rights. Where in America other than Los Angeles (which will absolutely get a team too) or Las Vegas (which will NEVER get an NFL team) can a new owner cash in like that? This just might be the worst possible matchup to present to new potential customers. The Niners are a mistake-ravaged mess with QB (say hello to Troy Smith!), coaching, and defensive issues...and they?re the favorite! Denver cannot run the ball, cannot stop the run, and is terrible in both red zones. To me, this game comes down to how badly the 49ers players want to keep Mike Singletary as their coach. Despite what ownership is saying, it would surprise nobody if Iron Mike gets axed if the Niners drop to 1-7 heading into their bye week. My interactions with Niners players and team sources tell me he?s a dead man walking if that is indeed the case, because the players I?ve communicated with are clearly tired of him. Denver 33, San Francisco 28...but the score is highly dependent upon the tricky fall London weather. Buffalo (32) at Kansas City (11): The Bills are the only remaining winless team, which begs the question ?When will they win a game?? It?s not likely to come in KC against the upstart Chiefs, but you cannot blame Ryan Fitzpatrick. If you would have told me a month ago when the journeyman took over that he would have the NFL?s best QB rating for any four-week period, I?d have told you to ease off the bong. But Fitzpatrick has shown real testicular fortitude, and he?s got great chemistry with young wideout Stevie Johnson. Scoring is not the problem for the Bills; it?s their porous defense. No team gives up more running yardage and also ranks dead last by allowing 33 points per game. Considering the Chiefs highly effective rookie weapons in TE Tony Moeaki and WR Dexter McCluster, that figure probably won?t diminish here. The Bills have struggled all year covering tight ends and slot receivers. Good week to use any Chief in fantasy football. Kansas City 35, Buffalo 24. Jacksonville (26) at Dallas (27): Jacksonville gets David Garrard back at QB, while Dallas begins the Jon Kitna era following Tony Romo?s broken collarbone. Ah yes, the broken collarbone. I broke mine the summer before my senior year of high school and it hurt like no pain this side of my jackass dentist ?accidentally? cutting my gum wide open while extracting my immature wisdom teeth. It sent a gush of blood at least 6 inches high out of my mouth and made me shun dentists for over a decade. I was listening to the Scorpions ?Blackout? when that happened and I cannot hear that song today without reflexively cringing--and not just for Klaus Meine?s regrettable screaming at the end of the song. My first visit back to a dentist was some 14 years later and I?m proud to say I had zero cavities and minimal gum issues, though the hygienist did ask me if I ever tried to eat a soup can lid. Sorry for the tangent on why I believe most basic dentistry is a scam...I agree with Roy Williams that Kitna will be just as good, if not better than Romo for what Dallas needs right now. He?s a feisty, gutsy leader that knows how to rally the troops. He?s also been an exceptional red zone QB throughout his career. Against the Jags? sorry excuse for a pass defense, he just might have the kind of game that makes Cowboys fans wonder why he hasn?t been playing ahead of Romo. Hold that thought for his 3 INT, 35% completion abomination two weeks from now, Dallas. Cowboys 31, Jaguars 14. Miami (19) at Cincinnati (20):Loyal reader JC from BC wrote to me this week, asking me why I have been much better at picking college games than pro games this year. After sending him what I felt was an honest, thoughtful response, I thought even further about it. Am I overthinking the matchups that severely? Do I pay too much attention to momentum, or not enough? Am I trying too hard to find the signature upset? Should I drink more beer while making my picks? From all that, I came to a conclusion. In games that are essentially coin-flippers like this one, don?t hurry it and don?t overanalyze it. So I stepped away from this one (this is the last game forecast I wrote) and waited for the score to come to me. Lo and behold, I found my pick while extricating my bacon-wrapped jalapenos from the over for dinner Thursday night. Miami 27, Cincinnati 24, and don?t skimp on the cream cheese if you ever make that dish. Carolina (30) at St. Louis (18): I hope you enjoyed last week, Panthers fans, because you?re not likely to catch another opponent in absolute freefall like the Niners. The Rams dropped a heartbreaker a week ago, and I expect them to come out angry. Matt Moore offers some hope, but until stud RT Jeff Otah enters the lineup (he?s still out), the run offense just isn?t good enough to help much. Rams lay down a 30-7 beating on the Panthers. Minnesota (23) at New England (4): All the fingers in Minnesota are pointing at Brett Favre?s play, but I?ll actually defend Favre a little on this one. There is something missing from the Minnesota defense this year, and it?s enough of something that the offense cannot overcome it on its own. Six sacks in six games is an unacceptable output for a team with a premier talent like Jared Allen. Maybe he should have kept the mullet. Teams are shutting him down and his teammates are not picking up the slack, and the Williams Wall is looking like it?s made from mud and not brick and mortar like it has been in recent seasons. But the big story is obviously Favre and his broken ankle. He?s got both a stress fracture and an avuncular fracture in his right ankle. An avuncular fracture is where the ligament has yanked a piece of the bone off. Regardless of his pain threshold (which is amazing considering his youthful addiction to pain killers), consider the simple mechanics of throwing the ball and moving. He won?t be able to plant his drop foot with any sort of force, which means the ball will tend to sail high. Remember those throws at the end of the Packers game? Lateral movement just isn?t going to happen, which leaves Favre vulnerable to the pass rush. Think Bill Belichick doesn?t know that and won?t devise schemes that will make Favre have to move around? Is Tarvaris Jackson really that bad? Still, it?s not hopeless for the Vikings. They do have Adrian Peterson, still an elite running back, and a strong run-blocking line. The defense can amp up the intensity and get back to winning games like they did a year ago, with an oft-dominant front four and three very active linebackers. It won?t be easy on the road against the Patriots and Tom Brady, who does a great job of finding the mismatch in coverage and continuing to beat defenses over the head with their own inadequacies. But the Vikings absolutely can win. Do I think they will? Not with a 41-year old grandfather with a broken ankle playing QB. Patriots win 27-13, but shave a TD off New England?s total if Favre doesn?t play. Yes folks, he?s worth 7 extra points for the other team at this point. Seattle (15) at Oakland (21): The Raiders come off a game where they set an unofficial NFL record. In thumping the Broncos in Denver 59-14, Oakland established the mark for biggest margin of victory by an underdog. Now they must do something that has been incredibly elusive: win a game they are supposed to at home. When I look at the matchups, I like the Raiders ever so slightly, but these are two of the most schizophrenic teams in the league. The most consistent item here is Seattle?s defense. I like Darren McFadden?s resurgence and the speed of the Raiders defense, but I like what Pete Carroll is getting out of his defensive line and rookie safety Earl Thomas to have a big day. This has all the trappings of a game that drives fans in the Black Hole crazy, a game Oakland just inexplicably gives away to a team they should handle. Seattle 26, Oakland 17. Tampa Bay (17) at Arizona (16): For no apparent rhyme or reason, Arizona plays exceptionally well at home but stinks up the joint on the road. Their defensive intensity finds a different level and the offensive line plays with better cohesion and more confidence. But the biggest reason why I like the Cardinals here is Tampa?s pass rush, or rather the lack thereof. Opposing QBs have been able to get real comfortable surveying the field and stepping into a strong pocket, enough so that I like the chances of rookie Max Hall coming back and having another decent outing. Larry Fitzgerald is overdue, fantasy geeks, and when he goes off he can do it like few others. Cardinals 19, Bucs 12. Bye Week: Atlanta (7), Baltimore (6), Chicago (25), Cleveland (24), Philadelphia (9), NY Giants (5) Drinking in the Dorm Room games Last week: 4-2, the only week I?ve been worse than 4-1 all season. Iowa 30, Michigan State 29. Still not buying Sparty going undefeated. Florida 26, Georgia 24. Worst ?Cocktail Party? game in eons. Nebraska 28, Missouri 26. Blackshirts are tough at home. USC 37, Oregon 31. #1--in some polls--goes down yet again. Oklahoma State 40, Kansas State 30. Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com