I?m thoroughly enjoying the extended summer, a nice side benefit of moving from Michigan to Houston. Highs in the mid 80s, lows in the upper 50s every day is perfect weather! I will miss the fall foliage, but sitting out in the sun under the palm tree in my side yard makes up for scraping frost off my windshield every morning. Last Week: 9-7, making the season tally 42-36. Baltimore (1) at New England (7): Normally, I find Colin Cowherd to be an unctuous blowhard with an oft-unlistenable program, but I think he?s dead on the money regarding the Patriots. As Cowherd points out, Bill Belichick often wins the first half based on game planning and strategy, but the Pats struggle later in games because they just don?t have the horses to compete with other good teams. And I think that?s how this one plays out--New England hangs right with the mighty Ravens through about the middle of the third quarter, and then the Ravens? superior depth, defensive pressure, and physical running game takes over. I was impressed with how Ray Rice came back last week for Baltimore, and his home-run ability at RB is precisely the kind of weapon that the Pats undermanned defense simply cannot handle. On a personal level, I?m very much looking forward to seeing Vince Wilfork and Haloti Ngata man the middle. I love watching dominant defensive linemen ply their trades, and these two are both elite talents. Regarding Randy Moss: I honestly don?t think the Pats will miss him on the field...much. Brandon Tate has the same sort of field-stretching speed, and bringing back Deion Branch probably makes the intermediate routes a better bet. Where they will miss Moss is on those plays where he flashes why he?s in the conversation as the greatest receiver ever. You know these--the corner route where he outleaps two defenders and cruises for a TD without breaking stride, the one-handed stabs, the quick slant where he channels his inner gazelle and races around and past the defense for a long score. And New England isn?t quite good enough to beat a very well-rounded Baltimore team without that sort of dynamic playmaker. Ravens 26, Patriots 21. Kansas City (10) at Houston (14): This one is a toughie, and the general weirdness of the series history doesn?t help matters. The teams have played four times and are 2-2, but the home team has never won and the team with the better turnover ratio entering those games is an aggregate -11...and still managed to win one. Considering Houston?s home issues (they got spanked by DAL and NYG in their last two homers) and how well KC played in Indy last weekend, that road warrior trend seems likely to continue. Yet I like the Texans, not just because I live in Houston. Mario Williams is the key here. In their two losses he has registered exactly 3 tackles and 2 QB hurries. Houston cannot win with Super Mario under an invisibility spell from the evil Pooka, and he tends to reemerge with a flourish. Arian Foster also was MIA last week, but the Chiefs front isn?t what the Giants bring and I expect the Houston OL to play better. I also expect more from the Houston defense, more specifically Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans. I don?t trust Matt Cassel to be able to torch the beleaguered Texans secondary the way Romo, Manning, & McNabb have done either. Gut check time, and I like to believe that Houston has the testicular fortitude to pull it off. Houston 24, Kansas City 20. Miami (16) at Green Bay (18): What?s left of the Packers? Eight Week 1 starters are out for this one, six of them for the rest of the season. It?s the two that will return at some point, QB Aaron Rodgers and LB Clay Matthews, that they will miss the most; few teams can compete while missing their best players on both sides of the ball. With all the ancillary injuries here, it?s tough to know who the Packers are or how they will play. It?s such an unknown that Vegas won?t even publish a line. Just given the players that are left for GB, it?s real hard to see them hanging with a rested Miami team that has decent offensive weapons and a solid secondary. I like Matt Flynn as the fill-in QB and I don?t discount the fact the Dolphins might be rusty and overconfident despite being on the road in a hostile environment. But Miami is the safe pick here, just not safe enough to use them as your survivor fantasy pick. Miami 27, Green Bay 17. Atlanta (4) at Philadelphia (11): Is there any team more under the radar than the NFC-leading Falcons? There might not be a more fundamentally sound team in the league, and Matt Ryan is quietly a legit MVP candidate. So why is my mind screaming ?Eagles?? Maybe it?s the barrage of defensive playmakers they have. It could be the acquisition of Jerome Harrison, who is perfect for what they need from their backup RB. Perhaps it?s the Philly Cheese Steak kolache I had for breakfast that is slowly killing my pancreas. I really can?t pinpoint it, but my overwhelming gut instinct is for the Eagles in this one. Now where did my wife put the Pepto? Philly 21, Atlanta 20. Tennessee (8) at Jacksonville (19): Monday Night Football heads to northern Florida, a rare prime time gig for the host Jaguars. The matchups heavily favor the Titans, who are great in both Red Zones (2nd on offense, 1st on defense) and on first down (5th on offense, 9th on defense in 1st down yardage). The Jaguars have given up more yards than any other team, the function of the worst safety play by a wide margin. Tennessee also brings a deep stable of pass rushers, most notably a resurgent Jason Babin. David Garrard has been almost perfect when given time, but he?s not likely to get a lot of that from these Titans. Chris Johnson doesn?t get a lot of prime time chances to show off his awesomeness, and I?d put good money on him turning out a great performance. Tennessee rolls 33-13. New Orleans (15) at Tampa Bay (12): There is great temptation to read more into this contest than is really here. New Orleans is walking wounded and not the same team that won the Super Bowl, but the bulk of their injury issues are short-term. Tampa Bay has been very fortunate in the injury department, as the only Week 1 starter that hasn?t played every game is suspended safety Tanard Jackson. These Bucs are a very young team that is building confidence, and Josh Freeman is getting a reputation for making the big throws in clutch situations. That sideline laser to Micheal Spurlock late in last week?s game is the stuff of Manning or Favre, and young Freeman is clearly getting more comfortable at diagnosing blitzes and handling the rush. This is the perfect time for Tampa to catch this Saints team, especially in the friendly confines of Raymond James Stadium. Bucs 23, Saints 20. NY Jets (2) at Denver (24): This one is making a lot of survivor fantasy contests, but be careful in underestimating the Broncos and overestimating the Jets. If Denver wasn?t so banged up on defense I?d probably make them the outright pick, but between all the injuries and their utter ineptness at running the ball I can?t rightly pick them. Having said that, the Jets defense didn?t look good in the second half against the Vikings. I also think the New York offense is overdue to commit a turnover or three, but the Broncos just aren?t the type of D to force that issue. I think Sanchez and the Jets offense will pull off just enough big plays to hang on, but this won?t be easy. Brandon Lloyd and Kyle Orton will test the vaunted Jets secondary, but without a complementary run game there will be too many short possessions. That favors the Jets? strong OL wearing on a depleted Denver D. This is my Survivor Fantasy Pick of the week. Jets 28, Broncos 24. Dallas (22) at Minnesota (21): Sports talk shows have devoted days to what ails these two early-season disappointments, and the loser of this one is likely out of the playoff picture in a very ordinary NFC. The bottom line is which team is more likely to bring its ?A? game. I favor the Vikings in that regard for a couple of reasons. First, the only time Dallas has really played well was in Houston, where the Texans sat in simple zone coverage and got zero pass rush, and DeMarcus Ware got to face a tackle making his first career start. Minnesota has put together stretches in almost every game where you can see why they were a Super Bowl pick for a lot of people. Favre?s elbow issues are troublesome, but so is the way Dallas? secondary played last week. I also think the Vikings are very good at feeding off the home support, and the noise will wreak havoc with the questionable Dallas OL. It all adds up to Minnesota staying in the picture and Dallas looking up at every other team in the NFC except the 49ers and Panthers. Let that statement sink in for a minute...Vikings 33, Cowboys 24. Indianapolis (5) at Washington (13): This isn?t the most glamorous game on the docket, but for my money this is probably the best watch of the weekend. Washington?s defense is a bit deceptive; they give up yardage by the bushel but they?re pretty good in the red zone and typically play better as the game goes along (the Texans beg to differ). I like how they mixed up the attack against the pass-happy Packers last week, and that gives them good preparation for playing Peyton Manning and the Colts. I also like McNabb to handle the edge pressure from Freeney & Mathis and exploit the injury-ravaged Colts secondary. Washington has been a home underdog twice this year and won outright both times, and the Colts are 0-2 straight up as road favorites. I like those trends to continue. Ethnic Slurs 27, Colts 21. Oakland (25) at San Francisco (30): Most everyone points the finger squarely at Alex Smith for the 49ers woes, but he?s not the one giving up 130 points in 5 games. There are more fish to fry than just the biggest one in the net. I finally came up with a great analogy for Mike Singletary?s coaching style! On The Simpsons in the episode where Homer starts working out to climb Mt. Springfield, he is mentored by Rainier Wolfcastle. The action movie star does little except load him up with Powersauce bars and shout encouraging slogans at him. That pretty much sums up Singletary?s philosophy: it?s on you to improve yourself, don?t expect anything from me other than regurgitating impassioned motivational speeches you?ve already heard 20 times this month. As for the game, I know the Raiders are upset about being underdogs to a winless team. They are confident after beating the Chargers last week and the ?world is against us? card plays well in their locker room. But I worry that they will press too hard in order to avoid losing to a winless team and blowing their chance to dominate the Bay Area football scene. Every time I think Oakland is ready to turn the corner to respectability, they screw the pooch. The Niners are due even with Iron Mike?s inept coaching and their propensity for making stupid mistakes at the worst possible time, be it Frank Gore fumbles or blown blocks or safeties falling down. I suspect the bookies are onto something here in favoring the home team by 3. If they control mistakes, San Fran is the better team, and I think they respond here. Niners 27, Raiders 24. Cleveland (29) at Pittsburgh (3): Welcome to the NFL, Colt McCoy! The rookie gets his first game action in Pittsburgh of all places. Before you bet your mortgage payment on the Steelers, which apparently many people are doing as the line has moved from 11 to 14 in 36 hours, keep this in mind: Three years ago, Derek Anderson replaced an overwhelmed Charlie Frye and held serve the rest of the game, his first real extended action. There is zero pressure on McCoy to do anything other than stay alive, and I think he?ll surprise a little. I also wonder just how much the Pittsburgh offense will accomplish adjusting to Big Ben?s return against an underrated Browns defense. The Browns are a deceptive 1-4, as three of their four losses have come largely as the result of the other team scoring defensive TDs. As long as McCoy doesn?t throw more than one INT, I think the Browns can probably cover the increasing spread. An outright win is about as likely as Arizona beating New Orleans with a rookie QB. Oh, wait...Steelers 20, Browns 10. Seattle (27) at Chicago (6): There are a number of reasons to like Chicago here. Getting QB Jay Cutler back is probably the most obvious, though they won last week without him. My main reason for going heavy on the Bears here is the Chicago defense against the Seattle offense. Lance Briggs, Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher, and the rest of the Monsters of the Midway are flying all over the field, making plays on the ball and finishing their hits. Seattle has been awful on the road, and I don?t expect Marshawn Lynch to do much in his Seahawks debut. He just might break the 9-game drought of Seattle RBs scoring a TD, but I suspect it will come in garbage time. The Chicago defensive front seven against the Seattle OL and TEs/RBs is one of the biggest mismatches on paper that anyone could write in the NFL these days. Bears 30, Seahawks 12. San Diego (17) at St. Louis (28): A lot of sports writers like to pre-write their columns in order to beat deadlines and lay out thoughts ahead of time. I bet the Chargers beat writers already have their Monday morning headline, ?Bolts get Rammed by mistakes once again?. San Diego keeps finding ways to lose, and even Philip Rivers at his best can?t overcome the ridiculously egregious special teams play or in absentia pass coverage. The Rams got trounced by a much more physical Detroit team last week, and I think a return home and a harsh reality check are just the jolt they need to move forward positively. The Chargers should win--they?re favored by 8.5 on the road after all--but it?s hard to remember a team better at beating itself than this San Diego unit. Rivers? caustic personality doesn?t help matters for a team that very badly needs a calming but forceful veteran presence to change the climate. Take the points and run with this one, and take the Rams to win outright if you?re really bold. I?m not feeling quite so emboldened, not after my 5-year-old son whipped me at Wii bowling. Again. San Diego 28, St. Louis 27. Detroit (26) at NY Giants (9): For my money, these two teams feature the best defensive lines in the NFL. The difference is that I have greater trust in the Giants to be able to run the ball and to stick to trying it. I also like the Giants passing offense a little better top to bottom. Detroit can absolutely win if they do two things: force turnovers and keep the chains moving. They lead the league in forcing turnovers, and Eli will oblige when under heavy pressure, but I can?t see the Lions breaking off a lot of 10-play, 77-yard drives and converting all those into TDs and not FGs. If the game was in Detroit I?d probably pick the Lions, but considering the epic road losing streak I just don?t see it. That streak is overdue to end, but unless the Giants self-destruct (which few teams do better!) it?s not today. Giants 20, Lions 17. Bye Weeks: Cincinnati (20), Arizona (23), Carolina (32), Buffalo (31) Drinking in the Dorm Room games I went 4-1 once again, which I?ve done every week now this season. The trick for y?all is to ascertain which game I?m going to miss! Wisconsin 20, Ohio State 13. Sorry Dad! Auburn 26, Arkansas 24 Nebraska 33, Texas 17 Iowa 40, Michigan 31 Washington 29, Oregon State 28 Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com