Last Week: 11-5, pushing the season forecast to 26-22. Baltimore (9) at Pittsburgh (1): I bet most everyone penciled in this one as a Ravens romp when the news that Ben Roethlisberger was suspended. No way the Steelers could crack the mighty Baltimore defense without their franchise QB, right...not so fast my friends! Fourth string QB Charlie Batch is playing like his Detroit heyday (tangent: why did the Lions give up on him so quickly while complete wastes like Drew Stanton and Joey Harrington have lasted years when they obviously have no NFL ability?!?), making quick, smart decisions with the football and avoiding turnovers. But the more pleasant surprise, and the one more pertinent to this matchup, is the improvement of the Pittsburgh offensive line. The addition of Maurkice Pouncey has shored up the middle, and OC Bruce Arians has schemed to the strengths of his tackles. A healthy Rashard Mendenhall is finding huge running lanes in the B gaps, and the cutback lanes are usually open as well. If you watched the Ravens hard-fought win against Cleveland last week, you know that runs to the B gap are a serious problem for Baltimore?s defense. Peyton Hillis continually gashed that option for over 140 yards, showing just how much the Ravens miss Ed Reed filling against the run and how undisciplined the OLBs are at crashing inside to help. Cedric Benson found similar if not more sporadic success, and I suspect Mendenhall will as well. With starting RB Ray Rice slowed (if he even plays), the Ravens will need another superlative outing from Joe Flacco to win this game. But that?s asking a lot for a guy who has struggled in his three prior trips to Blitzburgh. His career line in Heinz Field, including playoffs: 42 of 86 for 499 yards, 3 TDs, 4 INTs, 13 sacks, 5 fumbles, and 3 losses. In fact, Baltimore has lost all three of those meetings by scores of 23-20, 23-20, and 23-14. Notice a pattern there? I just can?t see Baltimore scoring more than 23 points against this Pittsburgh defense, certainly not without Ray Rice. Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 17. New England (13) at Miami (11): All of the sudden this game goes from being AFC East leadership showdown to trying to keep pace with the Jets and keep a leg up in the Wild Card race. I have grave concerns regarding New England?s defense, which simply isn?t very talented and lacks any sort of depth. The big mismatch is Brandon Marshall against rookie Devin McCourty, who has become the Pats #1 CB by attrition and default. In their last meeting last year Chad Henne threw the ball over 50 times with good success (Miami won 22-21), and that New England D was a lot better than this one. It?s hard to point a finger at Bill Belichick?s defensive acumen, but he simply doesn?t have the horses to stop teams that can both run and pass like Miami. That means a shootout is likely. The Jets found a lot of success attacking behind the blitzing Miami backers, and you?d better believe Tom Brady is going to recognize the weak spots even better than Mark Sanchez did last week. The Patriots rediscovered their running game against the Bills, but Buffalo doesn?t have near the talent Miami does on the DL or at OLB. I normally wouldn?t bet against Tom Brady-to-Randy Moss in a shootout, but I just don?t trust the rest of the Patriots offense to be able to handle the stress of running at such high RPMs for four quarters on the road. Miami wins 33-27 in a game that will likely feature 80+ pass attempts. Chicago (4) at New York Giants (25): There is ample debate about the legitimacy of Chicago?s status as the final undefeated NFC team. I generally lean towards the ?you play to win the games? argument, but I do think they?ve benefitted from an under-looked boon. Chicago has faced three of the five worst offensive lines in the league so far in Detroit, Dallas, and Green Bay. That greatly helps their defense and allows them to be more aggressive attacking the QB. They get lucky again this week with a Giants team that has seen its OL regress from being one of the best to barely adequate over the last two seasons. Yet these Giants are a dangerous opponent. They appear to be rudderless and apathetic, but they still have very good talent at key spots, capable of flipping the proverbial switch if they can find the proper motivation. Will knocking off an undefeated, ?lucky? visitor do the trick? That?s an excellent question. I don?t think it?s going to happen, not with New York?s troubles in coverage and with the Bears defense playing so well, but I wouldn?t risk one penny on it. Lance Briggs continues his march towards Defensive Player of the Year in this one. Chicago 27, New York Giants 20. Washington (22) at Philadelphia (8): The media darling game of the week features Donovan McNabb returning to Philly against his former team and his former understudy in Michael Vick, who has quickly gone from pariah to MVP candidate. There are indeed some great story lines here, but they are incidental to the football game between the lines. That game focuses on which team can establish offensive balance. Washington is really struggling to run the ball, which takes away from McNabb?s excellent play action skills. They have just 5 first downs via the run in the last two weeks. Between Santana Moss? chronic inconsistency and Philly?s deep rotation of pass rushers consistently applying pressure, it makes it hard to buy into McNabb having great success throwing the ball. Philly?s secondary will make mistakes, and Chris Cooley is a very safe bet as a fantasy TE this week, but I just don?t see enough downfield acumen from Washington?s offense here. The Eagles offense has that dynamic big-play ability in abundance, with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin speeding all over the place and Michael Vick holding the safeties with both his eyes and legs. It?s simply a bad matchup for Washington as long as Vick continues to play superlatively, and there?s little reason to believe he won?t continue doing so. Philly welcomes McNabb ?home? by beating the Ethnic Slurs 24-10. Arizona (19) at San Diego (17): The worst 2-1 team faces the most talented 1-2 team. I could break down all sorts of matchups, but I?ll keep it simple--water finds its level, especially when the locale favors it. San Diego floods Arizona 30-13. Denver (23) at Tennessee (7): I like the Titans here for a couple of main reasons. Foremost is their formidable defensive line, which would be front page news if they played in New York. They consistently generate pressure from all angles and they seldom concede one inch of turf against the run. Tennessee also happens to have Chris Johnson, a threat to score from anywhere and a gifted receiving threat as a RB, something that gives the Denver defense fits. All the Tennessee turnover troubles appear to be more a function of Pittsburgh?s great defense than any inherent issues of their own, as they have just one turnover in their other two games. Need another reason why nearly every forecast model I ran in my head thinks the Titans are going to win? Check out the red zone battle: Denver ranks near the bottom in red zone offense, while Tennessee tops the charts in red zone defense. There is typically less wiggle in those ratings than most other metrics as the season plays on. Look for a lot of field goals with punctuation by a couple of long Chris Johnson TDs in a 26-16 Tennessee victory. NY Jets (10) at Buffalo (32): Buffalo proved last week they?re not a pushover, threatening New England and showing increased offensive life with more CJ Spiller and with Ryan Fitzpatrick replacing Trent Edwards, now exiled to Jacksonville. Still, there?s almost no question the Jets are going to win this game; they have the better offense, better defense, and better special teams. My only real worry is that New York lets down after emotional wins over New England and Miami, something that teams with braggadocios coaches are more prone to than most teams. I saw that in one survivor fantasy contest, this game is the pick of over 60% of all entries. I?d be careful with the overconfidence until the Jets prove they are that way themselves. Jets 27, Bills 17 but with lower confidence than most. Seattle (21) at St. Louis (28): Seattle stole a win last week thanks to Leon Washington taking two kicks to the house. St. Louis earned a win last week over Washington thanks to strong OL play, steady running by both Steven Jackson and Kenneth Darby, and a great coaching decision by Steve Spagnuolo to go for it on 4th and short with the game in the balance. These Rams still have some issues, but very quietly they are coming together and starting to do the little things that winning teams do: forcing turnovers (8 in 3 games), gaining good yardage on 1st down (they rank 9th so far), and consistently winning the field position battle. I?ll take the more fundamentally sound, tighter team over the road team that has needed lots of breaks to win. St. Louis 20, Seattle 17. San Francisco (30) at Atlanta (3): Mike Singletary sacrificed OC Jimmy Raye this week, largely on the grounds that his offense was too predictable. Never mind that Iron Mike alienated his players by pressing hard for a meaningless late TD, or that his defensive baby is a leaky diaper. Typically when a coordinator gets fired midseason the coach wants a radical change, but in promoting Raye?s underling Mike Johnson the Niners have essentially just changed brands of ketchup instead of going to mustard. The hot dog might taste a little different but it?s the same Alex Smith-led wiener. Making a cross-country roadie to play the surging Falcons doesn?t make that wiener any tastier either. Even without the chaos going on in SF, the Falcons would be a real tough test. Last week Michael Turner proved he?s still got some gas in the burner, but where Atlanta really impresses me is with the improved play of their defensive front. That?s bad news for a team heavily dependent upon Frank Gore running between the tackles. It will be interesting to see how hard the visitors fight if they fall behind early, which I think they will. Last year the Falcons hung 45 on this defense, and that was when the Niners still played with pride. The forecast models say Atlanta 24-13, but it wouldn?t surprise me if the Falcons double that victory margin if they jump out to a 10+ point lead in the first quarter. Houston (15) at Oakland (24): I felt terrible for Sebastian Janikowski last week when he missed the potential game-winner against the Cardinals. SeaBass has really matured into a respected leader and pillar of accountability and hard work in the sea of chaos that the Raiders have been swimming in for the last few years. It?s always tough for a kicker to miss one like that (ask Garrett Hartley or Graham Gano, to name but two), but it?s harder on the Raiders, who are still trying desperately to validate their optimism for the season. Considering the Texans won a game when Washington couldn?t make that same kick, the Houston confidence has to be high. I?m very intrigued to see how this Texans team handles getting beaten up by Dallas in as emotionally brutal a defeat as I?ve seen any NFL team suffer in a non-conference regular season game in recent memory. Houston is the better team here, but if they play to that potential remains to be seen. Andre Johnson is hobbled but should play, but this is a game where Arian Foster can really cement his status as a star. The NFL rushing leader was clearly the best Texan on the field a week ago, and his demeanor during the game gives me real promise that he can lead this team out of the funk. Foster is a different sort of cat, and if he can get his teammates to march to his drummer, they?re going to cruise here and be just fine. Waking Mario Williams up would really help, and he should dominate Raiders rookie LT Jared Veldheer. I respect Oakland QB Bruce Gradkowski and I think he?ll put up over 300 yards against a legitimately awful Houston secondary, but Houston has too many ways to win where Oakland keeps finding ways to lose. I?m wary of buying Texans stock here, but too many forecast models predict a return to bullish ways. Houston 31, Oakland 27. Detroit (29) at Green Bay (14): Matt Stafford is still out, Jahvid Best is iffy, and the Lions never win division games on the road. As a Lions fan I?d like to be more optimistic, but Green Bay is a terrible matchup for a team with Detroit?s coverage and tackling issues. Even coming off a short week after a draining, mistake-ravaged loss, Green Bay is the survivor fantasy pick this week. Packers roll 37-20. Indianapolis (2) at Jacksonville (26): The Jaguars have an unlikely track record of playing the Colts extremely competitively. And the potential is there for that to happen again...if the David Garrard from Week 1 shows up. That guy was poised, accurate, and decisive, completely opposite of the Jaguars QB we?ve seen the last two weeks. It?s so bad that Trent Edwards, a waiver claim because nobody would give Buffalo even a conditional 7th rounder for a 2007 3rd rounder, is a real threat to usurp the starting job here with another dismal Garrard performance. Other than the first half of the opener in Houston, the Colts defense has played reasonably well. I?ll ride that to a 30-14 Indy road win. Cincinnati (6) at Cleveland (27): If ever there was a ?get right? game for Carson Palmer and the pedestrian Cincy passing offense, it?s this one. The Browns were just the tonic needed for Joe Flacco and Baltimore last week, and it was just as much schematic errors by Cleveland as it was greatness by the Ravens. Leaving Eric Wright on an island against a bigger, very physical Anquan Boldin with no inside safety help was a recipe for disaster. Now Wright likely draws TO for most of the game, and TO remains a very impressive physical package. The Browns are not without talent on defense, but it?s not fitting well together, the result of chronic roster turnover and figuring out what pieces fit where. The Bengals don?t have those problems on defense, and they should have little trouble containing a Browns offense that hasn?t completed a pass to a wideout other than Josh Cribbs in the last 6 quarters. Bengals win the battle of Ohio 29-10. Carolina (31) at New Orleans (5): This matchup reminds me of last week?s New England/Buffalo game. There?s really no logical or viable explanation for the woefully overmatched Panthers to even keep this one close. Yet last week, the Bills were quite game and handily covered the big spread. I can?t explain why, not with rookie QB Jimmy Clausen making his second career start versus Gregg Williams? aggressively confusing defensive packages, but I am feeling the underdog cover the 13.5 point spread. Of course that could be my failed attempt at black bean soup for dinner, which led to an unsatisfying dinner of frozen strawberry waffles and string cheese. New Orleans 23, Carolina 16. Bye Weeks: Dallas (16), Minnesota (18), Tampa Bay (20), Kansas City (12) Drinking in the Dorm Room games: Last week: 4-1, which I?ve done each of the first four weeks now. Much more intriguing slate of games this week! Alabama 27, Florida 22 Iowa 31, Penn State 20 Oregon 39, Stanford 33 Wisconsin 20, Michigan State 17 Oklahoma 30, Texas 28