For most NFL fans this is the best weekend of the year. Nothing tops four plum time slots with zero competition from other games, featuring the best eight teams in the league. My picks went 2-2 last weekend, perfect on Saturday and winless on Sunday. What makes that agonizing is that I essentially said the Ravens and Cardinals should win, but I picked against my own rationale. This week I?m sticking with the gut. From a meteorological standpoint, this year?s playoffs are a bit of a bummer. Three of the four games this weekend are in domes, the other in San Diego, the city with the best weather in the world. Even last week?s cold really wasn?t much of a factor because the outdoor road teams were Baltimore and New York, not exactly bastions of nice January weather. Maybe next year we?ll be treated to a snowy, windy playoff game in Cleveland or a subzero wind chill when the Falcons travel to Lambeau Field for a Wild Card game. New York Jets at San Diego: This game reminds me a lot of last year?s Arizona/Carolina matchup in this round. Much like the Panthers last year, the Jets feature a great, two-headed running game, a superb OL, and a hard-hitting defense that can both clog the run and get to the passer. And much like that game, they?re in for a world of trouble against an offense that doesn?t care about running and a defense that can dominate a one-dimensional offense, forcing turnovers and daring a weak passing attack to beat them. San Diego doesn?t have the defensive playmakers that the Cardinals did, but they aren?t exactly lacking in that department. The exceptional special teams that San Diego consistently trots out will help control field position and won?t give up freebies to the Jets either. The Jets have swagger, and because the Chargers can?t run the ball well the Jets defense can really dial up the pressure on Philip Rivers. But here is where the Chargers really cause problems. Rivers doesn?t have a #1 wideout or a favorite target. Vincent Jackson will likely draw stud CB Darrelle Revis, but Rivers can capably find Malcolm Floyd or Antonio Gates or Darren Sproles or Legedu Naanne. Gates is a particular problem because as a tight end he commands attention from either a linebacker or a safety (perhaps both), and that takes away help on the outside and slows down the aggressiveness of the Jets patented blitz. San Diego does a great job of sprinkling in screens and flares, and LT is still just enough of a threat to keep some semblance of balance. I?m a Mark Sanchez believer, but it?s asking an awful lot of a rookie QB with the middling receivers he?s got to go into hostile territory and try to outscore the Chargers. San Diego has great special teams coverage units, which means longer fields and the need for more plays from Sanchez and the passing game. I certainly don?t trust Braylon Edwards as a #1 receiver and I like how the Chargers mix coverages. Jets coach Rex Ryan might truly believe his team should be favored, but I know someone who truly believes Elvis works at a Burger King in Kalamazoo too. Delusion never ends prettily. Chargers 22, Jets 13. Dallas at Minnesota: This game will be widely framed as Favre vs. Romo, old master vs. young prodigy. I don?t discount that, but to me this game is all about which team can run the ball more effectively against the other?s defense. As great as both Romo and Favre have been, their teams need the viable run threat to help out their offensive lines. They also need to grind some tough yards to keep the sticks moving and buy those defenses some time to recuperate. Setting up play action and keeping linebackers and safeties uncomfortable is integral for success in this one. So which team can do it better? Dallas is obviously flying high after spanking the rival Eagles, and with Felix Jones scooting all over the field they are more dangerous than ever. He and Marion Barber form a great thunder/lightning duo, though Barber has been slowed lately. They won?t fear the Williams Wall, and the Vikings really miss MLB E.J. Henderson. His replacement, Jasper Brinkley, fills the A-gaps with authority but lacks the lateral range and fluidity in open space to chase down cutbacks and runs bounced outside. He?s also a major liability in coverage, and don?t think Cowboys OC Jason Garrett hasn?t noticed; expect a lot of bubble screens and quick flares to Jones. Because Jason Witten demands so much attention at TE, it?s incumbent upon Brinkley to take care of those plays, and I?m doubtful the rookie is up to the task. Yet there?s something that tells me Minnesota has enough firepower and resiliency to overcome. I love how they ended the season, bouncing back from some lackluster efforts to absolutely annihilate the Giants. That showed me their mental state is strong and they are focused, which means the bye week won?t be a hindrance but rather a boon for rest and implementation of tweaks and tune-ups. With all those weapons--Harvin, Berrien, Taylor, Shiancoe--the Vikings offense can vary the point of attack and respond to what the defense is doing. Oh yeah, they have Adrian Peterson, a big play waiting to happen. I trust his ball security in this one, and I trust Favre with his as well. I really like the matchup of Jared Allen rushing Romo against Flozell Adams, who cannot handle Allen?s speed or powerful quickness. With Kevin Williams tying up the inside help, that will either force the Cowboys to keep someone in to help or else make Romo get rid of the ball quicker than he likes. The Vikings secondary is spotty at times, but with time to prepare and fresh legs, I think they?ll be able to handle Miles Austin and Jason Witten. I do not think Roy Williams has an encore performance in him for Dallas. It all adds up to an entertaining, back-and-forth affair that goes to the home team. Minnesota 24, Dallas 20. Arizona at New Orleans: Frequent readers know I?m a huge fan of the band Dream Theater. And that awesome group put out an album a few years back that accurately sums up my thoughts on this game: Six Degrees of Inner Turbulence. Many of the songs perfectly frame this outstanding matchup... Misunderstood: Everyone saw the Packers torch the Cardinals defense last week, but what everyone seems to be forgetting is that the Cardinals had stormed to a huge early lead. They also have Darnell Dockett, Adrian Wilson, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Karlos Dansby. Playmakers on defense; those are guys with pride and talent that won?t accept what they gave up last week and won?t let it happen again, not even against the high-powered Saints. Blind Faith: There is a wide assumption that the Saints can just turn the switch back on, blind faith that their finely-tuned offense from pre-December will reemerge. I do not share that vision. They?ve not been as potent against 3-4 fronts, and the extra week off won?t help sharpen a dulling tool. The War Inside My Head: This battle decidedly favors the Cardinals. The Saints have lost three in a row, and they were not resting their starters like so many other early clinchers. The seeds of doubt are planted in some fertile soil, even though you won?t hear that from any Saints players. Meanwhile the Cardinals survived last week and have the confidence of being the defending NFC champs. Goodnight Kiss: There is rampant speculation that Kurt Warner is set to retire at the end of the season. That provides a huge motivational tool for the Cardinals to send their savior QB out on top. Don?t snicker at that; it worked for the Steelers and Jerome Bettis, the Giants and Michael Strahan, the Broncos with John Elway. It?s a very real phenomenon, and the Cardinals are talented enough to back it up. About to Crash: The New Orleans defensive front 7 progressively worsened as the season progressed. The ability to rush 4 and generate pressure on the passer disappeared, and that put extra pressure on a patchwork secondary and a linebacking corps that lacks true playmakers. Green Bay got all sorts of pressure on Warner and he still eviscerated them. But I think this portends even better for Beanie Wells and the Cardinals run game. He?s fresh, the Saints defense is not, and that gives the Cards the ability to milk a lead a little. I don?t see the Saints being able to do the same, even though I will grant that the New Orleans running game is underappreciated. Finale: Arizona goes on the road and rolls over the reeling Saints, 37-30. Baltimore at Indianapolis: This one will be brief and honest. I would have picked any other team left in either conference to beat the Colts in this one, any except these Ravens. Why? I have several reasons. The Baltimore secondary is eminently flammable and nobody throws gas on a fire better than Peyton Manning. I get a feeling from the Ravens that they feel a sense of accomplishment by pasting New England and that they can say they had a good year even if they drop this game, whereas losing here would be a devastating failure for Indy. Baltimore has great running backs, but they had zero ability to throw the ball last week against a beatable Patriots secondary, and the Colts have both a better pass rush and better coverage than New England. Ray Rice might very well run for 170 yards and two TDs, but that won?t come close to being enough to keep up with Manning and the Colts offense. Indy rolls sharply after the layoff, 28-14. Look for an updated Top 103 prospects after all the underclassmen declare. -- Jeff Risdon is RealGM's senior football writer. He may be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com.