Last Week: 10-6, season forecast 145-63. A couple of news quickies I got a text this morning from a Redskins staffer that GM Vinny Cerrato has stepped down, which has now been confirmed. This is a move the Redskins faithful have wanted for years, and it signifies major changes are coming in Washington. It should also be read as, ?Daniel Snyder feels threatened by Cleveland?s aggressiveness in their GM search and wants to jumpstart his own.? He has acted swiftly and has already hired Bruce Allen. Regarding that Cleveland situation, two different sources that are very familiar with the ?Romancing the Holmgren? movie both tell me they expect him to take the job after this weekend. As for Eric Mangini, one knowledgeable source says the team has grounds for letting him go without having to pay him off thanks to the James Davis ?practice? injury, and they?ve already built up the legal case behind it. Thursday Game Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The Colts quest for perfection heads to northern Florida, a place that has not been easy for them to win. The Jaguars are in serious need of a signature victory, not just to stay a leg up in the crowded AFC Wild Card race, but also to gain some confidence that they legitimately belong. In theory, their offense is well-suited to attack the Colts with Maurice Jones-Drew pounding the ball and David Garrard carefully moving the ball around. The issue is that the Jags often have trouble scoring, and the Colts excel at preventing touchdowns. They also generate one of the weakest pass rushes in the league. That?s not good against Peyton Manning, but how much of Mr. Manning they see is an open question. Indianapolis has vowed to rest their key players in this ?meaningless? game, and this far out from the playoffs is the best time to do it. I think we?ll not see more than one half from Manning or Dwight Freeney or Dallas Clark, and the depth isn?t strong enough to inspire confidence against a tough team like Jacksonville. I?m going to waffle on this pick based on Manning: if he plays more than one half and leads more than two TD drives, the Colts win 30-17; if he sits more than he plays and can?t put at least 14 points on the board during his time, Jacksonville triumphs 22-13. If you must bet, never bet against Peyton Manning in the regular season, and keep in mind he was not at his best last week against a better Denver team and the Colts still rolled. Saturday Game Dallas at New Orleans: One of the things that gets lost in all the ?Dallas can?t play in December? hubbub is that they always seem to draw a brutal December schedule. This year is no exception, going from the red-hot Chargers to the still-unbeaten Saints. San Diego was simply a better team last week, and New Orleans is also a better team than Dallas in this week?s contest. Not having DeMarcus Ware pretty much ensures that Drew Brees will have all the time he wants to pick apart an inconsistent secondary, and the Saints? depth of pass rushers will keep Romo running all night long. I?m not picking against Dallas because it?s December, but that doesn?t exactly help their ?positives? side of the ledger either. New Orleans 34, Dallas 25. Best of the Rest Miami at Tennessee: The Titans still harbor the slimmest of playoff hopes, and they absolutely need to have this one. Miami has much more realistic aspirations, perhaps even catching the Patriots for the AFC East. The Titans are much better at home under Vince Young, who has a QB rating of 108.3 in Tennessee this year. Young is limited in practice with a hamstring but the Dolphins expect him to play. Limited mobility hurts Vince?s game, and the Titans will need every last point against a Miami team that has played extremely well in two close, pressure-packed wins in a row. I like that ability to pull out close ones, and I like Chad Henne?s ever-improving field vision. I also like the element of ?Where?s Wildcat??, as they haven?t used it in two weeks; Jeff Fisher has to think, ?Are they gonna use it? What will it look like now?? That keeps the defense off-balance, and with a lot of regulars at well below optimal health, I think that gives Miami enough of an edge to win. The Dolphins really help their playoff stock while ending Tennessee?s in a Miami 24-22 win. Atlanta at New York Jets: The silver lining for Falcons fans in the recent dream-killing swoon is that the team has better depth and better coaching than anyone knew. Mike Smith and his staff have done wonders with so many key regulars either gone or slowed, and the replacements like Chris Redman and Will Svitek have outplayed expectations. That gives fans hope that the team can quickly bounce back. It also should give hope for knocking off the Jets, who are a tenuous 7-6 and haven?t beaten a team within two games of .500 when they?ve played them. New York put on a defensive clinic last week, and their up-the-gut D has noticeably stiffened recently. With Michael Turner still not close to 100% and Darelle Revis locking down Roddy White, Atlanta will find points hard to come by. I think that will be true of the Jets too. As well as they run the ball, and Thomas Jones is firing on all cylinders, they don?t do play action passing very well and tend to wind up in 3rd and long more than they should. The Falcons give up the big play, but I?m not sold on Mark Sanchez making the throw or Braylon Edwards hauling it in. This figures to be low-scoring and in those sorts of games I always give bonus points to the team with the better kicker and the home team. Those are both the Jets in this case. New York squeaks by, 20-17. Cincinnati at San Diego: The terrible news of Chris Henry's death in an ugly incident hangs over this game. How do the Bengals respond to this happening to one of their own, albeit one already on IR and not exactly well-embraced in the locker room? Honestly I don?t think it matters all that much, because San Diego is rolling and present matchup issues for the Bengals? vertically challenged offense. If you can?t stretch the Chargers, their safeties are going to cloud the intermediate routes and fly up to snuff out screens and draws (not that the Bengals use either much!). Cincy will miss Domata Peko in the middle on defense, and with the way Philip Rivers is dialed in right now, even the Bengals? fine secondary figures to struggle. These Bengals are searching hard for a rallying point after last week?s butt-whipping in Minnesota, and maybe Chris Henry can provide that; this is an emotional group that has become much more family-like this year. Don?t discount that aspect, but like the ubiquitous ?30% chance of precipitation? you have to bank on the 70% chance of sun for San Diego. Chargers 27, Bengals 20. San Francisco at Philadelphia: All the focus from Monday night?s upset of Arizona has focused not on San Francisco but the Cardinals. Here?s a little nugget I picked up courtesy of Sirius NFL Radio: In the last 12 years there have been 17 games where a team forced seven or more turnovers, as the Niners did Monday. The teams that forced them averaged 35.5 points in those games; the Niners put up just 24. That?s not taking advantage of opportunities, and that?s not something that will be any easier in Philadelphia. Beware the letdown game from Philly, but I?m just not sold that Alex Smith & Co. can outscore them even on an off night from McNabb. Eagles 30, Niners 16. Green Bay at Pittsburgh: You?re going to hear a lot of talk about Steeler Pride and toughness and the heart of a champion. I?m here to tell you to turn down that volume, because with no Polamalu, no Aaron Smith, no Chris Kemoeatu, and two rookie corners pressed into extensive action, this is not the same team that won last year?s Super Bowl. It?s also not a team that matches up well with Green Bay. The Packers love to spread out the defense, and Aaron Rodgers excels at quickly identifying weak points and exploiting them with his impressive cadre of receivers. The Packers defense is peaking, and they bring the same sort of exotic pressure schemes that Cleveland used last week to pound Pittsburgh?s plodding, non-cohesive line. With Charles Woodson a legit DPOY candidate and a revitalized AJ Hawk looking great, Pittsburgh?s offense will have to really step it up. I?m just not sold they can do that, even at home. Green Bay 28, Pittsburgh 24. New England at Buffalo: I have no rational reason to think the Bills will triumph, but I just can?t shake the feeling that their passing offense is going to have a lot of success against a Pats secondary that breaks down more than a used Chrysler (relax car nuts, I drive a Chrysler). And I like the chances of the opportunistic Buffalo defense against Tom Brady, who has not been sharp and has a new baby at home to keep him from sleeping. The Bills can?t defend the run at all, however, and don?t think that Belichick doesn?t know that and how to build a game plan around it. With a low degree of confidence, New England is the pick. Patriots 23, Bills 21. Upset of the Week New York Giants at Washington: Time to give credit where it?s due: Redskins owner Daniel Snyder, for yanking much of the offensive responsibilities from lame-duck head coach Jim Zorn. Since that happened, the Ethnic Slurs have scored at least three offensive TDs in four of their five games despite (or perhaps aided by) losing their starting RB, Clinton Portis. They?ve finally found a rhythm for Jason Campbell, with TE Fred Davis blossoming and WR Devin Thomas finally living up to 2nd round expectations (16 catches, 217 yards, 2 TDs, 14 1st downs in the last 4). When paired with their woefully underappreciated defense, this makes Washington the team I thought they?d be when I predicted them to finish 9-7. Their good fortune should continue against the Giants woeful defense, which has given up over 29 points per game over the last five. New York ranks dead last in red zone defense for the season and has struggled all year against receiving TEs (see Brent Celek Sunday night). The New York offense is capable of putting up points in bunches, but that seems to tax their defense even further. The Skins people I?ve talked to recently tell me the team loves the role of spoiler and is confident they can do it. I am too. Washington 27, New York 24. The Rest Arizona at Detroit: One of the harder things to do is ignore past performances when evaluating future events. That?s true in weather; tropical depressions that could turn into the next Katrina often fizzle into a bad morning in Dominica and nothing more. The same is true of the Arizona Cardinals, who in successive weeks have spanked the mighty Vikings and shot off all their own toes in a humiliating display at San Francisco. There?s little rhyme or reason why they play the way they do, but one of the benefits of that is they clearly don?t dwell on what just happened. Expect nothing like what you saw Monday night, in no small part because Detroit?s defense cannot replicate anywhere close to the pressure that SF put on Kurt Warner. I expect more fight form Detroit, which also played its worst game of the season last week, but Arizona?s ?C? game would beat the Lions ?A? game at this point. Cards roll 33-13. Oakland at Denver: Just when this game was starting to look interesting, Raiders QB Bruce Gradkowski goes down for the season. That means Tom Cable must choose between apathetic, inaccurate JaMarcus Russell or happy-footed, inaccurate Charlie Frye at QB against a pass defense that just stymied Peyton Manning to an atypical off game. He chose Frye, which is stunning and pretty much spells the end of the #1 overall pick in the 2007 draft. Let that sink in and ponder where he might be next year as Denver cruises. Denver 30, Oakland 6. Minnesota at Carolina: The Sunday nighter doesn?t exactly have the juice that NBC would like, not with Carolina starting Matt Moore at QB and going without both starting offensive tackles. Carolina is a running team, and nobody runs on the Williams Wall. Try to bounce it outside and Antoine Winfield and Chad Greenway are there to punish the pigskin. The Panthers have one WR that scares anyone, but with no complementary receivers and Moore being little threat to beat them, Steve Smith is neutered almost without extra attention. I was impressed with how the Vikings bounced back after the Cardinals loss with a smackdown of the Bengals, and I think that momentum carries on. Vikings 24, Panthers 10. Chicago at Baltimore: Of all the damning statistics facing Bears coach Lovie Smith, the one that draws the most ire from the Windy City faithful is this one: 32nd in rushing offense. That?s right, the Monsters of the Midway rank dead last in rushing yards. It?s not just yards per game either; they also rank last in first downs via the run, 31st in percentage of runs that gain more than 5 yards, and 31st in percentage of plays that are runs. That means that not only can?t they run the ball, they don?t even try, which puts even more on Jay Cutler?s INT-prone shoulders. I haven?t even mentioned the Bears also rank near the bottom in run defense or how poorly that matches up with Ray Rice and Baltimore?s mauling OL. Yikes! Ravens 27, Bears 7. Cleveland at Kansas City: This is one of the toughest forecasts of the entire weekend. If the Browns defense that dominated Pittsburgh last week shows up, Cleveland will roll all over Matt ?I?m never not looking at my intended receiver? Cassel and the Chiefs offense. I?ve seen some signs of life from Brady Quinn, though he gets helped by his receivers a little too often. Cleveland has finally found functionally useful ways to integrate Josh Cribbs into the offense, and the dynamic of speed that Jerome Harrison brings makes them much tougher to defend. Still, the Chiefs have some valid arguments in their favor. Tamba Hali is the best pass rusher you?ve never heard of, and Jamaal Charles continues to impress as a versatile, big-play RB. There is some veteran pride in the locker room in Mike Brown, Mike Vrabel, et al, and they know how to circle the wagons. I have a strong feeling the team that scores first will win, and I like the Browns special teams to control the field position to set that up, if not score outright themselves. Cleveland hurts their draft slot by winning 23-20. Houston at St. Louis: The Rams played one of the worst games ever last week; two garbage-time late drives made the stats less egregious, but I?ve rarely seen a team so thoroughly dominated. At least the Rams did something positive in the wake of disaster and released mentally unstable G Richie Incognito. Unfortunately they also placed the other starting G, Jacob Bell, on IR. That means banged-up Steven Jackson will be without his two best run blockers up front, with unimpressive greenhorn Keith Null likely starting at QB again. This is a dreaded trap game for the visiting Texans, who pummeled Seattle last week and get a shot at Miami next week. And the Texans have had problems with games like this in the Kubiak era, particularly on the road. I can?t imagine them losing this, not with the way their defense has played against everyone not wearing horseshoes on their helmets lately. But you have been warned...Houston 37, St. Louis 10. Tampa Bay at Seattle: I live and breathe all things football, but honestly I can think of about 25 more appealing ways to spend Sunday afternoon than watching this game. Finish my Xmas shopping, play yet another game of Uno with my 4-year old son, finally vacuum the summer?s sand from my car, re-grout my kitchen tiles...you get the picture. Seattle 30, Tampa Bay 13. Check out the bowl preview podcast, coming soon to the NFL forum page! Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com