Last Week: 12-4, giving the season forecast a nice bounce to 112-48. Turkey Day games Green Bay at Detroit: My fellow Lions fans, savor the taste of last weekend?s sweet victory, because it might be the last one for awhile. With Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson both extremely doubtful, so is a Detroit win over the Packers. Green Bay will struggle with some injury issues of its own defensively, but the OL is slowly playing better. The Risdon family tradition of skipping the second half of an already-decided Lions loss in order to feast on Thanksgiving dinner will continue yet one more year. Green Bay 38, Detroit 17. Oakland at Dallas: The Dallas game on Thanksgiving is known in my extended family as the Tryptophan Bowl. Dallas had better not come out sleepy once again, because these Raiders proved on Sunday that the talent is there to beat good teams. Bruce Gradkowski is a great short-term shot in the arm for the moribund Oakland offense, a fiery leader with decent accuracy and an infectious passion. In short, he?s sort of the anti-Jamarcus. He?ll be tested by a very good Dallas defense that is really ratcheting up the pressure. Plug-in safety Alan Ball proved a nice upgrade against the run, and Keith Brooking is playing in coverage better than ever. With the Raiders playmakers just not trustworthy, I like the Cowboys to put up just enough points to outscore the Raiders in a low-scoring field position battle. Fun turkey day diversion: have a glass of wine every time the broadcast shows Raiders punter Shane Lechler and then pans up to the infamous scoreboard. You?ll be lit by halftime! Dallas 20, Oakland 13. New York Giants at Denver: I?m thankful for the NFL Network Thanksgiving night game, which gives millions of beleaguered, stuffed men a legit excuse to get away from the family and watch some football. It?s the one time of the year where I?m glad the NFL Network isn?t available on pretty much every cable company in the country. I say that speaking from my family experience; I can?t get it in Grand Rapids, my parents live on one side of Cleveland and some close family friends on the other and neither can get it, my in-laws live in greater Chicago and can?t get it, my brother lives in Greenville SC and can?t get it, my old house in Richmond VA can?t get it, my brother-in-law in Detroit can?t get it, my friends in Raleigh, Charlotte, Birmingham, suburban Denver, and across the lake in Milwaukee all can?t get it. You might have noticed that I haven?t mentioned one iota about the matchup, and there?s a reason for that...I have no inkling one way or the other. I believe the Broncos have been exposed for what they are, a well-coached but under-talented team with a broken mirror and smoke machine. That would normally send me scurrying to the Giants, but they have some troubling issues of their own. I don?t trust Eli Manning handling Denver?s exotic pressures, and I don?t trust the Giants secondary to contain Brandon Marshall or Eddie Royal, even with a hobbled Kyle Orton throwing it to them. I like the home cooking and altitude advantage for Denver. Broncos 24, Giants 21. Game of the Week New England at New Orleans: In the spirit of brevity, I?m taking the Patriots here for three reasons: 1. Even though the Saints are still playing well in the secondary, all the injury-related lineup shuffling ruins continuity. That?s bad news when facing Wes Welker, Randy Moss, but especially Kevin Faulk out of the backfield and Tom Brady?s knack for quickly identifying weak points. 2. The Patriots are exceptional at taking one thing away from the opposing offense, and the opponent has no idea what that will be until the game unfolds. Sean Payton is an offensive mastermind and Drew Brees is one sharp cookie, but those adjustments often take a few drives to figure out. That?s likely sacrificed opportunities, and you cannot afford those in a shootout. 3. Don?t think for a minute that the Patriots aren?t fiercely proud of their perfect regular season two years ago, and that they desperately want to preserve the rarity of such an accomplishment. It?s a similar vein to how the 72 Dolphins treated it, though less obnoxiously than Mercury Morris & Co....for now. New England 33, New Orleans 31 Prime Leftovers Pittsburgh at Baltimore: I?m going to waffle on this one, folks. If Big Ben and Troy Polamalu both play and are effective in the game, Pittsburgh wins. If Dennis Dixon takes more snaps at QB than Roethlisberger, and Polamalu plays less than half the snaps, Baltimore will roll at home. The grey area is if one plays and the other doesn?t, which could very well happen. I think Baltimore?s offense has cooled a bit, but they still hung in with the Colts last week even with little working well. Pittsburgh?s dreadful special teams and propensity to forget about the run for extended periods give the Ravens enough of an opening to even up these two in the playoff race. Ravens 28, Steelers 24, but if both Big Ben and Polamalu play, flip the score. Indianapolis at Houston: This isn?t the mismatch of prior years, but as the Texans once again proved Monday night, they still aren?t ready to hang with the big boys. As much improved as they are, particularly in the defensive back seven, they still find ways to lose where teams like the Colts find ways to win. I expect Matt Schaub to have good success and for the Texans D to keep Peyton Manning relatively in check, but when the game is on the line I simply cannot foresee Houston pulling it out. Sorry, Texans fans, but your team reminds me a great deal of the Toronto Blue Jays of recent years--good enough to win some other divisions, but not built to beat the teams in their division and not quite deep enough or loaded enough to crack the playoff ceiling. Colts prevail, likely on a late Houston mistake, a la the decision to run a QB dive to get two feet closer for the potential game-tying field goal instead of running a quick throw to freakazoid WR Andre Johnson to get a few yards closer and make it much more likely. That?s why I?m not a coach, and why Gary Kubiak won?t be one much longer either...Indy 32, Houston 28. Arizona at Tennessee: I?m thisclose to jumping on the Vince Young bandwagon, not necessarily because of how well he?s played lately but also because of how well he?s handled playing well. That is a major step in the maturity of a young QB finding his way in the NFL, and it?s a hurdle that kept tripping Young in years past. When paired with a simplified, more focused defensive scheme and increasing health of those practitioners of said defense, these are the Titans most everyone expected to see. They get a real test in Arizona, which is quietly racking up victories in unexpected ways. Only 10 teams have more rushing yards in the last four games than the Cardinals, and Arizona ranks 8th in the league over the same time period in yards per first down rush (5.1 YPA). Remember that when the talking heads blabber on about how Arizona won?t win because they can?t run the ball. Having said that, I get the strong guttural feeling that these Titans are on a historic mission, and Kurt Warner?s grogginess doesn?t help the Cards. This is victory #5 in a row of an impending 10-game winning streak that takes them from 0-6 to the 5th seed in the AFC playoffs. Tennessee 27, Arizona 17. Warm Stuffing Washington at Philadelphia: This is a real dangerous game for Philadelphia, which comes in having lost two of three, with the win a squeaker over the immolating Bears. Washington continues to play very solid defense; every Monday, fans of their most recent opponent bemoan their offense while ignoring just how talented the Skins are on D. Philly?s offense relies almost exclusively on the home run play, and the Skins are very adept at pitching around the sluggers and making the bottom of the order beat them. The Eagles have enough weaponry to get that done, but the 9.5-point spread seems awful high even with Washington?s inept offense. Take the Skins and the points, but the Eagles for the 17-10 win. Carolina at New York Jets: Death-gasp game for two teams still clinging to the longest of playoff hopes. There?s an intriguing contrast here in how the coaches have handled the rockiness. Carolina coach John Fox has stayed the course with his conservative game plan and turnover-prone QB Jake Delhomme, making few tweaks and believing that all the work over the summer and in prior years will pay off. Jets coach Rex Ryan has decided to expand his role in the offense, more specifically in mentoring rookie QB Mark Sanchez. They have changed defensive attacks almost weekly, and fluctuate wildly between asking Sanchez to be a careful came manager and then asking him to take over games with his arm all by himself. I think the handling of panic by the Panthers will prevail here, though I do agree with Coach Ryan that Sanchez needs a different voice in his ear. Short-term loss, long-term gain for New York. The return of Charles Godfrey at safety and the strong play of rookie Sherrod Martin carry the Panthers to a 26-21 win. Jacksonville at San Francisco: The Jaguars have quietly won three in a row while the Niners are fading away to playoff oblivion. But those three JAX wins have not exactly been impressive, and SF can claw back into the wild card mix with a couple of wins in a row, but it has to start here. That means Alex Smith has to summon the same type of performance he displayed in relief in the Houston game, and not the Alex Smith that deservedly got benched that we?ve seen the past few weeks. Color me pessimistic, because there are too many things that Smith just doesn?t do well, things that a smart defense can exploit--even one like Jacksonville that gets almost zero pressure on the QB. Pretty much all the matchup checkmarks go to the Jaguars, who can run the ball and stop the run, and they don?t turn the ball over. I think this is the type of game that demonstrates why Mike Singletary?s coaching style has a very short shelf life; they?ve already heard all the fire and brimstone speeches and intense exhortations from Iron Mike, and he?s pushed all in on too many smaller hands. Having said that, the more I wanted to finish this off by picking Jacksonville, the more my body told me San Francisco. It might be the black bean tostada I had for dinner, but when that cool, crampy, tingling sensation overcomes me like it is right now, it?s almost never wrong. San Fran somehow wins 27-24. Stomach Upset of the week Miami at Buffalo: If you read last week?s forecast, you might recall my research on midseason replacement coaches. Twelve of the last 15 mop-up coaches, as my friend Desmond likes to call them, have won game two. I did a little more digging with the help of the good folks at BetUS.com and found that 10 of those did that feat as at least seven point underdogs (opening line was MIA -3.5), and all but one of the home coaches won. That?s an awful lot of history going against the Dolphins, even in the face of pretty much all rational thought. So even though Buffalo lost yet another starter (G Eric Wood) to yet another freakishly nasty injury, I?m not fighting history, Recent history in this series also favors the Bills, who have won the last five against Miami at Ralph Wilson Stadium and have won 12 of the last 14 over the Fins when the temperature is below 45 degrees. Kickoff forecast: 39 and partly cloudy. Buffalo 23, Miami 20. Cold Turkey with Lumpy Gravy Games Atlanta at Tampa Bay: Atlanta is remarkably consistent at winning games they are supposed to win and losing games they are expected to lose. It makes them fairly easy and reliable to forecast, like a strong northwest wind producing lake effect snow showers off the Great Lakes in winter. A quick check reveals I?m 9-1 on Falcons games this year. This is a game they should win, even without Michael Turner, though the Bucs aren?t quite the pushover they were before Josh Freeman took over. Still, the Bucs are a mess with Coach Morris firing Jim Bates, his defensive coordinator. That means a coach younger than some of his players has already axed both coordinators in less than 3 months. Desperation isn?t any prettier with Tampa?s bad run defense and scattershot offense than it is after 10 Killian?s on Cougar Night at your local watering hole. Atlanta slogs to a 24-13 road win. Seattle at St. Louis: Another classic ?something?s gotta give? game. St. Louis can?t stop the run at all, while Seattle averaged less than a yard per carry last week on the ground and has topped 80 yards rushing just once on the road all year. The Rams have shown some improvement recently, though losing Marc Bulger isn?t going to help. Steven Jackson will have to do it all, and fortunately for the Rams he?s one of the few players in the league capable of doing so. It?s real hard for a team to go 1-15, and the defensive uptick in St. Louis leads me to believe they notch win #2 here against a Seattle team that hasn?t even been close on the road this year. St. Louis 17, Seattle 13. Chicago at Minnesota: One of the biggest mismatches you?ll ever see shapes up in this game. The Minnesota defensive line versus the Chicago offensive line brings to mind the Polish trying to ward off the German panzer attack with mounted cavalry. That didn?t go to well for Brigadier General Julian Filipowicz (see Dr. Fletcher, I paid attention in your sorry European WWII class!), and it won?t go well for Jay Cutler either. Vikings 33, Bears 17. Kansas City at San Diego: Beware overconfidence. Pittsburgh found that out the hard way last week, and the Chiefs could very well make the Chargers pay for it this week too. I like the way the Chargers secondary and pass rush have stepped up, and their OL is playing better every week. That should be enough, but it bears repeating: beware overconfidence. Chargers 30, Chiefs 24. Cleveland at Cincinnati: Any time a team bursts out with an unprecedented output like the Browns did last week, the question becomes, ?Was it legit?? I watched the game twice, studying Brady Quinn and all his successes, and I quickly concluded it had a lot more to do with some awful Lions coverage than sustainable greatness by Quinn and his greenhorn receivers. For all those great plays, Quinn also threw some real clunkers, and he makes his receivers work for the catch far too often. It worked against Detroit?s collection of misfit corners, but the Bengals have one of the best secondaries in the NFL. They also have a superior pass rush and better run defense, one that consistently smothers the types of runs that Jamal Lewis attempts. I think Cleveland gleaned enough offensive confidence to crack double digits, but that just won?t cut it in The Jungle. Bengals roll 33-10. Drinking in the Dorm Room Games Last week: 3-2, 39-21 on the season Florida 32, Florida State 10 Clemson 24, South Carolina 20 Stanford 38, Notre Dame 29 Georgia Tech 33, Georgia 21 BYU 20, Utah 17