Last Week: 9-4, pushing the season forecast to 83-33. November is here, which means it?s time for the half-season awards! Offensive MVP: Drew Brees over Peyton Manning Defensive MVP: Elvis Dumervil over Darren Sharper Offensive Rookie: Hakeem Nicks edges Percy Harvin and Mark Sanchez Defensive Rookie: Jairus Byrd leads a very impressive, deep class Coach: Marvin Lewis over Brad Childress and Jim Caldwell Most Improved Player: Antwan Odom, sadly done for the year Comeback: Will Smith, where have you been? It?s also a good time to modify the playoff forecast. The updated predictions: AFC: Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, New England, Denver win divisions; Cincinnati and San Diego get Wild Cards. AFC Championship: Colts over Chargers. NFC: New Orleans, Minnesota, Arizona, Philadelphia win divisions; Green Bay and Dallas get Wild Cards. NFC Championship: Vikings over Saints. Super Bowl: Vikings 31, Colts 27. Yes folks, I am drinking the Favre-Aid! Games of the Week (I couldn?t decide!) Dallas (8) at Philadelphia (7): The Cowboys are quietly playing some pretty good football. That silence got broken a little this week with talk of a schism between Tony Romo and Roy Williams, but I actually think a shot of adversity might be a good thing for their offense. They have been predictable at times, a very bad thing against an Eagles defense that thrives on varying the schemes based on offensive sets. Dallas desperately wants atonement for the disaster in Philly that ended their 2008 season, and with the NFC East lead on the line here the pressure will be intense. That?s just not a good thing for Tony Romo, who has wilted too many times under the heat lamps. The Cowboys can certainly win this game, but I need to see them put it all together in a big game once before I believe they will win a game like this. Philadelphia 28, Dallas 24, though note that my wife--who rarely misses on her picks--thinks the Eagles will miss Brian Westbrook too much and the Cowboys will win. Pittsburgh (6) at Denver (5): It?s a real bad week for Denver RT Ryan Harris to miss, facing a rested Steelers defense that thrives on complex blitzes and overload schemes. One major factor in Denver?s surprising start is their incredible run of health for their starters; Harris will be the first offensive starter to miss a game all year. The other main reason I favor the Steelers in this one is the lousy Denver special teams. Pittsburgh has some major issues with their own special teams, but bye weeks have a funny way of rectifying cover team problems. I see this game coming down to which offense can make a big play late to either seize the win or seal the victory. No offense to Kyle Orton, whom I consistently defend, but I?ll take Big Ben and his Steelers. Pittsburgh 20, Denver 17. Best of the Rest Houston (10) at Indianapolis (2): This is a great litmus test for the Texans, and they are acutely aware of it. If they want to be taken seriously in the AFC South and establish themselves as legit contenders in the AFC, they have to knock off the Colts, something they?ve done just once in franchise history. This is far and away the best defense Houston has ever brought into this series, which gives them a puncher?s chance. I would lean more towards the upset if not for Indy?s wake-up call last week at the hands of the 49ers. Some see their narrow victory over a mediocre opponent as a sign of weakness and vulnerability, but I have a feeling that Peyton Manning & Co. are going to see it as a reason to fine-tune and refocus. Houston reminds me of the little brother that hits a growth spurt and thinks they can finally take big brother to the hole, but finds big brother has more game than he?s shown in prior contests too. Colts 29, Texans 21. Baltimore (11) at Cincinnati (9): Playoff implications abound in this AFC North grudge match. Cincy won the first meeting on a TD pass with under 30 seconds on the clock, culminating a drive that Ravens fans will tell you got a whole lot of iffy help from some iffy calls by the zebras. I always worry about pass-heavy offenses coming off byes, as the precision might be off just a tad. These Bengals are far more than the pass-heavy teams earlier this decade, but at heart they?re still going to beat you with Carson Palmer throwing. Baltimore dominated and beat up the unbeaten Broncos last weekend, so they?ll be brimming with both vigor and vinegar. That should get keep them alive in the jungle. Ravens 23, Bengals 17. San Diego (13) at New York Giants (14): These teams appear headed in opposite directions, but this game reminds me of those radio ads touting investments that always run the disclaimer, ?past results do not guarantee future trends?. The Giants have stumbled against multi-faceted, balanced, playoff-caliber teams. San Diego has feasted upon bottom-feeders, if you can consider an 8-point home win over the lowly Raiders as ?feasting?. Both run defenses are struggling, but the Giants have the much stronger rushing attack, especially at home. Hard to fathom that the San Diego Chargers rank dead last in the league in rushing efficiency and yards per game. That?s not all on Ladanian Tomlinson and his diminished skills either. One-dimensional offenses ease the burden on the beleaguered Giants back 7. I also sense Eli Manning is due for a strong game. Giants win a 36-30 shootout. Miami (19) at New England (4): Miami busted out the Wildcat last year in New England, confusing the Patriots and launching a horribly overrated fad. The thing that everyone forgets is the next meeting between the two teams. New England racked up over 500 yards and 30 first downs en route to a commanding 48-28 spanking. The Miami secondary is improved from then, but so too is the New England offense. I give Tony Sparano a great deal of credit for maximizing the output of his Dolphins players, but the bottom line is that New England controls its own fate here. If the Patriots bring their ?A? game, maybe even their ?B+? game, they?ll win. Belichick teams have a habit of coming out strong off their bye week; they haven?t lost after an open week since 2002, and have given up just 3 opposing offensive TDs in the 6 games since then. Miami got outplayed by the Jets but won thanks to special teams magic, but that lightning just isn?t going to strike again so soon. New England 34, Miami 16. Arizona (12) at Chicago (17): ?They are who we thought they were? happened the last time these two met. That?s funny because these teams have yet to really establish a clear identity this season. Arizona has bombarded the Giants and Texans but laid eggs against the Niners and Panthers. Chicago has flashed playoff potential in beating the Steelers, but looked like a bottom-feeder against the Bengals. In short, we don?t really know what to think of either team. Read that as, ?Mr. Risdon has no freaking clue who to pick.? The bookies don?t either; Chicago is a 3-point favorite at home, and home teams give 3 points at home as a rule. Bet at your own peril. Bears win 28-27. Upset Of the Week Tennessee (27) at San Francisco (18): This is a real dangerous game for the 49ers, who are still very much in the NFC West race despite being 3-4. They will be without both starting offensive tackles, further weakening the weakest part of their relatively weak offense. Tennessee finally got the mojo working, and despite their 1-6 record they remain capable of going on a real hot streak. This game was framed the ?Redemption Bowl? by one of the RealGM message board faithful, pitting heretofore el busto QBs Alex Smith and Vince Young against one another. Both have played visibly better recently, but I like Vince Young?s supporting cast (read: Chris Johnson) better. Tennessee keeps their momentum and snares a 27-14 road win. The Rest Carolina (22) at New Orleans (1): Before you write this game off as a mismatch, two things to keep in mind. First, the Carolina Panthers currently sport the league?s top pass defense, which was on full-tilt display in their impressive shutdown of Kurt Warner & Co. last week. Secondly, Carolina has covered the point spread in their visit to division rival New Orleans every year but 2, including 3 straight-up wins as at least 6 point underdogs. The line here is 14.5, an awful lot of points to give away to a team that can play defense and run the ball the way Carolina does. Of course the way the Saints defense keeps forcing turnovers, Jake Delhomme could have yet another wretched day and all that won?t matter. I smell a closer game than most expect, lower scoring too. New Orleans salts away the NFC South with a 26-20 win. Washington (26) at Atlanta (15): In my forecasts this year, Atlanta is the only team I have correctly predicted every week. What that tells me is that they beat the teams they are supposed to, but can?t quite pull the upsets. Washington is a team they are supposed to beat...and they will. Soundly. Atlanta 27, Washington 13. Kansas City (28) at Jacksonville (21): The Jaguars lost last week to previously winless Tennessee, and now they draw the lowly Chiefs, also coming off a bye like the Titans did. Jacksonville is a tough team to read, wildly erratic and inconsistent in all phases of the game. They should have little trouble running the ball, as the Chiefs rank near the bottom in all rushing defense metrics. Jacksonville should control the clock and field position, as the Chiefs rank last in 3rd down conversion and 29th in average starting field position. Also in JAX?s favor: the Chiefs almost never win coming off a bye week, having lost five of their last seven--including four in a row on the road. That?s all well and good, but it all goes out the window if the Jaguars team that got slaughtered by Seattle or the one that couldn?t tackle last week shows up. I?m betting there is enough testicular fortitude in Jacksonville to keep that from happening. Jacksonville 31, Kansas City 20. Green Bay (16) at Tampa Bay (32): The winless, punchless Bucs are precisely what the doctor ordered for Green Bay and their Favre hangover. Great week to use the Packers in survivor fantasy football games. Green Bay 33, Tampa Bay 10. Detroit (30) at Seattle (23): Last Sunday, the Lions reverted back to ?same old? form, getting outcoached and out-hustled by the winless-no-more Rams. Ford Field was so quiet you could actually hear the coaches yelling out pre-snap adjustments from the sidelines. That?s something that won?t happen in Seattle, where the local faithful continue to vociferously support their Seahawks, even though it?s another disappointing season there too. Scary stat of the week: Detroit has won exactly one road game in the month of November since 1998, a 31-21 upset of the Giants in 2000 led by Charlie Batch and Desmond Howard, aided by four Giants turnovers and two Giants TDs wiped out by penalties. The Lions will need that sort of help to win this one, and you simply cannot forecast that many Seattle flubs. Seahawks cruise 33-13. Byes: Minnesota (3), Cleveland (31), Buffalo (24), Oakland (25), St. Louis (29), New York Jets (20) Drinking in the Dorm Room Games Last week: 4-1, taking the season ledger to 30-15. Penn State 20, Ohio State 9. Sorry to all my Buckeye faithful friends, but Tressel ball isn?t going to get it done against this Nittany Lions defense. Arkansas 27, South Carolina 25. Smelling the upset. Alabama 24, LSU 20. My friend Bo is a Tide grad but a Baton Rouge native. I pity his fingernails watching this one. Kansas 30, Kansas State 28. Not the sexiest of games, but of great interest to my Great Uncle Ralph Seibel, who in his mid-80s still knows his football better than some guys doing pre-game shows on major networks. Richmond 31, Villanova 23. Biggest game of the year in the FCS, could very well be a championship game preview. Go Spiders! Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com