Last week: 9-5, pushing the season forecast to 66-24. Unless you are a Titans fan, or perhaps a Patriots hater, you had to love seeing the first snowy game of the season last Sunday. It?s always an unpredictable experience how younger players respond to the unfamiliar elements. I believe that?s a hidden factor into why the Patriots, and to a similar extent the Giants and Steelers, can sustain their success. Their veteran players have played in the wind, cold, rain, snow, ice, and they know how to adjust. Contrast that with Titans rookie CB Ryan Mouton, a Houston native who played collegiately at Hawaii. At least part of his problem was his inability to adjust his footing to the snow and his body to the cold. Same with Mark Sanchez in cold, windy Buffalo; the SoCal lifer hadn?t ever played in elements like that before, and it showed. It?s not a major factor in games most of the time, but keep an eye on youngsters from the SEC and southern Pac-10 schools making their first trips to the cold, windy, wet conditions that constitute fall in the North and East. That means Percy Harvin, Clay Matthews Jr., Rey Maualuga, and Mohammad Massaquoi could all be in for disappointing weeks this week. Game of the Week Minnesota (3) at Pittsburgh (13): Points are going to be critical in this game, and that turns my attention to the red zone capabilities of both teams. Want to know a good reason (besides Favre, Peterson, and Jared Allen) that the Vikings are undefeated? Check out their red zone play; first in offense, 2nd in defense. Perhaps just as impressive is that they rank 4th (tied) in the league in red zone opportunities on offense and a respectable 14th (tied) on defensive chances. Pittsburgh ranks #2 on offense (thanks Heath Miller!), but their defense ranks just 24th. That means the Vikings are more apt to cash in for touchdowns where the Steelers might have to settle for a FG or two. Still, it?s Pittsburgh in late October, which means temps in the 40s, wind, and perhaps some light rain, not to mention the incredible confidence and energy the Steelers draw from their faithful Terrible Towel wavers. I think the Minnesota luck runs out here. Pittsburgh 24, Minnesota 21. Best of the Rest Arizona (10) at NY Giants (5): The Giants have one real weakness: pass defense. The Cardinals have one major strength: pass offense. The Giants feature a great rushing offense, while the strength of the Cardinals is run defense. In short, one team is well-positioned to exploit the other?s weakness, and they simultaneously are also well-positioned to stop the other team?s strength. Normally I don?t put much faith in matchup comparisons, especially when the Cardinals are playing in the east. But there is a tendency to over-correct for past week?s sins, and the Giants cannot afford to do that even though the Cardinals sport the league?s most anemic rushing attack. The Meadowlands has been a house of horrors for Kurt Warner, but I think he gets a little redemption here. Cardinals 30, Giants 24. Atlanta (7) at Dallas (17): Atlanta really impressed me with the toughness of their defense in the win over Chicago, something that was largely missing last year. They roughed up a Bears OL that is both immobile and fractious, i.e. similar to the Cowboys. Dallas has struggled with the pass rush despite stellar play from NT Jay Ratliff, a uniquely skilled difference-maker. I would like to think that being pushed to overtime by the inferior Chiefs would spark the Cowboys, but that has not been the case in the past for Tony Romo and friends. I always beware the dreaded 3-point favorite at home, which the Cowboys are here, because that essentially means the game is a push (handicappers invariably give three points to the home team). What that says to me is, Dallas is probably better but we don?t really trust them. When you consider the Cowboys usually give an extra point or two on the line anyways due to their popularity, it can be read that Atlanta is probably more apt to win, and certainly to cover. Falcons win 28-27. Chicago (14) at Cincinnati (12): Losing Antwan Odom really hurts the Bengals in games like this one, where the opposing QB is good at avoiding sacks even under heavy pressure. Odom was finishing those types of sacks as well as anyone, and the Bengals don?t have anyone who can fill that hole. The woeful left side of the Bears OL lends hope to the Bengals, but that is predicated upon Matt Forte running with more vision and authority. His legs look tired, which will happen when you get 900+ touches in a little over 2 years. I like the concept of Ced Benson putting it to the team that (rightfully) gave up on him, but the Chicago front has been playing real well in terms of gap integrity. I sense a tight field position battle, and that favors the Bears despite their propensity for idiotic gaffes and bad penalties. The cloud formations read Chicago, and I?m not about to argue with Gilgus Thunderhead. Bears 26, Bengals 24. San Francisco (15) at Houston (18): All the attention here will focus on 49ers rookie WR Michael Crabtree making his debut. But there is another rookie who is quietly putting up monster numbers at a position of dire need, and that is Texans LB Brian Cushing. Houston hasn?t had a worthy starting SLB since their inception, but the USC product has changed that. He already has 48 tackles and five passes defended, both of which represent a year?s worth of production from that spot. That sort of impact is critical to Houston, and it?s precisely matchups such as this one where the fruits of that investment should really pay off. The Niners struggle to sustain drives--they rank 31st in 1st downs per game and dead last in percentage of 3-and-out drives, and players like Cushing help guard against the big play that the Niners rely upon so heavily. Texans string two wins in a row together, something they have rarely done. Houston 27, San Francisco 17. Upset Special New Orleans (1) at Miami (16): The Saints are clearly the best team in the league after their demolition of the Giants. But strange things happen to undefeated teams in Miami, and all those bitter old 72 Dolphins still refuse to let their perfect season rest in peace. I suppose it?s pretty cool if you?re a Dolphins fan to see Mercury Morris, Nick Buoniconti, et al pop champagne on the sidelines when the last undefeated team falls in Miami, but to the rest of us it?s akin to seeing a fading starlet get naked on camera to try and keep the spotlight just a little longer. Enough of Meg Ryan?s nudity and enough of sponging off a feat that took place before any players on either team were born. That doesn?t mean that the upset magic is gone, however. Miami somehow shocks the Saints 27-24. The Rest San Diego (19) at Kansas City (27): What appeared to be a mismatch before last weekend suddenly becomes a very compelling game. No team does less with more than the Chargers, and the Chiefs have played pretty well against underachievers. One of my favorite NFL axiomatic clich?s is that good teams don?t just beat bad ones, they rout them. San Diego is just not a very good football team, and this game should provide the final spike in that coffin. The Chiefs pull the upset 24-20. New England (6) at Tampa Bay (30) in London: Anyone else find great irony that the New England Patriots are heading to Wembley Stadium to play a game? This battle should go a lot better for the Patriots, as the British were a much more game opponent than the hapless Buccaneers. Not even an army of Frenchmen can help Tampa win this game, and the NFL ?treats? the good people of England to a lopsided whipping that could be over as fast as last weekend?s Patriots pummeling of Tennessee. New England rolls in Old England, 38-13. Green Bay (9) at Cleveland (29): When watching the Packers-Lions game last week, the entire packed bar I was at all came to the same conclusion: if the Packers had even Detroit?s mediocre OL, they might not need to keep a punter on the active roster. But that Green Bay OL is full of holes that Swiss cheese-makers can only dream about; it?s easily the worst in the league. That leaves them vulnerable and puts more pressure on a defense that is still finding its way in the new scheme. The moribund Browns provide a good chance to build more confidence in both areas, though Shaun Rogers has an alarmingly productive history against the Packers: 7.5 sacks, eight other tackles for loss and a blocked FG in his last six games against them. Alas, his teams have lost every one of them. Green Bay 36, Cleveland 17. NY Jets (23) at Oakland (24): For all the talk about the ?Heidi? game, you?d think these two teams play infrequently, thus not letting that game some 36 years ago fade away. In fact, they?ve played every year but two in the last 10, including twice in both 2001 and 2002. How about some memories of the 2001 Week 17 matchup, which the Jets pulled off on a late TD to qualify for the playoffs (against Oakland) and keep the defending champion Ravens out? Or the following season, where the Raiders ended the Jets? playoff run (after the Jets shocked the Colts) by sitting on short routes and forcing Chad Pennington to beat them deep--a strategy that other teams copied and led to a downer season for the Jets the following year? I know it?s fun to reminisce about a strange historic event, but enough is enough already! Enough of another thing too: The New York Jets rank dead last in sacks, so can we shut up already about the awesome pressure of the Rex Ryan defense!?! Oh yeah, the game...the Jets threw six INTs in eight possessions and still darn near beat the Bills. The Raiders team that showed up against Philly will win here too, but you simply cannot trust that passion and warfare to pervade. Mark Sanchez gets comfortable in his return to California, and the Jets win 20-17. Indianapolis (2) at St. Louis (31): Just what the winless Rams need: a high-powered Colts team coming off a bye week to get healthy. That near-miss in Jacksonville could prove the nadir of the St. Louis season. A glimmer of hope: the Colts tend to show rust in the first half of games after byes; they?ve trailed at the half in four of their last six. Of course they only wound up losing one of those...Colts 31, Rams 10. Buffalo (25) at Carolina (22): Bad news for Buffalo: Carolina finally got the run game cooking. Last year it also took a few games before DeAngelo Williams found his groove, and then he ran for 18 TDs in their last 11 games. He finally got the wake-up call in 2009, and with the Jets coming off a dismal effort in trying to stop Thomas Jones, he is the running free (shameless Coheed & Cambria reference) this week. The Bills barely won despite getting six INTs and losing starting QB Trent Edwards to another concussion. Those sorts of fortuitous wins happen about once every three years, not two weeks in a row. Caroline quietly evens their record and re-enters the playoff race with a commanding 30-13 win in my survivor fantasy pick of the week. Philadelphia (11) at Washington (28): The Eagles have played one game against a team that currently has a winning record, and the Saints blew their doors off 48-22. The Redskins, meanwhile, face a team that enters the game with even one win for the first time all season. That?s pretty much the only way they have garnered any wins, because the Washington offense has been pathetic. It won?t improve with LT Chris Samuels shelved, certainly not against an attacking defense like Philly uses. The Eagles continue to get fat on the easiest 6-game opening schedule ever concocted. Philadelphia 20, Washington 6. Byes: Detroit (26), Seattle (21), Denver (4), Baltimore (8), Tennessee (32), Jacksonville (20) Drinking in the Dorm Room Games: 4-1 last week, 23-12 on the year. Kansas 26, Oklahoma 24 Miami FL 32, Clemson 20 TCU 20, BYU 17 Notre Dame 36, Boston College 31 Penn State 33, Michigan 24 Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com