Last week: 10-4, pushing the season mark to 57-19. I was also within three total points on three different games last week, including the Monday nighter that took way too many by surprise. The weather is starting to be more of a factor in games. Last week?s Cleveland/Buffalo game was marred by strong winds, and this weekend features games in Green Bay and Cincinnati, where cold temperatures and higher winds could put a damper on offenses. It looks like rain in Oakland and the Northeast, which helps out teams with power running games and slows down teams that like to blitz on defense. It?s also the time of year that many professional sports gamblers start to ease back on the wagering. There is enough baseline information on every team that the preseason notions and assumptions are now history. That is reflected in the lines for Tennessee, Buffalo, and Cincinnati; no more free points based on faulty assumptions. This is also when freak upsets tend to start popping up on a weekly basis. The best candidate this week: Kansas City over Washington, even though that?s not my game pick. Game of the Season So Far New York Giants (2) at New Orleans (1): I could go in about 20 different directions breaking this one down, but the one battle to which I always return is the Saints DL vs. the Giants OL. If the Saints D that we?ve seen in their past two games is the one that shows up at home off a bye, New Orleans should win. It helps New Orleans that Brandon Jacobs isn?t running with his usual fervor and Ahmad Bradshaw is dinged up. I think the Giants back-seven is better equipped to handle the Saints high-powered offense than any other team, but ?handling? them means keeping the score in the 20s. Can the G-Men put up that many points on the Saints? That?s the great debate, but something tells me the Giants? red zone woes aren?t going to end here. In order to beat New Orleans they cannot settle for field goals. New Orleans 27, New York 24. Best of the Rest Baltimore (9) at Minnesota (4): Baltimore is reeling after consecutive last-minute losses, but this is probably the toughest test yet for their revamped offense. The key matchup here is Vikings DE Jared Allen going against rookie backup LT Michael Oher. Allen gets sacks off pretty much everyone, so expect Baltimore to shift protections to help out Oher. That frees up Kevin Williams to do a lot of damage as a pass rusher, and it?s already near impossible to run between the tackles against Minnesota. That is true of Baltimore too; they rank near the top in all rushing defense metrics. But they showed vulnerability in the last two weeks with powerful inside runners that can cut. No back does that better than Adrian Peterson, and the Vikings don?t alter their plan of attack just because the opponent has a strong run D. Expect Peterson to still get a lot of cracks, and though he might take more 1-yarders than normal, he has the ability to break a couple. The Ravens? penchant for ridiculous penalties doesn?t help them, certainly not on the road against a QB that, like Tom Brady, cannot be touched without drawing a flag. Vikings 27, Ravens 17. Chicago (10) at Atlanta (12): Chicago comes in fresh off their bye week, a week they spent trying to plug the holes in their pass defense. Interestingly, these teams allow almost the exact same passing yards per game and yards per attempt. What that tells me is that the team that can run the ball and protect their own QB more effectively should win. The Bears defensive ends have been a major bright spot, but I see John Abraham & Co. having more success getting to Jay Cutler--a function of the Falcons? better OL and Chicago?s sputtering run game. That should be enough when paired with the prime time home game. Atlanta 30, Chicago 24. Arizona (14) at Seattle (16): This shapes up to be a highly entertaining affair, with the caveat that nobody has any idea which teams will show up on either side. These two are the toughest teams to forecast because they are so wildly inconsistent. I could lay out various victory scenarios for either team, but the plain truth is that I have no clue if Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde will show up on either side. Arizona is better equipped to handle those bad hair days, but Seattle at home can blow that hat off. If you lay money on this game, you probably have a gambling problem. Arizona 33, Seattle 30. Denver (5) at San Diego (18): This is one of those games where you have to trust the sports books. Denver is undefeated and is the best 2nd half team in football, certainly on defense. San Diego?s defense has largely disappointed, and they have the least-effective rushing offense in the league. All that, yet the bookies have set the Chargers as early four-point favorites. That screams out ?bet the farm on the Broncos?, which is precisely what they want you to do...which is why you should trust them on this one. The casinos make money every season, and it?s a game like this one where they suck you in that the bookmakers earn their paychecks. Take your empirical evidence that Denver should win and throw it out the window. San Diego triumphs off the bye, 24-20. Houston (23) at Cincinnati (8): The Bengals are in first place after sweeping their AFC North brethren, yet they almost certainly will be blacked out in their home market. That is karmic retribution to the Brown family for being frugal and continuing to employ too many people that get arrested too often. In other places, this lack of fan support would be a real downer. But Marvin Lewis and his coaches have fostered a very tight brotherhood that should thrive off the perceived slight. I also like their under-appreciated defense being able to slow down a Houston team that clearly lacks confidence in the red zone. So long as Carson Palmer?s thumb is okay, the Bengals will be too. Bengals 31, Texans 19. The Rest Detroit (24) at Green Bay (17): The Packers are always a tenuous pick with their simply unacceptable offensive line, but these Lions are the resistible object to that movable force. Even the ?good? Lions teams have struggled in the Land of Beer and Cheese, having won just once in their last 20 trips across Lake Michigan. Give the Lions some credit for playing a brutal schedule thus far and generally acquitting themselves as being vastly improved, but there?s a huge jump from being ?not bad? to winning divisional road games against a team coming off a bye. Expect a big week for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers pass offense in a 40-24 Green Bay victory. Kansas City (27) at Washington (21): Whenever the Chiefs play the Redskins, I cannot help but recall my childhood. I had one of those electric football tables where the players glided hopelessly out of control and there was no way to figure out plays. My favorite matchup was the Battle of the Indians between the Chiefs and the Redskins, with my baseball cards of Bert Blyleven and Rick Manning (Cleveland Indians, of course!) perched on the sides as head coaches. For some reason the John Riggins model could always run straight and the Art Monk model was always open, and the Redskins always won. I saw one of those tables the other day in an antique toy store and probably should have bought it. Oh well. Redskins find some offense in a 30-17 win. Carolina (25) at Tampa Bay (29): This is probably the best chance the Bucs have to win a game this season. Unfortunately for them, the Panthers are coming off a confidence-building win over Washington where the Carolina defense thoroughly dominated the line of scrimmage. Greenhorn QB Josh Johnson provides some spark for Tampa Bay, but that defense has little chance to slow down DeAngelo Williams or a revitalized Jake Delhomme. My Bucs fan cousin Brett is convinced his beloved will pull this one off, but he?s too easily distracted by his Yankees this time of season. Carolina 28-17, but be wary of the upset. Cleveland (28) at Pittsburgh (12): Clevelanders can depend on three negatives in life: orange barrels on the freeways, lake effect thunder snow, and the Browns losing in Pittsburgh. Derek Anderson might improve upon his 2-for-17 rate from last week, but they?ll need someone besides punter Dave Zastudil (Ohio U. product!) to be their best player. The Steelers are going to miss Aaron Smith a whole lot, but it?s probably not going to show up this week. Cleveland has just one win in Pittsburgh since their return to the league, a 33-13 pasting of Tommy Maddox in 2003, aided by a fumbled punt and 3 INTs. The irony here is that the QB that Derek Anderson is most historically similar to is one Tommy Maddox. My prediction here is for Pittsburgh to win by the average score of the last five home games vs. Cleveland: Steelers 32-16. St. Louis (32) at Jacksonville (22): Here?s the hangover effect of last season?s Lions actually completing a perfectly winless season. In years past, you could always assume that every team was going to win at least one game no matter how hopelessly they appeared to suck. But Detroit changed that, and it makes this winnable game for the Rams seem less likely. Jacksonville is way too up and down, and they take those to extremes. The Jags followed up a dominating win over Tennessee with the worst game played by any team this year in the loss to Seattle. The Jaguars team that showed up in Seattle last week will lose this game, but you just cannot accurately forecast which one will show up. Jacksonville is the pick, but not nearly as confident a pick as you would expect for playing a team that?s inferior to those historically inept Lions. Jacksonville 30, St. Louis 27. Philadelphia (6) at Oakland (31): I already used the Eagles (last week vs. the Bucs) in my survivor fantasy league, but if you haven?t yet, this is a great spot to do it. Philly in a 36-10 laugher. Buffalo (30) at New York Jets (13): Beware an angry Rex Ryan defense at home. Couple that with the Bills getting worse, not to mention more injury-ravaged, every week and this doesn?t look pretty. The intriguing side plot here is the diva WR battle between TO and Braylon Edwards. Methinks Braylon played his one good game this month on Monday night, but TO just doesn?t have the QB to get him the damn ball. J-E-T-S roll 35-13. Tennessee (26) at New England (7): One of the big topics on sports radio this week is, ?Why isn?t Jeff Fisher playing Vince Young?? The answer: Coach Fisher gets to see Vince Young in practice everyday and knows that Kerry Collins provides his team with the best chance to win. Collins hasn?t been great but he also hasn?t been the problem. That pass defense is flat-out terrible, and it?s hard to be a team that wants to run, run, run when you?re losing 17-3 by the end of the 1st quarter because your safeties can?t cover at all and your defensive front can?t get much pressure. That is a nightmarish but likely scenario again while facing Tom Brady, Randy Moss et al., especially considering the Titans/Oilers franchise has one win in Foxboro in the last 33 years. Patriots 41, Titans 20. Byes: Indianapolis (3), Dallas (15), Miami (19), San Francisco (20) Drinking in the Dorm Room games Last week: 4-1, raising the season tally to 19-11. Texas 24, Oklahoma 20. Texas really showed me something in how they responded to playing terrible in the first half against a terrible Colorado team. They can build off that and beat a dinged-up Sooners offense. Virginia Tech 26, Georgia Tech 25, perhaps in overtime. Alabama 31, South Carolina 16. Ohio U. 29, Miami OH 10. A sweet Homecoming victory for my alma mater. If you?re in Athens this weekend, head to the Junction and have a quad for me. USC 33, Notre Dame 27. Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com