As much as I loathe the early bye weeks, it does make a 12-win forecast look even better. 12-2 is pumpkin pie with fresh whip cream and nutmeg sprinkled on top, paired with hard cider, whereas 12-4 is pie with Reddi-Whip and warm apple juice--nice but leaving you wanting. The 12-2 mark takes the season tally to 47-15. Some sweet pie indeed! The big news this week is the Braylon Edwards trade from Cleveland to the New York Jets. My quick thoughts: It?s addition by subtraction for Cleveland, who will not miss Edwards? aloofness and inconsistency. They could have received more in return back in April, but they got a functional slot receiver and some valuable picks to play with. The Jets finally get the big vertical threat they clamored for, but if he can?t prove he can catch the ball under pressure, it?s all for naught. It?s a risk worth taking for New York, but I just don?t see Braylon Edwards handling the bigger stage successfully. If he couldn?t deal with the distractions in Cleveland, imagine how he?ll fare in the city that never sleeps. Also making news is Michael Crabtree finally signing in San Francisco. If the preliminary reports of the deal are correct, he held out for less money than he would have gotten back in June, though he did gain a voidable year with easier incentives. All this nonsense should help the NFLPA realize they badly need a rookie slotting system as an integral part of the next CBA. It?s a chip they can give away for something else, perhaps expanded rosters or more guaranteed portions of contracts. On the field, it?s unlikely Crabtree plays before their bye week, and he?s walking into a tight locker room that he will have to win over by working hard with his mouth shut. Game of the Week New England Patriots (7) at Denver Broncos (6): I?ve overcome my doubts of the Broncos? ability to sustain their torrid start--this team is legit. But I think the undefeated run ends here at home at the hands of the master, Bill Belichick. The Denver OL has shown cracks in pass protection, and I just have a gut feeling that Kyle Orton is primed for one of those days that marred his career in Chicago. The Patriots are clicking in all facets of the game, and they keep that rolling. Interesting tidbit: just three 4-0 teams have ever been home underdogs since 1990, and all three lost...by a combined 51 points. The sportsbooks know something here by making the 3-1 Pats a road favorite over the 4-0 Broncos. New England triumphs 33-13. Best of the Rest Cincinnati Bengals (8) at Baltimore Ravens (5): The rapid development of Joe Flacco and the Baltimore passing offense gives the Ravens a totally new outlook, but I?m still somewhat skeptical they can sustain it. The Bengals are a tough test, with a vastly improved pass rush and a cohesive secondary that could dominate a thin receiving corps. The key here is the matchup between rookie LT Michael Oher against DE Antwan Odom, tied for the league lead in sacks. Oher has been impressive thus far, but with a backup on the other side (Marshall Yanda, a good backup indeed) the Ravens figure to shade their help his way. That could leave Odom with some one-on-one opportunities. It could also mean a lot of screens and draws right at him, and the Ravens run those very well. I like the Ravens at home in a close, entertaining game that will reward your trip to the local sports bar. Baltimore 27, Cincinnati 20. Atlanta Falcons (12) at San Francisco 49ers (9): I?m very intrigued by how the Michael Crabtree signing impacts the 49ers. That is a very tight ship right now, and they?ve taken on some potentially salty water with a greenhorn rookie. I?ve talked to a couple of Niners recently about Crabtree, and trust me when I say they were less than enthused about the prospect of him joining the team. This is a major test for Mike Singletary?s coaching acumen...and so is the Falcons offense, which had a bye week to tweak the blocking up front and get Michael Turner rested and hungry. But the Falcons almost never win in SF, having just one victory in their last 10 trips. Worse, they?ve failed to cover the spread every time. I?m still not buying into the 49ers being real great, but I?m not going to swim upstream against that massive tide. San Francisco 20, Atlanta 14. Houston Texans (15) at Arizona Cardinals (16): Two high-octane passing offenses, two clunker pass defenses. Sure sounds like a high-scoring shootout, right? Not so fast my friends! Lots of times when the forecast sure looks sunny and high, a low-pressure system strikes from out of nowhere and the great offenses get rained down upon. That forces a forecast based on which team can blunt the others? sunning attack, and I favor the Cardinals more aggressive, rested defense to do that. Arizona 23, Houston 16 New York Jets (10) at Miami Dolphins (19): This is the second week in a row where the Jets defense gets all the attention for its style, but the opposing defense actually matches up pretty well against the New York offense too. The dynamic rookie duo at cornerback is working out quite well in Miami, as Vontae Davis and Sean Smith improve weekly and look like they could rate amongst the league?s best sooner than you think. The key here is how well Mark Sanchez rebounds from the worst game of his life. If Cameron Wake and the rest of the Dolphins bring the heat like they did against Buffalo, Sanchez? misery could continue. But I see a strong bounce back week for a talented Jets OL, and the Dolphins don?t attack the B gaps like the Saints can, one of the drawbacks of a 30 front. The Jets have found loads of success against the Dolphins lately, but there?s something about Monday Night Football in Miami that makes strange things happen, even with Chad Henne at QB. Miami in the upset 28-27. The Rest Pittsburgh Steelers (13) at Detroit Lions (25): Steeler Nation is still gripping, but at least they?ve come to grips with Rashard Mendenhall as their running back. His authoritative performance in Monday?s come-from-ahead victory has mollified the worries about the run game. That mind-easing should continue this week in Detroit, where the Lions still have major holes on defense. So long as Big Ben & Co. take care of the ball, Pittsburgh should cruise, but bettor beware: The Lions almost always cover against the Steelers at home, having done so seven of the last nine times--and as a home dog in 6 of those. The current line is 10.5, so with the cover the Lions keep it to a 30-20 loss. Cleveland Browns (29) at Buffalo Bills (27): Two things happened in their overtime loss to Cincy that tells me these Browns should win this one. First is the emergence of Jerome Harrison, who ran with authority and a heretofore absent dose of speed, something that takes a lot of pressure off Derek Anderson and the passing game. Second was the way the Browns defensive line stepped up, and I?m not just referring to Shaun Rogers and his blocked kicks. The Buffalo line is still learning how to play together, and Rogers has a tendency to string together dominant efforts. I took a lot of flak for doubting Bills QB Trent Edwards in my Bills season preview, but he has validated my skepticism with erratic play and poor decisions. Brady Quinn had the same problems, but the Browns switched to Anderson; the Bills, alas, do not have that luxury. Cleveland celebrates being Braylon-free in a 24-20 stunner that could spell the end of the Dick Jauron era in Buffalo. Dallas Cowboys (18) at Kansas City Chiefs (30): Okay Cowboys fans, your time has finally come! This is the week where your beloved team finally puts it all together and looks like the dominant playoff force that Jerry Jones so desperately covets. Too bad it?s against the Chiefs, who have done the same for every other team they?ve played. Dallas cruises 37-17 in this week?s survivor fantasy game pick. Washington Redskins (20) at Carolina Panthers (24): This is the toughest game of the week for me to forecast. The winless Panthers are coming off a bye, while the Skins just might be the weakest 2-2 team ever. I expected much more from both. In fact, in my Redskins season preview I forecasted that the winner of this game would get the final NFC Wild Card spot. That looks ridiculous now, but if the winner here can get their running game and pass rush fired up, it?s not as unlikely as it seems. I?ll take the great, classy owner over the meddling blowhard one. Carolina wins 20-17. Minnesota Vikings (2) at St. Louis Rams (32): In the grand history of NFL football there might not have been five more mismatched contests than this one. If it were possible, these Rams could score negative points in this one. I guess I?ll have to settle for the Minnesota defense to win 14-3, which pairs with the offense for a 40-3 Vikings laugher. Indianapolis Colts (3) at Tennessee Titans (23): This is probably overly simplistic, but sometimes the K.I.S.S. principle works; Tennessee cannot defend the pass at all, and they now face a team led by Peyton Manning that is on pace to break the all-time passing yardage record. The Titans woebegone OL is little match for Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis either. Colts roll 33-17. Jacksonville Jaguars (22) at Seattle Seahawks (26): I see this as a huge game for the Jaguars, who quietly have a pair of impressive divisional wins and are visibly more confident as a result. Seattle is so beat up already; it seems like half their starters are questionable or worse. They?ve struggled to run and also stop the run, and that plays right into Jacksonville?s hands. It is real hard to pick against Seattle at home, but the emergence of TE Marcedes Lewis and WR Mike Sims-Walker has given David Garrard enough viable options to throw to that he can pick apart a porous Seattle secondary. Jacksonville has some secondary woes of their own, as their opponents complete over 71% of their passes, but the Seahawks haven?t shown the ability to balance it with an effective running game. Jacksonville surprises Seattle 24-20. Oakland Raiders (28) at New York Giants (4): Lost in the hubbub over the awful play of Raiders QB Jamarcus Russell is how it has decimated their promising running game. Teams are daring Oakland to throw; on three separate snaps last week the Texans used just their two CBs in coverage, with both safeties lined up within 5 yards of the line. The Giants have the top pass defense in the league by a wide margin, which leads to my suggestion for Raiders coach Tom Cable: the wishbone. Think about it when you?re down 21-0 before you have a completed pass or first down. At least it will eat some clock for your beleaguered defense. Giants in a 30-9 yawner. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (31) at Philadelphia Eagles (14): Some interesting ideas for prop bets for watching this game: 1. Number of times the announcers work themselves into a lather with Vick on the field, only to see him do nothing +/- 9.5 2. Number of times Cadillac Williams? remarkable recovery is discussed +/- 11.5 3. Number of shots of Bucs rookie QB Josh Freeman wondering how he?s not better than incumbent starter Josh Johnson +/- 5.5 4. Minutes of coverage before analysis of when the Bucs might actually win a game (my guess for that game: week 13 @ATL) +/- 34.5 minutes Eagles return off their bye with a 27-10 waxing of the hopeless Bucs. Byes: New Orleans (1), Chicago (11), San Diego (17), Green Bay (21) Drinking in the Dorm Room Games Alabama 28, Ole Miss 20, although the confidence is low here UCLA 38, Oregon 33, only because Oregon can?t win big games on the road and I dislike Colin Cowherd?s northwest bias Ohio State 19, Wisconsin 13, too much Buckeyes defense for the Badgers LSU 23, Florida 20, I just smell the upset Ohio 33, Akron 24, Bobcats pick up a nice in-state victory