October is here, which means we have a good baseline to judge the NFL teams and players for this season. There are still seven undefeated teams, which leads to an interesting question: which of those teams slides and fails to make the playoffs? Last year, three 3-0 teams finished the year on the outside looking in, wondering what happened. Of the undefeated this year, the easy team to pick to fall back is Denver, which has shocked even themselves with their hot start. But with the Chargers sputtering again and both the Chiefs and Raiders done already, the Broncos have a decent chance at sustaining their playoff status in the AFC West. The two 3-0 teams I see in the most peril are the Jets, with their rookie QB and declined rushing attack, and the Vikings, playing in a tough division and heavily reliant on a greybeard QB who has broken down late in the year three of the past four seasons. That does not mean I think it will happen, but they are more visibly vulnerable. Having said that, right now if you put a gun to my head I just might pick the Vikings to win the Super Bowl. This week also marks the beginning of the bye weeks. Soapbox time! I?ve laid out this plan four years in a row now, and I?ll keep screaming it until it changes. The bye weeks should be weeks 6-9, and they should be done by division. Week 6 is the bye week for the AFC and NFC South teams, Week 7 for the West divisions, the North?s in Week 8 and the East teams in Week 9. It is an unfair competitive advantage within the division to not give all teams the same bye week. Last Week: 12-4, taking the season forecast to 35-13. Games of the Week Baltimore (1) at New England (12): Baltimore has been the most complete team in the league thus far, with their most glaring vulnerability being their special teams. The problem for New England is that their own special teams aren?t very special, either. Expect a lot of varied formations from the New England offense as they try to make the Ravens adjust to them, not vice versa. A sharp Tom Brady can handle the pressure and find success against Baltimore?s gambling defense, but the line in front of his has to give him time. I went into this thinking the Pats? OL was a real problem, but they?ve surrendered just one sack in a league-leading 143 dropbacks. That stat sure seems like a red herring to me (using two TEs and two RBs helps), but I also lend the same status to the heretofore awesome passing game of the Ravens. Something?s gotta give, and in New England I think it?s Joe Flacco & Co. that give, not the home team. Patriots match the spread with a 20-17 win. New York Jets (6) at New Orleans (3): New York is most noted for their aggressive defense and their ability to get to the QB, especially against Kerry Collins and the Titans last week. Here?s a stat that might surprise you. The Saints registered 14 hits and 18 QB pressures on Buffalo last week. That?s 5 more hits and 7 more pressures than the Jets generated. New Orleans also has a better run defense average and forces more turnovers. All this talk about how the Jets are going to disrupt Drew Brees & Co., and yet I?ve heard nothing about how rookie QB Mark Sanchez will handle the vastly improved New Orleans defense. He?ll be doing that without the benefit of a complementary rushing attack, as the Jets rank near the bottom in yards per attempt and yards on 1st down rushes. Need another reason why the Saints are the better team here? New Orleans leads the league in penalty differential, while the Jets rank 20th. When you get into a shootout you cannot afford to shoot yourself in the foot. Saints 31, Jets 21. Green Bay (7) at Minnesota (5): For all the hype that will go to Brett Favre facing his former team, the key to this game is the Green Bay offensive line. That group has been woefully inadequate at providing Aaron Rodgers with time to get comfortable in the pocket. Jared Allen and Kevin Williams are problematic for any OL, but against the Packers? Swiss cheese line, Rodgers might get creamed. The Vikings secondary is sturdy enough to handle the 4 wideout sets, and because of the combination of the Williams Wall and Ryan Grant?s tentative running, the linebackers can drop without sacrificing run support. That Favre guy still has some magic too, although after practicing against him for years the Packers D probably knows better than any how to slow him down. I get a sneaking suspicion Favre could have one of his Bad Brett nights, but I also have a hunch Adrian Peterson and Antoine Winfield can compensate. Vikings 30, Packers 27. Best of the Rest Dallas (14) at Denver (11): The Broncos finally face a test at QB after getting two breathers (Jamarcus Russell and the Brady Quinn/Derek Anderson crapfest). Denver did have success against Carson Palmer, but a closer look reveals the Bengals beat themselves more than anything the Denver defense accomplished; all but 2 of Palmer?s 10 incompletions were drops. Dallas has struggled with the dropsies themselves, but their OL can pound on the Denver front and give Tony Romo time to pick apart a secondary that hasn?t been tested. Denver?s ball control style and shamefully underrated OL can control the clock, and we?ve all seen what happens to the Dallas offense when they get antsy. Dallas must strike early, and I think with their firepower and their being overdue for a turnover or two, they take the Broncos out of their rhythm early. Dallas 24, Denver 13. San Diego (16) at Pittsburgh (15): This is a critical game for the Steelers, who cannot afford to fall 2 games behind Cincy and perhaps 3 games behind Baltimore and still hope to seize a playoff berth. Chris Berman loves to reiterate that ?Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills?, but I would argue that distinction belongs to the Steelers. A prime time game at home in what should be about 40 degree weather is exactly what Pittsburgh needs. San Diego?s lousy red zone offense leaves too many points on the field to win games against good teams, and Pittsburgh?s defense always turns it up under the lights at home. Steelers find some running room in a 27-17 Pittsburgh win. The Rest Oakland (28) at Houston (19): By stubbornly sticking by JaMarcus Russell as his QB, Raiders coach Tom Cable has torpedoed any chance for a winning season. I have no idea what he sees that makes Cable believe he can win with Russell, other than the giant contract Russell has weighed around his neck. He needs to sit out, lose about 25 pounds, learn to read a defense, and get the fire in the belly that comes from losing your job. That does not happen overnight, unfortunately. Houston sorely needs Mario Williams to get it going, as the Pro Bowler has just 1 sack and 1 other QB hit in 3 games; last year that was a good half for him. Still, the way to beat the Texans is to test their secondary with the pass, and Oakland clearly cannot do that. Texans 26, Raiders 16. Tennessee (20) at Jacksonville (25): The Titans keep manufacturing ways to lose. Fumbling punts, ill-timed secondary breakdowns, Kerry Collins going ice cold, the OL unable to pick up blitzes--it?s not been pretty. Still, these Titans have been very close in their 3 losses, and their strength of schedule is very high. Jacksonville produced a gut-check win over the Texans last week, something the Titans couldn?t muster. The emergence of Mike Sims-Walker at wideout has helped ease the burden on Mo Jones-Drew, giving the Jaguars two hyphenated playmakers on offense. This is a good week for Tennessee to get healthy on offense, as JAX cannot rush the passer at all and Collins has a history of lighting them up. The question becomes, can the Titans? suddenly iffy back 7 slow down the Jaguars more balanced attack? Hard to say, but I just cannot fathom this Titans team falling to 0-4, even on the road. Titans 26, Jaguars 24. Buffalo (23) at Miami (21): The reeling Bills took a major hit in losing their top two defensive backs, CB Leodis McKelvin and S Donte Whitner. Any time a team loses two Pro Bowl-caliber talents, it?s going to hurt, but for a Buffalo defense bereft of any other playmakers at all, it?s a crippling death blow. The Bills catch a nice break with Miami, which will start greenhorn Chad Henne at QB after the season-ending (perhaps career-ending) injury to Chad Pennington. Henne couldn?t be more divergent from Pennington, and that could cause some adjustment pains for the Dolphins offense. I actually think he fits better with Ted Ginn, with Henne?s rocket arm and confidence in said arm, but he?s got to prove he can make the correct reads and come close to Pennington?s impeccable accuracy. The decimated secondary makes for easy pickings, and I like the Miami defense at home in this game. Dolphins enter the win column with a 27-17 home win. Detroit (26) at Chicago (13): Good litmus test for the Lions here--how do they handle the success of netting their landmark victory last week? Chicago has been a house of horrors for Detroit lately, but only in even-numbered years. Detroit won at Soldier Field in 05 and 07, and this Lions team is visibly better than either of those editions. There?s the Risdon Jinx working here too; I was at those 06 and 08 games, both 34-7 victories by Chicago and neither as close as those scores indicate. I will not be making the 2.5 hour trek to this one, which gives the resurgent Lions a fighting chance. They?ll have to improve their tackling and their pass rush, plus avoid the crippling mistakes. I don?t trust the Lions that much just yet, but an upset here wouldn?t surprise me and shouldn?t surprise you. Key factor in this game: 1st down yardage differential. The 10.5 point spread seems way too high. Chicago 25, Detroit 20. New York Giants (2) at Kansas City (30): A flurry of recent roster moves are tips that these Chiefs finally realize just who they are: a terrible football team with no chance this year. By cutting veteran pluggers Monty Beisel and Ricardo Colclough, plus keeping end-of-the-line WR Bobby Engram inactive, GM Scot Pioli tacitly declared this a full-blown rebuild. Trading 3rd string QB Tyler Thigpen (still a better QB in my opinion than Matt Cassel!) for a pick reinforces that belief. This game matches up the least talented defense in the league against the most talented, although the Giants have some injury issues in the secondary that leave them vulnerable...just not to these Chiefs. The hallmark of a great team is that they crush vastly inferior teams, and the Giants proved last week against the lowly Bucs they are up to the task. Giants 33, Chiefs 10. Cincinnati (10) at Cleveland (32): Most of the negative attention towards the woebegone Browns has focused on the inept offense, but the defense has not been much better. Much like their Indians brethren up E. 9th Street, these Browns have already mailed in their season. The Bengals have won at Green Bay and just beat Pittsburgh, and Cedric Benson earned a good chunk of his nice (and deserved) contract extension by putting up nearly 200 yards the last time these two met. Great week to use Cincinnati in fantasy survivor games, because the Browns are a discordant mess that would rather lose and get away from their coach by any means necessary than show pride, suck it up, and fight to represent a city that desperately wants them to try. Derek Anderson will start for Cleveland, which means more chances for INTs for the Bengals. Cincy pitches a 27-0 shutout. St. Louis (29) at San Francisco (17): Of all the winless teams, the Rams have the best chance to crack the win column this week. With Frank Gore out, the Niners lose their top threat and only proven rusher. I like Glenn Coffee, but he?s a rookie and not nearly the power rusher that Gore presents. Kyle Boller provided a real spark at QB for the Rams last week, and the line played better in front of him than Marc Bulger. I smell a bit of a Favre hangover in San Fran, not from the coaches but from the defense, and I also smell overconfidence. I?m not sure the Rams have the firepower to pull off the outright upset, but a Niners offense that probably can?t score more than one TD giving 9.5 points? See you at the collection window. 49ers 16, Rams 13. Tampa Bay (31) at Washington (22): The Skins can?t possibly drop two in a row to winless teams, can they? I think losing to Detroit is a wakeup call for the Washington defense, which is immensely talented but has not demonstrated that very well. The doctor ordered a one-dimensional offense with a QB controversy, backed up by a putrid run defense. Enter the Bucs, who will start Josh Johnson at QB as they try to get a 1st half 1st down, something they couldn?t manage last week. Their best shot for that is via penalty. Washington gives Coach Zorn some ice for his hot seat with a convincing 30-6 home win. Seattle (24) at Indianapolis (4): Sooner or later, the Colts? inability to run the ball consistently is going to bite them. It won?t be this week, as the Seahawks can?t stop the run. Nice to see Mount Union product Pierre Garcon providing a real spark for the Colts offense, and his physical style could be a problem for the Seattle secondary. Indy has to watch the penalties but should cruise to a 27-17 win. Byes: Arizona (18), Philadelphia (8), Carolina (27), Atlanta (9) Drinking in the Dorm Room Games Last week: 2-3, slumping the season tally to 12-8. Oklahoma 38, Miami FL 20 LSU 24, Georgia 21 California 19, USC 16 Michigan 33, Michigan State 29 Villanova 40, William & Mary 28