Preseason has started, which means the return of real football is right around the corner! We?ve got Brett Favre coming back, Michael Vick coming back, violence in Raiders camp, and so much more! $.01--I fired up my laptop this morning, checked emails (Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com) , and had two in my inbox from the Vikings; one a player and one a scout. One said, ?#4 is here.? The other, ?The circus has come to town. What you?re about to see on ESPN is true.? I have four initial reactions: 1. Like anyone really expected him to stay retired... 2. If I were his teammate I would be completely bent that he pulls a stunt like that to get out of camp and still gets the messiah treatment while I?ve been busting my hump getting ready for the season with all my mates here in bug-infested, humid Mankato. 3. The Vikings wasted a 4th round pick and $9M to get Sage Rosenfels. 4. I wonder what, if anything, they?ll get for Tarvaris Jackson. Trust me, I?m as sick of Favre as you are. And I think this is going to end very poorly, a la Jerry Rice in Denver or Franco Harris in Seattle. Once the aging body starts to falter it goes away quickly. I cannot fault Favre for still wanting to play, but it seems mighty hypocritical when people laugh at Jeff George for wanting to come back, but ignore Favre?s choke job last December and keep encouraging and enabling him. With Tarvaris Jackson as their starting QB, I had the Vikings penciled in for 11 wins and the NFC North title, but probably not any playoff wins. While I would agree that Favre offers them a better chance to win any one individual playoff game, I have a real hard time seeing his 40-year old, declining body withstanding a full season and leading a team he barely knows to more than about eight wins. $.02--Michael Vick signs in Philly. I?m not going to get wrapped up in the ?should he be playing? brouhaha, but instead just focus on the football aspect. Here?s a 30-year old who hasn?t been near an NFL program for two full years. The Eagles run the purest West Coast offense of any team in the league, an offense that Vick consistently struggled in earlier in his career because of accuracy and timing issues. They already have a somewhat promising backup QB in Kevin Kolb behind Donovan McNabb, who is hyper-sensitive to any sort of challenge or threat. If they plan to use Vick as a Wildcat option QB, that means Kolb will have to be inactive or the emergency QB on game days, not exactly the message you want to send to your alleged QB of the Future. Certainly Vick brings a new dimension to the offense, one that opposing defenses will have to take into account, and that is valuable to Philly. But I just don?t see Vick being worth the headaches for what little he?s likely to contribute on the field, unless they make him a full-time RB. Of course that negates their 2nd round investment in LeSean McCoy, and entails teaching a brand new position to a 30-year old who has been out of the game for two years. I sincerely hope he works out, but I just don?t see it being what Philadelphia wants or needs. $.03--Both Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler had rough goes of it in their first preseason games after trading places this offseason. Orton looked worse, but I think Broncos fans should be less concerned than Bears fans. Kyle Orton is used to spreading the ball around to a lot of different receivers and handling a pass rush, and he?s now in a situation where he has a very good #1 WR, a solid #2, and perhaps the best bookend pass-blocking tackles in the AFC. Cutler lost those advantages and clearly seemed to be trying to force the ball to the one wideout he knows might make the catch and do something with it, Devin Hester, who would be the #3 WR on most teams but is the #1 in Chicago. I like the revamping of the Bears OL, but to think Orlando Pace is going to be as awesome as Ryan Clady anymore is taking the word ?incredible? to its literal root meaning. Is Jay Cutler a better QB than Kyle Orton--absolutely. Will that mean more wins for the Bears--probably not. It?s going to take some time and adjustment for Cutler to learn how to play with lesser talent and higher expectations. $.04--By request from the message board faithful, here is my preseason football viewing guide. --Pay close attention to the offensive and defensive line play, particularly while the starting skill position players are still on the field. The line play winds up being closer to regular season results than any other spot on the field. --Watch the special teams coverage units. This is almost always comprised of young players trying to make a name for themselves and thus make a team, not necessarily the one they?re currently playing for either. Many prominent players got their start this way. --Look for emerging young talent; guys who are entering their 2nd and 3rd years and are due for a more prominent role, or who have been earning praise in camp reports. Two good examples this year: Chaz Schilens in Oakland and Philip Merling in Miami. Of course as I write that very sentence I see on the crawl that Schilens just broke his foot... --The third preseason game for every team is the best indicator of regular season fortunes, particularly for teams with new coaches. Beware huge upsets however, because teams like the Steelers, Colts, and Chargers--good teams with little roster turnover--aren?t going to play the starters as long or as hard. --Do not watch the final preseason game unless you have nothing better to do. Half the guys who play half the game won?t be wearing the same uniform one week later. There are two exceptions here: teams starting a rookie QB (the Jets and Lions) or teams switching defensive schemes (the Packers and Chiefs). $.05--Further evidence that your father?s Raiders are back in black came this week, as Assistant Coach Randy Hanson (allegedly) suffered a (allegedly) broken cheek bone at (allegedly) the hands of Head Coach Tom Cable. Regardless of whether Cable punched him, flipped him out of a chair and into a cabinet, or Hanson slipped in the shower, this is proof that the Silver and Black are fully back in the 70s mode that owner Al Davis has never let go. Admit it--you heard about this and thought, ?Only the Raiders?... $.06--There are now just three unsigned first round picks, and judging by the players and the teams involved it?s a very safe bet that the inglorious string will continue that the final team to sign their first round pick misses the playoffs. Andre Smith in Cincinnati, Michael Crabtree in San Francisco, and Aaron Maybin in Buffalo are all going to be lost causes as rookies for teams that desperately needed them to be major assets right away. There is zero excuse to not be signed by now, and no matter how much the clubs like to blame the agents, the truth is that it?s just as often the team being unreasonable as it is the agent (err, player). That is not the case with Crabtree, who has validated the pre-draft flags about his maturity and intelligence by demanding #2 overall money despite being the #10 overall pick. Note to Mr. Crabtree: just because you see various mock drafts that project you to go #2 doesn?t indicate any sort of reality. I actually get paid by an NFL team to compile those drafts and create myriad scenarios, and we had a couple versions where you fell into the 20s because teams were worried that you are a knuckleheaded prima donna. Now that you?ve proven this to be true, or rather created the perception that it?s true, shouldn?t you be happy to get paid what the #23 pick got? $.07--I?m already a big Jon Gruden fan in the MNF booth, and I?ve long been a fan of Cris Collinsworth as a broadcaster (I freaking loathed him as a Bengal!). Here?s hoping ?Chucky? stays in the booth for longer than this year, even though I have a sneaking suspicion he?ll be coaching somewhere--with Mike Holmgren as his GM--in 2010. It will be nice to be able to listen to the prime time broadcast network feeds this year instead of awkwardly wearing headphones and holding my portable FM receiver just right so I could catch the radio feed. $.08--In this trying economic climate, it is high time the NFL gets rid of the arcane, archaic local market blackout rule. If the stadiums aren?t selling out it?s not because of lack of local interest; the prices are too damn high and more people have less money these days. Stop punishing the millions of fans who love your product but either cannot afford to go see a game, or do not want to sit around screaming strangers, sharing bathrooms, and fighting awful traffic to go do the same. Every game should be available to local home markets. Actually, every game should be available to anyone, anywhere in the country on every cable system, but I?m tired of beating that drum. $.09--Am I the only one who is genuinely excited and optimistic about the United Football League? If people will pay good money to sit largely bored at a minor league baseball game, why wouldn?t they do so for football? The NFL sorely needs a developmental league different than the NCAA, and the UFL has positioned itself properly to fill that chasm. As someone who did his senior history thesis on the USFL and why it failed, I can tell you they?ve already avoided some of the pitfalls that befell prior competitors. And for those of you who can?t stand the BCS, you should strongly support the UFL as the sword in the stone that might finally slay that NCAA beast. $.10--I?m getting the questions about next year?s draft class already. Without doing specific players, I?m bullish on offensive tackles, safeties, tight ends, defensive tackles and defensive end/rush linebackers. The quarterbacks have good potential but I need more convincing. Real bad year to need running backs (again), corners, more traditional LBs, and interior O-linemen, taking into account the college season is still two weeks away. Lots of funny things happen throughout the course of a college season, then still more funny things happen leading into the draft.