Updated: 4/25 - 10:07 AM It's 6:25 PM on the night before the draft, and the #1 overall pick is still an unknown. This is the most difficult draft to forecast in years, with so many players of comparable ability and value tightly packed into draft ranges. Since it's a taboo to include potential trades into mock drafts, many times I placed a player into a slot that doesn't necessarily fit with the team currently in that slot. So before you send me emails questioning my sanity (FYI -- I already know I'm crazy), consider that I might be forecasting a trade that changes the team picking in the slot. I'll be online during the draft to comment on each selection. Check the NFL Draft Forum on the message boards. Even if you aren't a member of RealGM (shame on you!) you'll be able to get my knee-jerk feedback, as well as some of the other strong football minds in the RealGM community. Click here to view the discussion: NFL Draft Forum Click here to listen to Jeff on Thursday night's edition of RealGM Radio: April 23rd Episode Round 1 1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia. Signed, sealed delivered. This all but guarantees the Lions will go defense with their next two picks, perhaps more. 2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, T, Baylor. I've stuck to my guns with Eugene Monroe at this spot in every incarnation of the postseason mocks, but numerous sources I respect and trust are saying Smith will be the choice. I worry about his run blocking more than most, but he's ready to start at LT from Day One. 3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest. The best player in this draft goes third, to a team that desperately needs his overall impact. Note to Todd McShay: there is more to playing OLB in a 3-4 than rushing the passer, and Curry does all those things better than most veterans. It's either Curry or Tyson Jackson, and the scenario where Cleveland takes the one not taken here looks pretty certain. 4. Seattle Seahawks: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC. It might not be Seattle picking Sanchez here, but I strongly believe the precocious USC signal caller will be the #4 pick in the draft. Frequent readers will note I've held this position much longer than the more prominent pundits. 5. Cleveland Browns: Tyson Jackson, DL, LSU. Draft-board riser brings his ability to collapse the pocket and versatility to play a variety of spots at a high level. Having Jackson inside should help Kam Wimbley regain his rookie form. I will be very surprised if they don't go defense with this pick. 6. Cincinnati Bengals: Andre Smith, T, Alabama. Put this pick in Mont Blanc, even with Eugene Monroe on the board. Three months ago Andre Smith was the top player in this draft, and the Bengals have proven they will take a chance on talent with personal warts. Smith is not a bad person by any account, just a na?ve na?f. 7. Oakland Raiders: Jeremy Maclin, KR/WR, Missouri. I don't discount the Heyward-Bey rumors, but Maclin is just a little faster and that gets him the apple in Al Davis' eye. I do believe they would take Andre Smith if he somehow falls. 8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Eugene Monroe, T, Virginia. Concerns about his knee cause Monroe to slide out of the top 5, but the Jaguars would be ecstatic to get him. Anthony Munoz had questionable knees too. This pick is clearly for sale, and Monroe or B.J. Raji would be worthy targets. This is the floor for the top two QBs. 9. Green Bay Packers: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College. Dom Capers needs a legit nose tackle to make his 3-4 defense work, and Raji fits the bill perfectly. His ability to get into the backfield and make plays make this a no-brainer. If he's gone, this pick will be either Malcolm Jenkins or one of the above OTs that would fall. 10. San Francisco 49ers: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech. Not their biggest need, but this is another case where the player available is simply too good to pass up. If Crabtree goes to OAK, I believe the Niners would take Michael Oher here. I've heard from people who would know that they are not Josh Freeman fans. 11. Buffalo Bills: Michael Oher, T, Ole Miss.. After trading Jason Peters, this pick immediately locked into a tackle. I've heard that the Bills really like Oher and would have considered taking him here even with Peters still on the team. If Oher is gone I would speculate they take a reach on Brandon Pettigrew here. 12. Denver Broncos: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas. This is assuming they don't trade up to get Sanchez (I put those odds at about 66%). Their defense needs an extreme makeover, and Orakpo can play either OLB or DE capably in the mold of Jason Taylor. It is at this point of the draft where you really should forget about the team picking in the slot and focus on the player going in that slot instead. Some matches work out both ways, but I'm largely fixated on choosing the player/slot more than the team/player for the next 30 picks. 13. Washington Redskins: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee. The Skins are desperate for defensive playmakers, and Ayers offers the ability to pressure the QB and force mistakes. Aaron Maybin or Clay Matthews would not surprise me here either. 14. New Orleans Saints: Chris ?Beanie? Wells, RB, Ohio State. Reliable people who would know have reported that Coach Payton is smitten with the talented but somewhat difficult Wells. He has the potential to more than fill Deuce McAllister's shoes as the power back that would allow them to convert a 3rd down and short without going to 4 WRs, but Wells has earned the knock that he has to be 100% physically or else he shuts it down. As I said in the last edition, their need for a CB is drastically overstated. 15. Houston Texans: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State. The Texans would take about 10 seconds to get the card with Jenkins' name up to the Commish in this scenario. For all criticism of Jenkins maybe being a better safety than corner, the same could have been said about Rod Woodson. 16. San Diego Chargers: Eben Britton, T, Arizona. See the comment above #13, though the Chargers certainly could use a tackle of his caliber. Britton's ability to play either side adds value and makes him a trade target in this range. 17. New York Jets: Brian Cushing, LB, USC. Not their biggest need, but I just see Cushing right in this range and the Jets sure seem hellbent on trading up for a QB. Cushing has the ability to play next to David Harris inside, which is an area of concern. Gil Brandt let it slip they are not Heyward-Bey fans, and Mr. Brandt does not write fiction. 18. Denver Broncos (from CHI): Rey Maualuga, LB, USC. This is a critical spot for Maualuga, because if he doesn't go here he likely drops to at least #25. He fits best as a 3-4 ILB that allows him to do what he does best -- seek and destroy between the tackles and not worry about anything outside the hash marks, where he is a liability. Two NFL front office people I greatly respect believe Maualuga will fall into the 30s, for what it's worth. 19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State. I'm not sold that the Bucs want a QB, but I think their potential for taking one will make any team that wants to rescue Freeman deal up and take him here. 20. Detroit Lions (from DAL): Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss. New coach Jim Schwartz knows the value of a physical D-lineman that can threaten in the backfield. I've heard rumblings that if Curry goes #1, this pick is headed to Cleveland for Brady Quinn, but that's just some other "insider's" guess. That same insider told me about the Shaun Rogers and Roy Williams trades well before they happened, so I don't discount it. 21. Philadelphia Eagles: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia. Another pick where it makes too much sense, and it's hard to envision Moreno falling much lower than this. Once again, I'm shooting for player/slot accuracy more than team/player. 22. Minnesota Vikings: Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest I actually have a strong inkling they are going to take Phil Loadholt with this pick. Smith represents the more rational viewpoint, but don't be surprised to see the Vikings take the Oklahoma tackle somewhere before their scheduled 2nd round pick. 23. New England Patriots: Everette Brown, DE, Florida State. He would fill a need, and many folks have Brown rated in the top 15 overall prospects. That kind of value gets him targeted in this range, and the Pats could very well deal up, perhaps way up. 24. Atlanta Falcons: Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois. The Falcons sorely need a counterbalance to Jon Abraham, and English has the ability to fit at a variety of spots. Or this pick will be traded to a team targeting English. 25. Miami Dolphins: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut. Real tough choice between Butler and Brian Cushing, but I get the sense Butler has more value than Cushing, who is not a great pass rusher as an outside LB. 26. Baltimore Ravens: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State. This is probably too low, and I admittedly have a giant bias against him. The Ravens make sense as he can learn from Terrell Suggs, who is essentially the best-case outcome for Maybin and will hit free agency next year. 27. Indianapolis Colts: James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State. Baby Animal is a perfect fit in the middle of a base Cover-2 defense, and he adds size and snarl to a defense badly in need of both. They would love if Jerry fell here. His floor is the Lions pick at #33. 28. Buffalo Bills (from PHI via CAR): Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech. The booty for Jason Peters is a pass rusher with incredible potential, but very real questions. Teams tend to take more risks with acquired picks, and I'm shamelessly applying that school of thought here. He also makes sense as a trade target in this range. 29. New York Giants: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland. This is assuming they don't deal for Boldin or Edwards and still need a downfield big-play threat. DHB certainly fits that bill, but like Edwards he suffers from bouts of dropsies and inconsistency. 30. Tennessee Titans: Clay Matthews, LB, USC. Jeff Fisher is a USC guy, and this franchise benefitted from his uncle Bruce, the best lineman of the last 25 years in my opinion. His late emergence onto the scene holds back his value just enough for him to fall here. 31. Arizona Cardinals: Connor Barwin, OLB, Cincinnati. I think the depth at RB allows the Cards to focus on replenishing the defensive depth. Barwin's versatility and athletic potential are invaluable to a team like the Cards that run a variety of defensive looks. They can use his red zone TE skills too. 32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Alex Mack, C, California. It's not often the Steelers need a center, and Mack is a Steeler kind of player. He has the ability to play G if needed, and the Steelers need that too. Round 2 33. Detroit Lions: Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan 34. New England Patriots (from KC): Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut 35. St. Louis Rams: Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State 36. Seattle Seahawks: William Beatty, T, Connecticut 37. Cleveland Browns: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers 38. Cincinnati Bengals: Eric Wood, C, Louisville 39. Jacksonville Jaguars: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State 40. Oakland Raiders: Phil Loadholt, T, Oklahoma 41. Green Bay Packers: Clint Sintim, LB, Virginia 42. San Francisco 49ers: Fili Moala, DT, USC 43. Buffalo Bills: Evander ?Ziggy? Hood, DT, Missouri 44. Miami Dolphins (from WAS): Cornelius Ingram, TE, Florida 45. New York Giants (from NO): Max Unger, G/C, Oregon 46. Houston Texans: Cody Brown, LB, Connecticut 47. New England Patriots (from SD): Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma 48. Denver Broncos: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois 49. Chicago Bears: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina 50. Cleveland Browns (from TB): LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh 51. Dallas Cowboys: Ron Brace, DT, Boston College 52. New York Jets: Jarron Gilbert, DT, San Jose State 53. Philadelphia Eagles: Jared Cook, TE, South Carolina 54. Minnesota Vikings: Mike Thomas, WR, Arizona 55. Atlanta Falcons: Marcus Freeman, LB, Ohio State 56. Miami Dolphins: Asher Allen, CB, Georgia 57. Baltimore Ravens: Percy Harvin, WR/ATH, Florida 58. New England Patriots: Patrick Chung, S, Oregon 59. Carolina Panthers: Paul Kruger, DE, Utah 60. New York Giants: William Moore, S, Missouri 61. Indianapolis Colts: Sen?Derrick Marks, DT, Auburn 62. Tennessee Titans: Ramses Barden, WR, Cal Poly 63. Arizona Cardinals: Rashad Jennings, RB, Liberty 64. Pittsburgh Steelers: Sean Smith, CB, Utah Round 3 65. Detroit Lions: Kraig Urbik, G/T, Wisconsin 66. St. Louis Rams: D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt 67. Kansas City Chiefs: T.J. Lang, T, Eastern Michigan 68. Seattle Seahawks: Derrick Williams, WR, Penn State 69. Dallas Cowboys (from CLE): Darcel McBath, S, Texas Tech 70. Cincinnati Bengals: Lawrence Sidbury, DE, Richmond 71. Oakland Raiders: Alex Magee, DT, Purdue 72. Jacksonville Jaguars: Cedric Peerman, RB, Virginia 73. Green Bay Packers: Jamon Meredith, T/G, South Carolina 74. San Francisco 49ers: Coye Francies, CB, San Jose State 75. Buffalo Bills: Pat White, QB, West Virginia 76. New York Jets (from NO): Jairus Byrd, CB, Oregon 77. Houston Texans: Michael Bennett, DE, Texas Tech 78. San Diego Chargers: Jonathan Luigs, C/G, Arkansas 79. Denver Broncos: Roy Miller, DT, Texas 80. Washington Redskins: Gerald Cadogan, T, Penn State 81. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Donald Washington, CB, Ohio State 82. Detroit Lions (from DAL): Shawn Nelson, TE, Southern Miss 83. Green Bay Packers (from NYJ): Chip Vaughn, S, Wake Forest 84. Denver Broncos (from CHI): Andy Levitre, G, Oregon State 85. Philadelphia Eagles: Louis Murphy, WR, Florida 86. Minnesota Vikings: Mohammad Massaquoi, WR, Georgia 87. Miami Dolphins: Herman Johnson, G, LSU 88. Baltimore Ravens: Dorrell Scott, DT, Georgia Tech 89. New England Patriots: James Casey, TE/HB, Rice 90. Atlanta Falcons: Mike Mickens, CB, Cincinnati 91. New York Giants: Darry Beckwith, LB, LSU 92. Indianapolis Colts: Jarrett Dillard, WR, Rice 93. Carolina Panthers: Christopher Owens, CB, San Jose State 94. Tennessee Titans: Kyle Moore, DE, USC 95. Arizona Cardinals: Antoine Caldwell, C, Alabama 96. Pittsburgh Steelers: Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Oklahoma 97. New England Patriots: Tyrone McKenzie, LB, South Florida 98. Cincinnati Bengals: Glen Coffee, RB, Alabama 99. Chicago Bears: Deangelo Smith, DB, Cincinnati 100. New York Giants: Austin Collie, WR, BYU Round 4 101. Dallas Cowboys (from DET): Ladarius Webb, CB, Nicholls State 102. Kansas City Chiefs: Chase Coffman, TE, Missouri 103. St. Louis Rams: Jason Williams, LB, Western Illinois 104. Cleveland Browns: Mitch King, DT, Iowa 105. Seattle Seahawks: Shonn Greene, RB, Iowa 106. Cincinnati Bengals: Kenny McKinley, WR, South Carolina 107. Jacksonville Jaguars: Richard Quinn, TE, North Carolina 108. Miami Dolphins (from OAK): Scott McKillop, LB, Pittsburgh 109. Green Bay Packers: Ryan Mouton, CB, Hawaii 110. Buffalo Bills: Kevin Barnes, CB, Maryland 111. San Francisco 49ers: Stephen McGee, QB, Texas A&M 112. Houston Texans: Brandon Tate, WR, North Carolina 113. San Diego Chargers: Sammie Lee Hill, Stillman 114. Denver Broncos: Mike Wallace, WR, Ole Miss 115. New York Jets (from WAS): Brad Fletcher, CB, Iowa 116. New Orleans Saints: Cary Harris, CB, USC 117. Dallas Cowboys: J.P. Wilson, QB, Alabama 118. New Orleans Saints (from NYJ): Cecil Newton, C, Tennessee State 119. Chicago Bears: Marko Mitchell, WR, New Mexico 120. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Fenuki Tupou, T, Oregon 121. Buffalo Bills (from PHI): Johnny Knox, WR, Abilene Christian 122. Houston Texans (from MIN): Troy Kropog, G/T, Tulane 123. Baltimore Ravens: Sherrod Martin, CB, Troy 124. New England Patriots: Zack Follett, LB, California 125. Atlanta Falcons: Franz Joseph, LB, Florida Atlantic 126. Oakland Raiders (from MIA): Tyronne Green, G, Auburn 127. Indianapolis Colts: Javon Ringer, RB, Michigan State 128. Carolina Panthers: Rulon Davis, DE, California 129. New York Giants: Ashlee Palmer, LB, Ole Miss 130. Tennessee Titans: Jaimie Thomas, G, Maryland 131. Arizona Cardinals: Mike Goodson, RB, Texas A&M 132. Pittsburgh Steelers: Henry Melton, DE, Texas 133. San Diego Chargers: Jason Watkins, T, Florida 134. San Diego Chargers: Morgan Trent, CB, Michigan 135. Tennessee Titans: Rhett Bomar, QB, Sam Houston State 136. Indianapolis Colts: Brian Hoyer, QB, Michigan State --Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com