Updated: 4/25 - 10:07 AM
It's 6:25 PM on the night before the draft, and the #1 overall pick is still an unknown. This is the most difficult draft to forecast in years, with so many players of comparable ability and value tightly packed into draft ranges.
Since it's a taboo to include potential trades into mock drafts, many times I placed a player into a slot that doesn't necessarily fit with the team currently in that slot. So before you send me emails questioning my sanity (FYI -- I already know I'm crazy), consider that I might be forecasting a trade that changes the team picking in the slot.
I'll be online during the draft to comment on each selection. Check the NFL Draft Forum on the message boards. Even if you aren't a member of RealGM (shame on you!) you'll be able to get my knee-jerk feedback, as well as some of the other strong football minds in the RealGM community.
Click here to view the discussion: NFL Draft Forum
Click here to listen to Jeff on Thursday night's edition of RealGM Radio: April 23rd Episode
Round 1
1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia.
Signed, sealed delivered. This all but guarantees the Lions will go defense with their next two picks, perhaps more.
2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, T, Baylor.
I've stuck to my guns with Eugene Monroe at this spot in every incarnation of the postseason mocks, but numerous sources I respect and trust are saying Smith will be the choice. I worry about his run blocking more than most, but he's ready to start at LT from Day One.
3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest.
The best player in this draft goes third, to a team that desperately needs his overall impact. Note to Todd McShay: there is more to playing OLB in a 3-4 than rushing the passer, and Curry does all those things better than most veterans. It's either Curry or Tyson Jackson, and the scenario where Cleveland takes the one not taken here looks pretty certain.
4. Seattle Seahawks: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC.
It might not be Seattle picking Sanchez here, but I strongly believe the precocious USC signal caller will be the #4 pick in the draft. Frequent readers will note I've held this position much longer than the more prominent pundits.
5. Cleveland Browns: Tyson Jackson, DL, LSU.
Draft-board riser brings his ability to collapse the pocket and versatility to play a variety of spots at a high level. Having Jackson inside should help Kam Wimbley regain his rookie form. I will be very surprised if they don't go defense with this pick.
6. Cincinnati Bengals: Andre Smith, T, Alabama.
Put this pick in Mont Blanc, even with Eugene Monroe on the board. Three months ago Andre Smith was the top player in this draft, and the Bengals have proven they will take a chance on talent with personal warts. Smith is not a bad person by any account, just a na?ve na?f.
7. Oakland Raiders: Jeremy Maclin, KR/WR, Missouri.
I don't discount the Heyward-Bey rumors, but Maclin is just a little faster and that gets him the apple in Al Davis' eye. I do believe they would take Andre Smith if he somehow falls.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Eugene Monroe, T, Virginia.
Concerns about his knee cause Monroe to slide out of the top 5, but the Jaguars would be ecstatic to get him. Anthony Munoz had questionable knees too. This pick is clearly for sale, and Monroe or B.J. Raji would be worthy targets. This is the floor for the top two QBs.
9. Green Bay Packers: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College.
Dom Capers needs a legit nose tackle to make his 3-4 defense work, and Raji fits the bill perfectly. His ability to get into the backfield and make plays make this a no-brainer. If he's gone, this pick will be either Malcolm Jenkins or one of the above OTs that would fall.
10. San Francisco 49ers: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech.
Not their biggest need, but this is another case where the player available is simply too good to pass up. If Crabtree goes to OAK, I believe the Niners would take Michael Oher here. I've heard from people who would know that they are not Josh Freeman fans.
11. Buffalo Bills: Michael Oher, T, Ole Miss..
After trading Jason Peters, this pick immediately locked into a tackle. I've heard that the Bills really like Oher and would have considered taking him here even with Peters still on the team. If Oher is gone I would speculate they take a reach on Brandon Pettigrew here.
12. Denver Broncos: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas.
This is assuming they don't trade up to get Sanchez (I put those odds at about 66%). Their defense needs an extreme makeover, and Orakpo can play either OLB or DE capably in the mold of Jason Taylor.
It is at this point of the draft where you really should forget about the team picking in the slot and focus on the player going in that slot instead. Some matches work out both ways, but I'm largely fixated on choosing the player/slot more than the team/player for the next 30 picks.
13. Washington Redskins: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee.
The Skins are desperate for defensive playmakers, and Ayers offers the ability to pressure the QB and force mistakes. Aaron Maybin or Clay Matthews would not surprise me here either.
14. New Orleans Saints: Chris ?Beanie? Wells, RB, Ohio State.
Reliable people who would know have reported that Coach Payton is smitten with the talented but somewhat difficult Wells. He has the potential to more than fill Deuce McAllister's shoes as the power back that would allow them to convert a 3rd down and short without going to 4 WRs, but Wells has earned the knock that he has to be 100% physically or else he shuts it down. As I said in the last edition, their need for a CB is drastically overstated.
15. Houston Texans: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State.
The Texans would take about 10 seconds to get the card with Jenkins' name up to the Commish in this scenario. For all criticism of Jenkins maybe being a better safety than corner, the same could have been said about Rod Woodson.
16. San Diego Chargers: Eben Britton, T, Arizona.
See the comment above #13, though the Chargers certainly could use a tackle of his caliber. Britton's ability to play either side adds value and makes him a trade target in this range.
17. New York Jets: Brian Cushing, LB, USC.
Not their biggest need, but I just see Cushing right in this range and the Jets sure seem hellbent on trading up for a QB. Cushing has the ability to play next to David Harris inside, which is an area of concern. Gil Brandt let it slip they are not Heyward-Bey fans, and Mr. Brandt does not write fiction.
18. Denver Broncos (from CHI): Rey Maualuga, LB, USC.
This is a critical spot for Maualuga, because if he doesn't go here he likely drops to at least #25. He fits best as a 3-4 ILB that allows him to do what he does best -- seek and destroy between the tackles and not worry about anything outside the hash marks, where he is a liability. Two NFL front office people I greatly respect believe Maualuga will fall into the 30s, for what it's worth.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State.
I'm not sold that the Bucs want a QB, but I think their potential for taking one will make any team that wants to rescue Freeman deal up and take him here.
20. Detroit Lions (from DAL): Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss.
New coach Jim Schwartz knows the value of a physical D-lineman that can threaten in the backfield. I've heard rumblings that if Curry goes #1, this pick is headed to Cleveland for Brady Quinn, but that's just some other "insider's" guess. That same insider told me about the Shaun Rogers and Roy Williams trades well before they happened, so I don't discount it.
21. Philadelphia Eagles: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia.
Another pick where it makes too much sense, and it's hard to envision Moreno falling much lower than this. Once again, I'm shooting for player/slot accuracy more than team/player.
22. Minnesota Vikings: Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
I actually have a strong inkling they are going to take Phil Loadholt with this pick. Smith represents the more rational viewpoint, but don't be surprised to see the Vikings take the Oklahoma tackle somewhere before their scheduled 2nd round pick.
23. New England Patriots: Everette Brown, DE, Florida State.
He would fill a need, and many folks have Brown rated in the top 15 overall prospects. That kind of value gets him targeted in this range, and the Pats could very well deal up, perhaps way up.
24. Atlanta Falcons: Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois.
The Falcons sorely need a counterbalance to Jon Abraham, and English has the ability to fit at a variety of spots. Or this pick will be traded to a team targeting English.
25. Miami Dolphins: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut.
Real tough choice between Butler and Brian Cushing, but I get the sense Butler has more value than Cushing, who is not a great pass rusher as an outside LB.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State.
This is probably too low, and I admittedly have a giant bias against him. The Ravens make sense as he can learn from Terrell Suggs, who is essentially the best-case outcome for Maybin and will hit free agency next year.
27. Indianapolis Colts: James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State.
Baby Animal is a perfect fit in the middle of a base Cover-2 defense, and he adds size and snarl to a defense badly in need of both. They would love if Jerry fell here. His floor is the Lions pick at #33.
28. Buffalo Bills (from PHI via CAR): Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech.
The booty for Jason Peters is a pass rusher with incredible potential, but very real questions. Teams tend to take more risks with acquired picks, and I'm shamelessly applying that school of thought here. He also makes sense as a trade target in this range.
29. New York Giants: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland.
This is assuming they don't deal for Boldin or Edwards and still need a downfield big-play threat. DHB certainly fits that bill, but like Edwards he suffers from bouts of dropsies and inconsistency.
30. Tennessee Titans: Clay Matthews, LB, USC.
Jeff Fisher is a USC guy, and this franchise benefitted from his uncle Bruce, the best lineman of the last 25 years in my opinion. His late emergence onto the scene holds back his value just enough for him to fall here.
31. Arizona Cardinals: Connor Barwin, OLB, Cincinnati.
I think the depth at RB allows the Cards to focus on replenishing the defensive depth. Barwin's versatility and athletic potential are invaluable to a team like the Cards that run a variety of defensive looks. They can use his red zone TE skills too.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Alex Mack, C, California.
It's not often the Steelers need a center, and Mack is a Steeler kind of player. He has the ability to play G if needed, and the Steelers need that too.
Round 2
33. Detroit Lions: Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan
34. New England Patriots (from KC): Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut
35. St. Louis Rams: Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State
36. Seattle Seahawks: William Beatty, T, Connecticut
37. Cleveland Browns: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
38. Cincinnati Bengals: Eric Wood, C, Louisville
39. Jacksonville Jaguars: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
40. Oakland Raiders: Phil Loadholt, T, Oklahoma
41. Green Bay Packers: Clint Sintim, LB, Virginia
42. San Francisco 49ers: Fili Moala, DT, USC
43. Buffalo Bills: Evander ?Ziggy? Hood, DT, Missouri
44. Miami Dolphins (from WAS): Cornelius Ingram, TE, Florida
45. New York Giants (from NO): Max Unger, G/C, Oregon
46. Houston Texans: Cody Brown, LB, Connecticut
47. New England Patriots (from SD): Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma
48. Denver Broncos: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
49. Chicago Bears: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina
50. Cleveland Browns (from TB): LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh
51. Dallas Cowboys: Ron Brace, DT, Boston College
52. New York Jets: Jarron Gilbert, DT, San Jose State
53. Philadelphia Eagles: Jared Cook, TE, South Carolina
54. Minnesota Vikings: Mike Thomas, WR, Arizona
55. Atlanta Falcons: Marcus Freeman, LB, Ohio State
56. Miami Dolphins: Asher Allen, CB, Georgia
57. Baltimore Ravens: Percy Harvin, WR/ATH, Florida
58. New England Patriots: Patrick Chung, S, Oregon
59. Carolina Panthers: Paul Kruger, DE, Utah
60. New York Giants: William Moore, S, Missouri
61. Indianapolis Colts: Sen?Derrick Marks, DT, Auburn
62. Tennessee Titans: Ramses Barden, WR, Cal Poly
63. Arizona Cardinals: Rashad Jennings, RB, Liberty
64. Pittsburgh Steelers: Sean Smith, CB, Utah
Round 3
65. Detroit Lions: Kraig Urbik, G/T, Wisconsin
66. St. Louis Rams: D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt
67. Kansas City Chiefs: T.J. Lang, T, Eastern Michigan
68. Seattle Seahawks: Derrick Williams, WR, Penn State
69. Dallas Cowboys (from CLE): Darcel McBath, S, Texas Tech
70. Cincinnati Bengals: Lawrence Sidbury, DE, Richmond
71. Oakland Raiders: Alex Magee, DT, Purdue
72. Jacksonville Jaguars: Cedric Peerman, RB, Virginia
73. Green Bay Packers: Jamon Meredith, T/G, South Carolina
74. San Francisco 49ers: Coye Francies, CB, San Jose State
75. Buffalo Bills: Pat White, QB, West Virginia
76. New York Jets (from NO): Jairus Byrd, CB, Oregon
77. Houston Texans: Michael Bennett, DE, Texas Tech
78. San Diego Chargers: Jonathan Luigs, C/G, Arkansas
79. Denver Broncos: Roy Miller, DT, Texas
80. Washington Redskins: Gerald Cadogan, T, Penn State
81. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Donald Washington, CB, Ohio State
82. Detroit Lions (from DAL): Shawn Nelson, TE, Southern Miss
83. Green Bay Packers (from NYJ): Chip Vaughn, S, Wake Forest
84. Denver Broncos (from CHI): Andy Levitre, G, Oregon State
85. Philadelphia Eagles: Louis Murphy, WR, Florida
86. Minnesota Vikings: Mohammad Massaquoi, WR, Georgia
87. Miami Dolphins: Herman Johnson, G, LSU
88. Baltimore Ravens: Dorrell Scott, DT, Georgia Tech
89. New England Patriots: James Casey, TE/HB, Rice
90. Atlanta Falcons: Mike Mickens, CB, Cincinnati
91. New York Giants: Darry Beckwith, LB, LSU
92. Indianapolis Colts: Jarrett Dillard, WR, Rice
93. Carolina Panthers: Christopher Owens, CB, San Jose State
94. Tennessee Titans: Kyle Moore, DE, USC
95. Arizona Cardinals: Antoine Caldwell, C, Alabama
96. Pittsburgh Steelers: Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Oklahoma
97. New England Patriots: Tyrone McKenzie, LB, South Florida
98. Cincinnati Bengals: Glen Coffee, RB, Alabama
99. Chicago Bears: Deangelo Smith, DB, Cincinnati
100. New York Giants: Austin Collie, WR, BYU
Round 4
101. Dallas Cowboys (from DET): Ladarius Webb, CB, Nicholls State
102. Kansas City Chiefs: Chase Coffman, TE, Missouri
103. St. Louis Rams: Jason Williams, LB, Western Illinois
104. Cleveland Browns: Mitch King, DT, Iowa
105. Seattle Seahawks: Shonn Greene, RB, Iowa
106. Cincinnati Bengals: Kenny McKinley, WR, South Carolina
107. Jacksonville Jaguars: Richard Quinn, TE, North Carolina
108. Miami Dolphins (from OAK): Scott McKillop, LB, Pittsburgh
109. Green Bay Packers: Ryan Mouton, CB, Hawaii
110. Buffalo Bills: Kevin Barnes, CB, Maryland
111. San Francisco 49ers: Stephen McGee, QB, Texas A&M
112. Houston Texans: Brandon Tate, WR, North Carolina
113. San Diego Chargers: Sammie Lee Hill, Stillman
114. Denver Broncos: Mike Wallace, WR, Ole Miss
115. New York Jets (from WAS): Brad Fletcher, CB, Iowa
116. New Orleans Saints: Cary Harris, CB, USC
117. Dallas Cowboys: J.P. Wilson, QB, Alabama
118. New Orleans Saints (from NYJ): Cecil Newton, C, Tennessee State
119. Chicago Bears: Marko Mitchell, WR, New Mexico
120. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Fenuki Tupou, T, Oregon
121. Buffalo Bills (from PHI): Johnny Knox, WR, Abilene Christian
122. Houston Texans (from MIN): Troy Kropog, G/T, Tulane
123. Baltimore Ravens: Sherrod Martin, CB, Troy
124. New England Patriots: Zack Follett, LB, California
125. Atlanta Falcons: Franz Joseph, LB, Florida Atlantic
126. Oakland Raiders (from MIA): Tyronne Green, G, Auburn
127. Indianapolis Colts: Javon Ringer, RB, Michigan State
128. Carolina Panthers: Rulon Davis, DE, California
129. New York Giants: Ashlee Palmer, LB, Ole Miss
130. Tennessee Titans: Jaimie Thomas, G, Maryland
131. Arizona Cardinals: Mike Goodson, RB, Texas A&M
132. Pittsburgh Steelers: Henry Melton, DE, Texas
133. San Diego Chargers: Jason Watkins, T, Florida
134. San Diego Chargers: Morgan Trent, CB, Michigan
135. Tennessee Titans: Rhett Bomar, QB, Sam Houston State
136. Indianapolis Colts: Brian Hoyer, QB, Michigan State
--Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
2009 NFL Mock Draft, Version 9.0 (Draft Eve)