For many NFL fans this is the best weekend of the year. Despite the small slate of just four games, the eight remaining teams almost always provide competitive matchups; every team left has proven enough to argue they can win this game, and perhaps another one or two. Last week my virtual colleague Andrew Perna and I split the games, each going 2-2 though we picked differently. This week it looks as though we?re going to have the same record again, because we agree on all four games. The RealGM planets are aligned! San Diego at Pittsburgh The Chargers are playing with a great deal of confidence and purpose in their 5-game winning streak, and that gives them a real shot in Pittsburgh. But I really favor the home team here, for four reasons: 1. James Harrison, the Defensive Player of the Year Unlike a lot of other prolific sack artists, Harrison also racks up tackles and is good enough to be considered a run specialist. He has a unique advantage against Darren Sproles, the water bug-like RB for San Diego: Harrison is short too, and that means Sproles won?t get lost so easily to Harrison. 2. The home field itself Heinz Field is the very definition of sloppy track, and the Chargers are not mudders. Sproles in particular relies heavily on sharp cuts, balance, and quickly accelerating out of cuts. That won?t be easy on the snow-moistened loose turf. It also mitigates the Chargers decided advantage in special teams. 3. San Diego didn?t really play all that well in beating Indy last week The only reasons they won were punter Mike Scifres and favorable treatment from the officials. Scifres is a great punter, but expecting him to nail six punts downed inside the 20 again is foolhardy. The first meeting featured a dramatic discrepancy in penalties: 13 for Pittsburgh, two for San Diego. Don?t expect a replication of that in Pittsburgh in the playoffs. 4. Ben Roethlisberger?s mobility San Diego?s defense brings the heat quite well, but Big Ben is the best at toughing out the rush and making plays downfield under duress. The first guy almost never brings him down, and Big Ben has enough speed to hold the LB or safety assigned to containment. That opens up those routes behind them, and Hines Ward and Nate Washington thrive in that realm. The Chargers secondary is prone to losing guys in the gaps, and that?s precisely where the Steelers passing game lives. San Diego certainly could pull it off, because the Steelers are turnover prone and struggle on special teams. But I?m pretty sold on Pittsburgh in this one. Steelers 23, Chargers 17. Baltimore at Tennessee Be forewarned: this is the longest game preview I?ve ever written, probably because I am fascinated by this matchup! Baltimore proved last weekend that if an offense cannot stretch the field vertically, they have no chance for success against the Ravens complex defense. Rex Ryan dared Miami to throw over the top and across the middle, and Chad Pennington simply couldn?t beat Ed Reed & Co. I?m not sold on Kerry Collins and the Titans middling WR cast to fare any better. Collins has better arm strength but lacks the accuracy, and he is a QB who will stare down a receiver from time to time. That is a real problem against perhaps the best ball-hawking defense in NFL history--the Ravens had a record (unofficial as it?s not an official stat) 10 different defenders break up at least five passes. They bring tremendous pressure from all over, but what I think is the most underrated facet of their defense is how well Baltimore covers that pressure, because they know they can trust the guys in coverage all over the defense. It certainly won?t help Tennessee that stalwart C Kevin Mawae is going to miss the game (ruled out as of Wed. night). Baltimore?s exotic pressure schemes require all hands on deck, and Mawae is the savvy vet responsible for all the line calls and adjustments. He?s also the best run blocker on the interior, and that will be missed as well. Ravens NT Haloti Ngata can dominate for stretches in the interior with his bulk and quickness. Just when you start devoting help on Ngata, here comes Ray Lewis and Jarrett Johnson filling the holes hard. So it would seem to be lights out for Tennessee right? Not so fast, my friend! The Titans still have a pretty decent OL even without Mawae, and they also have lightning-fast rookie RB Chris Johnson. Where Johnson presents problems for the Ravens is with his receiving ability out of the backfield. Tennessee does an exemplary job of not tipping off their screens or misdirection plays, and that can catch the Ravens in overpursuit and leave them vulnerable to Johnson?s speed. Their WRs lack sizzle but they bring lots of the steak of fundamentals, in terms of blocking, precision of routes, positional geometry. The Titans also feature a pretty darn good defense of their own. It is that Titans defense that holds the key to the game for me. Baltimore?s offense is a tough one to defend, because they can sledgehammer the run with Leron McClain and Willis McGahee, and they can also expand the field with Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason. Mason doesn?t get deep very often, but he?s among the best at getting himself open and presenting a target for Joe Flacco. The attitude of Coach Harbaugh, that it?s okay if Flacco only hits on one out of five attempts downfield, that is troublesome for the defense. Baltimore was 3rd in the league in yards per first down snap, and Tennessee ranked #1 in yards allowed per 1st down snap through the first 14 weeks (they wound up 3rd, behind Pittsburgh and Minnesota). If the Titans can hold the line on 1st down and force some 3rd and longs, their speed and playmaking ability in the back seven of their own defense is good enough to win this game for Tennessee. Albert Haynesworth appear to be close to 100%; at the least he?s well-rested and anxious for some combat. He is as good as any defensive player in the league when he?s physically and mentally right. But to me the key guys are the defensive ends, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Jevon Kearse, Dave Ball, and Jacob Ford. Baltimore?s line is strong inside but vulnerable on the edges, and those DEs must be able to set a hard edge against the run while also pressuring Flacco and not letting those downfield plays set up. Vanden Bosch is a Pro Bowl talent but has been slowed by injuries lately, and they sorely need his elite pass rushing skills. The linebackers are strong and swift, but the Ravens have (wisely) gone back to featuring TE Todd Heap in the passing game downfield more, which pulls an LB back and keeps a safety occupied. If the pass rush is consistent, Tennessee can shut that off and really stymie the Ravens offense. I?m expecting a physical field-position battle punctuated by a few big plays. That begs the question: which team has better playmakers? I?ll take Chris Johnson?s speed paired with a QB who has tasted the Super Bowl before over Leron McClain and a rookie gunslinger. Not many teams can match Baltimore?s defensive playmakers, but Cortland Finnegan, Chris Hope, and the Pro Bowlers up front stack up well for the Titans. I also like that the home team is well-rested, whereas the Ravens are facing a short week (they played Sun., this game is Sat.). Tennessee 20, Baltimore 16. Arizona at Carolina These teams met earlier this season, and the Cardinals are claiming loads of confidence in their ability to win based on that game, a comeback 27-23 Panthers victory. I see it differently, however. That game illustrates why the Cards are destined for ?one-and-done? playoff status. In that game, the Cards raced out to a 17-7 lead midway thru the 3rd quarter. They did so almost exclusively by throwing the football, and it actually could have been a bigger lead--they failed on a fake FG on 4th and 15 from the Carolina 21 yard line just before halftime. But the Panthers started to figure out what the Cardinals were doing, both offensively and defensively. Carolina scored every time they got the ball in the second half, save the final drive, where they successfully milked the final 6 minutes. How did that happen? The short answer is that the Cardinals offense can only go full speed, and that really taxes the defense when the offense isn?t successful. Their inability to run and the high risk/reward passing style inhibits Arizona from holding a lead and eating up clock. Against a team like Carolina, which can strike offensively with both the run (DeAngelo Williams) and the pass (Steve Smith), that is a death sentence. Last week the Cardinals showed some ability to pound and grind, so that gives me some pause that perhaps they can pull it off. But I don?t expect their defense to have the same kind of success against a very physical, tough Panthers OL that they did against a limited group for Atlanta. The potential is there and the talent is there, but I just don?t think Darnell Dockett & Co. have the stamina to hold up on the field for over 35 minutes. I also like the adjustments the Panthers D made against Kurt Warner, dropping LBs and disguising coverage schemes better. Arizona is loaded with firepower, even if Anquan Bolden is slowed or out via injury, but they are a team that doesn?t change what they do or even try to hide what they?re going to do; they dare you to try and stop it. Carolina calls that dare and lays down the hard truth--the Panthers are simply the better overall team. Carolina 33, Arizona 24. Philadelphia at New York Giants This game has endless hype along the East Coast, and with good reason. It?s a divisional grudge match between two very talented, playoff-tested teams that know each other inside out. My attempt to sift thru the hype machine and tell you what I believe tilts this game towards the defending champs: --The Eagles have proven wildly inconsistent for no apparent rhyme or reason. I predicted that would bite them last week. Count me impressed but not convinced they can do it again. --The Giants offense knows the defense they are facing. Even without Plaxico, they have the ability to pick up the blitzes and make plays down the field. --The rested return of Brandon Jacobs, an X factor the Eagles really don?t have an answer for. --New York is used to adversity and knows how to handle success. Philly has certain pieces that haven?t always held up in the forge of intensity, and this team twice blew golden opportunities to better their lot this season. The Giants are good enough, even on a day where they only have their ?B? game, to weather a team that makes too many mistakes. These Eagles make too many for me to have any sort of confidence they can play error-free for 60 minutes. Giants win, 31-20. Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com