It was a great Sunday in the NFL, with several dogfights between playoff contenders and a couple of upsets that proved my forecasts correct. It was nice to get back to actual football on the field after the disgusting Joe Paterno/Penn State scandal dominated the football landscape for the past week. $.01-- Hey Falcons coach Mike Smith, it’s 4th and 1 at your own 30 in overtime. You have to win the game to have any realistic chance to win your division, and the Saints have played tough up-the-gut defense most of the game. Your own defense has been decent against Drew Brees, and you have the home crowd and field position in your favor. Punt the ball away. Smith chose to go, and with it went Atlanta’s chances of winning the NFC South. The Saints easily stuffed Michael Turner, then put the game on the foot of one of the few NFL players older than me, John Kasay. He made the 26-yarder and gave the Saints a two-game lead plus the tiebreaker with Atlanta. This loss is all on Coach Smith, and he deserves every bit of criticism he is going to get. NFL coaches that want to keep their jobs punt that ball 999 times out of 1000. The only other time I can recall a coach trying such an asinine move was Bill Belichick, and his Pats lost because of that. Normally, I like to try and concoct my own words, but I think my friend High 5 from the RealGM NFL message board summed it up perfectly: “You have Michael freaking Turner, you get a 2nd and 2, a 3rd and 2, and a 3rd and 1 in OT and refuse to hand it off. Then you wait until the Saints sell out on a 4th and inches to finally run back and give it to him. So dumb.” Smith also channelled Andy Reid with his horrible clock management towards the end of the first half. After escaping the shadow of their own goal post with a minute to go, a long Harry Douglas reception put the Falcons in prime position to score. But with no timeouts, Smith decided to run the ball with Jacquizz Rogers. Between the run and the scramble to kill the clock, 13 precious seconds ticked off. That left time for just one shot at a touchdown from inside the Saints 30. Matt Ryan held the ball far too long on the next snap before throwing it offline towards #4 receiver Eric Weems and not Julio Jones or Roddy White or even Harry Douglas, who had a fantastic game. Matt Bryant then missed the field goal and the Saints ran into the locker room with momentum and a lead. Poor decisions throughout cost the Falcons this game and Mike Smith had better have some thick skin and keen sense of personal responsibility for his Monday press conference. $.02-- Pittsburgh scored a huge win, heading into the jungle and knocking off the Bengals 24-17 in a tightly played contest. Coupled with Baltimore’s choke job in Seattle, this win over prior leader Cincinnati puts the Steelers back on top of the AFC North as they head into their ridiculously late bye week. It was not an easy win. The youthful Bengals were game for the challenge, but Pittsburgh finally got back to playing the kind of ball that epitomizes Steelers football the past few seasons. The Steeler defense stepped up and forced two critical turnovers, something they have struggled to do all year. They pestered Andy Dalton into several offline throws and played very good defense on first down. That left the Bengals with too many 2nd and 9s and 3rd and longs, exactly what the Steelers love. Ben Roethlisberger made several clutch throws under heavy duress, most notably a pair of third and long conversions in the first half. The first was a red zone rocket to Heath Miller which set up the second touchdown. The second is where I felt like the game, and perhaps the AFC North, was decided. After the Bengals had closed to 14-10 and pinned Pittsburgh back to 3rd and 19 inside their own 20 yard line, Big Ben rifled a ball between three rapidly closing defenders to Antonio Brown for the conversion. That kept what became a very long drive alive, resulting in a field goal that pushed out the lead and left no time for the Bengals to answer before halftime. The Bengals had all the momentum at that point, but Big Ben’s strong arm and clutch nature seized control of the game back for the Steelers. It won’t go down as one of the most talked about plays; it might not even make the highlight shows because it came before halftime on a drive that “only” resulted in a field goal. But the 3rd and 19 conversion inside their own 20 was the play where this game was decided. Force a punt there and the Bengals get the ball back with decent field position and time to make things happen before halftime, keeping their surging momentum rolling. Playing at home with a young upstart team, the Bengals were poised to really fire up the crowd and take control of the game. Big Ben prevented that with a great throw, and that’s why he belongs on the short list of best signal callers in the game today. Bengals fans shouldn’t take the loss too hard. The defense made some plays, notching five sacks and picking off a pass. Ced Benson and Bernard Scott ran the ball for more than 4 yards per carry and combined for over 100 yards against the Steel Curtain. The Dalton-to-AJ Green rookie connection hooked up for another long and spectacular touchdown. Even in the loss, I feel like the Bengals acquitted themselves pretty well. This team shouldn’t go away as they face the sharp teeth of their schedule, though losing top CB Leon Hall is a real blow. Marvin Lewis has molded a tough, balanced team that should stay in the thick of the AFC playoff race and the highly competitive AFC North. $.03-- Even though it’s only Week 10, we have a very good idea how the NFC playoff picture is going to look. After San Francisco took care of the Giants, it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Niners and Packers will be the top two seeds and earn byes. Those two teams could very well combine for 30 wins. The Saints are a safe bet to wind up as the No. 3 seed, hosting one Wild Card game. The East champ, which will be decided in the two upcoming games between the 6-3 Giants and 5-4 Cowboys, will get another spot. The Wild Cards will be sifted out between Chicago, Atlanta, the #2 team in the East, and perhaps Detroit if they find a tourniquet (more on that later). The Niners/Giants game was the first real test for just how good San Francisco really is, and they aced the exam. I am more impressed that it was a game that went down to the wire and the Niners hung on than if they would have won in a blowout, because it showed they can close out a tough game against a strong opponent with a clutch quarterback. That quarterback, Eli Manning, nearly pulled another rabbit out of his hat. But the criminally underappreciated Justin Smith spiked down a 4th down pass in the red zone to seal the victory. When the Niners needed to make a big play to win the game, they did just that. To me, that speaks volumes about the validity of the surprising 49ers. This had the feel of a playoff game all day long. The intensity was high, the defenses controlled early, and some unexpected heroes made big plays. San Francisco corner Carlos Rogers is best known for his almost comedic inability to catch the ball, but he secured two interceptions off Manning. Diminutive rookie running back Kendall Hunter broke off a long touchdown run in place of an injured Frank Gore. Second banana tight end Delanie Walker was Alex Smith’s target du jour, not Vernon Davis or Michael Crabtree. That depth of talent also speaks volumes about where San Francisco is as a playoff contender. On a day when their Pro Bowl running back got zero yards, their Pro Bowl tight end was largely bottled up, their top wideout caught just one of the four throws in his direction, and their pass rush was largely negated, San Francisco still found a way to beat a good Giants team. They should wear that 8-1 record proudly, because this game proved it is legitimate. $.04-- A day after the three most prominent Texas college football teams all lost in various forms of incompetent embarrassment, the NFL teams from Texas more than picked up the slack. Both the Cowboys and Texans won in dominant fashion, with Dallas punishing the sliding Bills 44-7 and Houston humiliating the sliding Bucs 37-9. These two games were both over very quickly. Tony Romo completed his first 13 passes against a Bills defense that is overly reliant on trying to pick off every pass instead of actually covering anyone. At halftime Romo was 17-for-18 for 237 yards and three touchdowns, throwing with so much time he could have worn his goofy backwards ball cap instead of his helmet without risk. Buffalo receivers struggled all day to get separation from the Dallas secondary, and Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick continued his struggles since signing a lucrative contract extension. Once again rookie RB Demarco Murray attacked big holes and pounded out over 100 efficient yards. This is the kind of game that Dallas fans believe their team should play every week, a tantalizing teaser where they dominate in all phases and look like a legit contender. It gives them legit life in chasing down the Giants in the thin NFC East and proves that if they eventually make the playoffs, they are as dangerous as last year’s Packers unit that squeaked in before getting red hot. Houston didn’t win quite as lopsided on the scoreboard, but their game was effectively over after the first play from scrimmage, an 80-yard touchdown pass from Matt Schaub to Jacoby Jones. Once again the Bucs offense came out completely unready to play, a very disturbing trend that should be getting more notoriety. The Texans offered no mercy, running around, over, and through some truly egregious tackling efforts. The Arian Foster/Ben Tate combo is the best one-two punch in the league, running behind the best run blocking offensive line in the league. Perhaps more pertinent is the Texans defense, which now ranks #1 in yards per game and opposing first downs per game and second in scoring defense. Houston ranked 29th, 31st, and 29th in those respective categories a year ago, but the real stunner is opposing QB rating. Last year the Texans finished dead last, allowing a QB rating of over 100, just the fourth team in NFL history to do so. This year they rank 1st, that’s right, first in the league by allowing an aggregate 63.1 QB rating. That number dips to below 45 over the last month. Considering the team has played without top weapon Andre Johnson for most of the season and is still humming along nicely, the balanced Texans are a real threat to win multiple playoff games. They’ll certainly be hosting at least one. $.05-- Chicago took sweet revenge upon the Lions with an easy 37-13 home win, a victory that puts the Bears atop the NFC Wild Card standings. It was a game marred by some truly atrocious officiating, several ugly Detroit turnovers, and yet another baffling set of opportunities for Devin Hester to work his magic. Let me be clear: the officiating did not decide this game. In fact, the officials missed several calls that favored Detroit. But it was very difficult to watch some of the calls, or lack thereof, in this one. It started with the first Lions turnover, a Calvin Johnson fumble forced by a Julius Peppers clothesline to the neck where his other hand went under Johnson’s facemask. It escalated with Ndamukong Suh ripping Jay Cutler’s helmet off on a scramble. Neither was flagged. There were several missed holds (including defensive), hands to the face, and chop blocks (the one eventually called on Dominic Raiola was at least his third) and the players frequently crossed the line between playing hard and street fighting. I’m trying hard to decipher whether this game says more about the surging Bears or the rapidly declining Lions. I’m inclined to go with Detroit, as this marks their third loss in four outings, none of which have been pretty. The regression of Matt Stafford from cocksure gunslinger to timid spray-gunner is very alarming. Detroit has lost to every good team they’ve played, save the first Bears game and the Dallas game, a contest they trailed 27-3 before the Cowboys decided to give the game to the Lions. The record stands at 6-3 but the cold reality is this Detroit team plays like a 4-5 team with control issues and a growing QB problem. The defense is still solid, as the scoring output by Chicago was greatly augmented by two pick sixes and yet another Devin Hester punt return touchdown. But wildly inconsistent offense and consistently lousy special teams are going to doom this Detroit team. They started out 5-0 and rose up to 6-2, but they will need to dramatically improve to wind up any better than 8-8. $.06-- New England announced to the world that the AFC East is still their domain, and showed the Jets how to rip the soul out of a visiting stadium. In a game that the Jets internally framed as their most important regular season game ever, New England stomped all over New York as the Jets committed miscue after gaffe after careless play. I was stunned at the mistakes from New York. The game appeared too big for them, and though I’ve been a critic of Rex Ryan in the past, I largely give him a pass here for his team’s sloppy play. It’s hard to blame the coach for a muffed punt by Joe McKnight (subbing for injured Jeremy Kerley), the play on which the game turned. He wasn’t the quarterback staring down his receiver before throwing a changeup-speed fastball right to Pats LB Rob Ninkovich. Ryan wasn’t the man responsible for his safeties (mainly Jim Leonhard, quickly approaching most overrated player status) repeatedly losing Rob Gronkowski in coverage. He can’t be held culpable for Pro Bowl left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson getting used and abused by Andre Carter for a Patriots record 4.5 sacks, more than doubling his season output. The Patriots were simply and quite clearly the better, more talented team. You can slam Bill Belichick for a lot of things, but he understands better than any coach how to twist in the knife when the opponent is most vulnerable. Even though this is just one loss and the Jets are very much alive in the crowded AFC playoff race, the pall surrounding this loss for New York feels like a hopeless death march to oblivion. It will be interesting to see how Ryan gets his troops to respond to this devastating defeat, as they go from facing heralded Tom Brady to a Thursday night trip to Denver to face the surging Broncos and their Chosen One. $.07-- Tim Tebow is now 3-1 as a starter this year. Excuse me while I cleanse the vomit from my shoes. Tebow is proof that NFL games are not won with style points or aesthetics, but I suspect he doesn’t really care. I know the Denver faithful couldn’t care less that Tebow completed just two throws in this game, or that he went almost an entire 60 minutes of game action without a completion. Tebow just wins, baby. I alluded to it in my game forecast, talking about how difficult of a matchup he presents for a defense because he legitimately runs the option very well and most NFL defensive coordinators haven’t seen anyone try that in decades. They can’t even practice against it, and with the state of tackling as endemically terrible as it is, it makes a Tebow-centric offense very dangerous. Tebow is a physical runner that can absorb contact but has nifty enough feet to dodge the kill shot. The Broncos have a stable of runners that appear to be interchangeably effective running with Tebow. Just don’t ask them to throw the ball. They didn’t even try in this game, as Tebow attempted just eight throws. One of those two completions was a long touchdown to Eric Decker, a play which highlighted the one thing Tebow does well as a passer: going down the field on play action. Lance Ball is not the best running back in Denver, but the injury replacement sells the play action just as well as Tebow does. It really is a nightmare for safeties, who are rightfully focused on where Tebow might run and where the running back is heading. Doubters take heed: it is time to start taking this whole Tebow-as-a-starter thing seriously. While this offense may be a primitive gimmick, it’s an effective one in the short term. And while defensive coordinators scramble to concoct schemes to slow down the middle school offense that renders cover corners largely pointless, Tebow continues to get all the practice reps to hone his passing and pocket skills. I’m not saying he can become even a good passer before teams start playing a modified Buddy Ryan 46 defense against him, but this little run has bought Tebow more precious time to develop. He’s already learned to protect the ball more effectively, and on his few attempts he showed a tighter motion with a higher release point. Oh yeah, it has also allowed the Tebow legend to grow and has the Broncos just one game back in the tightly packed AFC West. $.08--5 NFL Quickies: 1. The Colts lost their best remaining chance at a victory, going down at home 17-3 to Jacksonville. In an act of pure desperation, Colts Coach Jim Caldwell yanked Curtis Painter for Dan Orlovsky. It didn’t help. The Colts had just two drives that entered Jaguars territory and got five of their twelve first downs on a garbage-time drive. Their only credible chance at a win comes in their next game, hosting Carolina after their bye next week. I am not optimistic. 2. Even though the MRI said nothing is wrong with Cam Newton’s shoulder, something was clearly amiss with the Panthers rookie against Tennessee. The Titans deserve credit for playing very well in coverage and generating consistent pressure, but Newton’s throws lacked their usual authority. Nice win for the Titans as they try to cling to playoff aspirations. And was that a Chris Johnson sighting?!? 3. New Orleans has lost every coin toss they’ve been involved in this season. That is incredible. It also shows how little winning the coin toss matters. For what it’s worth, three of the last four teams to win the overtime coin toss have lost the game. So much for all that hot air from a year ago… 4. St. Louis won in Cleveland when freakishly reliable Browns long snapper Ryan Pontbriand clanked the ball off Alex Mack on the potential game winning field goal. It threw off freakishly reliable kicker Phil Dawson, who landed his plant foot about a full step too close to the ball and shanked it. Once 3-3, the Browns have now lost three in a row thanks to an offense that has scored exactly two touchdowns before halftime all season, and none since Week 5. One bright spot for the Browns: rookie defensive tackle Phil Taylor, who recorded another sack (his 4th) and looks more like B.J. Raji every week. 5. Arizona won in Philadelphia, an outcome that probably should have surprised me more than it did. When the news broke that Desean Jackson was deactivated for missing a team meeting, I knew the Eagles were in trouble. There is indeed a great deal of talent in Philly, but they have zero chemistry and no leadership whatsoever. I won’t pile on here because a game between two 3-6 teams just doesn’t merit any more attention. $.09--College/Draft Quickies: -- TCU wiped out Boise State from the BCS race, an outcome that leaves the Houston Cougars as the only non-BCS school with a shot at playing in a BCS bowl. Houston has scored at least seven offensive touchdowns six weeks in a row, led by Coach Kevin Sumlin’s creative offense and the remarkable arm and vision of quarterback Case Keenum. I’ve seen the Cougars play three times, I’ve been to a handful of practices, and I’ll be in attendance next Saturday when they rout SMU something like 62-28. They are not as good as any of the recent BCS crashers, but Keenum and the offense will challenge any defense in an entertaining fashion. -- Oregon wiped out Stanford as well, leaving a clear path for the only two remaining BCS undefeated teams, LSU and Oklahoma State. Of those two, the Cowboys were more impressive in pasting Texas Tech--which beat rival Oklahoma for the Sooners’ only loss--by a 66-6 margin. LSU trudged through a 42-9 win over lowly (but improving) Western Kentucky, a game they led only 14-7 at halftime. OSU QB Brandon Weeden did his best Case Keenum impersonation, throwing for 423 yards and five touchdowns. If these two stay undefeated, and they should, there is your national title game. -- Let me paint an alternate scenario here: Oklahoma loses at Baylor next week but then knocks off Oklahoma State; Arkansas beats LSU to win the SEC West but loses to Georgia in the SEC title game; USC beats Oregon next week; South Carolina beats Clemson, but then the Tigers beat Virginia Tech (again) in the ACC title game. The #1 team in the BCS rankings would be Alabama, a team that will finish 3rd in the SEC West and lost at home to a team that also didn’t win the same division. Their opponent could be any of a cavalcade of teams with recent losses, probably Oklahoma State in this scenario. No way in hell would I watch that game and provide justification for the continuing madness, and unless you have Roll Tide tattooed somewhere you shouldn’t watch it either. -- Got a chance to break down some film of Ohio State tackle Mike Adams, and I am more bullish than expected on his NFL potential. He demonstrates excellent feet for such a big man (he’s 6’8” and around 325 pounds), able to shuffle and mirror against speed on the edge and also able to get out in front of the run game. Adams has shown better aggression this season, perhaps trying to take out frustration for being involved in TattooGate. He will still lean over his feet when blocking to his inside shoulder, and his punch can be too high. But he has proven he can handle NFL talent, as he largely erased two 2011 first rounders, JJ Watt and Adrian Clayborn, in games last year. He reminds me of a young Bryant McKinnie, a left tackle with great length and good feet that is a better run blocker than pass protector that has occasional lapses. Thankfully this Buckeye fan didn’t see one second of the loss to Purdue, and I don’t care to either. -- Thanks to all for the feedback on the recent Top 103 and Mock Draft 2.0. One of the recurring questions involves the running backs, or lack thereof. The short answer is that I believe teams now value that position lower than any other and loathe to spend early picks on anyone that isn’t regarded a special talent. Trent Richardson has that tag in this class, and nobody else is close. There are several backs I like more than my ranking and mock draft would indicate, but with so many lightly regarded runners having significantly more NFL success than their highly touted--and highly compensated--compatriots, I absolutely anticipate a huge gulf between Richardson (a legit top 15 pick) and the next tier. LaMichael James, Lamar Miller, Vick Ballard, Chris Polk and some others are all very likely to wait much longer than anticipated to hear their names called in April. $.10-- Three drafts ago, there were three quarterbacks selected in the first round. Matt Stafford went #1 overall to Detroit, Mark Sanchez went #5 to the Jets, and Tampa picked Josh Freeman at #17. All three have lifted their teams and provided real optimism and hope going forward almost from the first time they stepped on the field. But in their third seasons, all three are crashing back to earth and are playing worse than at any time in their respective careers. Stafford is the greenest of the three thanks to a couple of injuries, but that excuse is no longer acceptable. His inability to handle pressure or deliver the ball with consistent accuracy and pace appears to be getting worse by the week. Stafford still makes a handful of throws every week that keep the hope glimmering, but it’s truly all or nothing with Stafford; he’s either making an exceptional throw or a terrible one. His somewhat gaudy numbers obscure his erratic performances, particularly over the last month. He has the best weaponry of the trio but the least grasp on how to properly utilize them. The Sanchize has tasted the most success, though even his biggest supporters are starting to wonder if he is ever going to “get it”. The completion rate and yards per attempt have gradually ticked upward, but Sanchez still posts below-average numbers despite having a good line, a decent running game to support him, and a competent receiving corps that includes the dynamic Santonio Holmes. At this point the Jets are basically asking him to just not lose games, not exactly the kind of return on investment you hope for from a top-five quarterback. Against the Patriots this week and the Raiders earlier this year, his poor play almost singlehandedly cost them potential victories. Freeman is perhaps the most frustrating. He had a fantastic breakout season in 2010, emerging as the heady leader of a rogue group of disparate, often-troubled group of young men that shocked the world by finishing with 10 wins and narrowly missing a playoff berth in a year where the odds makers set the season over/under win total at 4.5. This season Freeman has been largely awful except for a few very impressive fourth quarters. Nine touchdowns against 13 interceptions is a radical falloff from last year’s 25 TDs and 6 INTs, all accomplished with the same receiving corps and less pressure from the opposing pass rush. Freeman often appears disinterested in the game and continues to play awful in the first quarter, where his 38.2 QB rating is dead last among qualifiers. I find it fascinating that all three of these highly promising quarterbacks have all apparently hit the same wall at the same time. Normally you hear about a sophomore slump after the rookie wall, but these guys were all superior players as both rookies and second year starters. This is the year where these three should all be making the giant stride forward. To put it in perspective, last season’s third year QBs were Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, both of whom blossomed with very impressive seasons that demonstrated legit growth and professional progress. It is still premature to write off Stafford, Sanchez, or Freeman, but their ineffective play and lack of progress in their third seasons is very troubling going forward for their franchises.