Last Week: 7-7 in a weekend that defined the term ?any given Sunday?. Overall season mark is at 53-35. Some significant developments have gone down in the last few days, from major upsets to a big trade and Pacman?s suspension. Quick thoughts: A big part of the reason for so many ?any given Sunday? upsets is that this is the part of the season where the stratification between the haves and have-nots sets in, and when some ?haves? see a ?have-not? on the schedule, they let up even a little. The margin between the good and the bad is real small, and if the good teams don?t respect that, it can be real ugly. Ask the Redskins and Vikings, even though Minnesota escaped with a referee?s gift victory over the Lions. Major kudos to the Lions for pulling the trigger on the Roy Williams-to-Dallas deal. Stockpiling draft picks is the recipe for rebuilding success, and the Lions got very good value picks in return for Williams. He will help the Cowboys right now, and Jerry Jones wisely mortgaged those picks in order to try and salvage his 2008 Super Bowl dreams. A healthy, motivated Roy Williams gives them a very strong complement to TO and a great red zone target. Williams was almost certainly going to be a Cowboy in 2009, and picking him up now makes sense, even though the price in both draft picks and Roy?s fresh extension is real high. Jerry Jones had to roll the dice in part because his gamble on Pacman Jones failed. I hope and pray this troubled loser has exhausted every ounce of good will he?ll ever be extended. Good riddance to the worst example of NFL character this side of Darryl Henley. It?s that kind of negative karma that is going to doom these Cowboys. When you make a deal with the devil, it never ends the way you anticipated. Just watch ?Reaper?, if the wonks at the CW ever come to their senses and put it back on the air. Bright and Sunny Games New Orleans (15) at Carolina (8): Thus far this season, the only team that I have correctly forecast every week is the Panthers. I?m also 5-1 in picking Saints games, so I believe I have a pretty good read on these teams. The book on this one: New Orleans makes too many dumb mistakes, be it turnovers or coverage gaffes, to handle a Panthers team that probably can?t tell you the score of last week?s embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay. They have moved on that quickly, and Jake Delhomme has made a career out of strong bounce-back games. Their ongoing 3rd down struggles concern me, but the Saints are 3rd worst in committing 3rd down penalties. Carolina holds on in what should be an entertaining affair, 27-24. San Diego (16) at Buffalo (9): Real good barometer for both these teams. Buffalo has played a cupcake schedule in tallying their 4 wins. When they faced JAX the Jaguars were missing 3 OL and both starting WRs and Buffalo barely won, and the roadie to Arizona resulted in disaster. In comes the Chargers, who either thoroughly dominate a game or can?t get out of their own way and blow close ones. Buffalo has the two abilities that have been problematic for San Diego thus far--good secondary play and a patient, efficient offense. This is the start of a real long road trip for the Chargers, as they travel from Buffalo to London to play the Saints next week. That is a lot to think about and puts tremendous pressure on them to win this game to maintain positive momentum and energy. So far this season I have not liked what I?ve seen when San Diego is pressured. Expect a huge day from Lee Evans as the Bills beat the Chargers 30-24. Denver (14) at New England (13): Matt Cassel is taking a lot of the heat for the offensive problems in New England, but I believe the bigger problem is their inability to consistently threaten defenses with the run. Their OL does not run block well, and their RBs have a bad tendency to run into the blockers, not the holes. Witness their 2.9 YPC on 1st down over the last 3 games and their inability to break big carries, as they have a league-low 6 rushes for more than 10 yards. Fortunately for the Patriots, Denver?s run defense is consistently awful. The Broncos try to bolster it by bringing up safeties and asking a lot of their CBs in run support, but that means Randy Moss and Wes Welker get less coverage attention. But the Patriots secondary has major coverage issues of their own, and their LB play, the key component of a 3-4 defense, has not been up to snuff. This one looks like it will come down to which offense can execute key 4th quarter drives, and I trust Jay Cutler more than Matt Cassel. Denver in a mild upset, 35-34. Seasonably Mild Games Indianapolis (5) at Green Bay (20): The Packers season is in very real danger of being completely scuttled by injuries. So many key components are either out or walking wounded that this is not the same team the Cheeseheads anticipated. The relative weakness at G-C-G in Green Bay should help the Colts lousy run defense. What also helps the Colts is that Peyton Manning is back on top of his game, and he and his receivers are back in synch. This is one of those ?something?s gotta give? games; the Packers are great at home against the AFC, but the Colts have won 10 of their last 13 roadies against NFC teams. The favored forecast model indicates that what gives in this one is the Packers inability to run the ball against the Colts heretofore porous run D. Colts 27, Packers 25. Cleveland (19) at Washington (10): Before last week?s games, this looked like a cakewalk for the Redskins. But the Skins lost to lowly St. Louis and the Browns snapped out of their offensive funk and pounded the undefeated Giants. The manner in which Cleveland accomplished that bodes real well for their future; the offensive line was dominant against the premier DL in the league, and Derek Anderson finally looked comfortable going through his route progressions. I just get the feeling the Skins have peaked already, while the Browns are finally showing the testicular fortitude we all thought they?d have. Getting Kellen Winslow back will only add to that fortitude, but K2 isn?t likely to play. That means more balls for Steve Heiden and Darnell Dinkins, both of whom played very well on MNF. I might be a sucker for reading too much into last week, but I think we saw the true colors of both teams. Cleveland 28, Washington 20. Minnesota (21) at Chicago (22): This game could very well decide the fate of the NFC North. The Bears DL has not played well, and they could be missing both starting CBs. Vikings QB Gus Frerotte has developed a nice chemistry with WR Bernard Berrian, and he?s looked very sharp when he?s had time. Of course, the Vikings OL was terrible last week and they lost the game to Detroit, except the referees didn?t want that to happen. Am I a little bitter? The most favorable matchup is the Vikings pass defense against the Bears offense, even though Kyle Orton has played reasonably well. Unless the Bears can get something going with their depth receivers like Rashied Davis (quietly having a nice season) and Marty Booker, Orton is going to struggle with Jared Allen breathing down his neck. Vikings seize control of the NFC North (no, Packer fans, I?m not forgetting about you; your team is too banged up to hang with either combatant) thanks to their defense. Minnesota 20, Chicago 17. Cool and Breezy Games Dallas (11) at St. Louis (29): Team Chaos rolls into St. Louis to face a rejuvenated Rams team liberated from the inept tyranny of deposed coach Scott Linehan. Jerry Jones says ?Bah! Let them eat cake!? The Cowboys had better bring their ?A? game, because the Rams actually match up pretty well in terms of being able to exploit the Dallas weaknesses (plodding OL, poor pass rush, bad ILB discipline, decimated secondary). But the Cowboys still have Marion Barber, and the addition of Roy Williams should create huge opportunities for Jason Witten. Even a completely washed-up Brad Johnson, whose arm strength during his last playing stint made Chad Pennington look like Jay Cutler, can pick apart the Rams dreadful secondary. Take the Rams and the points, but the Cowboys win 26-20. Baltimore (18) at Miami (24): This game boils down to whether the Ravens? spotty passing game can find success against the Dolphins? spotty pass defense. Being able to use TE Todd Heap for something other than pass protection would surely help that cause, but Joey Porter has been playing too well to not give greenhorn LT Jared Gaither the extra help. Not having the only guy on the team who can cover anyone, CB Will Allen, will really hurt Miami. Bet the under in this one. Baltimore wins 13-10 as the Ravens show the league how to defense the Wildcat formation. Seattle (27) at Tampa Bay (4): The shocking decline of the Seahawks should be a much bigger national story than it is. The combination of injuries, brutal play by the secondary, and an alarming inability to force turnovers have thus far doomed Seattle. Though Tampa is one of the few Eastern locales where they have fared well recently, this Bucs team is playing too well to lose to a backup QB throwing to backups. Don?t expect the domination of last week against Carolina, but the Bucs can ride the wave of the good Jeff Garcia another week. Bucs 27, Seahawks 17. January in Duluth Games Tennessee (1) at Kansas City (31): All the ingredients for a surprise upset are in place: tough road location, underdog coming off a bye week, veteran QB taking over to stabilize the offense and control turnovers, strong running game potential. But the Titans are also coming off a bye week, and Jeff Fisher won?t let his team look past the rebuilding Chiefs. Titans win 20-9. San Francisco (26) at NY Giants (2): Pray for Niners QB JT O?Sullivan, because the Giants D has a lot of pent-up frustration to take out on him, and the Niners OL has surrendered QB pressures on 122 of his 193 dropbacks. Giants 33, Niners 6. Detroit (32) at Houston (25): The posters on Lions message boards have long circled this game as the best remaining chance for a victory in 2008. That may be, but the order just got taller with the aforementioned Williams deal and with Jon Kitna placed on IR. Dan Orlovsky takes over at QB, and he showed both promise and glaring inexperience in the heartbreaking loss to the Vikings. If the Lions D plays the way they did last week, they?ll pick up a convincing win, but it has to play that way for 60 full minutes. Houston showed a lot of gumption with their comeback win over the Dolphins, and the final drive and winning TD call (brilliant move, Coach Kubiak!) are the kinds of things that can spur momentum. Both these teams turn the ball over at alarming rates, but it?s hard to imagine Matt Schaub being more careless than Orlovsky. Houston somehow ekes out a 19-17 victory. Pittsburgh (3) at Cincinnati (30): No Carson Palmer equals no upset victory. Great week to use Pittsburgh?s defense in salary cap fantasy games. Steelers roll 27-10. NY Jets (23) at Oakland (28): In the past couple of weeks I?ve ignored strong guttural instincts and picked the more logical winner. Not this time. Based on nothing more than what might be heartburn from too much coffee and changing too many dirty diapers, Oakland wins 20-17. Bye Week: Atlanta (17), Arizona (6), Philadelphia (7), Jacksonville (12) Drinking in the Dorm Room Games Last Week: 3-2, tipping the season record to 22-10. Just score picks this week. You students should be studying for mid-terms! - Ohio State 26, Michigan State 24 - Oklahoma 39, Kansas 27 - Missouri 33, Texas 30 - Georgia 24, Vanderbilt 10 - Central Michigan 27, Western Michigan 24 [email protected]