Consider this a quick five cents on what I’m feeling about the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft, which kicks off in less than two weeks.

I think there’s more risk than advertised with Arvell Reese

I like Reese, the Ohio State linebacker who appears fated to be a top-5 overall pick. He’s a common projection for the New York Jets at No. 2 overall and that pairing makes a lot of sense. 

Reese is going that high based on projection that he’ll become an elite pass rusher. That’s something he’s never been in his football life. Reese managed just seven sacks in 30 games over the last two seasons. That’s more about Ohio State’s ridiculous defensive depth and his positional usage than Reese’s considerable physical talents, no doubt. However, the Jets or any other NFL team will be demanding that Reese instantly develop into a pass-rushing dynamo. 

Reese is an outstanding outside linebacker in a hybrid role. As a full-time pass rusher, he dramatically undersized at 243 pounds on his short-armed (32.5-inch arms on a 6-4 guy is proportionally short arms) frame. He’s barely played the role. He told a podcast recently that he’s never really worked on any pass rush moves. 

Think about that for a second. Just as he’s learning a new position, one that doesn’t necessarily play to his considerable physical talents, his opponents are getting significantly bigger/faster/stronger. They’re also learning Reese’s game, strengths and weaknesses as he learns how to play a more full-time EDGE role--which is the presumption for taking him so highly. Because if a team desires more off-ball LB skills in the top 10, they’re taking his Buckeye running mate, Sonny Styles. By the way, Styles matched Reese’s sack total in 2024-25 despite aligning much less frequently as an EDGE-style OLB. Oh yeah, his arms are longer and Styles ( a converted safety) weighs a little more too. 

Reese can become a unique type of defensive weapon. The athletic talent is there, and by all accounts he is coachable and offers a high football IQ. But in two seasons of playing defense at Ohio State, Reese wasn’t as good in space as Styles as a backer, and he’s completely green and largely unproductive as an EDGE. There’s more of a leap of faith going on here than I ever see being mentioned. 

Where is the consternation about his lack of bulk to play close to the line? Where is the worry about his short arms, or lack of production, or the acknowledgement that he played on a loaded OSU unit that afforded him to make mistakes and learn on the fly, a luxury he won’t get in the NFL?

And yet, in this class, I still completely understand and endorse Reese as a top-10 pick--even with all those concerns. That’s more about the top of this draft class than Reese, though. 

I think it will be a buyer’s market for first-round trades

That lack of surefire, blue-chip, All-Pro caliber potential talent at the top will send teams picking after the Raiders at No. 1 scurrying to their phones to try and trade back. Even more than in most drafts, the urge to move back, acquire extra picks and hopefully extract more value will be the norm in 2026. 

If everyone is selling, that makes it a great time to buy. That’s true in real estate, cars and commodities. I expect the desire of so many teams to try and trade out of high picks will open a real opportunity for a team looking to jump up for a specific target. 

Just as a hypothetical example, let’s say a team picking in the 15-24 overall range wants to jump into the top 7 to make sure they land Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love, the draft’s clear-cut RB1. The rationale here is that Love’s perceived draft floor is Washington at 7, so any team wanting to land Love will need to jump the Commanders. Cleveland at No. 6 is a useful hypothetical partner here. 

The Browns would typically ask for that first-rounder, a Day 2 pick and Day 3 pick (2nd round and 6th round, or 3rd and 4th packaged together), plus a 2027 first-round pick in return. Cleveland would send back a pick somewhere in the 75-125 overall range either this year or next year to balance it, too. 

But finding an elusive buyer for that pick, when no other teams above them have been able to move back, means the Browns (again, just a hypothetical example here) would likely sell the pick for less than that typical expectation. It might only take the first-round swap and one other pick this year, plus next year’s first, due to the desperation of getting a deal done at all. The buyer could rightly posit to Cleveland that Washington, which is no lock to take Love, would be willing to make that deal and there’s no reason to pay more to Cleveland. 

First rule of making a deal: you don’t ask, you don’t get. The buyers, not the sellers, should have the power of asking on their side in the early part of the 2026 Draft. 

I think the offensive tackle draft sequence is fascinatingly unpredictable

Francis Mauigoa. Monroe Freeling. Spencer Fano. Kadyn Proctor. Caleb Lomu. Blake Miller. Max Iheanachor. I expect all seven to be first-round picks. All have first-round worthy qualities and long-term starting potential, no doubt about it. 

All also have at least one legitimate drawback that might make an OT-needy team have real pause at taking them over the others. For Mauigoa, it’s arm length and run game range. Freeling is green and shows some balance issues. Fano has arm length and power concerns. Proctor has battled weight issues and has some eye-popping whiffs. Lomu plays too tall and light. Miller’s hands need work and he’s RT-only. Iheanachor remains much better in theory than on film at this point. 

What does that mean for the sequence? Great question. Nothing would surprise me, especially with Proctor and Freeling. I can see each being the first offensive player not named Fernando Mendoza to be drafted. I can also just as easily see either of them not being selected until the 20s. To quote Megadeth, 

In a dream I cannot see

Tangled abstract fallacy

Random turmoil builds in me

I'm addicted, addicted to the chaos

I think two specific players are going much higher than currently projected

Toledo safety Emmanuel McNeill-Warren is currently the No. 23 overall player on consensus big boards. Based on what I’ve heard from the Combine through now, I’ll be surprised if he’s still on the board five picks earlier. It could very well be 10-12 picks earlier. EMW (his scouting parlance) has rare size and movement skills, and everyone suddenly wants the next Nick Emmanwori. That’s not really who EMW is, but that doesn’t mean NFL teams won’t try anyway. 

The other is UCF pass rusher Malachi Lawrence. He’s effectively the player that the team selecting Arvell Reese in the top 5 hopes Reese becomes already. The buzz on him in the pro day circuit immediately after the Combine, which Lawrence set on fire with his elite athleticism, is not something I’m going to ignore. I think he goes in the top 25 and he’s currently in the mid-40s in most every consensus big board and most mock draft projections. 

I think two specific QBs are going much higher than projected

Along those same lines, Garrett Nussmeier and Drew Allar might both currently sit outside the top 100 in consensus big boards. Both have enough aspirational tape, traits, and injury issues to help explain the decline from preseason first-round projections for QB-needy teams to justify taking them in the second round. 

Nussmeier has the better case, in my opinion. The oblique injury that hindered him throughout 2025 at LSU appeared fully healed during Senior Bowl week. Those questions about his arm strength abated. There are still some drawbacks to his decision-making, but Nussmeier’s healthy tape offers a real, viable glimpse at an NFL starter. I think he’ll be drafted as such, somewhere in the top 60. 

Allar missed most of Penn State’s underwhelming 2025 with a leg injury. He’s straight out of central casting for quarterbacks from a bygone but not irrelevant era--a big, strong-armed gunslinger who can make difficult throws from the pocket look routine. I’m not an Allar believer at all; he’s not in my top 150 players. But I think he’s going to hear his name called on Draft Friday night, perhaps in the first half of that night.