Last week: 8-5, pushing the season forecast to a mostly sunny 80-55

This week’s games feature another potential clunker on Thursday night, a game in Germany, and four AFC teams with winning records all on byes.

Thursday Night

- Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+2.5): Baker Mayfield is back in the starting lineup for Carolina. Just a strange hunch here, but I think we’re due for one of those games where Baker reminds everyone he was a No. 1 overall pick and an effective QB and leader. They just don’t happen nearly often enough for the Progressive pitchman.

Panthers 23, Falcons 20

Sunday Games

- Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa BayBuccaneers (-3.5) in Munich: I smell a real chance for some value betting here. Seattle is 6-3, Tampa Bay is 4-5. The Bucs needed every last second to beat a bad Rams team last week, while Seattle has comfortably pasted three better teams than that by at least double digits in as many weeks. The legend of Tom Brady and the ghost of past accomplishment isn’t enough to beat a better football team with a secondary that’s playing as well as any.

Seahawks 29, Buccaneers 21

- Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-3.5): Forecasts don’t get cloudier than when a leading MVP candidate is questionable for a game on Thursday afternoon, but that’s where we are with Josh Allen and the Bills. Most pundits seem to believe, as of 72 hours from the game, that it will be Case Keenum under center for the Bills against the 7-1 Vikings. I might pick the Vikings and Kirk Cousins regardless, but the mostly cloudy prospects for Allen make it a sunny day for Minnesota--even if the Buffalo weather will be overcast and in the 30s. So the game might be too…

Vikings 31, Bills 27

- Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9): The Jaguars defense is probably better than you think it is, and rookie LB Devin Lloyd is a definite building block. They just need more of him to handle a dialed-in Patrick Mahomes and a Chiefs offensive line that is getting more cohesive by the week.

Chiefs 26, Jaguars 16

- Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5): Justin Fields set the NFL record for rushing yards by a quarterback in last week’s game, and now he draws the Lions--the NFL’s worst overall defense. But the Detroit D has quietly upticked of late, and the unreliability of Fields to find any passing targets beyond Cole Kmet or Darnell Mooney should allow the Lions improving secondary to help more on Fields. The Lions win if Jared Goff avoids takeaways and the team kicks FGs on 4th downs instead of going and failing--which they’ve done 11 of their last 13 fourth-down attempts.

Bears 27, Lions 24

- Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-3.5): The rested Browns come off the bye hungry to climb back into the AFC playoff race. And I like their chances, at least offensively. Miami doesn’t tackle well, and nobody makes bad tacklers pay more than Nick Chubb. The problem for Cleveland is the Browns’ inconsistent secondary. It doesn’t take much for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to exploit mistakes and convert them into points. Myles Garrett can only do so much up front. Don’t be surprised if the Browns come out and blow the doors off Miami, but don’t bet on it either. I’m not…

Dolphins 33, Browns 30

- Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-2.5): Hey Mike Vrabel. You see that big guy wearing No. 22 in a Titans uniform? You know, the NFL’s leading rusher. Yeah, him. Maybe play him in the fourth quarter of a close game and not turn the outcome over to the hands of a greenhorn rookie QB who couldn’t successfully throw against Army last year. Do that and I promise you’ll win against Denver.

Titans 22, Broncos 17

- Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5): The first game of the (checks notes) Jeff Saturday regime. Wait, what? The guy from tv? He’s coaching the Colts?! And his offensive coordinator is who? With some Ehlinger dude at QB?

Lots more on this game and this week in Indianapolis in the $.10 feature coming Monday. It’ll be better than this game.

Raiders 24, Colts 12

- Houston Texans at New York Giants (-5): The Giants have been really good at pulling out close games under rookie head coach Brian Daboll. New York fans probably don’t like the idea of being in a close game against Houston, the NFL’s only team with fewer than two wins, but the Texans aren’t that kind of a bad team. This one is a good barometer to see if the Giants should still be a good team at 6-2.

Giants 28, Texans 24

- New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh  Steelers (+2): You know things are going bad for the Steelers when they come off a bye, are at home and are still underdogs to a bad Saints team. Pittsburgh has scored more than 20 points in a game just once all year, and that was in Week 1. They average under 12 ppg in the last four. New Orleans brings in an up-and-down defense but one that has done well against one-dimensional offenses like Pittsburgh’s.

Saints 20, Steelers 13

- Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5): A bad year for the defending champs gets even worse with QB Matthew Stafford almost certain to miss this important NFC West matchup with a concussion. Not that Stafford was playing particularly well, but there’s a definite dropoff to John Wolford--especially throwing to exactly one NFL-caliber wideout. Granted Cooper Kupp is fantastic, but there just isn’t enough for the Rams to overcome the Cardinals without a lot of help from Arizona itself. Now consider that no team is worse at creating pressure on the opposing QB than the one with Aaron Donald as the centerpiece.

Cardinals 30. Rams 20

- Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (+4.5): This is a great chance, perhaps the first time in the 21st century, where picking against the Packers at home as the survivor fantasy pick seems like a heady choice. Smoke ‘em if you’ve got ‘em with Dallas. Based on the Packers team I watched last week, it’s not even going to be close.

Cowboys 32, Packers 12

- Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5): It’s the time of year where we all start to make Christmas wish lists and gift suggestions. I told my wife I want, among other things, a purple Dodge Charger. I know I won’t get it, of course, but I’m not going to get upset by not having a Charger help me win at Christmas. These Chargers, the Los Angeles edition, stand a better chance of making sparks fly under the mistletoe.

Chargers 24, 49ers 21

Monday Night

Commanders at Eagles (-10): In what way can the Commanders embarrass themselves and the NFL at large on this day? Tune in and find out!

Eagles 31, Commanders 18

College Games

Alabama 30, Ole Miss 28

Michigan 58, Nebraska 12

Louisville 28, Clemson 21

Tulane 37, UCF 35

Oregon 43, Washington State 32

Texas 33, TCU 31