A nice burst of record-high warmth has taken root in the Midwest, and it took over my football predictions last week as well. 12-4 on the week, nudging the season percentage back over 65%. Sadly, our warm weather is about to come to a drastic end, as it has already for much of the west and northern border states. This cold spell and likelihood of some snow will extend deep into the southeast, which could play a significant factor in games in Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Washington. Hopefully my forecasting stays hot for another week. College football season is basically over, so I will no longer have the crutch of picking a ?drinking in the dorm room? game, which I missed just once in 6 tries. I?ve been devouring tons of collegiate games and film in preparation for Bowl season and the upcoming draft, so keep your eyes peeled here for a Bowl prediction and for the latest mock draft. And if you?re in a dorm room and compelled to drink, remember that life is too short to drink lousy beer. Sunny Games Baltimore at Cincinnati Now that the Bengals appear to have finally shaken the mid-season doldrums, this shapes up as a great matchup. Both teams pitched shutouts against divisional opponents last week, the Bengals 1st shutout since 1989 but the Ravens 2nd of the season. Cincinnati has rediscovered the opportunism on defense, forcing 9 turnovers and nearly tripling their QB pressures in their last two games. They also rediscovered Carson Palmer to Chad Johnson with record results, scoring over 100 points in the last 3 games. I really like how Baltimore is attacking offensively, exploiting defensive weaknesses and playing with the swagger you normally associate with their early 00?s defense. FB Ovie Mughelli has taken a more prominent role and he?s a load to handle. The Bengals have three starting OL listed as questionable or worse, while the Ravens are getting healthier and showing off their depth. I?ve gone back and forth on this game, but the one thing that always lingers in my mind is this: Can Cincy?s OL handle the dogs and blitzes and speed of the Ravens defense? I think they?ll have some success but not enough. Baltimore 38, Cincinnati 27. Dallas at New York Giants For the record: I predicted the Giants would degenerate into a finger-pointing, leaderless, spectacular mess way back in late July. Frankly I?m surprised it took this long, but the G-Men have just about hit critical mass meltdown. Also for the record: I was wrong about switching to Tony Romo as the full-time Cowboys QB. He struggled in his first action against the Giants in a memorable game, but that was a vastly different Giants defense, one that could generate pressure and at least show some semblance of pass coverage. Since then Romo has been outstanding even with TO dropping several key balls. New York coach Tom Coughlin should have yanked QB Eli Manning two weeks ago during a miserable performance, and Eli threw a game away last week with a terrible throw that a competent high school QB knows not to attempt. This is the Giants? last shot at salvaging their season, but it?s a real bad time to face the improving Cowboys and their speedy, relatively healthy defense. If the Giants get the home crowd behind them early with a 10 point lead and a turnover or two, they?ve got a great chance. But I like the Cowboys in this one, in part because Bill Parcells has always been very good at kicking a team when they?re down. Dallas 27, New York 17. Seattle at Denver Denver makes a QB change to rookie Jay Cutler, a move that strikes me as a sign of panic. Former starter Jake Plummer wasn?t playing well, but he?s been better than Eli Manning or Rex Grossman the past month, and those guys helm playoff contenders as well. Midseason QB shuffling not based on injury is rarely a good idea in terms of current season success, although it typically does bear fruit during the first game after the switch. Seattle?s defense makes the move more of a headscratcher, as they apply heavy pressure from all angles and cover screens and draws as well as anyone, and Plummer is far more mobile than Cutler. Seattle is getting healthier, though C Robbie Tobeck will miss this game. I think they found their mojo last week with Shaun Alexander running wild and Matt Hasselbeck taking some hits and still playing pretty well after his early 1st half miscues. I?d take the Seahawks in a heartbeat if the game was in Seattle, but Denver at home in a game they have to win is real hard to pick against. It should be cold, which means Seattle?s receivers (namely Jerramy Stevens and Darrell Jackson) will likely drop at least 5 balls, often at the most inopportune times. That unreliability and my unending respect for Broncos CB Champ Bailey and S John Lynch tilt the scales. Denver 30, Seattle 27. Party Cloudy but Pleasant Games Jacksonville at Miami I?ve always found it intriguing that Miami, despite being about 200 miles south of Jacksonville, remains in the AFC East while the Jaguars play in the South division. The loser of this game is pretty much eliminated from any playoff shot, and the Dolphins have been playing much better lately than the Jaguars. Miami continues to let Joey Harrington throw the ball all over the field, and with RB Ronnie Brown doubtful, he?ll have to play well once again. Jacksonville?s defense is remarkable, top 5 in run, pass, and scoring defense. How they manage to have such a strong pass defense despite being near the bottom in sacks and pressures and not having an exceptional secondary is very impressive. They should be healthy enough this week that rookie CB Dee Webb won?t have to play much, which is a positive. QB David Garrard has the requisite mobility to escape the strong Dolphins pass rush, and Miami?s solid run defense hasn?t fared as well against two-headed RB combos like the Jags feature. These teams appear fairly evenly matched, which means the game is likely to come down to turnovers and special teams. Jacksonville is better in both counts, though their offense is wildly inconsistent. This is a gambler?s trap game, but I?m not going to buy into the seemingly inferior team being favored. I?ve seen enough of Joey Harrington to know that when the going gets good, he?s going to go bad sooner than later. Jacksonville 20, Miami 10. San Diego at Buffalo San Diego gets superb LB Shawne Merriman back, and after last week?s uninspiring win over the hapless Raiders, it?s clear the Chargers need the jolt. Buffalo has run defense issues that are exacerbated when the opponent uses a fulltime FB in the running game. The Chargers have the best blocking FB of the Super Bowl era in Lorenzo Neal, and the best RB of the era in Ladanian Tomlinson. The Bills pass defense relies on pressure from their front and at shutting down the other teams? #1 WR. San Diego doesn?t really have a #1 WR, and they are 5th in the league in allowing QB pressures, so the Bills are going to have to play over their heads to stay afloat. QB JP Losman made one of the best throws I?ve ever seen to set up the winning FG last week, and it?s clear the offense is starting to believe in him more each week. His heroics will be needed again if the Bills are to have any shot in this game, because the Chargers special teams won?t collapse like Jacksonville?s did last week against Buffalo. I don?t think Tomlinson will score more than twice, but it will be enough. San Diego 24, Buffalo 13. Indianapolis at Tennessee The Titans typically play the Colts tough, and now that Tennessee has established a very strong running game (3rd in the NFL over the last 4 games), they should pose even more of a threat to Indy and their awful run defense. The problem for Tennessee is their own defense, which ranks 24th or worse in every statistical category, most notably 31st in red zone defense and 30th in 3rd and long conversions. They don?t generate much of a pass rush and don?t blitz very well. Pacman Jones is one of the best cover corners in the league, but he?s not able to cover both Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison while Peyton Manning has time to survey the field. The Titans will have some success, as the Colts defense is last in 3rd down conversions and ranks 27th in pressures per pass attempt. All signs point to a high-scoring game, and typically when there is heavy action on the ?over?, it winds up being a defensive struggle. Against my better judgment in terms of score but not outcome, I?ll take the Colts 24-16 but I won?t be surprised if both teams double those point totals. Minnesota at Chicago It?s going to be quite cold and windy in Chicago for a rematch game in which the Bears squeaked a 19-16 victory the first time around. A lot of fingers in Chicago are pointing to Rex Grossman as the reason why the mighty Bears suddenly look beatable, but it was only a matter of time before defenses adjusted to his gunslinging style. The Bears offense is suited for quick strikes and big plays, not sustained drives. But their WRs and RBs aren?t skilled enough to deliver against disciplined defenses, and Grossman?s rapidly declining accuracy (just under 47% the last 4 games) makes it that much harder. In short, their offensive scheme isn?t helping their struggling QB. Minnesota gives up passing yards by the bushel, but it?s a deceiving statistic; last week Arizona ran just 6 times, and the Vikings yards per carry run defense is just 2.8, by far the best in the league. Teams have to throw early and often to have any success. Even though they give up lots of catches, the Vikings secondary is more talented than the Bears receiving corps. So long as the Vikings OL hangs in there against a very aggressive Chicago front 4, the Vikes have an excellent chance to win. That?s a tall order, though, and despite a decline in his numbers (thanks to constant double-teams) DT Tommie Harris is still one of the very best in the NFL. This game is either going to be a defensive struggle that the Vikings pull out, or the Bears go +3 in turnovers, score a defensive TD or kick return for TD and clinch the worst division in football in a rout. I?m inclined to go with the former and I?ll take the Vikings in the upset, 20-17. Cold November Rain Games Carolina at Philadelphia I?ve been a frequent critic of Eagles QB Jeff Garcia and his limp arm, but I actually like his skill set against this Panthers defense. Because he doesn?t even try to look downfield and still has good mobility and accuracy while on the run, he negates the strong pass rush by the Carolina front and forces their corners to make tackles and play shallower than they like. Carolina laid a major egg last week, unable to generate any offensive momentum. That?s actually nothing new for them as they struggle with a constantly shuffling OL and inconsistent running game. The Panthers are dead last in 3rd down conversions, 31st in yards per 1st down snap, and haven?t had a drive in which they strung together more than 3 1st downs in 3 weeks. The Eagles front seven has major issues against the run, and they no doubt commit a safety fulltime to helping with WR Steve Smith, the only real threat for the Panthers. Carolina is 6-3 with a healthy Smith, but it?s time to curb the enthusiasm in Charlotte, as injuries have changed this from a Super Bowl contender to a team that is going to struggle every week to win. The Panthers have had a great week of practice, but I have a feeling that a proud Philly team will circle the wagons at home under the spotlight of Monday night. I?ll take the Eagles in a shocker, 20-17. New York Jets at Green Bay Ahh, Lambeau Field in December, cold and snowy, fried cheese bites and spiked hot chocolate, defiantly sleeveless linemen and steam bursts when players shed their helmets. That?s football, folks! And this is a better game than it might first appear. Both teams feature impressive young offensive linemen, each starting at least two rookies up front. The one matchup that stands out as a distinct advantage: Packers WRs Donald Driver and Greg Jennings and the deep passing game against a Jets secondary that breaks down when the pass rush is struggling. The Packers have secondary woes of their own, but their pass rush and LBs in coverage are both better than their Jets counterparts. And who would you rather have throwing 22-yard deep ins or sideline fly patterns: Brett Favre or Chad Pennington? You would choose Favre, and I will choose the Packers, despite the fact they?ve been bad at home and the Jets a strong road team. Green Bay 27, New York 20. Kansas City at Cleveland I need to clear up a popular national misconception about the Braylon Edwards-Charlie Frye incident last week: Edwards was not going after Frye, but rather at the OL and offensive coordinator and Frye just happened to be in his way. Edwards, coach Romeo Crennel, Frye, and SI?s great insider Peter King all reiterated that from the get-go. Yet I keep seeing on ESPN and hearing on all sorts of radio shows that Edwards was furious at Frye and it shows how Frye isn?t the answer at QB for the Browns. That may be so, but it wasn?t just because of last week?s horrible performance or the sideline incident. Kansas City has gone very conservative since QB Trent Green returned, and it?s worked. RB Larry Johnson is getting tons of carries and K Lawrence Tynes is kicking lots of FGs, while the Chiefs defense keeps improving. There?s a good chance of snow on the field and a stiff Lake Erie breeze, but that shouldn?t hurt the Chiefs, who haven?t needed to throw deep in weeks and shouldn?t have to once again. The Browns will play better, but the better team is clearly KC. Chiefs 20, Browns 13. Atlanta at Washington Washington looks somewhat rejuvenated behind new QB Jason Campbell, as rejuvenated as a 4-7 team missing its best player (RB Clinton Portis) can be. They tweaked their blocking scheme and simplified some of the pass routes to help Campbell, and the whole offense looks much more comfortable and cohesive. Atlanta?s issues are well-chronicled with Vick?s Dirty Bird and the defensive injuries during their 4-game bender, but there is another, less-publicized problem that?s just as big a contributing factor. Over the last 4 weeks, the Falcons rank 30th or lower (that?s out of 32) in net punting, kick and punt return, and average starting field position. As Butthead would say, ?Those teams aren?t very special, uh-huh-uh.? Another factor pointing against the Falcons in this game is something I hit on last week; though the Falcons run the ball better than anyone, they don?t score rushing TDs very often or convert 3rd and short very well. Washington?s defense, for all its problems, has given up just 3 rushing TDs all season. Intriguing stat: the Skins are 32nd in takeaways but give up the ball less than all but one team. It should be cold and wet in DC on Sunday, and that favors the Ethnic Slurs too. Washington continues the Falcons decline with a 23-20 semi-upset. San Francisco at New Orleans Last week San Francisco proved my theme of water finding its level, as the drastic overachievers choked away a close game to fall to 5-6. Their talent level and point differential dictate they should have no more than 3 wins. This is a very poor matchup for the 49ers defense. The Saints throw the ball more successfully than any other team, and QB Drew Brees? ability to spread the ball all over the field to WRs with excellent speed and size is a nightmare for a Niners secondary that lacks size, speed, and talent. Their only shot is to force INTs, which they do well and which Brees will throw in bunches. The Saints do a great job in generating pass rush without blitzing, and they?ll need to keep QB Alex Smith uncomfortable because their secondary gives up the highest rate of TD passes per attempt in the league. New Orleans run D is actually better than the stats indicate, as the numbers against are highly inflated by two games against the run-crazy Falcons. 49ers RB Frank Gore should still find 100+ yards, but the Saints snuff the flare passes and checkdown dumps very well, and those are keys to the SF offense. San Francisco has pleasantly surprised me often this year, but I just don?t see it happening in New Orleans. Saints 34, 49ers 24. Driving a Geo in a Sleet Storm Games Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh This game probably looked real attractive back in July, but now that both these teams have plummeted from last year?s playoff status it?s strictly a fight for draft position. With ubiquitous S Troy Polamalu out with a knee injury, the Steelers defense loses not just its top run defender and blitzer, but its leader. Pittsburgh?s CBs have been increasingly toasty, but they might catch a break with the Tampa offense. Only Joey Galloway has represented any ability to consistently get open or make anything happen after the catch in the Bucs offense. He?s the only WR with more than one catch in each of their last 4 games, and defenses are daring QB Bruce Gradkowski to throw over the zone to beat them. Tampa?s inability to sustain a running game or keep Gradkowski upright plays into the Steelers game plan of bringing heat and forcing OL breakdowns. The Bucs are tied for last with just 5 INTs, something that should make Ben Roethlisberger and his league-leading 19 INTs thrown breathe a bit easier. Tampa Bay is the only team to rank 20th or lower in all team yardage categories, both offense and defense, and they are 28th in turnover margin. Pittsburgh might be a fairly talented team just not playing well, but Tampa Bay is just a flat-out bad football team. Steelers win 33-16. Arizona at St. Louis St. Louis broke out of their funk and finally pulled out a 4th quarter win, games they had been losing with alarming regularity. They?re back in the NFC playoff picture and draw the defenseless Cardinals, who do absolutely nothing well except throw the ball. The Rams run defense is pathetic, dead last with a 5.2 yards per carry average against them, but the Cardinals average a league-worst 2.9 ypc and also lead the league in fumbles, while the Rams force and recover more fumbles than all but one team (bafflingly, the Cardinals). St. Louis won the first meeting in Arizona back when the Cards still had light at the end of the tunnel. The freight train has long since derailed their season, while the Rams desperately need a win to keep their playoff light glowing. St. Louis 36, Arizona 31 in what promises to be a more entertaining game than the records would indicate. Houston at Oakland This game is for those like me who love the NFL draft and trying to figure out what collegians will go in the top 5, which is where both these teams will pick. In checking up on a hunch of mine, I discovered I?m 10-1 in picking Texans games this year and 9-2 in Raiders games, making them two of my top 3 (Chicago is the other, also 9-2). It?s in Oakland, the Raiders defense is far and away the best unit in any of the matchups, and I like what I saw of their offensive line play against a very good Chargers defense last week. Oakland prevails, probably for the last time this season, with a 24-10 win. Detroit at New England Detroit heads to freezing Foxboro with major issues all over the field. RB Kevin Jones is gimpy with a bum ankle, the OL has consistently been overmatched against the pass rush, QB Jon Kitna has only 2 NFL-caliber WRs (the superb Roy Williams and the overachieving Mike Furrey) to look for, and their LBs and safeties are both terrible in pass coverage. New England just beat a vastly better team despite committing 5 turnovers and not running the ball well. There?s not one matchup in this game that even remotely favors the Lions. It?s credibly rumored that embattled, incompetent GM Matt Millen is on his way out, and if he?s lucky the Lions will pull the trigger before he has to watch this debacle. It?s a great week for fantasy owners of Laurence Maroney and Reche Caldwell of the Patriots. New England 37, Detroit 13.