Last week: I only missed one game, the 49ers beating the Cowboys. 5-1 in the postseason thus far.

Four big games on the slate for what is often the best weekend of football every year.

- Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-3.5): Cincinnati is the upstart newcomer to the AFC’s final four, the only team in the conference left that didn’t at least make the postseason a year ago. Their triumphant win over the Raiders last week exorcised a lot of playoff demons that dated back to 1990, and it also proved they have the ability to close out a competitive game.

The Bengals offense will need to be sharper against the Titans, but only because the Tennessee offense is capable of turning this one into a track meet. Fresh off the bye, the Titans should have Derrick Henry back at RB. Even without Henry, the NFL’s top big-play runner, Tennessee still ran the ball very effectively. I’d feel better about the visiting Bengals' chances if they had DT Larry Ogunjobi, but his foot injury from last week is an untimely loss.

For Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense to keep up, they’re going to have to block well and capitalize in the red zone. The latter shouldn’t be an issue, but the Bengals offensive line is the biggest weakness of any matchup in the Xs and Os here. Tennessee has enough defensive weaponry to make them pay.

Titans 30, Bengals 24

- Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5): I like the Bills to pull the upset, but not for the typical reason most will cite. Sure, Josh Allen is a major problem for a rejuvenated Chiefs defense with his legs and improvisational skills. But it’s the safety tandem of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde that makes me lean to the visitors from Buffalo.

The communication on the back end is so critical in trying to defend Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Buffalo might not have the name recognition in the secondary, but they play like a well-oiled machine. Kansas City thrives on exploiting mistakes. But if the defense doesn’t make them, the Chiefs can be slowed down. No team allowed fewer passing yards or TDs than Buffalo, and they also led the NFL in yards per attempt on defense. Granted the Bills played an inordinate amount of really bad passers this year, but they don’t relent. I trust Tyler Bass to hit a long FG or two if needed for Buffalo, too.

Bills 26, Chiefs 21

- San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-5.5): No disrespect to the 49ers whatsoever (said in true $tephen A. $mith voice), but let’s be real: the only reason San Francisco is here is because Dallas flat-out blew it last week. Between the brutal playcalling, the unnecessary penalties and the weird early game woes from Dak Prescott, last week was a lot more about the ineptitude of the Cowboys than anything great the 49ers did. They survived and advanced--barely.

That type of game won’t cut it in Green Bay. Not with Aaron Rodgers throwing to Davante Adams and handing the ball to Aaron Jones. Green Bay’s secondary and middle-of-field defense can cause problems for Jimmy Garoppolo and the play-action and bootlegs that sparkle in the 49ers offense.

Key matchup: Packers LB DeVondre Campbell against Niners WR Deebo Samuel. The 49ers use Samuel in so many ways, and do it very well. But Campbell had a stellar first year in Green Bay and his ability to chase down and reliably tackle in the open field is a nice counter for the home defense.

Packers 30, 49ers 17

- Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5): The Buccaneers are the defending champs, but they are not healthy. Specifically, the offensive attrition is a battle that could very well cost them the war with the high-profile Rams.

Right tackle Tristan Wirfs and center Ryan Jensen are both shaky with injuries. Even if they play, it’s tough to expect them to be as effective as possible. Wirfs could barely walk off the field last week. They’re not facing ordinary competition with the Rams, either. Aaron Donald is the best defensive wrecking ball in the league and Von Miller is proving he’s still got it off the edge, too. It would help if the Bucs run game could keep them honest, but Leonard Fournette is also gimpy. There’s no Chris Godwin, there’s no Antonio Brown. It’s not the same Bucs that rampaged to the NFC South title.

The home team is still fully capable of winning, however. Tampa’s defense has playmakers like Shaq Barrett and Antoine Winfield Jr. who can frustrate Matthew Stafford. The Rams QB got a massive monkey off his back with his first career playoff win last week. Can he do it again? Stafford didn’t have to win the game for the Rams, didn’t have to be great. In this one, he might have to be The Guy. I know he’s got the potential, but can he outduel Tom Brady or make the critical play to make it happen with such pressure? In a close game, give me Brady and Gronk, thank you very much.

But it might not be close. If the banged-up Bucs can’t score early, I can see the Rams running out to a lead that not even Brady can overcome.

Rams 29, Buccaneers 23