Stars of Week 12

QB: Josh Allen, BUF: 23-28, 260 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs                                                                 

RB: Leonard Fournette, TB: 17 carries, 100 yards, 3 TDs (Plus 1 receiving TD) 

WR: Jaylen Waddle, MIA: 9 catches, 137 yards, 1 TD

TE: Dawson Knox, BUF: 3 catches, 32 yards, 2 TDs

The Buffalo Bills looked like Super Bowl contenders once again on Thanksgiving night, knocking out the New Orleans Saints without breaking much of a sweat. QB Josh Allen tossed 4 TDs, well making up for his two picks. While Allen has been inconsistent this season, he remains a top 3 must start QB due to his sky high ceiling.

Leonard Fournette apologized to fantasy owners last week for not scoring all the TDs, rightfully noting that the Bucs are loaded with talent in all corners. To show his apologetic nature, he then went out and scored 4 TDs this past weekend against the Colts. Similar to Marshawn Lynch’s transition from the Bills to the Seahawks, Fournette moving from the Jaguars to the Bucs has lifted his career to another level. Not saying he’s at Marshawn’s level, but just noting a similar ascension unlocked by a new team. Fournette needs to be viewed as a high end RB2 and a weekly must start.

From a veteran raising his game in Fournette to a rookie doing so in Miami, WR Jaylen Waddle roasted the Panthers to the tune of 137 yards and a TD, catching 9 passes. We take a closer look at Waddle’s continued rise below.

Just this very last week, we covered Dawson Knox and pleaded with you to add him to your roster if available in your league. Knox apparently wanted to hammer the point home by going out on Thanksgiving night and catching two of Allen’s TD passes. The early season Knox is back, folks. He’s a low end TE1, with a high TD rate…dinged a bit just because his yardage totals don’t provide a strong weekly floor if the TDs aren’t there.

Week 12 Takeaways – A Closer Look

Each week we’ll take a closer look at a handful of performances and sort out what such performances mean going forward.

- Dontrell Hilliard, RB – TEN: 12 carries, 131 yards, 1 TD 

Analysis: The Titans went from having the most stable RB situation (King Henry) to a carousel consisting of Adrian Peterson, D’Onta Foreman, Jeremy McNichols and now Dontrell Hilliard. With Henry out for the foreseeable future, Peterson released and McNichols injured, Hilliard got his chance to do some damage for the Titans, and indeed he was one of the team’s few bright spots in the loss against the Patriots. Hilliard averaged nearly 11 yards per carry, boosted by a 68 yard TD run. Taking the long outlier run out, you still have 5.7 YPC, which is outstanding against a tough Patriots’ D. Looking at distribution of carries, Foreman led Hilliard by an 19 to 12 margin, while the snap count shows Hilliard slightly edging out Foreman by a 32 to 31 margin (per PFF). So in essence, the backs split snaps, with Foreman having a larger presence on rushing downs. Importantly, Foreman produced with his 19 carries, gaining 109 yards in his own right, which should keep Foreman’s role as part of the committee to remain safe. The question is whether Hilliard has forced his way onto the committee, which would impact McNichols on his return. Unfortunately there’s no way to know this until McNichols returns, so go ahead and add Hilliard, but note the uncertainty of how the backfield will shake out. Note that the Titans are on bye in week 13, so any help from Hilliard will have to wait a week.

- Matt Breida, RB – BUF: 9 carries, 26 yards, 0 TDs (2 catches, 29 yards, 1 TD)

Analysis: The Buffalo Bills’ RB situation has been a fantasy wasteland this season, with neither Zack Moss nor Devin Singletary able to carve out an impact role. Could there be a change on the horizon? The Bills made Moss a healthy scratch against the Saints, with veteran Matt Breida in mind for Moss’ snaps. Breida rewarded the Bills on Thanksgiving night, finding the end zone on a pass from QB Josh Allen, while also rushing for a modest 26 yards on 9 carries. Sure, far from eye popping numbers, but Breida could well be the Bills’ best RB. Singletary outcarried Breida 15 to 9 versus the Saints, but Singletary failed to impress with his 44 rushing yards. Looking at the snap count, Singletary essentially doubled up Breida (45 to 21), but note that a large portion of Singletary’s snaps came after the Bills had the game out of reach. Here’s the deal – neither Moss nor Singletary have capitalized on their chances to seize the lead RB role, despite weekly opportunities throughout the season. Breida has only taken snaps in 4 games thus far, but he’s looked good in his limited opportunity. The Bills would be smart to give Breida a larger share of the workload and see what transpires. Whether that happens, we’ll see. But as mentioned if you’re looking for a reasonable flier at RB, Breida has upside.

- Jaylen Waddle, WR – MIA: 9 catches, 137 yards, 1 TD

Analysis: J’Marr Chase has received nearly all of the verbal accolades on behalf of the rookie WRs, but it’s time to share the love across his fellow WR draftmates. Don’t look now, but the previously anemic Miami Dolphins’ offense has come to life, with Tua syncing up with his prized rookie WR, Jaylen Waddle at the forefront of the improvement. Waddle caught 9 balls against the Panthers for 137 yards, finding the end zone once as well. Waddle has cemented himself as the Dolphins primary target in the passing game, getting open with ease with his jet like speed and solid route running, while also possessing soft hands. The Alabama product has 61 or more receiving yards in 6 of his last 7 games, while being targeted an average of 9 times per game over that span. So Waddle’s performance against the Panthers is in line with a rookie player blossoming into a star, as opposed to temporary fireworks. For fantasy purposes, Waddle started the season as a WR4, progressing to WR3/flex territory during the first half of the season. He’s now made another jump, landing in WR2 space, which makes Waddle a must start moving forward. Waddle’s improvement has staying power, and for those of you who were patient with him, make him a mainstay in your lineup.

- Kendrick Bourne, WR – NE: 5 catches, 61 yards, 2 TDs

Analysis: Did another team have a better offseason than the New England Patriots? Me thinks not. Not only did the Pats crush the draft (Mac Jones, Christian Barmore…), but they also did a stellar job in free agency. Matt Judon has been a terror on QBs, while TEs Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith have helped provide intermediate passing weapons for their prized rookie QB. But let’s not stop there in praising the Pats’ free agency moves, as WR Kendrick Bourne has also provided fantastic ROI. Coming over from the 49ers, Bourne has caught 5 TDs while throwing for another, accumulating 623 receiving yards thus far. Bourne found the end zone twice against the Titans, giving him 3 TDs over his last three games, with 201 receiving yards over this span. On the concerning side from a fantasy standpoint, Bourne’s targets remain on the lower side for his production (just 14 over the last 3 games), which leaves him open to boom or bust performances if the targets don’t convert. But the Patriots’ offense has trended upward with Jones becoming more comfortable and teams having to account for both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson in the running game, which opens things up for the passing game. So the verdict on Bourne – he’s a flex worthy option in standard leagues and deeper PPR leagues (14 plus teams). If you’re hurting at WR, give Bourne a look.

Rapid Fire Pickups

Each week we’ll throw out potential free agent pickups from each position for deeper leagues, in each case a player 1) who has NOT been featured above, and 2) remains available in more than 50% of leagues.

QB: Taysom Hill, NO (vs DAL) *likely to start

RB: Alexander Mattison, MIN (@ DET)  *51% owned but top add if available

RB: Jamaal Williams, DET (vs MIN)

WR: Van Jefferson, LAR (vs JAC)

WR: Kadarius Toney, NYG (@ MIA)

TE: Foster Moreau, LV (vs WAS)

Personal Note

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