It took quite a bit of time for Week 12 to finally end. Wednesday’s matinee between the Steelers and Ravens had some ripple effects on this week’s schedule as well. We get a double-header on Monday and a scheduled Tuesday night game to go with the Sunday slate as the NFL takes a page out of the MACtion playbook. 

Last week: 10-5, I forgot to pick the Rams/49ers. Hoping to match that forecast this week with the Bucs and Panthers on a bye. 

Sunday Best

We only get two matchups between teams with winning records this week. Relish them. 

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-5.5): Come for the best running show in recent memory. Derrick Henry leads the NFL in rushing for the Titans, while the 1-2 punch of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is poised to have both RBs top 1,000 yards in Cleveland. 

Early in the week I was convinced the Titans were going to blow the Browns doors off. Cleveland’s LBs are bad even on their best day, and that best day isn’t likely to come vs. Henry and the polished Titans rushing attack. And then there’s A.J. Brown on the outside against Browns defense that won’t have top CB Denzel Ward. 

But the more I looked at the matchup, the more I saw some advantages for Cleveland. Myles Garrett is back after missing two weeks with a COVID-19 diagnosis, and he’s ready to get back to proving he’s the Defensive Player of the Year. Tennessee is down to third-string LT David Quessenberry, a cancer survivor who is a much better storyline than left tackle. Cleveland’s base 2TE set is a problem for a Titans defense that has struggled badly against teams who deliberately target the TE in the passing game. If they commit help on Austin Hooper and impressive rookie Harrison Bryant, that opens things up for Chubb and Hunt running behind the NFL’s best offensive line. 

So it’s not a cut-and-dry game. As much as there can be with limited fans in the stands, this figures to have a playoff atmosphere between the two 8-3 teams. The Browns haven’t been involved in a game of this magnitude in well over a decade, and I think the inexperience hurts them in the end. But it might help in a possible January rematch…

Titans 26, Browns 21

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5): Important game in the NFC West and the overall conference playoff picture. The 7-4 Rams are looking up at the 8-3 Seahawks, with Arizona looking up longingly at both with its 6-5 mark. 

Arizona’s sputtering defense is the biggest reason to like the Rams on the road. They’re giving up too many easy completions and not pressuring the opposing QB well. For a team like the Rams with multiple weapons and a QB in Jared Goff who isn’t shy about using any of them, that’s a real problem for the Cardinals. 

It would help if Arizona didn’t get cute on offense too much, as they are wont to do. Things like playing Andy Isabella in the slot instead of Christian Kirk in critical situations, or leaving a tackle to fend for himself against a top pass rusher and instead deploying TE help on the other side, those are things Kliff Kingsbury needs to stop. I also have no faith in Cardinals kicker Zane Gonzalez after he came up short on a 49-yard FG. I mean, at least miss to a side, Zane...

Rams 30, Cardinals 23

Sunday Rest

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5): Really strong gut feeling that the Falcons pull out this rivalry game and keep surging upwards under interim coach Raheem Morris, who is doing his best to keep the job permanently. Having a real QB under center will help, something the Saints didn’t face last week. 

Falcons 27, Saints 24

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3.5): This will be the third game this season with an interim head coach making his debut. Darrell Bevell took over in Detroit for (thankfully) fired Matt Patricia, and Bevell will look to make it 3-for-3 with interim coaches getting the win in their first games at the helm. He would join Romeo Crennel with the Texans and Raheem Morris in Atlanta with that status. 

Both of those interim coaches had prior head coaching experience, something Bevell lacks. Between that and the myriad injuries facing the Lions, it’s hard to see Bevell winning this one. But strange things happen in situations like this, and many Bears fans are hoping coach Matt Nagy is the next neck on the chopping block. Losing here might help those fans’ cause. 

Lions 20, Bears 17

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (-11.5): Go figure, the matchup between the two touted first-round rookie QBs finds both Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa injured. Tua is questionable with a thumb injury, and the smart decision would be to let that heal up and roll with Ryan Fitzpatrick against one of his 77 former teams. The Burrow-less Bengals will offer little resistance. 

Dolphins 27, Bengals 13

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+3.5): The Colts are a good team but a tough one to trust. They’ve struggled while playing good teams, and the Romeo Crennel version of the Texans has been good enough to go 4-3. As long as Philip Rivers can throw effectively while dealing with his toe injury, the Colts should be fine against a Texans secondary that might not be able to cover Rivers as a receiver. And sans Will Fuller on offense, I don’t think Deshaun Watson can keep up. It should be fun to watch Watson try, however…

Colts 36, Texans 30

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets (+8.5): The Raiders have some injury issues. Josh Jacobs won’t play at RB and Jonathan Abram is out at safety. They’re coming off a thorough butt-kicking at the hands of the Falcons, too. If ever the Jets had a death-gasp game in them to avoid going 0-16, this is the opportune time. And if the Jets can somehow get out to an early 10-0 or 13-3 lead, I think they’ll take it. The Raiders have more than enough in reserve to make this a lopsided blowout in their favor, however. 

Raiders 28, Jets 20

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings (-9.5): The Jaguars are sticking out their necks with Mike “The Giraffe” Glennon at quarterback once again. Glennon has lost 17 of the last 20 games he’s started, dating back to his ill-fated days with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2013. He didn’t play poorly in last week’s loss to Cleveland, but Glennon will need to be sharper with his passes and quicker with his decisions to avoid the team’s 11th straight loss. I wouldn’t bet on it. 

Vikings 35, Jaguars 22

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5): Just when the Giants bubble up to first place in the NFC East, they lose starting QB Daniel Jones. Colt McCoy will lead the G-Men into Seattle against the Seahawks’ improving defense. 

After their wretched start, Seattle’s defense is figuring it out. They’re 12th in the last three weeks in yards per game allowed (317) and 10th in scoring defense (20.3) in that span. I respect McCoy as a backup, but not enough to slow down that defensive momentum. The Giants defense is also playing well (5th in scoring D the last 3 weeks) so the under is attractive here at +/- 47.5.

Seahawks 24, Giants 16

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-8.5): Many Eagles fans appear to have reached the stage of radical acceptance with their football team just not being very good in 2020. Those who still hold out hope will see that extinguished in Green Bay, where the Packers don’t beat themselves. 

Fun Carson Wentz fact! The last QB to lead the league in INTs, fumbles and sacks through 11 games before Wentz pulled it off this year was Paul McDonald of the 1984 Cleveland Browns. He never played again. Not saying, just sayin’...

Packers 37, Eagles 20

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5): At this point we’re running out of ways the Chargers can find to lose games under Anthony Lynn. I like coach Lynn but it’s time for the creative methods of losing to stop. The Patriots keep their postseason life support plugged in for another week. 

Patriots 28, Chargers 26

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5): The Mahomes-for-MVP train keeps a-rolling, all night long. Train kept a-rolling, all night long. Sorry, I suddenly remembered my least-favorite Aerosmith song. I was hoping it would blend into Buckcherry’s “All Night Long” but it didn’t take. Maybe Blackfoot’s “Train, Train”? I like that one. Listening to any of those is probably better than watching the Chiefs freight train against the shaving cream at the bottom of the hill that is the Broncos. 

Chiefs 36, Broncos 9 

Monday Night

Washington Football Team at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5): If the Steelers team we saw on Wednesday shows up Monday, they’re not beating Washington. Period. Dropped passes, lackluster execution on defense, poor special teams. That’s how underdogs can catch an unbeaten favorite. And Washington’s defense is no joke, either. 

I trust in Mike Tomlin to get things together on the abbreviated work week. I do not expect this to be easy for the last of the unbeatens, but I do believe they stay that way. I like the WFT with the points quite a bit. 

Steelers 20, Football Team 17

Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ers (+2.5): Apparently this game will be played in Arizona thanks to COVID restrictions at the 49ers home in Santa Clara. The Bills just played there three weeks ago, so the travel and field conditions won’t be an issue for them. As long as the Bills can run the ball, they’ll be fine in taking down what’s left of the 49ers. 

Bills 23, 49ers 20

Tuesday Night

Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5): Baltimore was quietly struggling even before the COVID-19 outbreak struck hard. I know Dallas’ offensive line is filled with backups and their LBs are the dumpster on fire in a river meme, but I see the Cowboys competing in Baltimore. Winning, on the other hand, is a different story. Justin Tucker nails a game-winner as time expires.  

Ravens 24, Cowboys 21