It appears the hurricane threat is finally removed from the weather forecast. Hopefully those impacted by Florence can begin to resume a normal life soon as the torrential flood waters recede across the Mid-Atlantic region. 

Last week: 8-8. Two weeks in a row with a tie. Will there be a third? For tracking purposes, I use my pick against the spread as the tiebreaker in a tie. Since I correctly predicted the right outcome line in both, they are tallied as wins. 17-15 on the young season. 

All lines are from Bovada as of 2 pm ET on Tuesday

Thursday Night

- New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-3): The Browns are favored at home for the first time since Week 13 of the 2015 season. On that day, Mike Pettine’s defense sacked Blaine Gabbert 9 times in what turns out ot be Johnny Manziel’s final NFL victory as a starting quarterback. Watch this one for Myles Garrett, the last opportunity for most of the nation to catch the supremely talented Browns pass rusher on a spotlight game all year. You shouldn’t be disappointed. Open the victory beer fridges! 

Browns 20, Jets 17 

Sunday Games

- New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3): Two of the three best wideouts in the NFL will be on display with Michael Thomas and Julio Jones. That right there is worth the price of admission. Both should hit double digits in receptions and break the century mark in yards.

I like how the Falcons worked in Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper in last week’s win over Carolina, and the balance with Tevin Coleman in the backfield as well. The Saints Alvin Kamara struggled to get going against the Browns in part because no other New Orleans receivers aside from Thomas scared Cleveland’s defense. They shouldn’t scare the Falcons either.

Falcons 29, Saints 27 

- San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5): Kansas City has had three different receivers top 100 yards in a game this year. That sort of diversity in weaponry is going to be a problem for the 49ers, who have some impressive talents on defense but lack depth and are prone to youthful mistakes. Having the NFL’s leading rusher in Matt Breida will help the Niners stay close, but they cannot reload fast enough in a shootout with Patrick Mahomes & Co.

Chiefs 33, 49ers 26 

- Green Bay Packers at Washington (+3): Washington has an ugly propensity for playing poorly at home early in the season. The fans apparently caught on, as last week’s game against Indianapolis featured wide swaths of empty seats for a home opener against an inferior opponent. Those fans who stayed at home missed the Colts pounding the home team. They might want to avert their eyes from what Aaron Rodgers can do, especially with speedy RB Aaron Jones returning from suspension. 

Packers 27, Washington 17

- Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings (-17): I wear a wristband representing the “Be Nice” campaign. I shall honor the spirit of the anti-bullying and suicide prevention cause (something I enthusiastically support) by not touching the commentary on this one. Be Nice. Be Nice. Dang it’s hard… 

Vikings 38, Bills 9

- New York Giants at Houston Texans (-6): Don’t overthink this matchup. J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney (if he’s healthy), Whitney Mercilus and friends against a Giants line that can’t block teams with one semi-capable pass rusher. Pray for Eli Manning. I’d give the Giants a better chance if their own pretty talented defensive front was healthy, but that’s not the case.

Texans 32, Giants 13

- Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-1): The Seattle team that played Monday night in Chicago loses to the Cowboys team that whipped the Giants last week by 20. I expect more from the Seahawks at home, but the same favorable matchups Dallas capitalized on against New York are present once again. There is trouble brewing in Seattle, and losing this game will not go over well for those who have begun grumbling about Pete Carroll.

Cowboys 20, Seahawks 17 

- Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-7): No Joey Bosa means no win for the Chargers. Sometimes it’s that simple. Having said that, Philip Rivers could throw for 375 yards and 3 TDs...and still come up short. 

Rams 31, Chargers 24

- Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (NL): Classic letdown game situation for the Jaguars after thoroughly defeating the mighty Patriots last week. Can they handle the success? 

My forecast says yes. Playing a familiar divisional foe helps guard against the letdown. Marcus Mariota’s questionable status (why there is no line) sets up a bigger trap, but it also makes it that much easier for an attacking, multi-talented Jaguars defense to snuff out the Titan attack.

Jaguars 30, Titans 20

- Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles (-6): Carson Wentz makes his return to the Eagles lineup. Will it be a triumphant one? If the return of Colts counterpart Andrew Luck was any indication, it’s probably best to curb your expectations. Wentz still has the superior supporting cast to help him. Don’t count out the Colts, however. Their young defense woke up a bit in last week’s win in Washington, and Luck has found a shiny new toy in TE Eric Ebron who is a perfect weapon to attack the Eagles defense.

Eagles 20, Colts 17 

- Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers (-3): No Joe Mixon changes the calculus of this game. It definitely impacts the geometry of the Bengals offense. Gio Bernard cannot bisect the interior angles like Mixon could, and that frees up the Carolina secondary to focus more on the coverage and play action responsibilities outside. I smell a big game from Cam Newton on the ground, too.

Panthers 30, Bengals 21

- Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-5): One of the perils of working from home is that sometimes life interferes with the creative process. As I’m trying to analyze this game and figure out if the Broncos have a chance to pull off the upset, the following is going on in my house:

My 13-year-old son in practicing his bass clarinet. Current tune: Iron Man. He’s good but it still makes it tough to concentrate.

My 10-year-old daughter has interrupted me with “hey dad” and seven different questions in the last 6 minutes, from “can I have a bag of chips” to “how old were you when your chest hair turned white?” And my wife wonders why I shave my chest...

The neighbor who mows his lawn every single day is using his leaf blower to push away the nonexistent grass clippings.

My phone has rung twice with a robot offering me a once-in-a-lifetime chance to refinance my nonexistent credit card debt. 

Uhh, the game…

Ravens 24, Broncos 17

- Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-3): The Dolphins are a very quiet 2-0, thanks in large part to starting strong in both games on defense. Miami has allowed just 3 points in the first half through two weeks. Now they play a Raiders team that throws the ball for a lot of yards but cannot score. The Dolphins are the better overall team, but I struggle to see them at 3-0. As much as I criticize Jon Gruden, I struggle to see his Raiders falling to 0-3. Don’t ask me how it happens in an early East Coast start for Oakland… 

Raiders 21, Dolphins 20

- Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (+6): The Cardinals have been the worst team in the league through the first two weeks. I struggle to see how Sam Bradford survives Khalil Mack. Arizona’s defense can keep this one within reach if they can force some mistakes from Mitchell Trubisky.

Bears 27, Cardinals 13

- New England Patriots at Detroit Lions (+7): The master doesn’t lose to the apprentice. Bill Belichick shows no mercy in the dojo against former proteges. Matt Patricia’s Lions would need a remarkable confluence of events to pull off the upset. Given how lackluster Lions QB Matthew Stafford has played in the first two weeks, remarkable would be an understatement. New England could run for 175 yards and 3 TDs. The trick for fantasy wonks is to figure out which RB hand, err feet, will be the hottest.

Patriots 34, Lions 21

Monday Night

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5): The Steelers have not looked good on defense. A week after giving up 6 TD passes to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, they draw Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bucs. No team has thrown for more yards than the Bucs at 819, and Fitzmagic has thrown 8 TDs to just one INT. 

However, the No. 2 team on the passing yardage list is Pittsburgh. The Bucs secondary is the weakest one the Steelers will have played, too. This is a “right the ship” game for PIttsburgh, ironically in a stadium with a pirate ship in the end zone.

Steelers 38, Buccaneers 30 

College Games

I pick these just for fun. My Ohio Bobcats have made it less fun, unfortunately… 

West Virginia 36, Kansas State 21

Notre Dame 20, Wake Forest 17

Indiana 26, Michigan State 24

TCU 39, Texas 31

Michigan 28, Nebraska 25

Alabama 57, Texas A&M 30