Last week: 7-9, a bad setback after several weeks of double-digit wins. 140-78 on the season. 

Thursday Night

- Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (+3): On a night where the new Star Wars movie debuts, the NFL rolls out the 4-9 Broncos and the 3-10 Colts. These teams have combined for two wins in their last 18 games. The force is not strong with this one…

Colts 27, Broncos 21

Saturday Games

- Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-6): In typical Lions fashion, this is how this NFC North battle will play out: The Lions will gain exactly 37 yards and punt twice in the 1st quarter, running six times for 9 yards. The Bears will manage a long field goal.

The teams exchange passing TDs before halftime, both set up by iffy penalties on the defense. The Lions will lose a touchdown pass to Eric Ebron on a bad call.

After the Lions D forces a 3-and-out to start the 2nd half, Matthew Stafford catches fire and throws for over 225 yards and two TDs in the Lions’ final four drives. Chicago squeezes in a touchdown on a big run from Jordan Howard, but Mitchell Trubisky's 4th-and-6 pass on the Bears’ death-gasp drive gets picked off by Glover Quin.

Lions 21, Bears 17

- Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5): The AFC West is at stake, and it seems the sportsbooks don’t have any idea who should be favored, the surging Chargers or the fading Chiefs. The lines on this game are all over the place. After opening with the Chiefs as 1-point favorites, there is quite a disagreement among the bookmakers. Bovada and some other books the Chargers favored by 1.5, but Caesar’s Palace and Westgate have the game even. BetNow and the Mirage have the Chiefs favored by a point. Chaos!

I like that the Chiefs rediscovered some mojo last week. They’ll need it against the Chargers. Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram and the Chargers defensive front has an advantage against the Chiefs line, and the safeties do not get enough credit for how well they flow to the point of attack. I think that will limit big plays from Kareem Hunt and the sporadically (of late) effective Alex Smith. Kansas City’s defensive woes are an underreported issue, too.

Chargers 33, Chiefs 21

Sunday

- Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-13): In the Week 1 meeting in Houston, the Jaguars sacked Tom Savage six times in the first half and concussed five Texans. Since that time, the Texans have lost 10 starters to injured reserve and will likely be without Savage and his nasty, mishandled concussion from last week. Instead of having Deshaun Watson to don the cape and save the day, it’s T.J. Yates. No offense to Yates, but ewww…

Jaguars 31, Texans 10

- Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (-2.5): Aaron Rodgers returns like Lazarus from the grave, and his resurrection lifts the Packers back into the NFC playoff thicket. Not many contenders get to add an MVP candidate for a stretch run.

The problem with the Rodgers narrative here is twofold. First, Green Bay’s defense is not very good. A competent QB and functional offensive coach in Cleveland last week hangs 40 on them. Cam Newton and the speed of the Panthers offense is going to exploit those weaknesses.

Second, any rust from Rodgers will snowball with the injury-ravaged run game to force the surgically repaired QB to have to do everything himself. I would never bet against Rodgers, but in this case I’m betting against the rest of the Packers and on the quietly surging home team.

Panthers 36, Packers 28

- Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-3): The NFC West title game, essentially. The Rams are the better overall team, but the Seahawks have MVP candidate Russell Wilson as a trump card.

Two reasons to really like the Seahawks, even though this game looks like a coin flip:

1. Seattle lost last week, and they simply do not lose two in a row. They have won 13 of their last 14 games coming off a loss.

2. The Rams have one win in Seattle since 2004.

This is the best Rams team since that time period, but I’ll side with the team more accustomed to winning significant games.

Seahawks 26, Rams 24

- Arizona Cardinals at Washington (-4.5): Two teams who are just starting to play out the string of elimination. Washington has the better QB in Kirk Cousins, but so many injuries on both sides of the ball makes it tough to trust the host Skins. If this game was later in the day or in Arizona I’d take the Cards, but the early start and likely chilled weather push me the other way. Currently here in Cousins’ hometown of Holland, MI, it’s 11 degrees with 6 inches of snow in the last 12 hours. He knows how to play in the cold.

Washington 23, Cardinals 20

- Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+7): Gut check time for the Wentz-less Eagles. This is where their defense can shine. While the Giants OL has played better of late, this is a mismatch akin to a debate on science between Stephen Hawking and Steven Seagal.

Eagles 27, Giants 10

- New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-16): Josh McCown’s injury leaves the Jets with two chances in New Orleans against the Saints’ balanced offense and effective defense: slim and none. Bet on the none.

Saints 30, Jets 9

- Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (NL): Somehow, some way the Bills won in the snowstorm with wide receiver Joe Webb playing quarterback last week. I know Miami stinks and the Bills enter the weekend as a playoff team, but that sure seems unsustainable. That’s the only reason I’m taking Miami, because the Bills defense is good enough to pitch a shutout here.

Dolphins 19, Bills 16

- Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (-11): Vikings coach Mike Zimmer faces the franchise where he came from as the defensive mastermind. He could grease the skids for his old boss, Marvin Lewis, to hit the job search line. With little to play for versus everything to play for, it’s not a tough choice.

Vikings 33, Bengals 17

- Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+7): The Browns were the better team against Green Bay last week, but critical mistakes from DeShone Kizer and the special teams cost them their first victory. They won’t sniff that chance in Baltimore, where the Ravens are playing for their playoff lives.

Ravens 30, Browns 14

- New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3): The No. 1 seed in the AFC is on the line here. Pittsburgh keeps winning at home thanks to the clutch right foot of Chris Boswell, and that’s a real asset of confidence in a game where so many other variables seem to come up even.

New England’s vastly improved pass defense vs. Antonio Brown and the Steelers pass offense coming off a 500-yard game against Baltimore is an epic matchup. The coordination between layers of the Patriots defense is critical. They’re better but still vulnerable, especially if LB Kyle Van Noy is either out (he was last week) or limited.

The flip side is also true, and Pittsburgh losing Ryan Shazier is a big problem against Tom Brady and the Pats’ opportunistic passing attack. I see a good week for Gronk in his return, just in time for fantasy football playoffs. But I also see Boswell being a great fantasy kicker play this week, and that wins out in real football.

Steelers 33, Patriots 31

- Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-2): Here’s what the professionals think of the Titans, currently the 5 seed in the AFC: they’re underdogs to a 3-10 team with nearly 20 players on IR. Prove ‘em wrong, Marcus Mariota. You have the power, use it!

49ers 20, Titans 17

- Dallas Cowboys at Oakland Raiders (+3): It’s odd that an interconference game this late in the year is a de facto elimination game, but that’s exactly what this is. The loser here essentially loses any realistic hope for the postseason. I’m siding with the better QB and better pass rush, and the visitors have both.

Cowboys 35, Raiders 28

Monday Night

- Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6): The Falcons are in desperation mode, and the 4-9 Bucs are one of the biggest disappointments on the season. Losing Gerald McCoy from the middle completely eliminates any threat of the Tampa Bay pass rush, which was already the worst in the league with the dynamic DT. Without him? Cue the big game from Matt Ryan, still an outstanding QB when he gets time. This one could get ugly early and have everyone going to bed at halftime.

Falcons 30, Buccaneers 17