Last week: 7-9. To quote Mark McGwire, I’m not here to talk about the past…

Forecasting Week 2 is always about balancing what was expected from the preseason against what actually happened in Week 1. How much do you trust one week versus months of prep work getting to know a team? Sorting out what was a fluke from an unexpected reality is key.

Here is my attempt at divining the real lessons of Week 1.

All lines are from Bovada as of 7:40 a.m. on Sept. 14th.

Thursday Night

- Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5): Both these teams lost last week largely thanks to abysmal offensive line play. The Texans allowed pressure on more than 50% of the dropbacks by Tom Savage and replacement Deshaun Watson, the worst rate in the league. The Bengals weren’t much better, and the pressure severely impacted Andy Dalton into one of the worst QB performances in recorded history: 16-of-31, 170 yards, 4 INTs, 5 sacks.

Houston’s defense underwhelmed vs. Jacksonville. I expect that to change in Cincinnati. The problem for the Texans is the offense. All three tight ends on the roster are out with concussions, as is WR Bruce Ellington. Bill O’Brien continues to mismanage the QB situation, too. First defensive score wins? (I changed my prediction on this one 3 times)

Bengals 16, Texans 13

Sunday

- Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-6): All aboard the Kareem Hunt train! The Chiefs dynamo gets his first home game and the Arrowhead faithful are sure to give the record-setting rookie RB a raucous reception. Jim Schwartz and the Eagles defense now have some tape on Hunt and the rest of the Chiefs impressive offense, and that will slow down the attack. The Philly pass rush will make life a lot more difficult for Alex Smith.

The problem for the Eagles is their own offense against a very disciplined Kansas City defense. Carso Wentz impressed in the opener, but I think he’s also due for a rude awakening with the likes of Marcus Peters on the back end. Losing Eric Berry is a big blow for the Chiefs, but on this day I don’t think it’s a fatal blow.

Chiefs 23, Eagles 21

- Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-1): What I believe to be the two most complete teams in the NFC face off in a great early-season marquee game. Green Bay performed impressively in a similar situation last week over Seattle while the Falcons fought for their lives in Chicago. Don’t let that scare you off the home team.

Atlanta opens the gorgeous-looking Mercedes Benz Dome, resplendent with its unique architecture and reasonably priced concessions. I have a hard time picking against the defending NFC champs opening the new building. Green Bay’s defense was outstanding against the Seahawks, but Atlanta’s offensive line and quick passing game will present a very divergent challenge. Aaron Rodgers is tough to bet against, but I can see the Falcons’ active secondary picking off a pass or two here too.

Falcons 33, Packers 30

- Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3): If the Jaguars are ever to live up to their promise, this is the type of game they must win. Coming off a tour de force shellacking of the Texans in Houston, Calais Campbell and friends can run away and hide with the AFC South lead by beating the visiting Titans. Campbell absolutely dominated in Week 1 and he wasn’t alone, either. Yannick Ngakoue, Myles Jack and Dante Fowler took over the game.

They can do the same against a Tennessee offense which had unexpected issues up front in losing to Oakland. The question for the Jaguars is, can you trust Blake Bortles and the offense? Losing top wideout Allen Robinson is a big blow, and I like the Titans defensive front to throttle down on impressive rookie RB Leonard Fournette. Until the Jaguars prove they can handle success, I can’t forecast them to sustain any of it. That first week sure looked great, though…

Titans 24, Jaguars 20

- Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6): If it seems like these two franchises never play each other, you’re not alone. They’ve met just four times this century in the divisional rotation games, with the Steelers winning three of the four meetings. Minnesota won the last meeting, however. That game was in London and featured Adrian Peterson running wild against a Steelers team in the middle of a 2-6 start.

That was 2013. Peterson is replaced by Dalvin Cook, who looked great in his Vikings debut. Sam Bradford is also new to the series, and he likewise played well in Minnesota’s opening victory. If the Vikings are to pull this one off, he’ll need to be sharp once again. The key is for Bradford to pick on the weakness of the Steelers, which is defending the deep pass. Freshly acquired Joe Haden very much justified Cleveland’s decision to dump him, as the veteran CB simply cannot run anymore. It’s incumbent upon Bradford to attack Haden and the rest of the young Steelers around him down the field. He has the weapons in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen to make it work.

As the forecast here indicates, I don’t trust Sammy Sleeves…

Steelers 21, Vikings 17

- Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5): Upset alert! It might seem crazy to trust the Browns on the road in a division game. They haven’t covered the spread in an AFC North road game since 2014, but this Cleveland defense is a different animal. Jamie Collins, Joe Schobert and Christian Kirksey are the fastest LB trio in the league, and the entire Cleveland D is both aggressive and swift.

I like that heading into Baltimore to face a Ravens team which offensively sleepwalked through the hapless Bengals. Joe Flacco only completed 9 passes and had very little to worry about. While the Ravens should find some success running the ball, I don’t see a lot of efficiency coming out of the hosts. As long as DeShone Kizer doesn’t wet the bed in his first road game, I think the Browns keep this game close. The Ravens are a solid choice to win outright, but I’m not sold they’re 10 points better than the youthful Browns.

Ravens 20, Browns 16

- Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5): Our first look at Tampa Bay is the Mike Glennon revenge game. The Giraffe wasn’t bad in his first game as Chicago’s starting QB, but he also didn’t make enough plays against Atlanta. I don’t see him finding success down the field versus his former team, either, not with that motley collection of receiving weapons. I do expect some rust from Jameis Winston and his talented supporting cast, and the Bears defense has legit claws too. Could be a good week for tiny Bears rookie RB Tarik Cohen, but it could be an even bigger week for a fresh Mike Evans working down the field for the Bucs.

Buccaneers 27, Bears 17

- Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts (+7.5): Someone has to win. It won’t be the Colts, not unless Carson Palmer falls further over the proverbial cliff…and he might. May this not be the game you are forced to watch.

Cardinals 32, Colts 20

- Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (-4.5): I came away quite impressed with Carolina’s defense in the opener. They shut down a bad Brian Hoyer in San Francisco. They can do the same with Buffalo and the up-and-down Tyrod Taylor in Charlotte. The Bills might not beat any team not named the Jets this year.

Panthers 26, Bills 13

- Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5): Miami’s first game of the year comes in a soccer stadium in Week 2. I can’t expect Jay Cutler to be too enthused about facing a strong Chargers front with so few fans expected in the stands for his Dolphins debut. That Miami defensive front is no joke, however.

Chargers 20, Dolphins 16

- New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (-10): There is very little chance I pick the Jets to win any game this year. I’m sure as hell not going to deviate in Oakland. Jets fans will want Heidi to preempt the coverage of this impending massacre.

Raiders 34, Jets 10

- Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos (+1.5): I played out this matchup in my head several times. Each time I wound up with Ezekiel Elliott and the Dallas offensive line being the top unit and too much for Trevor Siemian to overcome, though the Broncos have the ability to shut down the Dallas attack. Dak needs to be on his game. I think he will be just enough to beat Von Miller and a stingy Denver defense.

Cowboys 21, Broncos 18

- New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (+4): Do you really think the Patriots are going to open at 0-2 for the first time since 2001? Against a Saints defense which got lit up in the opener? Me either.

Patriots 37, Saints 29

- Washington at Los Angeles Rams (+1.5): I’ll ride the Jared Goff improvement bandwagon for another week. Having said that, I think the Skins are the better team and probably should win. I like the Rams special teams to make a big impact in this one, too.

Rams 27, Skins 24

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-13): The 12th man vs. Brian Hoyer. Don’t overthink this one, folks. The Seattle OL is an embarrassment, but they’re not THAT bad.

Seahawks 22, 49ers 9

Monday Night

- Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-5): Kenny “Hotel, Motel” Golladay Inn and the comeback Lions made quite an impression in the opener, lighting up the Cardinals with a precise passing attack from Matthew Stafford and a surprising stoutness from the defensive front. The Giants stunk up the joint in primetime and their offensive tackle situation is not an easy fix.

Now for the cold reality check for the Lions. They have lost five Week 2 games in a row, four of them after winning the opener. Even though the Giants haven’t topped 14 points in their last 7 games, I think they right the ship at home against a Detroit team which doesn’t have much pass rush. Beware the Matthew Stafford comeback, however…

Giants 30, Lions 22

College Games

Louisville 39, Clemson 31

San Diego State 26, Stanford 24

USC 46, Texas 21

Western Michigan 36, Idaho 30 in a game I’ll be attending in Kalamazoo

Oregon 44, Wyoming 33 in the last game where anyone will consider Josh Allen a viable top-flight QB

LSU 25, Mississippi State 18