We’re deep enough into the season now where many teams have long been eliminated from playoff contention. Those teams are tougher to forecast; do the players mail it in or do they keep fighting? We even had our first coaching casualty with Jeff Fisher in Los Angeles, whose Rams paid the first-class postage on the season weeks ago.

Last week: 11-5 despite missing four of the first five on the list. 132-69 on the season, with ties counted as losses.

Thursday Night

- Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5): This was going to be the night Rams coach Jeff Fisher set the record for most losses by a head man in NFL history. Alas, the Rams put Fisher out of his own misery by firing him Monday.

Interim coach John Fassel had just two days to get his new charges ready for a road trip to Seattle, the toughest place to play in the NFL. While the Rams have had recent success and their strength (the defensive line) matches up nicely against Seattle’s biggest weakness (offensive line), it’s asking a lot for a career special teams coach to draw up a winning game plan on the fly. Dumping the archaic Fisher, who did his damndest to recreate the 2010 Detroit Lions (who went 6-10) in Los Angeles, gives them enough of an emotional lift to cover however.

Seahawks 30, Rams 17

Sunday Best

- New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3.5): If you have the impression the Broncos have Tom Brady’s number, you’re not wrong…

Of course, this is not a playoff game. Well not for the Patriots anyway; New England is comfortably ahead in the AFC East. It is a de facto playoff game for the Broncos, who are on the outside looking into the playoff window right now and desperately need a win.

Expect a lot of pressure from Denver as they try to disrupt Brady and the New England passing game. No team does a better job generating disruption, but to beat Brady they’ll need to translate that disruption into production. Methinks Brady got his brainless throw for the month out of the way last week and plays sharp against Denver’s gritty, swift defense.

Patriots 24, Broncos 20

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5): Dallas is coming off a loss where Dak Prescott and the offense sputtered against a Giants' defense that controlled the intermediate routes quite well and did a fine job tackling. Now they play the Buccaneers, who have the league’s most underrated defense. No team has given up fewer points, yards or first downs over the five weeks than Tampa Bay.

The key here is for Dallas to land some big play haymakers, to take advantage of any lapses. Prescott did that just once in New York. He and Zeke Elliott will have to hit more home runs but also more singles to set up the big strikes. It won’t be easy.

The flip side is the Cowboys are well-stocked to slow down Jameis Winston and Mike Evans. The Tampa pitch-and-catch combo tends to run hot and cold, and they are due for a warmup. Tampa also has the best receiving tight end you’ve never heard of in Cameron Brate, with his 72 percent catch rate, 6 TDs and uncanny ability to get open in the 5-to-10 yard range. The Bucs will need some home runs of their own, and that’s the part of the forecast which clouds their chances. They are fully capable, as they’ve demonstrated in the 5-game win streak, but only scoring 16 points against a bad (though improving) Saints defense doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

Cowboys 19, Buccaneers 14

- Detroit Lions at New York Giants (+4.5): You might scoff at seeing Detroit listed as a featured game, but if the season ended today the Lions would be the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Giants are the top NFC Wild Card and that doesn’t figure to change. In fact, the winner of this game will have to suffer a major series of unexpected and unfortunate events to miss out on the playoffs.

Matthew Stafford’s injured middle finger looked good enough in Wednesday’s practice to have confidence enough in his ability, but the Lions will have to run the ball effectively to take some of the pressure off his wounded digit. The Giants have one of the stingiest run defenses in the league, rating third at ceding just 3.6 yards per carry. Between that and Detroit’s frustrating inability to play four strong quarters, I favor the home team. But if the game is within 7 points with less than 5 minutes to go, I expect Stafford, Matt Prater and the most proficient comeback team in NFL history to pull it out.

Giants 30, Lions 21

Sunday Rest

- Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5): The Chiefs found their in-season wild card difference-maker in Tyreek Hill. The speedy rookie has provided a major lift as both a return man and a deep threat receiver. His presence is liberating Alex Smith too, and not just by Smith actually looking deeper. Hill’s speed improves the spacing for the underneath routes which Smith historically prefers. Tennessee’s secondary is getting yeoman work from rookies Leshaun Sims, Kalan Reed and Kevin Byard, but this is a tough matchup for the inexperienced Titans.

Chiefs 28, Titans 20

- Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5): The Vikings defense should have a field day with a Colts offense that is as uncoordinated as you can possibly get with an A-level QB like Andrew Luck at the helm. After watching Indy’s loss to Houston last week, it’s hard to fathom the Colts winning another game this year. They’re the most poorly coached team outside of San Francisco. Even so, they’ve still got a chance against a Minnesota offense with no consistency or reliability. If they can get a couple of beneficial pass interference calls like the one which kept them close to Houston last week, Luck and his motley crew could effectively end Minnesota’s season.

Vikings 27, Colts 21

- Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-9): Will the Browns crack the win column? It’s doubtful, but if Rex Ryan gets too conservative on offense his team might have trouble outscoring the downtrodden visitors from I-90 West.

Bills 20, Browns 13

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5): Cincinnati could be getting back several wounded players. They’ll need every hand on deck to stay with Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and a Steelers offense which is humming along nicely. Expect hot tempers and some post-whistle flags. As long as James Harrison and his mates control themselves, they can survive the jungle.

Steelers 31, Bengals 24

- Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+2.5): In the intro I mentioned it can be hard to see which teams will still play hard and which ones are mailing it in. The Jets are an exception. The check is in the mail, and this game is too important for Miami even with Ryan Tannehill hobbled.

Dolphins 27, Jets 17

- Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5): Baltimore will sorely miss corner Jimmy Smith, who left the loss to New England with a nasty ankle injury…just not so much this week against an Eagles offense without a featured receiver or much of a passing threat with rookie Carson Wentz. The No. 2 overall pick still has his moments and the long-term prognosis is strong, but he’s showing he’s a rookie from the FCS level with precious little experience.

Ravens 20, Eagles 13

- New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5): I’m banking on karma here. The Cardinals cut underwhelming wideout Michael Floyd this week after he was arrested for a DUI. The Cardinals have a myriad of problems in what has been a lost season, but standing up for organizational integrity when a player clearly isn’t committed is a positive sign.

Cardinals 26, Saints 21

- Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (+2.5): This is a pretty important game for Oakland. Coming off a loss and with a couple extra days of rest, they need to come out strong and score a convincing win over a last-place Chargers team trending in the wrong direction. The spread here being less than a field goal indicates the books have real doubts about Oakland’s legitimacy. Hmmm…

Raiders 32, Chargers 28

- Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+6.5): Game-time temps are projected in single digits and the wind chill on the southwestern shore of Lake Michigan could be well into the negatives. While normally this wouldn’t seem to be a disadvantage for Green Bay, which sits some 200 miles north, but normally Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have a gimpy calf. Muscle injuries, even minor ones, are dramatically exacerbated in the cold. Factor in the Chicago defense, which continues to generate a lot of pressure and has not quit despite myriad injuries, and you have my forecast for the Any Given Sunday game this week. The Packers’ declining run defense is in for a major test with Jordan Howard, who in any normal season would be running away with top rookie RB.

Bears 20, Packers 17

- Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5): I will continue my string of not picking the Jaguars as long as Blake Bortles remains at QB. This game is a great example of why; Bortles has thrown a pick-six in each of the last three meetings with the Texans. If he avoids a four-peat the Jaguars should have enough defense to cover.

Texans 23, Jaguars 19

- San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (-14): The Falcons hung 49 on LA last week. They could top that fitting figure here.

Falcons 44, 49ers 22

Monday Night

- Carolina Panthers at Washington (-4.5): Is it wrong that I’m more intrigued by what Cam Newton will wear to his post-game press conference than watching the actual game itself? Newton figures to be sullen, perhaps surly, after his efforts come up short in matching what Kirk Cousins and the high-powered Washington passing attack do to the Panthers leaky defense. Washington’s own defense will need to play better on third downs or else Newton could engineer some lengthy drives, but the Josh Norman revenge game goes to the talented corner’s new team over the one who refused to pay him.

Washington 30, Panthers 27